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hacheman@therx.com
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Team-By-Team Breakdown - First Half

Atlanta Hawks – Jeff Teague is the starting point guard and we’re expecting him to break out this season. Joe Johnson is poised for a bounce-back year with Jamal Crawford talking to the Knicks and Pacers, among others, and should be a solid fourth-round value pick. Josh Smith has lost a ton of weight and says he’s going to shoot fewer threes this season. With his weight down he could easily turn back into a shot-blocking beast and have a big year. Another value pick. As of today, Pape Sy is the backup point guard, but he should only be looked at in 30-team leagues, and maybe not even then. Kirk Hinrich is out for a month after surgery, leaving Teague the space to blow up. Tracy McGrady, Jerry Stackhouse and Vladimir Radmanovic are on board for now, and while all of them may end up teasing fantasy owners, you’re probably best just staying away. Draft results: Horford 22nd, Smith 28th, Johnson 39th and Teague 117th.

Boston Celtics – Rajon Rondo (ankle) and Paul Pierce (heel) are already banged up and missing some practice time, although both should be fine by the start of the season…should be. Meanwhile Jeff Green is set to miss another day or two after a red flag was raised in his physical exam after he signed a one-year deal with Boston. We’re going to assume he’s OK, but we won’t know for a couple days. The arrival of Brandon Bass doesn’t do green any favors, while Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen appear to be healthy. Jermaine O’Neal is still the center of record in Boston, but once he goes down, look for Chris Wilcox and Jamal Sampson to get plenty of run. And when you think about picking up Wilcox when it happens, keep in mind the fact he doesn’t block shots. Draft results: Rondo 23rd, Pierce 48th, Garnett 68th and Allen 78th.

Charlotte Bobcats – Still no word on Gerald Henderson’s surgically repaired hip, but we’re guessing no news is good news. He’s slated to start at SG, if healthy enough. D.J. Augustin will be pushed by rookie Kemba Walker, and word out of camp is that Augustin has never looked so focused. Walker might be worth a late flier in drafts, but the job is clearly DJA’s at this point. Boris Diaw is a trade candidate, but we have him as the starting power forward in Charlotte and think he’s a value pick in the later rounds of drafts. Tyrus Thomas, as usual, is worth keeping an eye on, but is coming off of major knee surgery, which is a red flag. Bismack Biyombo is expected to challenge for a starting job at PF, but has yet to be cleared due to a legal mess happening in Spain that’s affecting his buyout. The Bobcats plan on using Corey Maggette as their primary scorer, but I find it hard to believe he’s going to be healthy enough to be relied upon long term. The Cats are still desperately searching for a starting center, as DeSagana Diop is coming off a ruptured Achilles. They might sign Kwame Brown, who would be worth a late look as their starting center. Draft results: Augustin 82nd, Walker 87th, Diaw 91st, Maggette 94th, Thomas 104th and Henderson 112th.

Chicago Bulls – Derrick Rose is ready to blow up again and has been a popular pick (over Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul) at No. 3 in fantasy drafts. Tough to argue with that one, but I am taking Wade at No. 3 in my drafts. Richard Hamilton is expected to be signed to start at shooting guard, while Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng and Joakim Noah are expected to fill out the front line. All appear to be healthy right now, and Noah’s fantasy value is closely tied to his plantar fasciitis, which is under control for now. Draft results: Rose 1st (homer pick), Boozer 36th, Noah 43rd, Deng 53rd and Hamilton 139th.

Cleveland Cavaliers – Kyrie Irving is my pick for ROY and is projected to start at PG for the Cavs. Baron Davis has been waived, so Irving is going to get run. Target him after the veteran PGs are off the board. As for Davis, he’s got a back injury that could linger all season, and I would not recommend drafting him this year. I also doubt he is with the Cavs for too much longer. Anthony Parker re-signed and will split time with Daniel Gibson, giving both of them borderline fantasy value and making them possible last-round picks in your draft. Antawn Jamison is still in Cleveland and should start, but he’s also on the trading block. Rookie Tristan Thompson is worth drafting late in your draft. Omri Casspi is projected as the starter at small forward, but is dealing with a sore knee. However, it sounds like he’ll be healthy by opening day. If not, Alonzo Gee will be worth keeping an eye on. Anderson Varejao will play both PF and C, and given the fact the other C’s are Semih Erden and Ryan Hollins, Varejao is going to be a sneaky source of double-doubles this season. You could do worse for a starting center. Ramon Sessions is also still on board in Cleveland and will get run at both guard spots if Davis doesn’t get healthy. Draft results: Irving 66th, Jamison 85th, Varejao 109th and Sessions 132nd.

Dallas Mavericks – Jason Kidd is back and ready to roll for the Mavs and it looks like Roddy Beaubois and Delonte West will back him up. Roddy B is reportedly healthy, but the Mavs just have too many guards for me to get overly excited about him this year. Rudy Fernandez, Jason Terry, Vince Carter and DeShawn Stevenson are all on board in Dallas, creating a true logjam, especially at shooting guard. Terry may end up starting, with Rudy and Vince being his primary backups. However, we’re still waiting for Rudy to show up from Spain, while he and Corey Brewer could be moved soon in a trade. Jose Juan Barea signed with the Timberwolves, but the shooting guard spot for Dallas is one of the most confusing clusters in the league. The forward spots are also a bit of a mess since the Mavs acquired Lamar Odom for a six-pack of Natty Light. Dirk Nowitzki will start at PF, while Shawn Marion and Odom will battle it out for the small forward job. Marion should start, but I think we’re looking at a true timeshare here, while Odom will also play some PF while Dirk is resting. Surprisingly, the center position is the most clear-cut thing they have going outside of Kidd and Dirk, as Brendan Haywood has the job with Tyson Chandler now playing for the Knicks. You could do worse than having Haywood as your second center in fantasy leagues, as he should be fine with the minutes that are coming his way. Draft results: Dirk 10th, Odom 77th, Kidd 86th, Terry 115th, Carter 135th and Haywood 148th.
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Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets are still awaiting word on where free agent Nene will play this season and it’s entirely possible he’s back with Denver. If not, Timofey Mozgov, not to be confused with Tina Fey, is slated as the starter at C for the Nuggets. He’d be worth a late-round look in two-center leagues if Nene is gone. Ty Lawson is the starter at PG with Andre Miller slated to back him up. Stay away from Miller, and look at Lawson as a solid value pick in the middle rounds. Free agent Arron Afflalo’s status is still up in the air, but our guess is he’s back with Denver and starting at SG this year. If so, he should be a solid fantasy pick with so many teammates in China. Al Harrington will battle rookie Kenneth Faried for the starting job at PF, while Danilo Gallinari should have a big year as the starter at SF. Gary Forbes signed an offer sheet with the Raptors and remains in limbo. Wherever he ends up he’ll be worth keeping an eye on. Don’t draft him, but do watch him. Chris Andersen is also worth a look for blocks, but has trouble staying healthy. J.R. Smith, Kenyon Martin and Wilson Chandler are all stuck in China, and it remains to be seen if they’ll be allowed to return this season. My guess is they will remain in China until further notice. Draft results: Nene 54th, Lawson 65th, Gallinari 73rd, Miller 107th and Afflalo 140th.

Detroit Pistons – SG Richard Hamilton has been waived and is expected to sign with the Bulls, meaning Ben Gordon could easily start at shooting guard. Maybe this is the year he’ll bounce back. Rodney Stuckey and rookie Brandon Knight should split time at PG, while Will Bynum is also going to get some minutes. This just looks like a fantasy mess to me. Charlie Villanueva and Jonas Jerebko, who is back from a ruptured Achilles, should split time at PF, and it’s anyone’s guess who will win the starting job. Tayshaun Prince surprisingly re-signed with the Pistons, further clouding the picture in Detroit. His signing is possibly a disaster for young Austin Daye, who we have dropped substantially in the Draft Guide. I love Daye, but Prince looks like the starting SF at this point, as we’re looking at yet another timeshare. Greg Monroe at C is the only sure bet in Detroit, and he should pick up where he left off after averaging a double-double in the second half last season. I love Monroe as a fantasy center sleeper. Draft results: Monroe 56th, Stuckey 81st, Gordon 111th, Prince 122nd and Knight 136 (and rising fast).

Golden State Warriors – Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis are locked into the starting backcourt spots and both warrant first- and/or second-round selections. Curry dinged his ankle again over the summer, but should be good to go. David Lee is your starting PF, Dorell Wright will start at SF and Ekpe Udoh and Andris Biedrins will share time at center. It sounds like Biedrins might bounce back this year, but don’t draft him until late. Same goes for Udoh. Reggie Williams will likely be lost to free agency after the Warriors rescinded their qualifying offer to him in order to sign DeAndre Jordan to an offer sheet. Jordan is heading back to the Clippers, meaning the Warriors may have lost Williams for nothing. We still don’t know what the GSW offense will look like under new coach Mark Jackson, but at least the starting five looks pretty stable and reliable in fantasy. Draft results: Curry 19th, Monta 21st, Lee 33rd and Wright 69th.

Houston Rockets – The Rockets still have several things up in the air, but here’s what we know. Kyle Lowry is back at point guard and will try to duplicate last year’s amazing season. And that’s it. Goran Dragic is trade bait and could end up having value if he ends up helping to replace Chris Paul in New Orleans, but that deal now looks dead. Kevin Martin and Luis Scola were part of the initial CP3 fail, but are back as starting SG and PF for now. Martin was surprisingly healthy and a beast last year and should have another big year whether he ends up in Houston or New Orleans. If Martin is dealt, Courtney Lee might land a starting job, while Terrence Williams could actually become relevant. Patrick Patterson is worth keeping an eye on as a F/C in Houston, while rookie Marcus Morris and Jordan Hill are also worth a look. Someone is going to have to start at center and my early money is on Hill. Chase Budinger currently projects as the starting SF and will be a nice source of threes this year. Target him late in your draft. C Hasheem Thabeet seems to be in the perfect spot with Yao Ming’s early retirement, but could end up being waived in the near future. What a bust. Draft results: Martin 32nd, Lowry 57th and Scola 61st.

