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SBT: Love To Be Shutdown?
A whirlwind weekend deserves a whirlwind column, but before I divulge, I have to pose the question – is there any better time to be a fantasy basketball nut than right now? You're either in the playoffs or close, and to chase that down you get the first two (or three) rounds of the NCAA tournament to keep your significant other hating you. My bracket is busted, but then again, I let my girlfriend, her friend, and my dog make the selections (Bacardi diets and dog treats). They know about as much as I do about the NCAA tourney, which is nothing, but I successfully picked every loser possible. I had Pittsburgh and Michigan State doing battle with Pittsburgh advancing to face Notre Dame in the Final Four. Sigh.
The Step-back Three is a place where Aaron Bruski takes a look at three issues in the world of both fantasy and reality basketball. Focusing less on daily events, the idea is to take a step back from the daily hullabaloo and try to make sense of things.
1. Playoff Push and the Shutdown Surprises – Western Conference
There are three more weeks of fantasy basketball left unless your league counts 'dead week,' though it shouldn't, and shutdown season is already underway.
In the West, San Antonio has wrapped up the first seed, while the Lakers and Mavs are within a game for slots 2-3, the Thunder has about four games in either direction for the fourth seed, and the final four spots are held down by the Nuggets, Blazers, Hornets, and Grizzlies, who are separated by no more than 1.5 games (in that order). Trailing the Grizzlies by 1.5 games are the Rockets, and then the Suns and Jazz are just 0.5 games behind them, rounding out the 11 teams remaining in playoff contention.
For the purposes of determining which teams will be grinding it out, you can omit the Spurs and Lakers from this list as both will play it safe, the Mavs might be more inclined to fight for seeding, the Thunder have no real advantage to be gained absent a big streak either direction, and the rest will fight it out until they are satisfied with their position or eliminated.
Some players that you will want to keep an eye on for surprise DNPs, limited outings, or cautious mom syndrome from coaches include Tony Parker (age), Manu Ginobili (age), Tim Duncan (age/knees), Kobe Bryant (knee, ankle, fingers), Pau Gasol (hamstrings), Kevin Durant (ankle), Dirk Nowitzki (age), Jason Kidd (age), Tyson Chandler (ankle), and Shawn Marion (wrist).
Of the teams that are likely to make the playoffs currently ranked 4-8, the following players will be handled carefully: Arron Afflalo (hamstring), Danilo Gallinari (toe), Raymond Felton (ankle), Kenyon Martin (age, previous injuries), Nene (calf, groin), Marcus Camby (ankle, knee), Brandon Roy (knees), Chris Paul (knee, concussion), Trevor Ariza (groin), David West (ankle), and Rudy Gay (shoulder).
Each of the aforementioned guys has their own individual risks. For instance, we know that Gregg Popovich is going to rest his guys, so George Hill, Gary Neal, and DeJuan Blair (wrist pending) could all end up being useful down the stretch. A guy like Kevin Durant, who is young but has hurt his ankle three times this year, probably won't get rested before dead week unless he tweaks it again – but you can bet he'll be sidelined at the first sign of injury. Kobe Bryant, Arron Afflalo, Raymond Felton, Marcus Camby, Brandon Roy, and Rudy Gay are among the most risky in this grouping, giving bumps to Shannon Brown, J.R. Smith, Ty Lawson, Tony Allen and the Memphis wings, and the Portland log-jam.
From there, there are two categories of teams that will handle shutdown risks as we go – the teams that are out of contention already, and the ones that will fall out of contention shortly. Looking at the grouping of the Rockets, Suns, and Jazz, let's bust out the protractor and try to look smart.
Steve Nash – He has surged since 'Pelvic Instability' broke into the Billboard Top 40 with their hit, It Normally Doesn't Happen Like That, which is a great sign now but you can bet grandma's cat Dilly that he'll be the first to get shutdown if the Suns fall out of the mix. Off topic, one of the things I appreciate about various writers is their ability to admit when they were wrong, and on the issue of Aaron Brooks over the past couple of weeks, I've been dead wrong. I don't know what's going on with him, other than he's clearly frustrated, but a player of his previous caliber doesn't go this far south without a reason. He threw a ball at an official, and while I haven't seen it yet and it doesn't seem too malicious, it's just yet another example of how he's losing his grip. Should Nash go down, don't rule out Zabian Dowdell to split time or even leap-frog Brooks at this rate. Either way, the beneficiary of that potential shutdown could be sitting on a goldmine, so keep your eyes peeled and watch the standings.
Channing Frye – We don't know how his shoulder felt, and hope to get some comment on that today, but the 19 points he scored spoke volumes on Sunday. If there is something wrong, however, he has already spoken about the pros and cons of playing through the injury and my sense is that he'd opt to sit. One of our blurbers said last night that Hakim Warrick would be worth a look in deep leagues down the stretch, but I don't even know that he'd be worth adding if Frye went down. He fooled us once before, but gambling on a guy that put up a donut when he had the starting job and no competition is crazy in my mind.
Vince Carter – His production has been closely tied to Nash's lately, which makes sense, because when Nash is out or hurt, they need him to handle the ball and initiate the offense. His knees will be an issue for the rest of his career, so gutting it out if Phoenix falls out probably isn't going to happen, making Jared Dudley a strong candidate for some late-season love. And while he has no specific injury, it doesn't hurt that Grant Hill is 77 years old.
Luis Scola – He lasted just 20 minutes last night in a must-win game for the Rockets, and has missed the last week of must-win games, as well. For a guy that doesn't miss games, that's about as big of a red flag you'll find on this side of China. Patrick Patterson posted a 13 and 14 double-double with a block last night, and could even split time with Courtney Lee at SF if Chase Budinger is out, so there's a bunch to like here outside of the two-game week. Unless we get great news about Scola soon, Patterson will be on the short list of stashes that I have in 12-team leagues.
Paul Millsap – He might try to impale the first guy to mention it, but if anybody deserves an early break it's the Sapper. He popped off for 35 points, 10 boards, three blocks, two threes, and a steal in his return-game on Sunday, and word is that he also uses aluminum for chewing gum. Kids, don't ever do that.
