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Dose: Bayless Going Bonkers
So this is it. All of your hard work and avoidance of all things reality has come to this. And adding an interesting wrinkle to the matter is the NCAA Championship Game, which has caused the NBA to go dark for Monday with no games. Now for some unknown reason Yahoo! decides to have their weekly lineup deadline on Sunday night, but most other sites wait until Tuesday for lineup cards to be scribbled in. The latter case could prove invaluable for owners hedging on injured players and shutdown risks, while in the former, you're sacrificing chickens or whatever it is that you crazy people do to conjure up good luck. Legal note: Don't do that.
As for this Dose, it was written in the wee hours of Sunday night/Monday morning, so be sure to keep up with Rotoworld's NBA Player News page and follow all of us on Twitter at the addresses below:
@docktora
@mattstroup
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Without further ado….
Where exactly do you stand
The standings are as important as anything at this time of year, and as I've alluded to before, I wish more formats would just exclude this week. After all, if the point of this whole exercise is to reduce the luck factor, why should league titles be decided because key players are already fishing with Kenny and Chuck? Until that happens, however, we'll need to deal with the standings as a necessary evil of our pastime.
The standings this year are a mixed bag of good news and bad news compared to past years, as many seeds are already decided and the teams that are on the outside looking in are longshots at this point.
The most likely chance for a team currently qualified for the playoffs to get knocked off exists in Indiana, where the Pacers hold a two-game lead over the flailing Bobcats. The Pacers have four games left, the Bobcats have six games left, and Charlotte might have to dress Paul Silas and Charles Oakley any moment. If Mr. Miyagi was around to magically heal Stephen Jackson's hamstring, I'd be more apt to put stock in them catching the Pacers, though the Pacers at 35-43 are hardly a picture of strength heading into the final week. The Bucks are one game behind the Bobcats, and with an average of five games left to play between Indy and Milwaukee, I'm not holding my breath for any comeback.
In the West, the magic number for No. 8 New Orleans to clinch a playoff spot is two, with Houston sitting in the No. 9 slot a total of three games back with five games to play for both teams. Memphis is actually tied with the Hornets record-wise at 44-33, but any way you slice it a minor miracle would need to take place for the Rockets to catch either of them. Utah has been eliminated and the Suns are eliminated for all intents and purposes.
As for as seedings and home-court advantage goes, the Spurs have the best record in the league at 58-19, and hit it big when the Lakers lost to the Nuggets on Sunday, giving them a 2.5 game lead over the purple and gold. The Bulls trail the Spurs for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs by 1.5 games, and is one game ahead of the Lakers, 2.5 games ahead of the Heat, and 3.0 games ahead of the Celtics. Dallas struggled this week and fell 2.5 games behind the Lakers in the West, and beyond that, there is very little mobility between the remaining teams for playoff seeding. The Magic, Hawks, and Sixers have virtually wrapped up slots 4-6 (in that order), though the Knicks trail the Sixers by just 1.5 games, and the Pacers are four games back of New York. In the West, aside from being behind the Lakers by 2.5 games, the Mavs also lead the Thunder by 2.5 games, who have a 3.0 game lead over the Nuggets. The Nuggets lead the Blazers by 2.5 games, who are one game ahead of the Hornets and the Grizzlies. After the Blazers put a whooping on the Mavs on Sunday, you can bet they'll be motivated to stay in the six-slot where they will very likely get a rematch with the Mavs in Round 1.
So while the Spurs, Bulls, Lakers, Heat, and Celtics are jockeying for home-court advantage still, and the Blazers, Hornets, and Grizzlies still need wins to secure their position (and also likely want the No. 6 seed to play the Mavs instead of the Lakers or Spurs) – everybody else is playing for pride or licking their wounds in preparation for the playoffs.