Indiana Pacers – I see the Pacers starting Darren Collison at PG, Paul George at SG, Danny Granger at SF, new acquisition David West at PF and Roy Hibbert at C. Assuming Collison bounces back from an off year and George builds on his skills from last year, the Pacers are going to be a sneaky team. George Hill will back up both guard spots after being acquired from San Antonio for rookie Kawhi Leonard, while Tyler Hansbrough takes a big hit with the arrival of West. Keep in mind West is coming off major knee surgery. I don’t love him this season, but if he can stay healthy, he’s going to have a nice year as Indy’s second-best player. I am a big Hibbert fan and expect him to be a quality No. 1 center all season for fantasy owners. Free agent Jamal Crawford could also end up in Indy, which would really hurt the value and development of George. Draft results: Granger 31st, West 38th, Hibbert 45th, Collison 93rd, George 105th, Hansbrough 120th and Hill 142nd.

L.A. Clippers – Where do I start? I spent most of Monday blurbing about Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan, but here’s what we know. They acquired Billups off waivers after losing out on the CP3 bonanza, and re-signed Jordan after matching the Warriors’ offer. Billups threatened teams not to claim him off waivers after being dropped by the Knicks, but the Clippers didn't listen. Our guess is he shows up and plays for his new team, so that he can get paid and all. The starters should be Billups at PG, Eric Gordon (traded) at SG, newly acquired Caron Butler at SF, Blake Griffin at PF and Jordan/Chris Kaman (traded) at C. The CP3 deal is still not dead (it’s like that cow in Me, Myself & Irene), so this entire entry could be toast in the near future. The Clips might send PG Eric Bledsoe, SG Eric Gordon, SF Al-Farouq Aminu and C Chris Kaman to the Hornets for Paul, which would decimate their team. If it happens (it did), your starters would be Paul at PG (sorry, Chauncey), Randy Foye at SG (or maybe Billups? Yes), Griffin at PF, Butler at SF and Jordan at C. Hopefully you don’t have to draft until this mess is cleared up. Draft results: Paul 7th, Griffin 8th (points league), Butler 95th, Billups 99th and Jordan 101st (I forgot he was still there).

L.A. Lakers – The Lakers gave away Lamar Odom to the Mavericks in hopes of landing Chris Paul or Dwight Howard later on. Both deals look dead to the Lakers, and seeing Odom toil for the Mavs is going to draw the ire of Lakers fans all season, and possibly longer. Once Andrew Bynum’s knee acts up, Pau Gasol is going to have to play center, meaning the new PF in L.A. could be Devin Ebanks. Sure, Kobe loves him, but come on. The Lakers still have not addressed their gaping hole at PG, where Derek Fisher and Steve Blake are still the two best options, but keep in mind they’re no longer running the triangle with new coach Mike Brown. Kobe Bryant, Pau and Bynum are all solid fantasy draft choices again this year, but the Lakers could be a real mess without Odom around. And if you’re thinking about drafting Metta World Peace, feel free to do so. Just be ready for him to wreck your field goal percentage one brick at a time. Draft results: Kobe 15th, Pau 16th and Bynum 41st.

Memphis Grizzlies – The Grizzlies are another team in a bit of limbo, as O.J. Mayo appears to possibly be headed for Indy. Mike Conley is a solid No. 1 fantasy PG, Tony Allen and Mayo (if he’s still around) will share SG duties, Rudy Gay is back from shoulder surgery and ready to roll at SF, Zach Randolph is in shape and dunking for the first time in forever at PF, and C Marc Gasol is going to be back for Memphis after being pursued by Houston. Conley, Gay, Z-Bo and Gasol are all top fantasy options this season and are benefitted by two 5-game weeks in the fantasy playoffs, if you’re in a head-to-head league. I still like Mayo over Allen whether he’s leaving or staying, while the fact Gasol is the only center on the team makes him very legit. Draft results: Randolph 18th, Gay 40th (steal?), Conley 51st, Gasol 59th and Mayo 143rd.

If you’re interested in finding out more about Memphis’ fantasy playoff schedule, check out this column, as well as the Draft Guide for further analysis.

Miami Heat – The Heat made a huge move by picking up Shane Battier and are my favorites to win it all. We should see a starting lineup of Mario Chalmers at PG, Dwyane Wade at SG, LeBron James at SF, Chris Bosh at PF and Joel Anthony at C, with Battier and Udonis Haslem coming off the bench at SG/SF and PF respectively. They could still pick up a PG to replace Chalmers, who is not worth drafting in most leagues, and keep in mind that Mike Miller is out again with a hernia. Eddy Curry is in Miami and reportedly in good shape, but falls into the “fool me twice, shame on me” category. Draft results: LeBron 2nd, Wade 4th and Bosh 25th.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Milwaukee Bucks

Brandon Jennings, Stephen Jackson, Carlos Delfino, Drew Gooden and Andrew Bogut look like the starters, while Beno Udrih, Mike Dunleavy, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Ersan Ilyasova should be key bench players. Udrih’s fantasy value has dried up in Milwaukee and he should be avoided in most drafts. Stephen Jackson has been dealing with bad back and sore hammy, while Tobias Harris and Larry Sanders were actually hospitalized due to dehydration. Neither are probably worth drafting, and just for the record, Chris Douglas-Roberts is playing in China, so don’t draft him, either. Bogut’s injury history is complex and annoying, as is his free throw shooting, but if healthy, he should have a very big season. Their draft results in a current draft I’m in: Jennings 42<SUP>nd</SUP>, Bogut 47<SUP>th </SUP>and Jackson 79<SUP>th</SUP>.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Ricky Rubio will be running the point this season and while I don’t have much faith in him, he’s reportedly looked good in camp and should be available late in your draft. Jose Juan Barea was inexplicably signed by Mr. Kahn, and will help Luke Ridnour backup Rubio. Wes Johnson looks like the starter at SG, while late second-round pick Malcolm Lee was mysteriously signed to a three-year guaranteed contract by Kahn, which is essentially unheard of. Bonzi Wells is in camp and could make the team with Martell Webster undergoing another back surgery. Michael Beasley is technically the only SF on the roster, as rookie Derrick Williams has been playing exclusively at PF. This is a plus for Beas and a minus for Williams, with Kevin Love, Anthony Randolph and Anthony Tolliver also on the team at PF. Love should be a beast, while Darko Milicic and Nikola Pekovic will man the middle. Darko’s a fine fantasy option when healthy, but was far too banged up last year for my liking. Draft results: Love 11<SUP>th</SUP>, Beasley 72<SUP>nd</SUP>, Williams 102<SUP>nd</SUP> and Johnson 128<SUP>th</SUP>.

New Jersey Nets

A starting lineup on opening night should look like Deron Williams, Anthony Morrow, Damion James, Shelden Williams and Brook Lopez. Actually, Shelden Williams will hopefully not be starting for the Nets, but they’re so thin at PF right now it’s a possibility. They’re still talking to Kris Humphries, so we’ll see. Travis Outlaw was waived and Shawne Williams was signed from the Knicks, and Williams will likely challenge James for the starting SF job. I have James winning it for now. Deron should be in great shape after playing during the lockout, Morrow and James are sleepers if they can stay healthy and hang onto starting jobs, while Lopez will hopefully improve on his six rebounds per game. There’s still a lot of talk out there about Dwight Howard going to the Nets, but that’s not worth worrying about until something actually happens. Draft results: Deron 9<SUP>th</SUP>, Lopez 24<SUP>th</SUP> and Humphries 96<SUP>th</SUP>.

New Orleans Hornets

Jarrett Jack is your new starting PG after the Chris Paul trade, Eric Gordon should lead the team (and possibly the league?) in scoring at SG, Trevor Ariza should hold off Al-Farouq Aminu at SF, while PF and C are a bit of a head scratcher right now. Emeka Okafor, Chris Kaman and Carl Landry are all on the team as of now, while trade rumors are flying around Okafor and Kaman. I’m inclined to believe Landry would come off the bench behind both guys, but then again, am not absolutely convinced Kaman can play PF. Either way, there should be plenty of minutes available for all three players in New Orleans. Marco Belinelli is the big loser here, as Gordon will crush his fantasy value. On the flip side, Jack is a legit possible No. 1 PG in fantasy and is unchallenged for the job. David West is in Indy this season. Draft results: Gordon 26<SUP>th</SUP>, Kaman 84<SUP>th</SUP>, Jack 92<SUP>nd</SUP>, Okafor 106<SUP>th</SUP> and Landry 129<SUP>th</SUP>.

If you're not doing so already and you're still reading this column, I'll assume you'd want to follow me on Twitter. Hit the link to do so. I’ll be back soon with the rest of the league in the next Daily Dose. And once the season is here, this will truly be a daily column Monday through Friday.