Devin Harris – He ran right up against the 30-minute mark last night, as he has been battling a hamstring injury that caused him to skip overtime in a must-win game on Monday. Unfortunately, his backup, Earl Watson isn't much to look at in fantasy leagues, but could be worth a desperation play if Harris goes down.
Andrei Kirilenko – At this point I'm pretty sure they're pumping him up with so many pain killers that he can't feel his back or his face, but the 20-minute outing last night is all I need to see to know his days are numbered. It's yet another reason to love C.J. Miles right now, and rookies Derrick Favors and Gordon Hayward are dark horses for productive weeks during the fantasy finals.
The final group is playing for ping pong balls, including the Warriors, Clippers, Kings, and Wolves. With the latter two teams and the Wizards each having 17 wins, there is some potential for a draft position swing, but predicting a true throwing of games is simply irresponsible. But if you're asking whether or not management would use that as a tie-breaker, well, they've been doing it for years.
Monta Ellis – He's as banged up (ankles, back, wrist) as they come, and while I'll be watching him, it just doesn't feel like he's ready to shut it down. I think he's having too much fun to quit.
Mo Williams – See Ellis, Monta. It's amazing how few reports we've gotten about his hip, groin, or state of mind since moving to the beach.
Eric Gordon – Now here's an injury risk. He took just 11 shots last night, but complained only about the 40-minute workload from the night before. My sense is that he's going to be able to handle the normal wear and tear, but it's the awkward landing or catch that I think could knock him out. Randy Foye played 31 minutes last night, and while I wouldn't stash him in a 12-team league, I'd probably do it in a 14-team league if I could afford the stash.
Tyreke Evans – He's hitting his benchmarks, and as funny as it seems, the Kings' frontcourt issues may be the saving grace for him, Beno Udrih, and Marcus Thornton. After Samuel Dalembert (knee), Jason Thompson (ankle), and DeMarcus Cousins (mouth) – the Kings have nobody, and I repeat nobody, to play down low. I get the sense that Thompson's ankle is probably hanging by a thread judging by the lower than normal per-minute numbers, and we could be seeing the run-and-gun Kings for the remainder of the year.
Kevin Love – You can add groin issues to the knee issues, and his season is very much in doubt at the time of this writing until we learn more. Anthony Randolph is the player on everybody's mind, but last night's 14-point, 4-rebound, 3-assist night while starting the second half in place of Love was a microcosm of his career. He had seven turnovers in 24 minutes. So my guess is that the Wolves would love to let him loose, but aren't about to reward bad play, which is his specialty. So they will counterbalance any of his playing time with a healthy dose of Anthony Tolliver. If Love goes down, make no mistake, Randolph will be worth a flier for his upside – but he'll need to be watched closely with expectations in check. Should Michael Beasley also go down, it could only help his cause.
Michael Beasley – He lasted just 15 minutes last night, and whether that was due to his hip, his ankle, or both, he is going to be a risk for the foreseeable future. I tend to think his minutes would be shifted more toward the guard group than the forwards if he was to go down, making Wesley Johnson, Martell Webster, and Wayne Ellington a bit more viable than they are right now. Each of the three need to show us something, however, before they're fit for activation in a 12-team league, obviously.
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2. Playoff Push and the Shutdown Surprises – Eastern Conference
In the East we have a three-team race for the top seed, with Boston and Chicago standing in a tie and the Heat just two games back. Orlando and Atlanta each sit on islands for the No. 3 and 4 seeds with four games separating them from each other and the next closest teams. Then, the Sixers and Knicks form another island for the No. 6 and 7 seeds at just a half game apart, and the Pacers sit in the eighth seed 5.5 games back. Trailing the Pacers by 1.5 games are the Bucks and Bobcats, rounding out the teams that are still in contention.
So the grinders in the group of teams that are leading the standings are the Bulls and perhaps the Heat. The Bulls are a young team that could use the home court advantage and the Heat are still trying to develop as a team. The Celtics have proven that they can win on the road in the playoffs, and will not be concerned about resting guys. The 'island teams' will probably play any injury situation safe, especially the Magic and Hawks who have no upward/downward mobility within the standings, and while one has to think the chance of playing an inconsistent Heat team is desirable over the Bulls and Celtics – the Sixers and Knicks will also probably play it safe with any injury.
Knowing this, guys you're going to want to watch will include Carlos Boozer (ankle), Luol Deng (workload), Rajon Rondo (legs, feet, pinkie), Paul Pierce (age), Kevin Garnett (age, calf, knees), Dwyane Wade (entire body), Chris Bosh (ankle), Hedo Turkoglu (age), Gilbert Arenas (knee, calf), J.J. Redick (abdominal), Al Horford (ankle, back), Joe Johnson (dead legs), Kirk Hinrich (calf, other), Andre Iguodala (knee, Achilles), Elton Brand (age, finger), Chauncey Billups (thigh, knee), and Amare Stoudemire (age, ankle).
Like their counterparts in the West, each one will have their own unique circumstance, and while Boozer, Rondo, and Iguodala are dealing with injuries now, they appear to be heading toward playing or staying on the court. Other than Redick and Arenas, who are not playing, the rest are suiting up and each holds their own unique chance of rest. Potential beneficiaries in this group include Kurt Thomas, Delonte West, Glen Davis, Jeff Green, Jason Richardson, Jameer Nelson, Ryan Anderson, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young, Toney Douglas, and Carmelo Anthony. Am I saying to adjust the value of any of these guys tremendously? No, but in some cases like Glen Davis, the situation makes a borderline player somebody comfortable to own in a 12-team league.
The remaining group of teams competing for the No. 8 spot in the playoffs is a truly sad bunch. The Pacers and Bobcats would have trouble in the NCAA tournament right now, while Scott Skiles took a trip to Bizarro World and is playing every starter 40 minutes per game and winning. The Pacers have no real shutdown risk outside of Danny Granger, who has no injury right now but looks and acts like a guy that wants out of Indy. I told a reader on Twitter the other day, when that day comes, he will be the next Rashard Lewis. Regardless, being the team in front, predicting a shutdown for him just isn't in the cards, at least for now. But for the Bobcats and Bucks, we have a few strong cases.