Games played alert
4 Games: Celtics, Bobcats, Bulls, Cavs, Nuggets, Pistons, Clippers, Lakers, Knicks, Thunder, Bucks, Nets, Suns, Kings, Raptors, Wizards
3 Games: Hawks, Jazz, Blazers, Spurs, Hornets, Magic, Sixers, Grizzlies, Heat, Wolves, Warriors, Rockets, Pacers, Mavs
Today in Kuester
Just when you thought Today in Kuester was going to syndication, it popped up with a new episode over the weekend, with Rodney Stuckey refusing to re-enter another game on Friday – resulting in him getting benched on Sunday. Now Stuckey is probably in violation of his contract and deserving of a fine or suspension, but who am I to tell you what is going to happen next in Detroit. If you want to tell me that Kuester is going to start Charlie Villanueva at point guard all week, I may actually give it some thought. As it goes, Stuckey is hands off unless he avoids suspension and Kuester goes public with a desire to mend the fences with playing time, and even then he'll be a risk. In the meantime, Will Bynum has started the last two games with Tracy McGrady nursing a back injury, and provided low-end numbers in each game. In a four-game week, owners that are thin at PG should consider using him, though he does come with the standard amounts of Kuester risk.
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Youth in Revolt
I know that Papa Doc was all over this, too, but I'm pretty sure I had you guys picking up Jerryd Bayless about 2-3 weeks ago with no injury to Jose Calderon mentioned anywhere. We get plenty of picks wrong, but getting this one right feels so good because he has the chance to be a difference maker at precisely the right time. With Calderon out, Bayless exploded for a 26-4-8 line on Saturday and followed it up with 23 points and eight assists and plenty of goodies in Sunday's game. The best part? He had just two turnovers in the two games. There is no return date planned for Calderon as of now, but with Jay Triano saying that Bayless is going to get heavy minutes going forward, and the fact that the Raptors are playing some of their best ball all year long – it just doesn't seem likely that Calderon will be rushed back. As it stands, you won't find Bayless on any of my benches in the Raps' four-game week.
Also in Toronto, the Ed Davis 20-10 train came to an abrupt halt with Reggie Evans needed to combat Dwight Howard, as Evans grabbed 17 boards in 32 minutes, leaving Davis looking for scraps. Davis, who entered Sunday's eight-point, six-rebound outing with an average of 19 points and 11 boards in the three games he had started prior, is still worth starting consideration unless a report emerges that Andrea Bargnani (ankle) will be returning. Like Calderon, mum is the word about Bargnani's status, and I'm guessing the Raptors organization is privately hoping he just calls it a year. In a four-game week, if Davis can pop off with two games in the ballpark of those big outings, but also gets hit with two games like Sunday, he won't be the reason you lost. Give him a look.
And while we're in Toronto, let's add James Johnson to the deep sleeper list for this week. He has been very productive with his minutes as the starting SF, with the only problem being that he has been leashed. He posted a versatile seven points with five rebounds and six assists on Saturday, and had 11 points with seven boards, five assists, a three, and a block in 32 minutes. If there was ever a time for him to get a full load of minutes it's now, and depending on your format, he could end up proving to be worth a start in standard leagues.
Toronto isn't the only place that the youth movement is underway. In Utah, helped by the fact that Raja Bell (foot) and Andrei Kirilenko (knee, back) look like they're done, Gordon Hayward is starting to show some of that Butler promise. He scored a career-high 19 points with three rebounds, four assists, and two threes in 40 minutes on Sunday, and the only thing holding him back from strong starting consideration is the Jazz's three-game week. He and C.J. Miles should have license to fire away down the stretch, though Miles has been more miss than hit recently. And with Al Jefferson inching his way toward the doghouse, and Paul Millsap deserving a rest as much as anybody in the league, keep an eye on Derrick Favors in deeper, daily leagues.
Now that the Suns are out of the playoff race, the real question is whether or not Aaron Brooks can capitalize. He found himself in a timeshare with surprising rookie Zabian Dowdell on Friday, with neither providing compelling results, but Brooks did create separation on Sunday with 14 points and six assists in 26 minutes, while Dowdell had just six points and one assist in 21 minutes. Steve Nash (flu) did not play and is traveling to meet the team on Tuesday, and this is a case where the extra day could work wonders for owners of both Nash and Brooks. Should Nash play, he will probably deserve a start in a four-game week, while if the report was to remain ambiguous all the way up until lineup deadlines – Brooks would be a high-risk, high-reward play that would be mostly unadvisable. Depending on how the needle moves between now and then, you will have your start-sit question answered.