New York Knicks

Starters should be Toney Douglas, Landry Fields, Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler. The Knicks may not be deep, but that is a good thing in fantasy. All these guys are locked into jobs and minutes, and remain mostly unchallenged. Douglas is like Jeff Teague and Jarrett Jack in that they’re essentially no-names in big roles with high expectations. TD could run the point for all 66 games this season. I sense a bit of a letdown coming for Fields, but he’ll still be worth owning, while owners of Amare will just be hoping his knee and back stay healthy. Melo should be a first-round beast, while Chandler will provide some much-needed defense. Draft results: Melo 12<SUP>th</SUP>, Amare 14<SUP>th</SUP>, Chandler 55<SUP>th</SUP>, Douglas 100<SUP>th</SUP> and Fields 114<SUP>th</SUP>.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Like the Knicks, this is another very stable lineup, with the big question being about James Harden and Thabo Sefolosha at shooting guard. I assumed Harden would start after watching the team’s inconsistency in the playoffs last season, but Harden says he expects to come off the bench, as well as supports the idea. Mind boggling, I know. Anyway, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are Top 8 studs, Serge Ibaka is a very intriguing mid-round shot blocker and Kendrick Perkins is in the best shape of his life. Harden will still have fantasy value, but is no longer poised for a massive breakout. As for Sefolosha, I’d try to avoid him if possible. Draft results: Durant 3<SUP>rd</SUP>, Westbrook 6<SUP>th</SUP>, Ibaka 58<SUP>th</SUP> and Harden 80<SUP>th</SUP>.

Orlando Magic

Dwight Howard is still with the Magic, and still pushing to be traded. When it will happen is anyone’s guess, but it could be months away from happening. All we know is that if he doesn’t agree to an extension in Orlando, they have to trade him or lose him for nothing. Howard’s poor FT% and TOs make him a tricky guy to rank in fantasy, but he’s likely to go in Rd. 1 or 2 of your draft either way. And if your league counts FTM and no TOs, he’s a possible No. 1 overall pick. Jammer Nelson, Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Glen Davis should round out the starting five, with J.J. Redick, Ryan Anderson and possibly Quentin Richardson playing big roles off the bench. Q-Rich is dealing with a sore back, and while it appears the re-signing of J-Rich kills the value of Redick, he could still get pretty solid run for the Magic. Think of him as a 3-point specialist at this point. Gilbert Arenas was an amnesty casualty and has cleared waivers, so we’ll have to see where he ends up. Draft results: Howard 5<SUP>th</SUP> (points league), JRich 97<SUP>th</SUP>, Nelson 116<SUP>th</SUP> and Turkoglu 121<SUP>st</SUP>.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers starting five should be Jrue Holiday, Jodie Meeks (not Evan Turner), Andre Iguodala, Elton Brand and Spencer Hawes. Holiday should be a top fantasy PG, while Turner should be better than Meeks, even if not starting. Hopefully Iguodala will score more this season, but he was focused on dishing and doing the dirty work last season, hurting his value. Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams and Turner should do most of the work off the bench, while Nikola Vucevic will back up Hawes at center. In a draft I’m taking part in right now full of industry folks, Iguodala was taken at No. 30, Jrue at 44, Brand at No. 64, Young at 98 and Lou Williams at 137.

Phoenix Suns

Suns starters are projected to be Steve Nash, Jared Dudley, Grant Hill, Channing Frye and Marcin Gortat, with Sebastian Telfair, Shannon Brown, Hakim Warrick and Josh Childress making an impact off the bench. Brown could end up really challenging Dudley for the starting gig, but right now I’m leaning Dudley. Don’t draft Aaron Brooks, as he’s in China this season. In the previously mentioned draft, Nash went No. 35, Gortat 50, Frye 88, Dudley 126 and Hill 131.

Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers sadly lost Brandon Roy to retirement and Greg Oden’s season is already likely over after a setback with his troublesome knee. The starters project as Raymond Felton, Wesley Matthews, Gerald Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge and Marcus Camby, with new acquisition Jamal Crawford likely to play the role of sixth man, and Nicolas Batum to see heavy minutes at both wing spots. Kurt Thomas is on board and should back up Camby and Aldridge, but can’t have much gas left in the tank as the league’s elder statesman. In the aforementioned draft, Aldridge was taken 20<SUP>th</SUP>, Felton 60<SUP>th</SUP>, Wallace 67<SUP>th</SUP>, Matthews 76<SUP>th </SUP>and Batum 89<SUP>th</SUP>. We’re in Round 12 and Camby is still sitting out there, due to his age and injury history, but I might fix that with my next pick. As for the presence of Crawford affecting Wesley Matthews, yes…it’s going to hurt him slightly, but I still like Matthews this season, along with Batum. Batum is also going to get plenty of starts if/when Camby goes down and Aldridge is moved to C.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings have got a logjam in the back and front courts, but here is how I see the starters: Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, John Salmons, Jason Thompson/J.J. Hickson, and DeMarcus Cousins. Jimmer Fredette, Francisco Garcia, Thompson/Hickson and Chuck Hayes should all see minutes off the bench. The biggest question is whether JT or JJ start at PF, while I’m also wondering if there are enough balls to go around for all these players. I am passing on Jimmer, as Tyreke is the man and Thornton just signed a massive extension. Here’s where the Kings have gone in my ongoing draft: Evans 27<SUP>th</SUP>, Cousins 49<SUP>th</SUP>, Thornton 74<SUP>th</SUP>, Hickson 103<SUP>rd</SUP> and Hayes 108<SUP>th</SUP>. Thompson might be my next pick.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs should start Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson (appears to have escaped amnesty waive), Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair, with Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard and possibly James Anderson being key bench guys. Leonard could possibly overtake Jefferson for the starting job at SF, but he’s a longshot to do so right now. Neal is out after an appendectomy, but should be back late in Week 1 or early in Week 2 of the regular season. Here’s where the Spurs have gone in my draft: Parker 37<SUP>th</SUP>, Ginobili 46<SUP>th</SUP>, Duncan 70<SUP>th</SUP> (steal?) and Blair 124<SUP>th</SUP>.

Toronto Raptors

The Raps are looking at a starting five of Jose Calderon, DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson, Amir Johnson and Andrea Bargnani, with Jerryd Bayless, Leandro Barbosa, Ed Davis, Rasual Butler, Gary Forbes and Aaron Gray off the bench. Calderon and Bayless should timeshare again, Davis will challenge Amir for minutes, Forbes and Butler will push and could unseat James Johnson, while Gray and Jamaal Magloire will relieve Bargnani. Bayless, Davis, James Johnson, Forbes and Gray all qualify as fantasy sleepers. Here are the draft results: Bargnani 34<SUP>th</SUP>, DeRozan 63<SUP>rd</SUP>, Davis 75<SUP>th</SUP> (too high, I think) and Calderon 123<SUP>rd</SUP>. Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz should start Devin Harris, Gordon Hayward, C.J. Miles, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson, with Derrick Favors, Josh Howard, Enes Kanter, Mehmet Okur (supposedly healthy and ready) and Raja Bell all getting run off the bench. Andrei Kirilenko is not likely to return, clearing the way for C.J. Miles, who is now a solid sleeper candidate. Hayward should take a nice step this season and Jefferson could be the No. 1 fantasy center when all is said and done. Don’t take the bait on Howard, as it should be only a matter of time before he goes down. Here are the draft results so far: Jefferson 13<SUP>th</SUP>, Millsap 29<SUP>th</SUP>, Harris 62<SUP>nd</SUP>, Favors 118<SUP>th</SUP>, Hayward 130<SUP>th</SUP> and Miles 133<SUP>rd</SUP>.

Washington Wizards

Nick Young is still not signed, meaning Jordan Crawford is the starting SG for now. The lineup should be John Wall, Crawford, Rashard Lewis, Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, with Jan Vesely and Ronny Turiaf (and Young if he signs) as the big bench guys. There’s a lot to like about these starting five from a fantasy perspective and I’m expecting Lewis to bounce back, and for Wall and McGee to have monster seasons. The draft results: Wall 17<SUP>th</SUP>, McGee 52<SUP>nd</SUP>, Blatche 71<SUP>st</SUP>, Young 83<SUP>rd</SUP>, Crawford 90<SUP>th</SUP> and Lewis 127<SUP>th.</SUP>
 

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Dose: NBA Risers & Fallers
I wrote this column last year and just took a look at it to see how it turned out. I had Greg Monroe as a “riser” and Antawn Jamison as a “faller,” which I felt good about. Actually, I felt pretty good about the whole column looking back on it, so let’s see if I can do it again. Just because a guy ends up on either list doesn’t mean he should be automatically added or dropped in your draft list, but you should take this information with you and make the best decision you can at your draft.


Risers

Point Guards

John Wall Wizards PG – Wall is finally healthy after playing last season at 80% or less and is poised to fully break out. He’s going to be worth a second-round pick this year if he stays healthy, and my guess is he will.

Jeff Teague Hawks PG – Kirk Hinrich is hurt and prepared to play some shooting guard when he returns in about a month, to allow Teague to fully breakout. Teague’s confidence is said to be high and I see him running the point very effectively for the Hawks. Once the big-named PGs are off the board, Teague should make for a solid PG option in fantasy.

Ty Lawson Nuggets PG – Lawson will have to deal with Andre Miller in his rearview mirror, but the job is clearly his to lose in Denver. All signs point to a full breakout from Lawson this season.

Toney Douglas Knicks PG – The Knicks waived Chauncey Billups, leaving the starting job to Douglas. Mike D’Antoni’s point guards generally produce healthy fantasy numbers, and while it’s possible they add another point guard at some point, the job is Douglas’ for now.

Shooting Guards/Small Forwards

Joe Johnson Hawks SG – Jamal Crawford is going to be elsewhere this season, freeing JJ up to handle most of the minutes at shooting guard. Joe’s numbers took a hit with Crawford around, but I expect him to fully bounce back this season, making him a serious value pick in Round 4 or later.

Marco Belinelli Hornets SG – I had Belinelli as a riser...until Eric Gordon was traded to the Hornets. That should effectively crush the value of Belinelli, but he'll become a hot waiver-wire pickup if and when Gordon goes down with a injury.
Carlos Delfino Bucks G/F – Delfino is coming off a season ruined by a concussion, but was draining 3-pointers like nobody’s business before he went down. I expect him to start for the Bucks and pick up where he left off, meaning he should be a viable fantasy player if he can stay healthy. The downside is he’ll have to compete with Brandon Jennings, Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson for shots, but that should also mean he finds himself open from downtown several times per game.