Stephen Jackson – He's gutting out a hamstring injury and pushing it too hard. The situation is simple here, as Gerald Henderson probably isn't worth starting if Jackson is on the court, and rang up second round 8-cat value for a stretch while Jackson was out. That stretch was a very small sample size, but the point is clear. D.J. Augustin actually takes a hit if Jackson is out, because he can't shake defenses that can focus on him.
Andrew Bogut – He's a risk whether or not the Bucks are in the chase. His elbow needs just one wrong hit, the rest of his body isn't showing up on the radar but could at any time, and his migraine headaches can pop up out of nowhere. Larry Sanders would get another shot to start if Bogut goes down, assuming Drew Gooden doesn't return and start, with the fantasy attention going to the guy that starts. The entire bunch of Bucks get a slight boost if Bogut goes out after touches get distributed, albeit in a more inefficient way.
Ersan Ilyasova – He is one of the keys to the success of Carlos Delfino and John Salmons, as when he returns he usually gobbles up at least 20 minutes per game and some of their outside looks. He is doing light work right now, and similarly to Delfino, he could be thrown right back into the fire. On the other hand, should the Bucks lose a stretch of games, they will opt for a more cautious approach which would be a god-send for owners.
The Other Guys – This group of Bucks is about as wild as cards go, as they could join the rotation with significant minutes, or be shutdown and excluded. Corey Maggette has no current injury that we're aware of, but his knee and then his back were recently hurt, but as far as we know he's simply out of the rotation. Anybody who has played fantasy basketball in the last year knows that this could change at any moment if he is healthy. Drew Gooden wants to return by March 23, and while he will be out of game-shape, a 20+ minute addition to the rotation is to be expected once he returns. And don't forget Michael Redd, who busted his hump to return to action when most other players would have taken their millions and ran. Don't think that Skiles isn't going to toss him 10-15 minutes because of the veteran contributions he can make. As you can see, there's a lot going on in Milwaukee, as Delfino and Salmons could go from fantasy title contributors to pariahs in a flash.
Moving toward the bottom of the standings, the Pistons, Nets, Raptors, Wizards, and Cavaliers are playing for ping pong balls, the future, or because their contract forces them to. I've written about John Kuester in a few places over the last week, and I'm not going there here. I'd rather let Ashy Larry hold my wallet than try to explain what he's going to do next. And other than the Wizards, who have something special brewing under Flip Saunders, the rest of the group is your standard out-of-the-playoffs bunch. They're all coached by guys that have various issues, but no team mutiny or early fishing trips are being planned in the open. The Cavs have the No. 1 lottery position all wrapped up, and for some poor kid's sakes, I hope they don't end up with the top pick. As mentioned, the Wizards have a chance to go up or down in the ping pong sweepstakes, but as you'll see they're a special case. Here are the shutdown candidates, excluding any Pistons:
Deron Williams – My personal opinion is that there is only ambiguity here to sell tickets and to keep his teammates or fans from labeling him soft. He needs the rest, and my guess is that outside of an outright shutdown, that he only plays in a few games here and there. Regardless, as if it needs explanation, Jordan Farmar should be owned in all leagues, with his 17 assists last night the early reward. The rewards also trickle down to Sundaita Gaines, who could become relevant if Farmar's ankle acts up. Don't think that the multi-year deal for him wasn't noticed around here, too.
Jose Calderon – He's been quietly productive since a barrage of minor injuries through the middle of the year, but as an injury-prone and somewhat old player, I've been watching out for any signs of slowdown. It doesn't hurt, either, that the Raps like Jerryd Bayless but know that he needs to develop into a true PG to have any real value for them.
Amir Johnson – He has played through ankle and back injuries that other guys would have sat through. Unfortunately, a three-headed PF monster has emerged in Toronto, so the guy everybody wants to see on the court, (Ed Davis), will be passed over by Jay Triano for Reggie Evans. And of course, that's what every 20-49 team should be doing this time of year.
Baron Davis – He might be the NBA's biggest shutdown candidate, even if you believe his talk about wanting to join Drew Carey for a ribbon cutting ceremony at the Rock n' Roll Hall of Fame before setting LeBron James jerseys on fire at Dan Gilbert's house. Knee, back, personal – you name it, he's got it. Make sure Ramon Sessions is owned, even if it's to keep your opponent from using him against you.
Anthony Parker, Daniel Gibson – Both are playing right now, but both are older and may or may not factor into the team's future plans. Parker's back and Gibson's quad have both been concerns, not to mention the ever-mysterious issues in Gibson's personal life, but both are a Byron Scott brain-burner from letting the younger guys play. Factor in Semih Erden's absence, and somebody from the group of (in no order) Manny Harris, Alonzo Gee, Christian Eyenga, or Luke Harangody is going to land on the radar.
Welcome to Washington – Flip Saunders may have been a bit more impassioned this season, and players may be a bit less aggressive with him due to his mother's passing, but the knock on his teams has always been lack of discipline due to his door-mat status. Enter JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche, Nick Young, and John Wall, each with their own unique issues. McGee thinks he has arrived but he hasn't earned anything yet, Young may have set a record for ill-advised shots by a guy with little to no playing time before this season, Blatche believes he is a No. 1 in this league but plays like a No. 3, and Wall goes between heady rookie talent and entitled top pick way too much for my liking. What do they have in common? None of them want to be associated with the losing on the court.
I'm hopeful that Wall will play out the string, but I'm not convinced he will. Young played on a bad knee all year long because of the success he was enjoying, so I'm not hopeful for his return. As for Blatche, the stories of his disdain for doing anything team-centric make it hard for me to believe he would risk any injury to join the losing parade, and I also wonder if the team simply wants him to go away. After all, the youngsters are playing with effort right now – why mess it up? It's no coincidence that JaVale McGee is enjoying his most consistent stretch, while Jordan Crawford and Trevor Booker dive around the court and produce. All three should be owned for the chance that Blatche and Young don't make it back, which is good enough to gamble on right now in 12-team leagues.
