NBA Systems 2014/15

[rolltide]

a couple more to consider with OKC:

1) when Westbrook plays in a game vs unrested opponent that beat them last h2h meeting they are 11-1 SUATS
2) from ks newsletter today ... OKC are 13-0 SUATS seeking same season revenge in a game they failed to cover by double digits as a fav

 

[Biz]

Monday, Dec 22

34:UNDER both teams over .500, one in bad form, high total - LA Clippers/San Antonio UNDER 201.5
O/U: 12-33-2 (26.7%)

40: OPPOSE game 15+ 4 in 5 home vs unrested - Utah -9
ATS: 166-275-12 (37.6%)

 

[tripleh]

Bulls home vs unrested - away TT under Play on Toronto TT Under
Mavs vs Southeast, OVERS (31-13, 1-2 in 2014) ​Play on Mavs over 208

 

[LeftyRosenthal]

Monday, Dec 22

34:UNDER both teams over .500, one in bad form, high total - LA Clippers/San Antonio UNDER 201.5
O/U: 12-33-2 (26.7%)

40: OPPOSE game 15+ 4 in 5 home vs unrested - Utah -9
ATS: 166-275-12 (37.6%)

Utah is +9 at Memphis...

 

[rolltide]

thx guys. GL tonight. just to put a # next to raptors

08:05 PM	507	Toronto Raptors			+4	-110	o		+155	o		Ov	201	-105	o		Ov	98½	-115		Un	98½	-115
508	Chicago Bulls			-4	-110	o		-175	o		Un	201	-115	o		Ov	102½	-115		Un	102½	-115

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MON NBA:
Utah +9
Toronto TT under 98.5
ATL/DAL over 208
LAC/SAS under 201.5

 

[DT32]

Tuesday

Unrested team off back to back big spread wins UNDER (28-62) - Hawks under 205.5, Hornets under 197.5

 

[rolltide]

UNDER game 11+ very tired team in 6-in-8 spot, neither team avg 108+. 26-70-1 o/u ... 2-0 2014 (LAC/ATL under 205.5)
subset: tired team played OVER last game, 11-35-1 o/u, 0-0 2014 (LAC/ATL under 205.5)
super subset: tired team last game over by 16+. 1-14 o/u, 0-0 2014 (LAC/ATL under 205.5)




tons of team specific stuff tonight so we'll have to sort through them. i can post in a bit unless hhh beats me to it. Here's a new one:


UNDER 2nd of b2b after playing Rockets. 16-47-1 o/u ... 1-2 2014 (OKC/POR under 200.5)
subset: away and not off blowout. 7-37-1 o/u ... 1-1 2014 (OKC/POR under 200.5)

 

[rolltide]

here are the other team-specifics (hhh, i didn't do the rest of your list so if you can run those?). we'll have to decide on which to post and play so input welcome unless there are ones from hhh and biz's list to confirm or oppose.

UNDER, Thunder vs unrested. 5-17-1 o/u (already on this above) - also 1-8 o/u H2H


UNDER, Nets vs unrested. 5-12-1 o/u with 2 of the overs in OT...2 OT and 3 OT to be exact. either way very small sample but when you omit the OT games, 3-14-1 o/u going with avg of 192.


OPPOSE, Charlotte in 2nd of b2b games. 20-47-1 ATS
subset: cha in 4/5 spot. 4-19 ATS

 

[rolltide]

UNDER, bad team on 3+ game ats losing streak vs winning team, 27-65-1 o/u, 4-4 2014 (MIN/CLE under 209)
subset: really bad team winning <20%, 19-50-3 o/u, 2-2 2014 (MIN/CLE under 209)


note: on the subset these bad teams (min) avg just 88.6 ppg and sitting on 98 team total tonight. just 11 times in these 72 games has a team in this situation reached 99 and over is 9-1-1 in that position. so team total under looks like a decent bet (or 2nd bet) in this spot as if they hit 99 the game is going over anyway. When they fail to reach 99+ the game total goes under at a 10-49-2 o/u rate. much better chance at winning both than losing both (ok, i just jinxed this one)

here's what we have so far for Wed:

WED:
LAC/ATL under 205.5
OKC/POR under 200.5
CLE/MIN under 209
Minnesota TT under 98
CHA/MIL under 197.5

considering:
Milwaukee -5.5
BLYN/DEN under 199

 

[Biz]

26: PLAY ON high scoring team as away dog after big HT deficit - Portland +6
ATS: 69-29-2 (70.4%)

30: OPPOSE team avenging blowout home loss after close home loss - Phoenix -1.5
ATS: 45-91-2 (33.1%)

SUBSET: BTB
2-22 (8.3%)

 

[rolltide]

did HHH's....

OPPOSE away dogs after scoring 102+ as a small fav or dog in a home blowout win, and not playing a terrible team. 29-65-3 ATS, 3-2 2014 (on Milwaukee -5.5)
subset: opponent rest 2+. 8-23 ATS (on Milwaukee -5.5)


OPPOSE dec non-conf team in a 4/5 spot. 15-30-1 ATS, 0-1 2014 (on Brooklyn -2)

WED:
LAC/ATL under 205.5
OKC/POR under 200.5
CLE/MIN under 209
Minnesota TT under 98
CHA/MIL under 197.5
Milwaukee -5.5
Portland +6
Phoenix -1.5

 

[Biz]

Brooklyn no play?