Damion James/Anthony Morrow Nets SG/SF – The Nets are depleted everywhere but PG and C, and James and Morrow look like the starting SG and SF this season. They should at least return solid value with late-round picks, and could help fantasy owners win a championship if they can stay healthy. Just beware that things can change if the Nets make a major trade for Dwight Howard.

Wesley Matthews/Nicolas Batum Blazers G/F – Brandon Roy is retired, leaving Matthews to start and Batum as the team’s likely sixth man. Matthews should have a great season, while Batum’s ability to hit threes and block shots should make him a very reliable fantasy player to own as well.

Corey Maggette Bobcats SF – I don’t trust Maggette farther than I can throw him. But the Bobcats seem to think he can be their primary option on offense and see him scoring 20 ppg. Maybe he will, and while I don’t see him having that kind of success, the minutes and opportunity should be there. If he’s available late, feel free to pounce, but don't blame me when he tweaks something in Week 2.

Kawhi Leonard Spurs SF – Gregg Popovich has been impressed with the rookie and there’s a decent chance he’ll be starting at SF for the Spurs sooner than later. Consider him a dark horse for Rookie of the Year.

Power Forwards/Centers

Josh Smith Hawks F – Smith has lost a lot of weight, sworn off 3-point shots and appears to be determined to have a big year for the Hawks. I expect him to bounce back this year, block a ton of shots and become a leader in the locker room for the Hawks. That’s a lot to ask of Smith, but I think he has it in him.

Al Jefferson Jazz C – Jefferson could easily end up as the No. 1 rated center by the end of the season after averaging 21.5 points, 11 boards and nearly two blocks per game after the break last year. Draft him with confidence.

JaVale McGee Wizards C – McGee has triple-double potential and could lead the league in blocks if his head is screwed on straight. He’s going to have his ups and downs, but will have some mind-blowing fantasy lines this year for the Wizards. I’m going all-in on McGee in all of my leagues this season and while I suspect his scoring will be inconsistent at best, am expecting enough ridiculous stats lines to make him worth the ride.

Marcin Gortat Suns C – He averaged more than 15 points, 10 boards and 1.5 blocks after the break for the Suns last season and remains unchallenged for the job in Phoenix. If he stays healthy, there’s no reason to think he won’t repeat those numbers again this year. He could even end up being a Top 3 center when all is said and done.

Boris Diaw Bobcats F/C – If the season started today, Diaw would start at center for the Bobcats, but can also play both forward spots. He’s a great passer and can hit threes, and could be an extreme value pick after the middle rounds of your draft. As long as he stays in Charlotte, he should quietly have a big year.

Anderson Varejao Cavaliers F/C – The Cavaliers are very thin in the middle and Varejao is finally healthy. Expect a double-double per game along with some blocks. He should be a value pick at the center position this year as long as he stays healthy.

Greg Monroe Pistons F/C – Monroe is unchallenged to start at center for Detroit and averaged a double-double, along with 1.6 steals and nearly a block per game after the All-Star break last year. There’s no reason he shouldn’t pick up where he left off and have a big year.

Kendrick Perkins Thunder C - Perkins lost 30 pounds and is finally healthy for the first time in a long time. He’s not going to provide a lot of offense in OKC, but should be a solid fantasy center, focusing on boards and blocks. Target him late in your draft when you need a center to fill a void.

DeJuan Blair Spurs PF/C – Antonio McDyess is out of the way and Tim Duncan is not only another year older, but playing in a compact season that will require a lot of back-to-back games (meaning Duncan should get some nights off). Blair should command a lot of minutes at both the PF and C positions and be a solid fantasy play every week. And based on last year’s mediocrity, should be available at a bargain price in the later-middle rounds of your draft.

Fallers

Point Guards

Chris Paul Clippers PG – I was kind of down on Chris Paul until Wednesday night, when he was finally traded to the Clippers. And that trade changes everything. Paul is now the starter in L.A. and has two studs to throw lobs to on a nightly basis in Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. He should have a monster year if healthy and will likely lead the league in assists. I have bumped Paul up to the No. 3 fantasy player going into the season.
Kirk Hinrich Hawks G – Hinrich will miss a month after surgery to remove a cyst from his shoulder, while Jeff Teague and Joe Johnson might render him useless even after he’s healthy. I say stay away until very late in your draft, and won’t be surprised if he’s floating around on fantasy waivers for much of the season.

Baron Davis Free Agent PG – Davis is sidelined with a back injury that could be a herniated disc. There’s talk he could be out a couple months and I see no reason to draft him this year. He’s also been waived via amnesty by the Cavs, and his career is in jeopardy. Let someone else deal with him.

Mo Williams/Eric Bledsoe Clippers PG – The Clippers made a bold move by claiming Chauncey Billups off waivers and are then traded for Chris Paul. Williams is now the back up to both Paul AND Billups, while Bledsoe recovers from knee surgery. I'd ignore both of these players come draft day.

Rodney Stuckey Pistons G – Rookie Brandon Knight has looked great in early practices and Will Bynum is still around, meaning Stuckey could find himself in a battle for minutes, let alone production this season. Irving could easily end up having equal value to Stuckey, making him a pretty risky player to rely on in a stable of point guards this season.

Beno Udrih Bucks PG – Beno was solid for the Kings last year but will be backing up Brandon Jennings in Milwaukee this season. Unless Jennings goes down, I see no reason to draft or own Udrih right now.

Jimmer Fredette Kings PG – No backcourt is as confusing as the Kings’ and Fredette is going to have to play behind Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton and possibly Jamal Crawford. Keep an eye on him, obviously, but I doubt he’s worth owning on a long-term basis this season in Sacramento.

Shooting Guards/Small Forwards

James Harden Thunder SG – News broke on Tuesday that Harden is not only comfortable coming off the bench, but thinks it’s a good idea for Thabo Sefolosha to start in front of him. This is some of the most disappointing fantasy news to come along this season and I’m not happy about it. Harden is still going to have a nice season, but as long as he’s coming off the bench, he’s going to be too inconsistent to rely upon every night. Instead of reaching for him and hoping for the breakout, I'd let him slide until the sixth round or so.

J.J. Redick Magic SG - Jason Richardson re-signed with the Magic and immediately provides a buzzkill on Redick’s potential breakout season. Feel free to take Redick in the last round of your draft, but expect Richardson’s presence to crush those dreams.

Evan Turner Sixers SG – Like Harden, word broke on Tuesday that Jodie Meeks, and not Turner would likely be starting at SG for the Sixers. Another buzzkill. Turner could still produce enough off the bench (or start) to be worth drafting, while Meeks now deserves a look as a 3-point specialist. But Turner’s sleeper buzz quickly died when we posted that blurb about him coming off the bench on Tuesday.

Jared Dudley Suns SG – I’m still a Dudley fan, but the return of Grant Hill and arrival of Shannon Brown in Phoenix don’t do him any favors. I am still kind of high on Dudley as a sleeper pick, but he’s going to need some luck to live up to the hype he was getting a week ago, before Hill and Brown were in the picture.

Jordan Crawford Wizards SG - I am a Jordan Crawford fan, but unless something changes he’s going to be in a timeshare with Nick Young, and could be coming off the bench. It’s a fine idea to blow a late pick on him, but he’d be a bona fide breakout candidate if Young was playing elsewhere. Young is a restricted free agent and could go to the Hornets, which would reverse everything I just wrote about Crawford.

Austin Daye Pistons F – Daye is another guy I was really high on a couple weeks ago, but Tayshaun Prince is surprisingly returning to the Pistons and is expected to start at SF over Daye for new coach Lawrence Frank. I still like Daye’s ability to score, board, block and hit threes, but he’s not going to offer a ton of value unless he’s starting. A trade of Prince would obviously change Daye’s outlook.
Al-Farouq Aminu Hornets SF - Aminu was dealt to the Hornets, and while he'll no longer have to compete with Caron Butler for minutes, Trevor Ariza looks like the starting shooting guard in New Orleans, which should mean Aminu's coming off the bench. Unless he replaces Ariza in the starting five, he won't be worth owning.
Michael Beasley Timberwolves F – Beasley has looked great in camp but will have to sacrifice minutes to rookie Derrick Williams this season, one way or another. He also faded down the stretch last year and I think he might be fool’s gold this year. Feel free to take him late in your draft, but expect a full timeshare with Williams for the young Wolves.

Power Forwards/Centers

Brook Lopez Nets C – Lopez’s six boards per game were a buzzkill last year and there’s no thought that he’s going to ever be a big rebounder in the NBA. But keep in mind that the Nets are VERY thin at PF and C, which will work in Brook’s favor this season, but he’s still not a guy you’ll want to take before Round 4 in most instances.

Tyler Hansbrough Pacers PF – Hansbrough’s value took a hit when the Pacers signed free agent David West. West is coming off major knee surgery, leaving Psycho T with a glimmer of hope, but as long as West is playing, Hansbrough will take a back seat.

Chris Kaman Hornets PF/C – Kaman's outlook has changed since this article was published and now looks like the starter at PF or C for the Hornets. He has some injury concerns, but should be a solid source of points, boards and blocks starting in New Orleans, instead of backing up DeAndre Jordan for the Clippers.

Ryan Anderson Magic PF – Glen Davis is in Orlando and figures to get the starting nod over Anderson. Ryno will still hit plenty of threes and play a big role, but he’s not the sleeper candidate he was a few weeks ago with the addition of Big Baby in Orlando.