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3. Carmelo Anthony, Michael Jordan, and the Rub
The 'rub' was introduced to us by William Shakespeare, but it was introduced to me by a former boss. He'd instruct me to ask the prospective client what 'the rub' was, in an effort to find out what was controlling the situation, and once you knew that you could basically try to get the client. Until you knew that, however, you'd have a better chance getting laid as a fantasy sports writer. Though, special note, if you fib about the exact definition of what a fantasy sports writer actually is, there is some opportunity there, but I digress.
So when Carmelo Anthony sat outside of his team's huddle and pouted like a child on Friday, and Amare Stoudemire told him through the press to shutup, I said to myself, therein lies the rub.
The 'rub' in the NBA is that every team that has climbed to the top has had to take their lumps. The current Lakers had to lose to the Celtics, the Spurs had to lose to the Lakers all those years to truly attain greatness, the Pistons tried and tried and tried before beating the Lakers and Celtics, while the current Celtics had to beat – you guessed it, the Lakers. The Shaq/Kobe Lakers needed Michael Jordan to get old and retire, while the Bulls needed to dispatch the Pistons and Lakers before they went on their run, and before that Pistons, Lakers, and Celtics did battle for a decade. Only the Heat, Rockets, and Spurs have paths to a title among recent champions that are suspect, as the latter two teams needed Michael Jordan to retire and ended up beating less distinguished teams, though Houston won twice and the Spurs beat Patrick Ewing's venerable Knicks. As for the Heat, they beat a Mavs team that lost to No. 8 seed Golden State the very next year in the first round of the playoffs, but Dwyane Wade is still an ice-cold killer.
What did each of those teams have in common? A superstar that cares only about winning, period.
Yes, there were off the court shenanigans and they weren't all business (though tell that to Michael Jordan) – when they got to the practice court there were no laughs. There wasn't a party planning committee being organized by a hanger-on, unless you were also getting it done, but even then it didn't come before business. There was also no discussion about who is or was 'the man.' You either were the man or you weren't. You either commanded the respect of your peers or you didn't. Most importantly, leadership arose from within all of the ranks, and was not a result of deference based on fear. Guys followed because they wanted to, not because they had to, and they certainly had no question about who they were following.
Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Bill Laimbeer, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Joe Dumars, Hakeem Olajuwon, Larry Bird, Dwyane Wade.
Carmelo Anthony. LeBron James. Amare Stoudemire. Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, Joe Johnson
Carmelo sat outside of his team's huddle on Friday, and Ty Lawson openly talked on NBA TV the same night about how happy George Karl was since the trade. I'd put a monkey butler's wages on the fact that a secret party was thrown the day Melo was traded, and it ended with Karl doing the worm across a beer-strewn floor.
Why are they happy in Denver?
Because Melo takes bad shots, he doesn't play defense, and he cares more about himself than the team. LeBron? The man with the most pound-for-pound raw ability in the NBA will become the case study for all superstars to follow him, for better or for worse. Amare? He's a guy that was routinely criticized for talking out of the side of his mouth in Phoenix and for taking plays off. Dirk? The knock on him is that he was soft, and he probably will stay that way until he proves it on the big stage. Dwight? He's a case study in what wanting to have fun all the time gets you (hint: it's called not first place). Johnson? He just wants to stay out of everything as the 'just don't get me involved' type. He's also cool with Smoove 26-footers. On a side note, never trust the person that tells you they 'just don't want to get involved.' They do want to get involved, but they just don't agree with you.
So some of these players with titles fell into good situations on good teams and never had that one defining moment for all of us to see. Larry Bird and Magic Johnson were cold-blooded from the day they stepped on the court and went to storied franchises. But some of them, including the G.O.A.T. Michael Jordan, had to fall on their faces a little bit. But each of their teams, when they won, was a fierce machine with egos either in check or at least pointed in the right directions.
This is the challenge for these would-be champions. Can they have the confidence to do the right things? Can they know that they're 'the man,' but not need to prove it? Can they work to make others better, while also being the best themselves?
The Lakers, Spurs, and Celtics each have those players. Dwyane Wade is one of those players, and so is Chauncey Billups. Amare Stoudemire is reaching a point in his career where winning is more important, and we're seeing a change in his perspective. Dirk Nowitzki may be in a more limited role than ever before, but for some reason, you don't feel like the guy is so nervous anymore. Never before has Dallas felt so dangerous, either, including the two aforementioned years. Howard now makes commercials that say he's not all about fun, but you'll know when he's serious when his teammates speak in reverent terms. Like James, Howard has the physical tools to command a ring if his mind is right.
As for James, he needs to develop a killer instinct, and part of that will come with figuring out how to come to grips with his past. He either needs to embrace being the villain, or come full circle on what he did, but it can't be neither and it can't be both. Kobe stopped caring if people loved him after the Colorado ordeal, and while he has rehabilitated his image, he still thrives on showing people that they are wrong and he is right. LeBron did that when he went back to Cleveland, but that whole 'global icon' thing brings him back to caring about what you think.
Whether it was Kobe learning how to be a leader of his teammates, MJ learning that he needed to pass the ball, or each of the aforementioned 'winners' deciding at some point that it was all about a singular focus, tireless work ethic, and the will to lead men correctly – each of them did that, and absent of that they would have won nothing.
Carmelo Anthony is just the most recent player to find the spotlight that for whatever reason could not inspire greatness. James has been in that spotlight for a few years now. Somebody will break through, after all – Kobe, Ray, Kevin, Paul, Dwyane, Tim, Manu, and Tony aren't getting any younger. But it's more likely to be a guy like Kevin Durant, who almost took off Heather Cox's head when she talked about his individual accomplishment of beating LeBron the other day. Tell me you're not laying $10 on the Thunder to win it all.
Guys on the Thunder are willing to break their neck for Durant, and also break their neck for Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, and James Harden, too. They know KD is the man, and he knows that they are needed, too. It works that way and everyone has a role. Sitting outside a timeout huddle is no way to lead men. Neither is sticking to your guns when all of America knows you blew The Decision. Nobody's signing up to follow that.
And therein lies the rub.