 

[savage55]

LAC/ATL total up to 207.5-208.. I bet it at 205.5 I hate it when this happens cuz there really is no way to get off of it. Maybe I will just bet it again at 208 and hope I win them both

 

[tripleh]

Does team specific on Thunder cancel out Portland play or does Portland play override the team specific?

 

[rolltide]

LAC/ATL total up to 207.5-208.. I bet it at 205.5 I hate it when this happens cuz there really is no way to get off of it. Maybe I will just bet it again at 208 and hope I win them both

well, obviously that's not an ideal situation as systems get graded at closing line which is going to be 209. so definitely can lose in here and win in closing line (like Portland u201.5 the other day) so I'm not real pleased about it either

not really sure how you want me to respond? it is what it is...if i could predict line moves i'd be pretty happy. IMO, bet another 1/2 of the stake you put on it originally but my guess is that if you wanted until game time to bet most of these you'd be losing points 2/3 of the time. Moves like 205.5 to 209 is troubling but i'm in for another .50u

hhh/biz you are both correct. Portland gets canceled by OKC great ATS vs unrested and Brooklyn i simply missed.

WED:
LAC/ATL under 205.5
OKC/POR under 200.5
CLE/MIN under 209
Minnesota TT under 98
CHA/MIL under 197.5
Milwaukee -5.5
Brooklyn -2
Phoenix -1.5

 

[savage55]

well, obviously that's not an ideal situation as systems get graded at closing line which is going to be 209. so definitely can lose in here and win in closing line (like Portland u201.5 the other day) so I'm not real pleased about it either

not really sure how you want me to respond? it is what it is...if i could predict line moves i'd be pretty happy. IMO, bet another 1/2 of the stake you put on it originally but my guess is that if you wanted until game time to bet most of these you'd be losing points 2/3 of the time. Moves like 205.5 to 209 is troubling but i'm in for another .50u

hhh/biz you are both correct. Portland gets canceled by OKC great ATS vs unrested and Brooklyn i simply missed.

WED:
LAC/ATL under 205.5
OKC/POR under 200.5
CLE/MIN under 209
Minnesota TT under 98
CHA/MIL under 197.5
Milwaukee -5.5
Brooklyn -2
Phoenix -1.5

I agree with you here RT. Usually Im ahead of the line movement the opposite direction. I was expecting it to go down to 204 or something. Im not going to stop betting these early and this is rare for line to go up 3.5 points b4 tip. shit happens and hopefully we win both

 

[rolltide]

OPPOSE team seeking home revenge after a dog cover, 31-49 (on WAS -4.5)
subset: non-division, 23-43 ATS (on WAS -4.5)


PLAY ON away fav off non-cover vs home off cover. 134-72-4 ATS (on WAS -4.5)


OVER with two teams that went over by 20+ last game. 59-36-2 o/u (SAS/OKC over 196)


OPPOSE and OVER home team that lost big HT lead last game. 79-39-2 o/u, 71-46-3 ATS (on Miami +6, on MIA/CLE over 195)


PLAY ON high scoring away dog after terrible 1H last game. 70-29-2 ATS (on Golden State +1.5)


THU:
Washington -4.5
SAS/OKC over 196
Miami +6
MIA/CLE over 195
Golden State +1.5


GL & Merry Christmas

 

[Biz]

Thursday, Dec 25

23: PLAY ON away fav off non-cover vs home off cover - Washington -5
ATS: 134-72-4 (65%)

29: OPPOSE and OVER home team after losing big HT lead - Cleveland -6, OVER 195
ATS: 46-71-3 (39.3%)
O/U: 79-39-2 (66.9%)

26: PLAY ON high scoring team as away dog after big HT deficit - Golden St +1.5
ATS: 70-29-2 (70.7%)

 

[Biz]

OPPOSE team seeking home revenge after a dog cover, 31-49 (on WAS -4.5)
subset: non-division, 23-43 ATS (on WAS -4.5)


PLAY ON away fav off non-cover vs home off cover. 134-72-4 ATS (on WAS -4.5)


OVER with two teams that went over by 20+ last game. 59-36-2 o/u (SAS/OKC over 196)


OPPOSE and OVER home team that lost big HT lead last game. 79-39-2 o/u, 71-46-3 ATS (on Miami +6, on MIA/CLE over 195)


PLAY ON high scoring away dog after terrible 1H last game. 70-29-2 ATS (on Golden State +1.5)


THU:
Washington -4.5
SAS/OKC over 196
Miami +6
MIA/CLE over 195
Golden State +1.5


GL & Merry Christmas

Oppose Miami, play ON Cleveland.

Merry Christmas Tide

 

[rolltide]

good catch, biz. thanks!

THU:
Washington -4.5
SAS/OKC over 196
Cleveland -6
MIA/CLE over 195
Golden State +1.5