J.J. Hickson Kings PF – Hickson could start, but will likely be in a timeshare with Jason Thompson, who is a very effective player for the Kings. Keep an eye on this situation throughout training camp, but we have lowered expectations on Hickson due to the presence of Thompson in Sacramento.

If you're not doing so already and you read this entire column, I'll assume you'd want to follow me on Twitter. Hit the link to do so. And once the season is here, this will truly be a daily column, running Monday through Friday.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Super Sleepers

Let’s take a trip around the league and look at some of our favorite sleeper as you prepare for your fantasy hoops draft.

The Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide is in full swing and available for purchase right now. Projections, outlooks and rankings for all notable players, Tiers, a Rookie Report, Sleepers, Busts, Contract-Year Players, the Weekly Schedule Grid and Schedule Breakdown Columns are all included. Everything you need to win your league is included in the Guide, so be sure to check it out. It’s constantly updated with the latest information, like Brandon Roy’s surprise retirement and Greg Oden’s lost season.

Hawks: Jeff Teague is being drafted in all leagues and was taken with the 80<SUP>th</SUP> overall pick in a draft I had last night. Joe Johnson is also somewhat of a sleeper this season after struggling a bit the last two years. Now with Jamal Crawford out of the way, I expect Johnson to bounce back this year. He went with the 45<SUP>th</SUP> pick last night.

Celtics: Marquis Daniels and Sasha Pavlovic are worth keeping an eye on with Jeff Green out for the year, but they’re long shots to be worth owning this season.

Bobcats: Tyrus Thomas looks like the starting PF as of today, which means he’s worth drafting again. Injuries are a concern, as is his relationship with coach Paul Silas. Thomas was taken 117<SUP>th</SUP> overall last night, as his owner will be hoping for steals and blocks from big man coming off knee surgery. Gerald Henderson’s also a popular late-round sleeper pick, while Boris Diaw could be an extreme value pick, qualifying at C, PF and SF in many leagues. He’s the starting center for now.

Bulls: No real sleepers in my mind on the Bulls, although Richard Hamilton could surprise us this season.

Cavaliers: Anderson Varejao is the only experienced post player in Cleveland and should be a double-double machine, while rookie point guard Kyrie Irving has looked good early. Baron Davis is gone, and Irving’s stock is quickly rising. He went in the fourth round of a recent draft I took part in, and was taken at No. 49 last night. People are reaching for him, but point guard talent seems to thin out quickly this year. Antawn Jamison could easily have a bounce back season for the Cavs this year and he should be a value pick in the middle rounds.

Mavs: Brendan Haywood is the starting center and should be unchallenged for the job. He wasn’t drafted last night (150 players were), but he’ll be one of the first guys picked up off waivers. I would have taken Haywood, but was already overloaded at center. Vince Carter will also be an intriguing late pick if he’s starting at shooting guard.

Nuggets: Arron Afflalo is a popular sleeper pick this season but still hasn’t re-signed with the Nuggets. It sounds like he will, and he should be the team’s starting SG. Ty Lawson is called a sleeper in some parts of the world, but he’s being taken too early to really qualify. He went 63<SUP>rd</SUP> overall last night.

Pistons: Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva should both bounce back this year, Rodney Stuckey will be interesting at shooting guard, and Austin Daye and Greg Monroe are a couple very exciting young players. Tayshaun Prince surprisingly returned to Detroit, ruining the Daye part, but Monroe looks like a beast. He was taken 35<SUP>th</SUP> overall last night.

Warriors: Center is a mystery for Golden State, with Ekpe Udoh, Andris Biedrins and Kwame Brown all competing for the starting job and minutes. One of them is going to have value, but I have no idea which one at this point. Brandon Rush will be looking for new life in GSW, but will have a hard time making a big impact with Monta Ellis and Dorell Wright in front of him.

Rockets: Chase Budinger should start at SF and hit a lot of threes this season. I took him with my last pick last night, 146<SUP>th</SUP> overall. Jordan Hill started at center in their preseason game and had 17 points and 13 boards, and someone has to play center for this team. Until they trade for one, Hill is possibly going to be fun to own. Target him with your last pick if you need a center.

Pacers: Paul George is the popular sleeper in Indy, along with Roy Hibbert, George Hill and Tyler Hansbrough. I took George with the 106<SUP>th</SUP> pick last night and he had 17 points and 10 boards in his first preseason game. And with Rush in GSW, it only helps George’s cause.

Clippers: There aren’t really sleepers in LAC, unless you count Chauncey Billups at SG. If Chris Paul goes down it’s possible that Eric Bledsoe could be worth owning, but we’d like his chances better if Billups wasn’t around.

Lakers: Matt Barnes looks like the starting small forward with Ron Artest coming off the bench, while Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy are intriguing alongside Artest on the Laker pine. And given Andrew Bynum will start the season with a five-game suspension, McBob and Murphy could get plenty of early action.

Grizzlies: Tony Allen looks like the starter at SG while O.J. Mayo remains in trade rumors. Allen should rack up a ton of steals, but will be up and down for his fantasy owners. He went 102<SUP>nd</SUP> overall last night, while Mayo was taken with the 116<SUP>th</SUP> pick.

Heat: No sleeper picks here, but Shane Battier should do some damage when he’s in the game. As usual, Battier will be good at most things, but not great at any of them – at least the ones that matter in fantasy.

Bucks: I like Carlos Delfino to hit a ton of threes and play well this year, but it’s far from guaranteed with Stephen Jackson, Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut around. Drew Gooden is also someone to keep an eye on, but I like using the last pick of the draft on Delfino for now. If he gets out of the gates slowly, I’ll cut him for a hot free agent.

Wolves: Michael Beasley is suddenly more appealing with news that Derrick Williams is only going to play power forward (for now). Beas is one of the only SF’s on the team and could get a ton of minutes this season. Ricky Rubio looked pretty good in his first preseason game and has seen his stock rise recently. Darko Milicic isn’t being taken in most drafts, but will be useful if healthy, and Wes Johnson could be primed to break out this season. Beasley went 79<SUP>th</SUP>, Williams 98<SUP>th</SUP>, Rubio 92<SUP>nd</SUP> and Johnson 114<SUP>th</SUP> last night.

Nets: Until five minutes ago, Damion James and Anthony Morrow looked like starters for the Nets. However, with Andrei Kirilenko reportedly heading to New Jersey, James is likely going to come off the bench, at least while Kirilenko is actually healthy. All three players had trouble staying healthy last season, but appear to be healthy for now. I got Morrow with the 115<SUP>th</SUP> pick last night and Kirilenko at No. 126 - and feel good about it.

Hornets: Jarrett Jack will be running the point in New Orleans and is suddenly popular in fantasy circles. Trevor Ariza is also going to get plenty of minutes and could bounce back after a couple terrible seasons. It’s amazing how closely all the Hornets were selected to one another last night: Okafor 96<SUP>th</SUP>, Kaman 101<SUP>st</SUP>, Jack 104<SUP>th</SUP>, Landry 109<SUP>th</SUP> and Ariza 145<SUP>th</SUP>.

Knicks: Landry Fields will start at SG and be a popular late pickup, while Toney Douglas is the starting point guard in New York. They signed Baron Davis, but I imagine his back will be messed up all year and the Knicks will likely need to monitor his minutes closely. However, I also imagine that stuff about him missing 8-10 weeks is suddenly outdated, and he’ll be back sooner than that. Douglas was taken 112<SUP>th</SUP>, Fields was undrafted and Davis went 139<SUP>th</SUP>.

Thunder: There are no real sleepers here except for James Harden, who will likely continue to come off the bench for the Thunder. In some ways this is good, as it will cause him to drop later in drafts, giving him a better shot of becoming a value pick. He went No. 84 last night.

Magic: Jason Richardson’s return to the Magic cools the buzz on J.J. Redick, but Redick’s still the closest thing to a sleeper in Orlando.

Sixers: Jodie Meeks is starting at SG but Evan Turner is the better sleeper pick here. Spencer Hawes should also make for a serviceable fantasy center this season. Hawes is only being taken in deep leagues, while Turner went 125<SUP>th</SUP> last night.

Suns: Jared Dudley is still holding off Shannon Brown for the starting SG job, while Grant Hill’s return to the Suns should mean he’ll start at small forward. Toss in Marcin Gortat’s upside and Channing Frye’s 3-point shooting, and you’ve got a bunch of sleepers in Phoenix. The secret’s out on Gortat though, so don’t plan on stealing him after the middle rounds. Last night Gortat went 60<SUP>th</SUP>, Frye 70<SUP>th</SUP>, Dudley 122<SUP>nd</SUP> and Hill went undrafted.

Blazers: Wesley Matthews had a lot of buzz around him coming into the season, as did Nicolas Batum, but the arrival of Jamal Crawford has calmed everyone down. I still think all three players are worth owning, and would still rank them: Matthews, Batum, Crawford.

Kings: Simply put, the Kings are just too deep to find any real sleepers. Marcus Thornton is probably the closest thing to one that we’ve go, and I took him with the No. 75 pick last night. Jimmer Fredette, Jason Thompson and Chuck Hayes are all in a battle for minutes and the ball, but things will only open up if there are injuries.

Spurs: DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard and Richard Jefferson are all available at the end of drafts, and all should be worth owning. None are must-own players, but I like Blair the best of this group, as he should start at center this year. Blair was taken with the 141<SUP>st</SUP> pick last night.

Raptors: James Johnson could start at SF for the Raps and have a nice season, but is only worth a look in deep leagues, while Jerryd Bayless should push Jose Calderon all season. However, Bayless will only be startable in fantasy when Calderon is hurt. Amir Johnson and Ed Davis are both going late in drafts, but like most other positions in Toronto, seem like they’ll hurt each other’s value too much to make them reliable.