SBT: Love To Be Shutdown?
A whirlwind weekend deserves a whirlwind column, but before I divulge, I have to pose the question – is there any better time to be a fantasy basketball nut than right now? You're either in the playoffs or close, and to chase that down you get the first two (or three) rounds of the NCAA tournament to keep your significant other hating you. My bracket is busted, but then again, I let my girlfriend, her friend, and my dog make the selections (Bacardi diets and dog treats). They know about as much as I do about the NCAA tourney, which is nothing, but I successfully picked every loser possible. I had Pittsburgh and Michigan State doing battle with Pittsburgh advancing to face Notre Dame in the Final Four. Sigh.
The Step-back Three is a place where Aaron Bruski takes a look at three issues in the world of both fantasy and reality basketball. Focusing less on daily events, the idea is to take a step back from the daily hullabaloo and try to make sense of things.
1. Playoff Push and the Shutdown Surprises – Western Conference
There are three more weeks of fantasy basketball left unless your league counts 'dead week,' though it shouldn't, and shutdown season is already underway.
In the West, San Antonio has wrapped up the first seed, while the Lakers and Mavs are within a game for slots 2-3, the Thunder has about four games in either direction for the fourth seed, and the final four spots are held down by the Nuggets, Blazers, Hornets, and Grizzlies, who are separated by no more than 1.5 games (in that order). Trailing the Grizzlies by 1.5 games are the Rockets, and then the Suns and Jazz are just 0.5 games behind them, rounding out the 11 teams remaining in playoff contention.
For the purposes of determining which teams will be grinding it out, you can omit the Spurs and Lakers from this list as both will play it safe, the Mavs might be more inclined to fight for seeding, the Thunder have no real advantage to be gained absent a big streak either direction, and the rest will fight it out until they are satisfied with their position or eliminated.
Some players that you will want to keep an eye on for surprise DNPs, limited outings, or cautious mom syndrome from coaches include Tony Parker (age), Manu Ginobili (age), Tim Duncan (age/knees), Kobe Bryant (knee, ankle, fingers), Pau Gasol (hamstrings), Kevin Durant (ankle), Dirk Nowitzki (age), Jason Kidd (age), Tyson Chandler (ankle), and Shawn Marion (wrist).
Of the teams that are likely to make the playoffs currently ranked 4-8, the following players will be handled carefully: Arron Afflalo (hamstring), Danilo Gallinari (toe), Raymond Felton (ankle), Kenyon Martin (age, previous injuries), Nene (calf, groin), Marcus Camby (ankle, knee), Brandon Roy (knees), Chris Paul (knee, concussion), Trevor Ariza (groin), David West (ankle), and Rudy Gay (shoulder).
Each of the aforementioned guys has their own individual risks. For instance, we know that Gregg Popovich is going to rest his guys, so George Hill, Gary Neal, and DeJuan Blair (wrist pending) could all end up being useful down the stretch. A guy like Kevin Durant, who is young but has hurt his ankle three times this year, probably won't get rested before dead week unless he tweaks it again – but you can bet he'll be sidelined at the first sign of injury. Kobe Bryant, Arron Afflalo, Raymond Felton, Marcus Camby, Brandon Roy, and Rudy Gay are among the most risky in this grouping, giving bumps to Shannon Brown, J.R. Smith, Ty Lawson, Tony Allen and the Memphis wings, and the Portland log-jam.
From there, there are two categories of teams that will handle shutdown risks as we go – the teams that are out of contention already, and the ones that will fall out of contention shortly. Looking at the grouping of the Rockets, Suns, and Jazz, let's bust out the protractor and try to look smart.
Steve Nash – He has surged since 'Pelvic Instability' broke into the Billboard Top 40 with their hit, It Normally Doesn't Happen Like That, which is a great sign now but you can bet grandma's cat Dilly that he'll be the first to get shutdown if the Suns fall out of the mix. Off topic, one of the things I appreciate about various writers is their ability to admit when they were wrong, and on the issue of Aaron Brooks over the past couple of weeks, I've been dead wrong. I don't know what's going on with him, other than he's clearly frustrated, but a player of his previous caliber doesn't go this far south without a reason. He threw a ball at an official, and while I haven't seen it yet and it doesn't seem too malicious, it's just yet another example of how he's losing his grip. Should Nash go down, don't rule out Zabian Dowdell to split time or even leap-frog Brooks at this rate. Either way, the beneficiary of that potential shutdown could be sitting on a goldmine, so keep your eyes peeled and watch the standings.
Channing Frye – We don't know how his shoulder felt, and hope to get some comment on that today, but the 19 points he scored spoke volumes on Sunday. If there is something wrong, however, he has already spoken about the pros and cons of playing through the injury and my sense is that he'd opt to sit. One of our blurbers said last night that Hakim Warrick would be worth a look in deep leagues down the stretch, but I don't even know that he'd be worth adding if Frye went down. He fooled us once before, but gambling on a guy that put up a donut when he had the starting job and no competition is crazy in my mind.
Vince Carter – His production has been closely tied to Nash's lately, which makes sense, because when Nash is out or hurt, they need him to handle the ball and initiate the offense. His knees will be an issue for the rest of his career, so gutting it out if Phoenix falls out probably isn't going to happen, making Jared Dudley a strong candidate for some late-season love. And while he has no specific injury, it doesn't hurt that Grant Hill is 77 years old.
Luis Scola – He lasted just 20 minutes last night in a must-win game for the Rockets, and has missed the last week of must-win games, as well. For a guy that doesn't miss games, that's about as big of a red flag you'll find on this side of China. Patrick Patterson posted a 13 and 14 double-double with a block last night, and could even split time with Courtney Lee at SF if Chase Budinger is out, so there's a bunch to like here outside of the two-game week. Unless we get great news about Scola soon, Patterson will be on the short list of stashes that I have in 12-team leagues.
Paul Millsap – He might try to impale the first guy to mention it, but if anybody deserves an early break it's the Sapper. He popped off for 35 points, 10 boards, three blocks, two threes, and a steal in his return-game on Sunday, and word is that he also uses aluminum for chewing gum. Kids, don't ever do that.
