Nba parlay partnership

[tony1]

NBA PARLAY PARTNERSHIP
Parlays for 11/01
Parlay #1..BOS/HOU-8.5 / TOR/ORL+6.5
(1/4).....(4/16)
(2/3).....(4/16)
(2/4).....(3/16)
Parlay #2...DEN/OKC+6.5 / CHI/MN+3.5
(1/4).....(4/16)
(2/3).....(3/16)
(2/4)....(1/16)
Parlay #3 ...IND/ATL-10.5 / DAL/NO+1.5
(1/4)....(3/16)
(2/3)....(3/16)
(2/4)...(1/16)
Parlay #4 ..BKN/DET-3.5 / MIA/PHI+8.5
(1/4)....(2/16)
(2/3)....(2/16)
(2/4)....(2/16)

**N/A ...NO PARLAYS AVAILABLE FOR THE DAY
**(X/16) STEP OF THE PROGRESSION

Total units won.... 1.5
series wins ..........6
series losses........0
series pending......10

SUMMARY: Today we have 4 parlays. I have posted daily updates for a couple days as promised to help you understand it better. I have posted the explanation of the system plus these updates. I know this very different from other systems and it is difficult to do but I had great success with it last season. I had no series losses but two series went to the 14th step of the progression. You could do a trial run this season before you go live with it.

GOOD LUCK!

 

[xtatik]

Thanks for this Tony1, I think I get it now. Last question: Is there any strategy you use to figure out what two games you are going to pick in any one specific parlay? Or any random combo should work? I was thinking perhaps the biggest and smallest spreads?

Thanks in advance,

x

 

[tony1]

My first post of this system a couple years ago I did use the high and low spreads. We used all 4 combinations not 3 and it had only 12 steps in the progression. This updated version put emphasis on the home team with 16 steps in the progression. You can try the high and low spreads but last season I did not and it had very good results.

 

[tripleh]

Tony,
Question for you regarding scenario where my 2/3 is on the 7th progression (.71 units) and my 2/4 is on the 8th progression (.98 units). Am I better off playing the "2" straight up, instead of parlaying with "3" and "4"?
Scenarios:
"2" loses - 1.69 unit loss
"2/3" wins - .826 unit win (.71x 2.6 minus .98)
"2/4" wins - 1.838 unit win (.98 x 2.6 minus .71)

If I straight bet "2" for 1.69 units at -110, I'd win 1.536 units, while the average of the other two scenarios with "2" winning is 1.332 units.
If the straight bet on "2" won, as did the "3", then I would end the "2/3" progression and take the "2/4" series to the 9th progression.

This seems logical to me, but I don't know if I'm missing something here (outside of "don't play systems with 16 progressions")

 

[tony1]

Comparison of the progression between the nba parlay partnership and the nba road system that posted on this forum for years. Parlay partnership has 16 steps and the road system has 6 steps.

Lets simply it by using a $ 10 unit size... (based on -110)
NBA PARLAY PARTNERSHIP
Size of bet
1. $1.00
2. $1.40
3. $1.90
4. $2.70
5. $3.70
6. $5.10
7. $7.10
8. $9.80
9. $13.60
10. $18.80
11. $26.00
12. $36.00
13. $49.90
14. $60.10
15. $95.70
16. $132.50

NBA ROAD SYSTEM
Size of bet
1. $11.00
2. $23.00
3. $48.50
4. $102.00
5. $214.00
6. $408.50

Your total risk is 2/3 less with 16 steps with the parlay system compared to only 6 steps with the road system.

Summary: Last season I had 2 combinations go to the 14 th step of the progression. The main purpose of the parlay system is to give you width and depth with less risk by spreading units over several parlays with 1/4 units. A $50 unit would 5 times the above numbers and a $100 unit would be 10 times the above numbers.
RECOMMENDATION: I would suggest to do a test run this season then go live next season if successful. I also would suggest to go small and double the unit size each of the following seasons.

 

[tony1]

Tony,
Question for you regarding scenario where my 2/3 is on the 7th progression (.71 units) and my 2/4 is on the 8th progression (.98 units). Am I better off playing the "2" straight up, instead of parlaying with "3" and "4"?
Scenarios:
"2" loses - 1.69 unit loss
"2/3" wins - .826 unit win (.71x 2.6 minus .98)
"2/4" wins - 1.838 unit win (.98 x 2.6 minus .71)

If I straight bet "2" for 1.69 units at -110, I'd win 1.536 units, while the average of the other two scenarios with "2" winning is 1.332 units.
If the straight bet on "2" won, as did the "3", then I would end the "2/3" progression and take the "2/4" series to the 9th progression.

