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That was a good game
76ers-Knicks
 

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76ers are favored to win the series.
I'm surprised at that
 

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Heat's Jimmy Butler expected to miss several weeks.​

Miami Heat star Jimmy Butler is expected to be sidelined several weeks with a right MCL injury suffered in Wednesday's play-in tournament loss to the Philadelphia 76ers, sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Butler was hurt on the final play of the first quarter in Philadelphia. He remained in the game but scored a total of 12 points the rest of the way on 3-for-14 shooting as Miami surrendered a 12-point halftime lead in Philadelphia's 105-104 victory.
The Heat will host the Chicago Bulls on Friday night, with the winner securing the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference and a first-round playoff series matchup against the Boston Celtics.
After leaking out for a potential fast-break layup in the first quarter, Butler tried to fake out Philadelphia's Kelly Oubre Jr. to attempt to make a layup, only to have his knee buckle after it appeared Oubre landed on it, causing Butler to fall to the floor in pain.
Butler said after the game that he would have an MRI on Thursday, adding "I hope that I wake up tomorrow and can still stick-and-move. Right now, I can't say that's the case."
 

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Friday night
Key players out of the line up angle
No Zion for the Pels
No Butter for the Heat
 

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IMO Philly Would Have Been The #2 Seed In The East If Embiid Didn't Miss So Many Games So That Could Be The Main Reason They're Favored Over NY .
 

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Kawhi Leonard still battling inflammation, remains questionable​

LOS ANGELES -- LA Clippers All-Star Kawhi Leonard still has inflammation in his surgically repaired right knee, and his status is questionable for Game 1 against the Dallas Mavericks.
Lawrence Frank, LA Clippers president of basketball operations, said Leonard has yet to go through contact before Thursday's practice. Frank said Leonard's right knee, which has undergone surgeries to repair a torn ACL and meniscus, is structurally "solid and intact" but that the Clippers franchise star is experiencing "some very, very stubborn inflammation."
He's doing everything," Frank said of Leonard treating his knee. "Our medical staff is doing everything to get the inflammation down so he can play. Progress has been made, but more progress needs -- the inflammation needs to continue to reduce so he can do functional basketball movements."
Frank added, "There is no gamesmanship here and we're very sensitive of the fact that questions are going to be asked and want to be as transparent as possible. It's OK to say what the truth is. It's unpredictable. We're hoping it's trending in the right direction. It's a very accurate statement. When it gets to a point where he's able to play, then that's when he'll be back on the court."
Frank said there's still a couple of days before Sunday's Game 1 to get Leonard ready for the start of the postseason. Leonard, though, has not played in a game since March 31 and missed the last eight games of the regular season.
"So in terms of based on where we're heading, is it possible he could play?" Frank said Thursday. "Sure, it's possible. It's Thursday. With each day we'll know more and more."
Asked whether Leonard had an injection to help with inflammation, Frank said he would not go into any details about any specific treatments.
Frank said Leonard has gone through all the mental portions of practice from film study to personnel but had been kept out of the contact portions.
"Obviously if he's not healthy to play at a certain moment then he won't be out there," Frank said. "Since Kawhi's tenure, when Kawhi is healthy, he plays. And some things you can't control, regardless of how meticulous he is with his body and everything that goes into playing. You can only control what you can control and you kind of got to surrender to the things you can't.
"We would never put Kawhi or anyone on the court if there's grave risk or there's risk for future injury. We're hopeful that this inflammation will get reduced and he'll be back on the court as quickly as possible. But you can't predict something that's unpredictable."
Leonard underwent surgery in July 2021 to repair a torn ACL he suffered in his right knee during a second-round series against Utah. And then in June, Leonard underwent a cleanup procedure to repair a torn meniscus suffered in the same knee during last season's first round against Phoenix.
 