Devin Harris – He ran right up against the 30-minute mark last night, as he has been battling a hamstring injury that caused him to skip overtime in a must-win game on Monday. Unfortunately, his backup, Earl Watson isn't much to look at in fantasy leagues, but could be worth a desperation play if Harris goes down.
Andrei Kirilenko – At this point I'm pretty sure they're pumping him up with so many pain killers that he can't feel his back or his face, but the 20-minute outing last night is all I need to see to know his days are numbered. It's yet another reason to love C.J. Miles right now, and rookies Derrick Favors and Gordon Hayward are dark horses for productive weeks during the fantasy finals.
The final group is playing for ping pong balls, including the Warriors, Clippers, Kings, and Wolves. With the latter two teams and the Wizards each having 17 wins, there is some potential for a draft position swing, but predicting a true throwing of games is simply irresponsible. But if you're asking whether or not management would use that as a tie-breaker, well, they've been doing it for years.
Monta Ellis – He's as banged up (ankles, back, wrist) as they come, and while I'll be watching him, it just doesn't feel like he's ready to shut it down. I think he's having too much fun to quit.
Mo Williams – See Ellis, Monta. It's amazing how few reports we've gotten about his hip, groin, or state of mind since moving to the beach.
Eric Gordon – Now here's an injury risk. He took just 11 shots last night, but complained only about the 40-minute workload from the night before. My sense is that he's going to be able to handle the normal wear and tear, but it's the awkward landing or catch that I think could knock him out. Randy Foye played 31 minutes last night, and while I wouldn't stash him in a 12-team league, I'd probably do it in a 14-team league if I could afford the stash.
Tyreke Evans – He's hitting his benchmarks, and as funny as it seems, the Kings' frontcourt issues may be the saving grace for him, Beno Udrih, and Marcus Thornton. After Samuel Dalembert (knee), Jason Thompson (ankle), and DeMarcus Cousins (mouth) – the Kings have nobody, and I repeat nobody, to play down low. I get the sense that Thompson's ankle is probably hanging by a thread judging by the lower than normal per-minute numbers, and we could be seeing the run-and-gun Kings for the remainder of the year.
Kevin Love – You can add groin issues to the knee issues, and his season is very much in doubt at the time of this writing until we learn more. Anthony Randolph is the player on everybody's mind, but last night's 14-point, 4-rebound, 3-assist night while starting the second half in place of Love was a microcosm of his career. He had seven turnovers in 24 minutes. So my guess is that the Wolves would love to let him loose, but aren't about to reward bad play, which is his specialty. So they will counterbalance any of his playing time with a healthy dose of Anthony Tolliver. If Love goes down, make no mistake, Randolph will be worth a flier for his upside – but he'll need to be watched closely with expectations in check. Should Michael Beasley also go down, it could only help his cause.
Michael Beasley – He lasted just 15 minutes last night, and whether that was due to his hip, his ankle, or both, he is going to be a risk for the foreseeable future. I tend to think his minutes would be shifted more toward the guard group than the forwards if he was to go down, making Wesley Johnson, Martell Webster, and Wayne Ellington a bit more viable than they are right now. Each of the three need to show us something, however, before they're fit for activation in a 12-team league, obviously.
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2. Playoff Push and the Shutdown Surprises – Eastern Conference
In the East we have a three-team race for the top seed, with Boston and Chicago standing in a tie and the Heat just two games back. Orlando and Atlanta each sit on islands for the No. 3 and 4 seeds with four games separating them from each other and the next closest teams. Then, the Sixers and Knicks form another island for the No. 6 and 7 seeds at just a half game apart, and the Pacers sit in the eighth seed 5.5 games back. Trailing the Pacers by 1.5 games are the Bucks and Bobcats, rounding out the teams that are still in contention.
So the grinders in the group of teams that are leading the standings are the Bulls and perhaps the Heat. The Bulls are a young team that could use the home court advantage and the Heat are still trying to develop as a team. The Celtics have proven that they can win on the road in the playoffs, and will not be concerned about resting guys. The 'island teams' will probably play any injury situation safe, especially the Magic and Hawks who have no upward/downward mobility within the standings, and while one has to think the chance of playing an inconsistent Heat team is desirable over the Bulls and Celtics – the Sixers and Knicks will also probably play it safe with any injury.
Knowing this, guys you're going to want to watch will include Carlos Boozer (ankle), Luol Deng (workload), Rajon Rondo (legs, feet, pinkie), Paul Pierce (age), Kevin Garnett (age, calf, knees), Dwyane Wade (entire body), Chris Bosh (ankle), Hedo Turkoglu (age), Gilbert Arenas (knee, calf), J.J. Redick (abdominal), Al Horford (ankle, back), Joe Johnson (dead legs), Kirk Hinrich (calf, other), Andre Iguodala (knee, Achilles), Elton Brand (age, finger), Chauncey Billups (thigh, knee), and Amare Stoudemire (age, ankle).
Like their counterparts in the West, each one will have their own unique circumstance, and while Boozer, Rondo, and Iguodala are dealing with injuries now, they appear to be heading toward playing or staying on the court. Other than Redick and Arenas, who are not playing, the rest are suiting up and each holds their own unique chance of rest. Potential beneficiaries in this group include Kurt Thomas, Delonte West, Glen Davis, Jeff Green, Jason Richardson, Jameer Nelson, Ryan Anderson, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young, Toney Douglas, and Carmelo Anthony. Am I saying to adjust the value of any of these guys tremendously? No, but in some cases like Glen Davis, the situation makes a borderline player somebody comfortable to own in a 12-team league.
The remaining group of teams competing for the No. 8 spot in the playoffs is a truly sad bunch. The Pacers and Bobcats would have trouble in the NCAA tournament right now, while Scott Skiles took a trip to Bizarro World and is playing every starter 40 minutes per game and winning. The Pacers have no real shutdown risk outside of Danny Granger, who has no injury right now but looks and acts like a guy that wants out of Indy. I told a reader on Twitter the other day, when that day comes, he will be the next Rashard Lewis. Regardless, being the team in front, predicting a shutdown for him just isn't in the cards, at least for now. But for the Bobcats and Bucks, we have a few strong cases.