The rest of the Suns are also a question mark, as Vince Carter shows sporadic utility and is a huge age/injury risk this week, and Channing Frye's low production begs the question of whether or not his shoulder is healed enough to sustain meaningless games. Absent a negative report on Frye's shoulder I still believe you have to start him in a four-game week, though I might be tempted to hedge my bets if I have a deep bench. Standing atop this mountain of meltdown is Jared Dudley, who wrapped up a solid week with 12 points, 10 boards, three assists, and three steals, and he should be in all lineups, and you can add Grant Hill's age/rest risk to the list of reasons why, too.
If you own any Mavs right now you couldn't be thrilled with their three-game losing streak to end the week. As mentioned, it put them on an island for the No. 3 seed with 2.5 games between them on both sides, and with just five more games on the slate, an aging roster has to be considered a rest-risk with their seeding mostly set.
As for Jason Kidd's owners, there is a good chance they're no longer playing after he averaged 3.5 points, 1.75 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and a 3-of-20 shooting mark over his four-game week. So is there a report that says that Kidd is going to rest? No. If he doesn't rest, is there a chance that he bounces back in the Mavs' three-game week? Yes. If we iron out the highs and the lows of his season and look purely at his averages, is the thought of benching him somewhat silly? Sure.
This is where the lazy 'you don't bench your studs' maxim comes into focus. Now, if you're not a fantasy analyst for a living I don't blame you if you follow that strategy, but when you get paid to have an opinion, I believe it's your job to go against the grain and tell somebody to bench LeBron James if that's what the facts say to do. But if we are to follow that maxim, and we don't get a report that Kidd is going to rest, then even in a 3-game week following a brutal face-plant the week before, you're theoretically not benching a guy that has provided fourth round value in 8-cat leagues on the season.
The problem with blindly playing your stud in this case is that he's run down, a rest-risk, and with his recent poor performance, an owner has to at least think about shelving him. J.J. Barea is playing well right now, and while Roddy Beaubois looked horrible all night and then proceeded to score 18 points with four assists in garbage time last night, either of them could end up cutting into Kidd's minutes. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Mavs, who now look like they could end up losing to Portland in the first round of the playoffs at this rate, used the rest of the season solely to get long lost Beaubois up to speed because they need a spark. I'm not on a diatribe to tell you to bench Kidd outright, as there aren't too many realistic options that I'd choose over him as things stand right now. I'm just saying that you need not be married to the 'you don't bench your studs' way of thinking.
As for Dirk, he has commented on not wanting to go into the playoffs cold, so I'm cautiously optimistic about his outlook, but a guy like Shawn Marion who is sort of banged up (finger, age) could be a risk. And as mentioned, Tyson Chandler's back injury isn't helping his cause, either. While you can't start guys like Barea, Beaubois, or Brendan Haywood in a weekly league, they may end up having some value in daily leagues later in the week.
And what would a look at young and old be without the Spurs? Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan have fizzled just in time for the fantasy playoffs, and to cap it off they have a three-game week. If there is a silver lining, it's that they lost enough ground in the race for the top seed this week that their fantasy obituaries were written in pencil and not pen. The 2.5 game lead they hold will prove critical as all eyes will be focused on next Tuesday's matchup with the Lakers. A myriad of outcomes could happen here, as the schedule could make the game important or irrelevant, and in either case Gregg Popovich could decide to either go full bore with his starters in that game – or decide he doesn't want to lose a big game in Los Angeles using his starters so close to the playoffs.
This week they start with a back-to-back beginning in Atlanta on Tuesday and then they return home for the Kings on Wednesday. They don't play until Saturday against the Jazz, and then the big matchup with the Lakers is that following Tuesday. If I'm Being Gregg Popovich, I play Duncan decent minutes against Atlanta's more deliberately-paced team, rest him on the tail-end of the back-to-back on Wednesday against the playground attack of the Kings, and then with the Jazz playing their young guys I probably have a quick hook with him Saturday, too, even with time off before Tuesday's game. So with all of that in mind, can you start the guy? I don't think so.
Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are much trickier, with Parker getting more run lately between the two, and Manu getting handled with kid gloves right now. Parker played 28 minutes and had just seven points on 2-of-11 shooting with five rebounds and eight assists, while Manu played just 24 minutes with six points, three boards, and two assists in a dreadful fantasy performance. Both are going to be tough guys to bench, but if I have a safe, lower-tier option that has four games, I'm considering pulling the trigger with one DNP being enough to make either player a bust. As for George Hill, who had another explosive game last night (albeit against the Suns) with 29 points on 10-of-16 shooting and four treys, he has to be treated like a fringe option at best in the three-game week, as one game of 'old George Hill' in which he scores 13 points with three rebounds and two assists would be enough to destroy his week. That said, he has more upside than the average guy, and if your options are limited a case could be made to play him.