Jazz: Gordon Hayward is a nice sleeper this year, although I doubt he’ll ever be a must-start guy, while C.J. Miles looks to have the small forward job on lockdown. I’d rather use a late/last pick on Miles than Hayward at this point.

Wizards: JaVale McGee is probably my favorite sleeper this year and I took him at No. 66 last night. I also think Rashard Lewis is going to have a bounce back season, and he was taken at No. 132. Jordan Crawford is still on the rise despite Nick Young finally joining the Wizards yesterday, but it remains to be seen if Crawford will hold onto the starting gig. I took Crawford with the 95<SUP>th</SUP> pick last night.
 

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NBA Fantasy Draft Recap
This is a recap of a 12-team, deep, points-league draft that is still going on as we speak. Therefore, you only get the first 15 rounds, which should be plenty. I'd like to apologize for the lack of mock drafts and ADP information available on the site and in the Draft Guide. It's a result of the lockout, as most of my drafts, including this one, haven't even been completed yet. Needless to say, this is a strange year for the NBA and fantasy hoops.

League owners include fantasy gurus like Matt Buser, Sergio Gonzalez, Tom Carpenter, Keith Wayland, Dan Dobish, Andrew Feingold, David Klyce and Dave Gawron, an NFL referee guru in Brian Flood, an MMA guru in Hector Castro, and a trading card guru/Bulls fan in Tim Trout with Beckett Media.


Get Rotoworld's NBA Draft Guide Now!

Scoring Format:

3-PT = .08 points
AST = .17 points
BK = .25 points
FGM = .25 points
FGA = - .08 points
FTM = .25 points
FTA = -.17 points
PTS = .08 points
STL = .17 points
TO = - .17 points
REB = .10 points

It may look strange to you if you don’t play in a points league, but the final score of a weekly game ends up being about the same as your average NBA game, which is cool. And while your league might be Roto or H2H, this should give you a general idea of where most guys may go in your draft.

Draft Order:

1. Trout
2. Sergio
3. Wayland
4. Alexander
5. Gawron
6. Feingold
7. Flood
8. Carpenter
9. Klyce
10. Castro
11. Dobish
12. Buser

The Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide is in full swing and available for purchase right now. Projections, outlooks and rankings for all notable players, Tiers, a Rookie Report, Sleepers, Busts, Contract-Year Players, the Weekly Schedule Grid and Schedule Breakdown Columns are all included. Everything you need to win your league is included in the Guide, so be sure to check it out. It’s constantly updated with the latest information, like Brandon Roy’s surprise retirement and Greg Oden’s lost season.

Round 1

1 Derrick Rose PG CHI
2 LeBron James SF MIA
3 Kevin Durant SF OKC
4 Dwyane Wade SG MIA (me)
5 Dwight Howard C ORL
6 Russell Westbrook PG OKC
7 Chris Paul PG LAC
8 Blake Griffin PF LAC
9 Deron Williams PG NJ
10 Dirk Nowitzki PF DAL
11 Kevin Love PF MIN
12 Carmelo Anthony SF NY

Would I take Rose No. 1? No. Will people who end up with Rose on their team win a lot of fantasy leagues? Probably. If you love Rose and want him on your team, do what you need to do. I’m not mad at Trout for showing Rose the love, even though LeBron and Durant are the obvious picks. I took Wade at No. 4, Paul dropped because he hadn’t been traded to the Clips yet, and you can look for Love and Griffin to be flip flopped in most leagues.

Round 2

13 Al Jefferson UTA C
14 Amare Stoudemire NY PF
15 Kobe Bryant LAL SG
16 Pau Gasol LAL PF
17 John Wall WAS PG
18 Zach Randolph MEM PF
19 Stephen Curry GS PG
20 LaMarcus Aldridge POR PF
21 Monta Ellis GS SG (me)
22 Al Horford ATL C
23 Rajon Rondo BOS PG
24 Brook Lopez NJ C

I was pretty happy to see Monta this late, and was surprised to see Steph Curry fall this far. I love the Wall pick and if you want him, you’re going to probably have to take him in Round 2. I wouldn’t take Lopez in Round 2, especially since we don’t know what he might look like in Orlando instead of Jersey.

Round 3

25 Chris Bosh MIA PF
26 Eric Gordon NO SG
27 Tyreke Evans SAC PG
28 Josh Smith ATL PF (me)
29 Paul Millsap UTA PF
30 Andre Iguodala PHI SF
31 Danny Granger IND SF
32 Kevin Martin HOU SG
33 David Lee GS PF
34 Andrea Bargnani TOR C
35 Steve Nash PHO PG
36 Carlos Boozer CHI PF

I was thrilled to see a slimmed down Smoove here, in a league that reward blocks. Eric Gordon is going to go in Round 2 after being traded to the Hornets, if he’s happy and stays there as the clear No. 1 option. I would not have taken Bargnani this soon, but those of us who have been in this league for a while know that you can never have too many centers.

Round 4

37 Tony Parker SA PG
38 David West IND PF
39 Joe Johnson ATL SG
40 Rudy Gay MEM SF
41 Andrew Bynum LAL C
42 Brandon Jennings MIL PG
43 Joakim Noah CHI C
44 Jrue Holiday PHI PG
45 Roy Hibbert IND C (me)
46 Manu Ginobili SA SG
47 Andrew Bogut MIL C
48 Paul Pierce BOS SF

Joe Johnson in Round 4 looks good to me, as Jamal Crawford (now on Blazers) was slowing his roll. West is coming off knee surgery but should be very good in Indy, Gay is back from shoulder surgery and was having a career year last season, while Jrue Holiday is an exciting young PG. I went with Hibbert for the center eligibility and blocks combo, but you can probably get him in Round 5.

Round 5

49 DeMarcus Cousins SAC C
50 Marcin Gortat PHO C
51 Mike Conley MEM PG
52 JaVale McGee WAS C (me)
53 Luol Deng CHI SF
54 Nene Denver C
55 Tyson Chandler NY C
56 Greg Monroe DET PF
57 Kyle Lowry HOU PG
58 Serge Ibaka OKC PF
59 Marc Gasol MEM C
60 Raymond Felton POR PG

I reached for McGee here, but at least have two starting Cs that block shots under wraps. I like Gortat a lot, and this was the round the bigs started flying off the board.

Round 6

61 Luis Scola HOU PF
62 Devin Harris UTA PG
63 DeMar DeRozan TOR SG
64 Elton Brand PHI PF
65 Ty Lawson DEN PG
66 Kyrie Irving CLE PG
67 Gerald Wallace POR SF
68 Kevin Garnett BOS PF
69 Dorell Wright GS SF (me)
70 Tim Duncan SA PF
71 Andray Blatche WAS PF
72 Michael Beasley MIN SF

I’d like DeRozan a lot if he hit more threes, Ty Lawson is a favorite sleeper and Irving is climbing draft boards quickly after a nice start to his preseason. I was thrilled to get Wright this late, while Blatche and Beasley were very solid F options in Round 6.

Round 7

73 Danilo Gallinari DEN SF
74 Marcus Thornton SAC PG
75 Ed Davis TOR PF
76 Wesley Matthews POR SG (me)
77 Lamar Odom DAL PF
78 Ray Allen BOS SG
79 Stephen Jackson MIL SG
80 James Harden OKC SG
81 Rodney Stuckey DET PG
82 D.J. Augustin CHA PG
83 Nick Young WAS SG
84 Chris Kaman NO C

I wanted Thornton, but settled for Matthews before Crawford was in Portland. I’m not too worried, as Matthews is the starter and Crawford should split time between both guard spots in relief. Odom makes me nervous in Dallas, Jackson’s back is messed up and he’s unhappy with his contract, Harden is coming off the bench and Young has to deal with Jordan Crawford in Washington. This was probably a little early for Kaman, but works if he can stay healthy for the Hornets. Harden would be going earlier if he was starting over Thabo Sefolosha, while Jackson is already dealing with a back issue, and is unhappy with his contract in MIL.

If you're not doing so already and you're still reading this column, I'll assume you'd want to follow me on Twitter. Hit the link. The Daily Dose is about to become a daily event, but plenty happens after it posts, and Twitter, along with the Rotoworld New Blurbs, are the keys to staying ahead of the competition.

Round 8

85 Antawn Jamison CLE PF
86 Jason Kidd DAL PG
87 Kemba Walker CHA SG
88 Channing Frye PHO PF
89 Nicolas Batum POR SF
90 Jordan Crawford WAS SG
91 Boris Diaw CHA SF
92 Jarrett Jack NO PG
93 Darren Collison IND PG (me)
94 Corey Maggette CHA SF
95 Caron Butler LAC SF
96 Kris Humphries NJ PF

Jason Kidd in Round 8? Welcome to 2011-12. I’m not a huge Collison fan, but he should hold the starting job and was one of the best point guards available. I would not draft Maggette this season due to his injury history, while Jamison and Butler are also going to struggle to stay healthy. Jack is a nice sleeper pick as the PG in New Orleans, and Humphries could work out if he re-signs with Jersey. However, I would have waited on him. Batum is sneaky this year, and while minutes could be an issue, he’s too good to sit on the Blazers’ bench. Diaw is going to start at C for CHA and looks promising, despite adding so lbs over the offseason.