Stephen Jackson – He's gutting out a hamstring injury and pushing it too hard. The situation is simple here, as Gerald Henderson probably isn't worth starting if Jackson is on the court, and rang up second round 8-cat value for a stretch while Jackson was out. That stretch was a very small sample size, but the point is clear. D.J. Augustin actually takes a hit if Jackson is out, because he can't shake defenses that can focus on him.
Andrew Bogut – He's a risk whether or not the Bucks are in the chase. His elbow needs just one wrong hit, the rest of his body isn't showing up on the radar but could at any time, and his migraine headaches can pop up out of nowhere. Larry Sanders would get another shot to start if Bogut goes down, assuming Drew Gooden doesn't return and start, with the fantasy attention going to the guy that starts. The entire bunch of Bucks get a slight boost if Bogut goes out after touches get distributed, albeit in a more inefficient way.
Ersan Ilyasova – He is one of the keys to the success of Carlos Delfino and John Salmons, as when he returns he usually gobbles up at least 20 minutes per game and some of their outside looks. He is doing light work right now, and similarly to Delfino, he could be thrown right back into the fire. On the other hand, should the Bucks lose a stretch of games, they will opt for a more cautious approach which would be a god-send for owners.
The Other Guys – This group of Bucks is about as wild as cards go, as they could join the rotation with significant minutes, or be shutdown and excluded. Corey Maggette has no current injury that we're aware of, but his knee and then his back were recently hurt, but as far as we know he's simply out of the rotation. Anybody who has played fantasy basketball in the last year knows that this could change at any moment if he is healthy. Drew Gooden wants to return by March 23, and while he will be out of game-shape, a 20+ minute addition to the rotation is to be expected once he returns. And don't forget Michael Redd, who busted his hump to return to action when most other players would have taken their millions and ran. Don't think that Skiles isn't going to toss him 10-15 minutes because of the veteran contributions he can make. As you can see, there's a lot going on in Milwaukee, as Delfino and Salmons could go from fantasy title contributors to pariahs in a flash.
Moving toward the bottom of the standings, the Pistons, Nets, Raptors, Wizards, and Cavaliers are playing for ping pong balls, the future, or because their contract forces them to. I've written about John Kuester in a few places over the last week, and I'm not going there here. I'd rather let Ashy Larry hold my wallet than try to explain what he's going to do next. And other than the Wizards, who have something special brewing under Flip Saunders, the rest of the group is your standard out-of-the-playoffs bunch. They're all coached by guys that have various issues, but no team mutiny or early fishing trips are being planned in the open. The Cavs have the No. 1 lottery position all wrapped up, and for some poor kid's sakes, I hope they don't end up with the top pick. As mentioned, the Wizards have a chance to go up or down in the ping pong sweepstakes, but as you'll see they're a special case. Here are the shutdown candidates, excluding any Pistons:
Deron Williams – My personal opinion is that there is only ambiguity here to sell tickets and to keep his teammates or fans from labeling him soft. He needs the rest, and my guess is that outside of an outright shutdown, that he only plays in a few games here and there. Regardless, as if it needs explanation, Jordan Farmar should be owned in all leagues, with his 17 assists last night the early reward. The rewards also trickle down to Sundaita Gaines, who could become relevant if Farmar's ankle acts up. Don't think that the multi-year deal for him wasn't noticed around here, too.
Jose Calderon – He's been quietly productive since a barrage of minor injuries through the middle of the year, but as an injury-prone and somewhat old player, I've been watching out for any signs of slowdown. It doesn't hurt, either, that the Raps like Jerryd Bayless but know that he needs to develop into a true PG to have any real value for them.
Amir Johnson – He has played through ankle and back injuries that other guys would have sat through. Unfortunately, a three-headed PF monster has emerged in Toronto, so the guy everybody wants to see on the court, (Ed Davis), will be passed over by Jay Triano for Reggie Evans. And of course, that's what every 20-49 team should be doing this time of year.
Baron Davis – He might be the NBA's biggest shutdown candidate, even if you believe his talk about wanting to join Drew Carey for a ribbon cutting ceremony at the Rock n' Roll Hall of Fame before setting LeBron James jerseys on fire at Dan Gilbert's house. Knee, back, personal – you name it, he's got it. Make sure Ramon Sessions is owned, even if it's to keep your opponent from using him against you.
Anthony Parker, Daniel Gibson – Both are playing right now, but both are older and may or may not factor into the team's future plans. Parker's back and Gibson's quad have both been concerns, not to mention the ever-mysterious issues in Gibson's personal life, but both are a Byron Scott brain-burner from letting the younger guys play. Factor in Semih Erden's absence, and somebody from the group of (in no order) Manny Harris, Alonzo Gee, Christian Eyenga, or Luke Harangody is going to land on the radar.
Welcome to Washington – Flip Saunders may have been a bit more impassioned this season, and players may be a bit less aggressive with him due to his mother's passing, but the knock on his teams has always been lack of discipline due to his door-mat status. Enter JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche, Nick Young, and John Wall, each with their own unique issues. McGee thinks he has arrived but he hasn't earned anything yet, Young may have set a record for ill-advised shots by a guy with little to no playing time before this season, Blatche believes he is a No. 1 in this league but plays like a No. 3, and Wall goes between heady rookie talent and entitled top pick way too much for my liking. What do they have in common? None of them want to be associated with the losing on the court.
I'm hopeful that Wall will play out the string, but I'm not convinced he will. Young played on a bad knee all year long because of the success he was enjoying, so I'm not hopeful for his return. As for Blatche, the stories of his disdain for doing anything team-centric make it hard for me to believe he would risk any injury to join the losing parade, and I also wonder if the team simply wants him to go away. After all, the youngsters are playing with effort right now – why mess it up? It's no coincidence that JaVale McGee is enjoying his most consistent stretch, while Jordan Crawford and Trevor Booker dive around the court and produce. All three should be owned for the chance that Blatche and Young don't make it back, which is good enough to gamble on right now in 12-team leagues.