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My neck, my back. My neck and my back
As you can imagine, the injured list is getting crowded. Here are the highlights:
Kevin Love – The Minneapolis Star-Tribune is "guessing" that Love will be out a few more games with his groin injury, and even surmise that he could miss the rest of the season. They have no reason to risk further injury here, and have a nice ancillary benefit of remaining in the No. 2 lottery slot to sway them. They are 1.5 games behind Cleveland for the top-chance at the No. 1 pick, and the Wizards are 3.5 games behind them. Anthony Randolph is the guy that everybody will be watching if Love indeed misses time, which should be the only way that he should sniff a lineup unless you're comfortable with a 1-in-10 shot at success. Even if Love is out, Randolph could start and post a ridiculous stat line, or he could play for nine minutes and rack up four turnovers and get yanked.
Pau Gasol – He is scheduled to have an MRI on his knee after hurting it in Sunday's game, but the good news here is that the Lakers are calling it just a 'tweak,' and he actually returned to the game after it happened. They also reported that he is experiencing some swelling and some soreness, however, which to me is a huge red flag for his status in Tuesday's game. Add in the fact that the Lakers' loss on Sunday could have crippled their hopes of catching San Antonio, and they could easily elect to play things safe.
Andrew Bynum – While Bynum is not scheduled to get an MRI like Gasol, he also hurt his knee in Sunday's game, but unlike Gasol he was not able to play after it happened. And after Kenyon Martin pushed Lamar Odom out of his way to tap in a missed free throw that decided the game last night, it goes without saying that the Lakers could have used him down the stretch in a pretty big game. The Lakers are also calling his absence in the fourth quarter 'precautionary,' while noting that it's not a new injury, and rather an aggravation of his existing knee injury. However you slice it, he will also be questionable for Tuesday's game, and if you own Lamar Odom you just found $20 in your pocket.
Dwyane Wade – He suffered what the Heat are calling a 'dead leg' after taking a knee to the thigh from Travis Outlaw, and in typical Wade fashion he floundered about the floor and made a big deal about it. Now reports suggest that he could miss a game, and while that wouldn't be shocking, let's not rush to judgment one way or another. The Heat need home-court as badly as any other team in the playoffs, and my guess is that he'll suit up for Wednesday's game against the Bucks. And while any Wade injury situation bears risk, if we don't get another report before Tuesday, I'll be plugging him into all my lineups, even in a 3-game week.
Lou Williams – Sweet Lou is out for the "foreseeable future" with a hamstring injury, and it's telling that the team is calling up Antonio Daniels to backup the point. While Sixers fans are probably punch drunk about their team's performance this season, when the dust settles they'll have a lot to think about knowing that No. 2 overall pick Evan Turner can't even be counted on to spell Jrue Holiday for 10 minutes. As for Holiday, he will likely end up playing much more than Doug Collins wants him to down the stretch, and Collins' statements about not resting guys will be tested as Andre Iguodala will be needed more and Williams' scoring will need to be replaced. Look for Thaddeus Young and Andres Nocioni to get a nice little bump with this development, with Young being worth a look in starting lineups, even during the Sixers' three-game week.
Tyson Chandler – He missed Sunday's game with the back injury he suffered late in Saturday's game, but expects to play on Wednesday. If you were looking at Brendan Haywood for a spot-start, you're probably not getting good news, but with the Mavs' seeding mostly decided anything is possible.
Kris Humphries – He will be out through Tuesday's game with heel and ankle injuries, and with four games next week there may be some hope if a positive report emerges before lineup deadlines on Tuesday. With Avery Johnson steering the ship, however, I'm already making contingency plans because anything he says simply can't be trusted. As for the Humph's replacements, most notably Brandan Wright, they can't be trusted, either. Wright double-doubled on Friday with 15 points and 11 rebounds after starting the second half, and backed it up with a three-minute outing in Sunday's game after getting yanked by a disgusted Napoleon. Good luck with that, Brandan.