Round 9

97 Jason Richardson ORL SG
98 Thaddeus Young PHI SF
99 Chauncey Billups LAC PG
100 Toney Douglas NY SG (me)
101 DeAndre Jordan LAC C
102 Derrick Williams PF
103 J.J. Hickson SAC PF
104 Tyrus Thomas CHA PF
105 Paul George IND SG
106 Emeka Okafor NO C
107 Andre Miller DEN PG
108 Chuck Hayes SAC C

I wish I would have taken DeAndre Jordan instead of Toney Douglas, but Baron Davis wasn’t in NY yet. Douglas is still the starter and I imagine Davis won’t play more than 35 games or so this season, so I’m still OK with owning Douglas as of now. Paul George is another guy I really wanted and is my favorite pick of this round. Target him. Chuck Hayes’ season and career are in jeopardy due to a heart issue, which is sad. Don’t draft him. Billups looked fantastic on Monday night and should hit a ton of threes starting at SG for the Clips. Ty Thomas looked good until he rolled an ankle on Monday.

Round 10

109 Anderson Varejao CLE C
110 John Salmons SAC SG
111 Ben Gordon DET SG
112 Gerald Henderson CHA SG
113 Jamal Crawford POR SG
114 Landry Fields NY SG
115 Jason Terry DAL SG
116 Jameer Nelson ORL PG
117 Jeff Teague ATL PG (me)
118 Derrick Favors UTA PF
119 Samuel Dalembert SAC C
120 Tyler Hansbrough IND PF

Varejao should get plenty of run in Cleveland and should be a value center, Teague is on all sleeper lists and Dalembert will have a ton of value if he lands in Houston. Hansbrough has to deal with Hibbert and David West, but it sounds like he’s going to get enough minutes to have value. Favors was huge on Monday, but Paul Millsap was out. I think this is a bit of a reach.

Round 11

121 Hedo Turkoglu ORL SF
122 Tayshaun Prince DET SF
123 Jose Calderon TOR PG
124 DeJuan Blair SA C (me)
125 Ricky Rubio MIN PG
126 Jared Dudley PHO SG
127 Rashard Lewis WAS PF
128 Wes Johnson SF
129 Carl Landry NO PF
130 Gordon Hayward UTA SF
131 Grant Hill PHO SF
132 Ramon Sessions CLE PG

A lot of hit or miss guys in round 11. Dudley is intriguing, Lewis could bounce back, and Rubio got off to a nice start in the preseason. I reached for Rubio in another league tonight as the point guards were flying off the board early. I was happy to get Blair here, as he can play center and I’ll need him right away.

Round 12

133 C.J. Miles UTA J. SF
134 Shawn Marion DAL SF
135 Vince Carter DAL SG
136 Brandon Knight DET PG
137 Lou Williams PHI SG
138 Jimmer Fredette SAC PG
139 Richard Hamilton CHI SG
140 Arron Afflalo DEN SG
141 Trevor Ariza NO SF (me)
142 George Hill IND PG
143 O.J. Mayo MEM SG
144 Taj Gibson CHI PF

Afflalo signed with the Nuggets so I expect him to go a little earlier from here on out, while Ariza should get plenty of run at SF for the Hornets. But his shooting is still a huge concern. Miles, Marion, Carter, Knight, Hamilton, Afflalo and Ariza are all likely to start for their teams this season, which is nice value in Round 12. Jimmer is stuck in a crowded backcourt, but is worth a flier this late, while Mayo could see a boost by a trade, or if he replaces Tony Allen in the starting five. Both are possibilities.

Round 13

145 Kendrick Perkins OKC C
146 Evan Turner PHI SG
147 Tiago Splitter SA C
148 Brendan Haywood DAL C (me)
149 Andrei Kirilenko UTA SF
150 Tristan Thompson CLE PF
151 Jermaine O'Neal BOS C
152 Jerryd Bayless TOR PG
153 Patrick Patterson HOU PF
154 Baron Davis CLE PG
155 Beno Udrih MIL PG
156 Amir Johnson TOR PF

I took another starting C here, as Haywood will see most of the minutes at C in Dallas. Bayless is intriguing and could blow up when Calderon pulls a hammy, while Udrih looks useless in fantasy on the Bucks bench. Stay away from Jermaine O’Neal and look for Kirilenko to climb draft boards if he signs with the Nets. I didn’t like the Splitter pick, but was also too high on him last season.

Round 14

157 Ryan Anderson ORL PF
158 Spencer Hawes PHI C
159 Mo Williams LAC PG
160 Brandon Bass BOS PF
161 Udonis Haslem MIA PF
162 Klay Thompson GS SG
163 Anthony Morrow NJ SG
164 Carlos Delfino MIL SF
165 Jason Thompson SAC PF (me)
166 Andris Biedrins GS C
167 Glen Davis ORL PF
168 Jose Juan Barea PG

I got more center action here with Thompson, who is helped by the loss of Hayes, while Morrow should be a great value pick starting at SG for the Nets. Delfino is a sneaky pick and should hit a ton of threes this year. And if he’s healthy and Stephen Jackson isn’t, he’s going to be a draft-day steal.

Round 15

169 Jordan Hill HOU PF
170 Metta World Peace SF LAL
171 Charlie Villanueva DET PF
172 Austin Daye DET SF (me)
173 Tony Allen MEM SG
174 Iman Shumpert NY PG
175 Richard Jefferson SA SF
176 Jan Vesely WAS SF
177 Chase Budinger HOU SF
178 Marcus Camby POR C
179 Ersan Ilyasova MIL PF
180 Drew Gooden MIL PF

I love Austin Daye, but don’t love the fact he’s playing behind Tayshaun Prince for Detroit. Hill is a real sleeper, but will be tough to play if Dalembert ends up in Houston. Villanueva, Allen, RJ, Budinger, Camby and possibly Gooden could all start for their teams this season.
 

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Moneyball: NBA Draft Analysis

Here are the results of a big-money league Rotoworld's Aaron Bruski (click on his name to follow him on Twitter) participated in earlier this week. Despite not working in the industry, most of these guys should be considered experts. There is some serious cash on the line in this league, so we can at least assume they all did their homework. Bruski's brief take on his pick is included before my analysis at the end of each round.

This league is 12 teams, 16 rounds, eight scoring categories (no TOs) and a Roto format. Enjoy.

If you haven't drafted yet, the Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide should be on your list of things to do, immediately. Check it out right HERE.

The NBA Season Pass is ready as well, and you can get it by clicking here.

Round 1

1 LeBron James SF MIA
2 Kevin Durant SF OKC
3 Chris Paul PG LAC
4 Derrick Rose PG CHI
5 Kevin Love PF MIN
6 Dwyane Wade SG MIA
7 Russell Westbrook PG OKC
8 Deron Williams PG NJ
9 Dwight Howard C ORL
10 Pau Gasol PF LAL (Bruski)
11 Carmelo Anthony SF NY
12 Monta Ellis SG GS

Bruski's take: Wanted a safe play. I had Pau, Dwight, and Dirk at the bottom of my rankings for Round 1. I don't have any problem with folks projecting them with high Round 2 value, either. It's just a risk management issue with that particular pick. While Monta Ellis (alleged cameraphone issues) and Stephen Curry (wonky ankle) may have higher upside, a potential trade (Ellis) or serious injury (Curry) makes them untouchable in that round. I have both of them still rated at the top of Round 2, and I'm about 73.4 percent sure I'd snag them up if available.

Bruski wanted a safe play and got one with Gasol – especially in Week 1 when Bynum is suspended for four of the Lakers’ six games. LeBron and Durant are going 1 & 2 in almost every draft, but you can’t predict which one will go first in most of them. As usual, Kevin Love was taken very early and there were no surprises in Round 1.

Round 2

1 Stephen Curry PG GS
2 Amare Stoudemire PF NY
3 Dirk Nowitzki PF DAL (Bruski)
4 Blake Griffin PF LAC
5 John Wall PG WAS
6 Al Horford C ATL
7 Al Jefferson C UTA
8 Josh Smith PF ATL
9 LaMarcus Aldridge PF POR
10 Kobe Bryant SG LAL
11 Eric Gordon SG NO
12 Brook Lopez C NJ

Bruski's take: Again went with the safe play and a guy I had ranked in the first round

Bruski took Dirk and while a combo of Pau and Dirk is about as boring as it gets, it’s also a very safe combo. I’m leery of Amare’s rebounding taking a hit with Tyson Chandler in New York, not to mention his knees. Stephen Curry’s already dinged his right ankle but is talking like he’ll play on Sunday, Kobe is going to play through a torn tendon in his wrist, and Brook Lopez is already out for at least half the season thanks to a broken foot (and subsequent surgery). With Eric Gordon driving the train in New Orleans he’s being taken a round higher than he would have been with the Clippers, while John Wall is now a second-rounder, despite never proving himself. High risk, high reward with Wall. And then there’s Blake Griffin, whose Clippers are officially the most exciting team in the NBA.

Round 3

1 Danny Granger SF IND
2 Rajon Rondo PG BOS
3 Rudy Gay SF MEM (Bruski)
4 Greg Monroe PF DET
5 Jrue Holiday PG PHI
6 Kevin Martin SG HOU
7 Steve Nash PG PHO
8 Tyreke Evans PG SAC
9 Zach Randolph PF MEM
10 David Lee PF GS
11 Kyle Lowry PG HOU
12 Andre Iguodala SF PHI

Bruski's take: Rudy was a first round value guy before he got hurt and I don't see why he can't do it again.

Gay was having a career year when he went down last year and has looked good in the preseason. Again, looks like another safe pick, which is surprising for a guy coming off shoulder surgery. I have forgiven Danny Granger for past trespasses against me and have been drafting him this year. You guys probably know I love Greg Monroe this year, but seeing him in Round 3 is a bit surprising. I would think most of you can get him in Round 4, and possibly Round 5. I also love Jrue Holiday and have been writing that if you want him, you’ve got to jump on him in Round 3. Guys who concern me a little in Round 3 are Steve Nash and Andre Iguodala. This could be the year Nash finally starts to wear down, while Iguodala doesn’t look for his own shot in Philly. He’s safe, but I didn’t draft either guy in any leagues this year. And yes, Tyreke’s foot scares me a little, but Round 3 still sounds appropriate based on his potential.