This seems logical to me, but I don't know if I'm missing something here (outside of "don't play systems with 16 progressionst")

I am not sure about what you are asking but I would follow the rules of the system. The 7th and 8th step of the progression is LESS than the 1st step of the nba road system as detailed in the above post.

 

[tony1]

DATES FOR THE LAST PARLAY COMBINATIONS OF THE SEASON 2014-15

IMPORTANT...The last series of the season for each combination of the 4 parlays is when each has only 16 plays left.

Fourth parlay... any combination of the 4th parlay ends with a cover starting on MARCH 15.

Third parlay.....any combination of the 3rd parlay ends with a cover starting on MARCH 24

Second parlay...any combination of the 2nd parlay ends with a cover starting on MARCH 27

First parlay.......any combination of the 1st parlay ends with a cover starting on MARCH 30

THE SEASON IS OVER WHEN THE LAST COMBINATION OF PARLAY 1 MAKES A COVER.

 

[Depp]

Hi Tony. The road system is still working. It am really glad you opened my eyes to it. The parlay partnership is complex for my simple mind. BOL this year!

 

[tony1]

Hi Tony. The road system is still working. It am really glad you opened my eyes to it. The parlay partnership is complex for my simple mind. BOL this year!

Thanks for the comments about the road system. I had a good run with it! No losing seasons for 9 years. It is great to see that there is still interest in it.

 

[tony1]

NBA PARLAY PARTNERSHIP UPDATE
NOVEMBER 2014


TOTAL PROGRESSION STEPS FOR THE 4 PARLAYS
1. 12
2. 17
3. 7
4. 6
5. 7
6. 4
7. 7
8. 4
9. 2
10. 0
11.1
12. 0
13. 0
14. 0
15. 0
16. 0


Series record thru NOV...67 series wins and 0 losses.
Units: 16.75
Pending series...10

Series record thru 12/5...79 series won and 0 losses.
Pending series ... 8


Summary: Last season I used the first games listed at vegas insider with no cherry picking. This season I am using home consensus at Covers as a means of verification starting on 11/2. Parlays from 10/29 to 11/1 are posted. The majority of the games are matched with half-points to avoid pushes. Example: Go to Covers....scores and matchups.....consensus picks. Example: The first two games listed for home team consensus is used for the first parlay and the next two games for the second parlay and etc.

I understand that system is very different from my NBA road system but again the purpose of this is to lower risk but give you about the same number of units as the NBA road system. Although the system has no losses last season and no losses thru NOV of this season, I am still not satisfied with it. My plans is to move from using any games to the same concept as the NBA road system.

 

[tony1]

NBA PARLAY PARTNERSHIP UPDATE THRU DEC 2014

TOTAL PROGRESSION STEPS FOR THE 4 PARLAYS
1. 24
2. 30
3. 20
4. 13
5. 13
6. 9
7. 8
8. 5
9. 2
10. 2
11.3
12. 2
13. 0
14. 2
15. 1
16. 1


Series record thru DEC...135 series wins and 0 losses.
Units: 33.75
Pending series...8

SUMMARY: No losses but I had one series go to the last play. This is with no handicapping. I plan to try this similar to my NBA road system with a few changes. I believe my results will improve with this handicapping method.

VERIFICATION FOR THIS SEASON SEE POST #35

 

[OzCap]

Tony
Always appreciate out of the box thinking and ways to spread risk. Looking at your last post - how do you have a "0" at 'game 13', but have games that reached "14"? Just trying to understand.

Cheers
Oz

 

[OzCap]

Tony
Also, if I understand your progression correctly, if you were to lose game 16 of your progression you would lose 46.4 units in total (which would require 186 series wins to cover) - thus needing about a 99.5% win rate (a 186-1 record) to break even.

By my math, a blind parlay system (for a single line of the chase) would have about a 1% fail rate, which is twice what your method could tolerate - as such you would look at, roughly, a -21.7% ROI.

Wishing you success, but just wanted to give you a heads up on the math (at least from my perspective).

Cheers
Oz

 

[tony1]

Tony
Always appreciate out of the box thinking and ways to spread risk. Looking at your last post - how do you have a "0" at 'game 13', but have games that reached "14"? Just trying to understand.

Cheers
Oz

The numbers only show the level of progression that the series is covered. Thru Dec no series was covered on the 13th level.