Devin Harris – Betting on his hamstring to heal is risky business, and if it doesn't, then Earl Watson will be the guy to watch if you're PG desperate. And with his low-end production also not guaranteed he is a tough play, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him platoon with newcomer Kyle Weaver, who had 19 points in 29 minutes on Sunday.
Stephen Jackson – Paul Silas is "hopeful" that he can play Tuesday, and with the Bobcats' playoff chances hanging in the balance, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go. Even in a four-game week, however, the chance for an in-game injury is too high here unless you're feeling really, really lucky. Dante Cunningham made some noise in his stead with a season-high 21 points on Friday, but predictably disappeared on Sunday with just four points and five boards. Boris Diaw is the guy that needs to step up, and while he got benched on Sunday in the fourth quarter for his extreme fear of assertion, in a four-game week he'll be a tough guy to bench. Add into the mix that the Bobcats dressed just nine guys on Sunday and Tyrus Thomas might not be available, I like my chances with Diaw. D.J. Augustin's ankle appears to be fine and he made things right with owners with a 21-point, seven-assist outing, though I expect him to struggle a bit with teams able to bear down on him if Jackson can't play. Again, like Diaw, benching him in a four-game week will be tough.
Mo Williams – He has no listed injury, but I wouldn't be surprised if one popped up. After two straight hideous games over the weekend in which he totaled just 14 points and six assists, he's either deferring, depressed, or debilitated – and none of those things are paying the bills. The Clippers do play four games this week, but Williams is not a must-start play, and Eric Bledsoe will be worth keeping on your radar.
Carlos Delfino – He capped his return to his normally inconsistent ways with a rib injury that kept him out of Saturday's game, and with the Bucks having very little chance of contending for a playoff spot, I'm sensing we're about to see the old Scott Skiles that changes the rotation nightly. Add into the mix that Drew Gooden has returned and earned 20-25 mpg at least going forward, that Corey Maggette is now getting 22 mpg again, and Ersan Ilyasova is participating in shooting drills as if he is eyeballing a return – there are a ton of red flags, here. The Bucks do have four games, but I'd need a pretty good report from a non-existent Milwaukee press before I'm hitting the play button here.
Joakim Noah – All signs point to him playing Tuesday after missing most of this past week with an ankle injury, though Thibs isn't adverse to resting guys down the stretch. The Chicago press is pretty good about getting updates to us in advance of gametime, so owners likely won't have to make a blind decision, but if I had to decide right now I'd roll the dice.
Deron Williams – He played just 22 minutes on Friday due to the blowout loss, but backed it up with 18 points, three rebounds, and 12 assists over 41 minutes in Sunday's game. The story is that he's going to play the season out unless he suffers a setback, though he is just one bad play away from sitting down. As long as no new reports emerge, I think you have to roll him out there unless your safer alternative doesn't have too much drop-off. And if you're holding Jordan Farmar, unless he's the best stash you can find and you can afford to hold him, it's time to move on to a productive player.
Baron Davis – His knee and back could cause him to get shutdown at any time, but for now, he looks like he has a decent shot at finishing the year. And with numbers like the 22 points, six assists, and five threes he put up in Sunday's game, he'll be a hard guy to bench in the Cavs' four-game week. Consider him to be a less valuable version of D-Will, in the sense that I'm only benching him if a safer option doesn't have too much falloff. As for his backup, Ramon Sessions, he is producing enough to be started in most (if not all) formats, with the upside that Davis could go down at any time and turn over the reins. The only concern there is if a report emerges that his hernia injury has acted up, which to date hasn't.
Nick Young – He missed Sunday's game with his knee injury, and while he's day-to-day, it seems silly to throw him on the court just to see him hurt it again. Either way, you're not benching Jordan Crawford and you're not counting on Young this week – so there's not much to see, here. Andray Blatche probably sat on a lot of benches this past week, with his 36 points and career-high 19 rebounds (16 offensive) staring owners in the face. He is playing with energy and unless you hear about an aggravation of his shoulder injury, he needs to be in all lineups during the Wizards' four-game week.
Evan Turner - G - 76ers </TD></TR><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bodyCopy>With Lou Williams sidelined for at least the remainder of the regular season, coach Doug Collins called today's Sixers' practice "a practice for Evan Turner to get his mind right".</TD></TR><TR><TD>