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Injury luck is too often discounted in praising postseason success. This year’s Play-In Tournament has offered distinct reminders before the playoffs even begin, most notably with Zion Williamson’s hamstring injury.
Losing Williamson obviously lessens the New Orleans Pelicans’ chances of snagging the last playoff spot, but they are also going up against a shorthanded Sacramento Kings rotation, one down two key contributors. These absences lessen the quality of basketball, but they also increase the holes for us to exploit to find betting value on specific Kings vs. Pelicans bets.
In theory, Brandon Ingram should get more looks in Zion Williamson’s absence. The dynamic power forward took 27 field goals on Tuesday night before he had to leave with just minutes left. Ingram took only 12.
But even with Williamson sidelined, Ingram’s minutes will not jump a ton. He is recovering from injury and was held to 25 minutes against the Lakers. That may tick upward, but Ingram will still be on a proverbial pitch count.
To make matters worse, Ingram has not looked like his usual prolific-scoring self since he returned from a knee bruise. Simply enough, he has not been as aggressive as would be expected with these stakes. Even New Orleans Pelicans head coach Willie Green acknowledged on Thursday that Ingram is “knocking off some rust.” It has been only two games, but he has shot just 47.6% in those games. Most concerning, in two games of massive importance, Ingram has taken only 21 total shots.
Before his injury, Ingram was taking 16 field goals per game, including 3.8 threes, compared to four total in these two games of note. On that kind of workload, Ingram was averaging 20.9 points. Expecting him to come within a point of that average while he is barely shooting the ball — at least relatively speaking — is simply foolish. The books have misplaced this faith in Ingram.
That faith looks even more absurd when remembering the Sacramento Kings have defenders like Harrison Barnes and De’Aaron Fox to hound Ingram.
When healthy, Brandon Ingram is a joy to watch. He is a pure scorer. But he is not healthy, he lost some lower-body strength during his four-week absence, and he does not look like the matchup nightmare that has defined his career. Zion’s absence will only highlight those struggles.
Without Williamson, the Pelicans do not have anyone who can defend Domantas Sabonis. He is too strong for Ingram and too fast for Jonas Valanciunas; he is too tall for 6-foot-7 Herb Jones and too savvy for Larry Nance Jr.’s athleticism.
Golden State had Draymond Green and Trayce Jackson-Davis to pester Sabonis, holding him to 16 points. He took only two free throws, down from his season average of five. If Sabonis had drawn a few more fouls against overmatched defenders, he would have cleared this points prop. He will face overmatched defenders in New Orleans.
Sabonis’s game is not exactly high-paced. Without Williamson, the Pelicans’ offense may not be, either. It played slower without him this season, by about 1.5 possessions per game. Add in the stress of this single-elimination game and doubting this total makes too much sense.

Kings vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis​

  • Zion Williamson’s injury jumped this spread to favoring Sacramento by 1 or 1.5, depending on your sportsbook, after it opened favoring New Orleans by 2. It should be mentioned that the Pelicans’ net rating was actually half a point better in 12 games without Williamson this regular season than in the 70 games with him, the defensive improvement outpacing the offensive step back.
  • That difference without Williamson helps explain the total falling to 211.5 after opening at 218.5.
  • In the nine games to close the regular season since Malik Monk’s injury, the Kings went 6-3 against the spread and six of the nine games cashed their Unders.

Kings vs Pelicans trend​

New Orleans went 8-4 ATS without Williamson this season.
 

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The Miami Heat almost pulled off the upset against the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday, but thanks to a legacy game from Nicolas Batum, their only path to the playoffs left is by defeating the Chicago Bulls on Friday.
Can the Heat overcome Jimmy Butler's injury and advance to take on the Boston Celtics?
This is a tricky spot for the Miami Heat, and you wonder where their heads will be as an organization. Not only did they blow a lead against the Philadelphia 76ers and a first-round matchup against the New York Knicks, but if they defeat the Chicago Bulls on Friday, they will have to face the Boston Celtics without their best player: Jimmy Butler.
Butler will be out for several weeks after injuring his MCL in the first game of the Play-In Tournament. If this were any other franchise, I could see them potentially going 1-2-3 Cancun and calling it a season, but this is Heat Culture. They won't go away that easily. All of the attention is on the Butler injury, but the Bulls also experienced a crucial loss on Wednesday, and that's why I'm going after the Heat on the spread at -1.5.
Alex Caruso, one of the NBA's premier perimeter defenders, suffered a significant ankle sprain against the Atlanta Hawks when he was truck-sticked by his own teammate, Andre Drummond, in the open court. Butler is a big loss for the Heat, but it won't be as magnified if Caruso can't suit up for the Bulls. The Heat struggle to score in the half-court, and if they were without Butler and the Bulls were able to deploy Caruso on Tyler Herro, this would be a big problem for the offense.
The Heat will survive and advance because of their favorable matchups with the Bulls. Bam Adebayo will be able to take advantage of Nikola Vucevic on the interior, and Herro will be able to generate offense on the perimeter without Caruso at the point of the attack. The Heat should also have Duncan Robinson back after he was apparently cleared to play on Wednesday but never actually saw any minutes.
The Butler loss stings, but the number is adjusted for it. The Heat should be closer to a 3-point favorite, and there is a chance they get some reinforcements in Robinson and maybe even Terry Rozier.
If the Heat are going to win without Butler, they will need either Adebayo or Herro to step up on the offensive end. Adebayo has an advantageous matchup against Vucevic. I mean, I just watched Clint Capela score 22 points against the Bulls on Wednesday. I expect Adebayo's usage to be much higher than normal because of the Butler injury and the Vucevic matchup. Adebayo has been trading at around 18.5 points with Butler in the lineup, and with Butler out, we're only looking at a 2-point difference.

Bulls vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
The Heat opened as a 2.5-point favorite on FanDuel, but once the news dropped that Butler would officially miss this game, we saw this line start to move down.
The total opened at 208 at FanDuel, and we have seen it move three points toward the Under to 205.
There are still several players tagged as questionable for Friday's game, including Caruso, Ayo Dosunmu, and Rozier, so as we get more clarity on their injuries, we should continue to see the total and spread move.

Bulls vs Heat trend​

The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 55 of their last 100 games (+14.25 Units / 9% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Heat.
 

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