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3. Carmelo Anthony, Michael Jordan, and the Rub
The 'rub' was introduced to us by William Shakespeare, but it was introduced to me by a former boss. He'd instruct me to ask the prospective client what 'the rub' was, in an effort to find out what was controlling the situation, and once you knew that you could basically try to get the client. Until you knew that, however, you'd have a better chance getting laid as a fantasy sports writer. Though, special note, if you fib about the exact definition of what a fantasy sports writer actually is, there is some opportunity there, but I digress.
So when Carmelo Anthony sat outside of his team's huddle and pouted like a child on Friday, and Amare Stoudemire told him through the press to shutup, I said to myself, therein lies the rub.
The 'rub' in the NBA is that every team that has climbed to the top has had to take their lumps. The current Lakers had to lose to the Celtics, the Spurs had to lose to the Lakers all those years to truly attain greatness, the Pistons tried and tried and tried before beating the Lakers and Celtics, while the current Celtics had to beat – you guessed it, the Lakers. The Shaq/Kobe Lakers needed Michael Jordan to get old and retire, while the Bulls needed to dispatch the Pistons and Lakers before they went on their run, and before that Pistons, Lakers, and Celtics did battle for a decade. Only the Heat, Rockets, and Spurs have paths to a title among recent champions that are suspect, as the latter two teams needed Michael Jordan to retire and ended up beating less distinguished teams, though Houston won twice and the Spurs beat Patrick Ewing's venerable Knicks. As for the Heat, they beat a Mavs team that lost to No. 8 seed Golden State the very next year in the first round of the playoffs, but Dwyane Wade is still an ice-cold killer.
What did each of those teams have in common? A superstar that cares only about winning, period.
Yes, there were off the court shenanigans and they weren't all business (though tell that to Michael Jordan) – when they got to the practice court there were no laughs. There wasn't a party planning committee being organized by a hanger-on, unless you were also getting it done, but even then it didn't come before business. There was also no discussion about who is or was 'the man.' You either were the man or you weren't. You either commanded the respect of your peers or you didn't. Most importantly, leadership arose from within all of the ranks, and was not a result of deference based on fear. Guys followed because they wanted to, not because they had to, and they certainly had no question about who they were following.
Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Bill Laimbeer, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Joe Dumars, Hakeem Olajuwon, Larry Bird, Dwyane Wade.
Carmelo Anthony. LeBron James. Amare Stoudemire. Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, Joe Johnson
Carmelo sat outside of his team's huddle on Friday, and Ty Lawson openly talked on NBA TV the same night about how happy George Karl was since the trade. I'd put a monkey butler's wages on the fact that a secret party was thrown the day Melo was traded, and it ended with Karl doing the worm across a beer-strewn floor.
Why are they happy in Denver?
Because Melo takes bad shots, he doesn't play defense, and he cares more about himself than the team. LeBron? The man with the most pound-for-pound raw ability in the NBA will become the case study for all superstars to follow him, for better or for worse. Amare? He's a guy that was routinely criticized for talking out of the side of his mouth in Phoenix and for taking plays off. Dirk? The knock on him is that he was soft, and he probably will stay that way until he proves it on the big stage. Dwight? He's a case study in what wanting to have fun all the time gets you (hint: it's called not first place). Johnson? He just wants to stay out of everything as the 'just don't get me involved' type. He's also cool with Smoove 26-footers. On a side note, never trust the person that tells you they 'just don't want to get involved.' They do want to get involved, but they just don't agree with you.
So some of these players with titles fell into good situations on good teams and never had that one defining moment for all of us to see. Larry Bird and Magic Johnson were cold-blooded from the day they stepped on the court and went to storied franchises. But some of them, including the G.O.A.T. Michael Jordan, had to fall on their faces a little bit. But each of their teams, when they won, was a fierce machine with egos either in check or at least pointed in the right directions.
This is the challenge for these would-be champions. Can they have the confidence to do the right things? Can they know that they're 'the man,' but not need to prove it? Can they work to make others better, while also being the best themselves?
The Lakers, Spurs, and Celtics each have those players. Dwyane Wade is one of those players, and so is Chauncey Billups. Amare Stoudemire is reaching a point in his career where winning is more important, and we're seeing a change in his perspective. Dirk Nowitzki may be in a more limited role than ever before, but for some reason, you don't feel like the guy is so nervous anymore. Never before has Dallas felt so dangerous, either, including the two aforementioned years. Howard now makes commercials that say he's not all about fun, but you'll know when he's serious when his teammates speak in reverent terms. Like James, Howard has the physical tools to command a ring if his mind is right.
As for James, he needs to develop a killer instinct, and part of that will come with figuring out how to come to grips with his past. He either needs to embrace being the villain, or come full circle on what he did, but it can't be neither and it can't be both. Kobe stopped caring if people loved him after the Colorado ordeal, and while he has rehabilitated his image, he still thrives on showing people that they are wrong and he is right. LeBron did that when he went back to Cleveland, but that whole 'global icon' thing brings him back to caring about what you think.
Whether it was Kobe learning how to be a leader of his teammates, MJ learning that he needed to pass the ball, or each of the aforementioned 'winners' deciding at some point that it was all about a singular focus, tireless work ethic, and the will to lead men correctly – each of them did that, and absent of that they would have won nothing.
Carmelo Anthony is just the most recent player to find the spotlight that for whatever reason could not inspire greatness. James has been in that spotlight for a few years now. Somebody will break through, after all – Kobe, Ray, Kevin, Paul, Dwyane, Tim, Manu, and Tony aren't getting any younger. But it's more likely to be a guy like Kevin Durant, who almost took off Heather Cox's head when she talked about his individual accomplishment of beating LeBron the other day. Tell me you're not laying $10 on the Thunder to win it all.
Guys on the Thunder are willing to break their neck for Durant, and also break their neck for Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, and James Harden, too. They know KD is the man, and he knows that they are needed, too. It works that way and everyone has a role. Sitting outside a timeout huddle is no way to lead men. Neither is sticking to your guns when all of America knows you blew The Decision. Nobody's signing up to follow that.
And therein lies the rub.