Round 4

1 Manu Ginobili SG SA
2 JaVale McGee C WAS
3 Serge Ibaka PF OKC
4 Joe Johnson SG ATL
5 Chris Bosh PF MIA
6 Paul Millsap PF UTA
7 Gerald Wallace SF POR
8 Marc Gasol C MEM 1 min
9 Joakim Noah C CHI
10 Dorell Wright SF GS (Bruski)
11 Nene C DEN
12 Ty Lawson PG DEN

Bruski's take: I had Wright falling off a bit but now I've erased those concerns because of problems with Stephen Curry (ankle) and Monta Ellis (legal).

JaVale McGee’s stock continues to rise and he’s going no later than Round 5 now. I love him. I think Joe Johnson is going to have a comeback season with Jamal Crawford in Portland and he should return solid value. Paul Millsap’s quad injury, as well as the strong play of Derrick Favors, are red flags and I’m currently passing on him where possible. I’m guessing Gasol and Noah will go before McGee in most drafts, but Rotoworld readers will probably take McGee first. Lawson looks fantastic in Denver, although my guess is you can get him in Round 5. I’ve actually been buying on Bosh this year, which feels strange.

Round 5

1 Paul Pierce SF BOS 1 min 12 sec
2 Raymond Felton PG POR
3 Marcin Gortat C PHO (Bruski)
4 Andrew Bogut C MIL
5 Danilo Gallinari SF DEN
6 Wesley Matthews SG POR
7 Jason Kidd PG DAL
8 Tony Parker PG SA
9 Andrea Bargnani C TOR
10 Andrew Bynum C LAL
11 Roy Hibbert C IND
12 Carlos Boozer PF CHI

Bruski's take: Gortat’s thumb was injured at the time of the draft but it didn't appear to be serious....thought about trying to let him slip but decided against it.

Jason Kidd went much, much later in our 30-team draft (105<SUP>th</SUP> pick) and I don’t own him anywhere. Nor do I want to. More solid centers off the board here, as the pickings are about to slim in the middle. Bynum’s four-game suspension in Week 1 hurts, but at least he went out with a huge bang in his last preseason game. If Bogut can somehow stay healthy, he’s an absolute 5<SUP>th</SUP>-round steal. Just beware of that free throw percentage.

Round 6

1 Andray Blatche PF WAS
2 DeMarcus Cousins C SAC
3 Mike Conley PG MEM
4 Brandon Jennings PG MIL
5 Devin Harris PG UTA
6 Ray Allen SG BOS
7 Kyrie Irving PG CLE
8 Tyson Chandler C NY
9 Lamar Odom PF DAL
10 James Harden SG OKC (Bruski)
11 Elton Brand PF PHI
12 Chris Kaman C NO

Bruski's take: James Harden had low Round-5 per-game value in 8-cat the last two months of the season and I have him improving greatly.

Everyone loves Harden this year but I have been taking Marcus Thornton instead. If Harden ends up winning the job over Thabo Sefolosha, he’s a Round 6 steal. Kyrie Irving went in Round 6 and I’ve consistently seen him taken in Rounds 4, 5 and 6. Maybe everyone is reaching for him, but he’s going to play and has loads of talent. DeMarcus Cousins will have to contend with Chuck Hayes, J.J. Hickson and Jason Thompson for rebounds and touches, as the entire Kings team is a big cluster. Conley’s about as safe as they come, while Kaman’s a bit risky here possibly coming off the bench in New Orleans.

Round 7

1 DeAndre Jordan C LAC
2 Chauncey Billups PG LAC
3 Channing Frye PF PHO (Bruski)
4 Jarrett Jack PG NO
5 Luol Deng SF CHI
6 Kevin Garnett PF BOS
7 David West PF IND
8 Luis Scola PF HOU
9 Marcus Thornton PG SAC
10 Michael Beasley PF MIN
11 Tim Duncan PF SA
12 Samuel Dalembert C SAC

Bruski's take: Frye had Round 5-6 value last year and I like PHO to need his outside shooting, and see his numbers holding, relatively speaking.

I am a huge DeAndre Jordan fan, despite the fact that my four year old son has just as much of a chance as DJ at hitting a free throw. He’s playing with confidence and could become an absolute monster on the boards and blocks this year. If you can get him in Round 7, I think you’ve done well. Billups is a sneaky-good pick now that he’s free to stand out in the deep and launch wide-open 3-pointers for the Clippers. Plus he’ll qualify at both guard spots, making him look that much better. Jack’s a real popular PG pick running the show in New Orleans, and I’m on board, while Marcus Thornton should have a big year in Sacramento if he can keep the ball out of his teammates’ hands. Kevin Garnett is not on any of my teams given all the back-to-backs and compact schedule and I can say the same for Tim Duncan. Michael Beasley appears to be the only option at SF in Minnesota, so I’m high on him right now, while Sammy Dalembert got a great landing spot in Houston and should be a solid No. 1 center this season…once he figures out what Kevin McHale wants from him.

Round 8

1 Rodney Stuckey PG DET
2 D.J. Augustin PG CHA
3 Darren Collison PG IND
4 Paul George SG IND
5 Jared Dudley SG PHO
6 Emeka Okafor C NO
7 Nicolas Batum SF POR
8 Ryan Anderson PF ORL
9 Toney Douglas SG NY
10 Jeff Teague PG ATL (Bruski)
11 Anderson Varejao C CLE
12 Arron Afflalo SG DEN

Bruski's take: My strategy of waiting on PGs hinged a lot on grabbing one of the sleepers, and I got one here in Teague. I was hoping to grab a bit better PG a round or two earlier though.

This is pretty common this year, in that point guards go early and quickly. When you look at a list or think about the fact there are 30 of them out there, you get the sense that there is some depth at the position. But really, if you don’t have one of the good ones locked up by the end of Round 4, it’s a crap shoot. I love Paul George as a late-round sleeper, but was a little surprised to see him taken this early. Jared Dudley will be pushed by Shannon Brown, Darren Collison will be pushed by George Hill, Rodney Stuckey will be pushed by Brandon Knight and Toney Douglas will have to deal with the eventual return of Baron Davis. You get the idea. I also love the Varejao pick, as the only competition he’ll really have, outside of injury concerns, is rookie Tristan Thompson.

Round 9

1 Kris Humphries PF NJ
2 Jameer Nelson PG ORL
3 Stephen Jackson SG MIL (Bruski)
4 Ricky Rubio PG MIN
5 DeMar DeRozan SG TOR
6 Ed Davis PF TOR
7 Antawn Jamison PF CLE
8 Kemba Walker SG CHA
9 Baron Davis PG NY
10 J.J. Hickson PF SAC
11 Boris Diaw SF CHA
12 Jose Calderon PG TOR

Bruski's take: Steve Jax fell, it happened.

Kris Humprhies gets a huge boost with news that Brook Lopez is out for at least half the season (as does Mehmet Okur, who is now New Jersey’s likely starting center, but wasn’t at the time of this draft). Jameer Nelson had a nice preseason, Stephen Jackson’s back is sketchy, while Ricky Rubio actually impressed most of us in the preseason. At least we know he’s going to play. Baron Davis is a decent stash and could be nice for the Knicks once he’s healthy, but I doubt he’ll make it through more than 35 games this year. Diaw looks like he lived on a diet of beer and oreos in the offseason, but he’s going to get a ton of run for the Bobcats and I have been drafting him in most leagues. Jose Calderon’s days could be numbered and if you draft him, you might as well grab Jerryd Bayless too.

Round 10

1 Jason Richardson SG ORL
2 Evan Turner SG PHI
3 Jason Terry SG DAL
4 DeJuan Blair C SA
5 Kendrick Perkins C OKC
6 Caron Butler SF LAC
7 Kenneth Faried PF DEN
8 Tyrus Thomas PF CHA
9 Tony Allen SG MEM
10 Amir Johnson PF TOR (Bruski)
11 Andrei Kirilenko SF UTA
12 Thaddeus Young SF PHI

Bruski's take: Amir had eighth-round per-game value in a relatively down year. I'm banking on small improvements here.

Evan Turner’s not starting but looked much improved in preseason and will get starter’s minutes. I Like this pick quite a bit. DeJuan Blair fell further than this in most of my drafts but he’s young and should get a ton of minutes, meaning this could finally be the breakout season. Kenneth Faried in Round 10 is bold, and I don’t really get it. Tyrus Thomas will start for Charlotte and this is possibly his last chance. He’s either going to turn the corner or forever be a bust. I wish I would have drafted him more this year, even though he breaks my heart every season. As for Amir Johnson, he'll have to battle with Ed Davis and could be hit or miss. Bruski thinks he'll improve, but Davis isn't going to go away.

Round 11

1 Derrick Williams PF MIN
2 Nick Young SG WAS
3 Brandon Knight PG DET (Bruski)
4 Corey Maggette SF CHA
5 Jimmer Fredette PG SAC
6 Derrick Favors PF UTA
7 Marcus Camby C POR
8 Carlos Delfino SF MIL
9 Gordon Hayward SF UTA
10 Tyler Hansbrough PF IND
11 C.J. Miles SF UTA
12 Richard Hamilton SG CHI

Bruski's take: I need this Knight pick to pan out because I'm low on assists.

Derrick Williams, Brandon Knight, Jimmer Fredette, Derrick Favors, Tyler Hansbrough, C.J. Miles and Richard Hamilton were all nice upside picks. I particularly like the last four on that list, as the minutes and potential is there. Favors could even end up being as valuable as Paul Millsap in Utah. This is just too early for Marcus Camby and his banged up 38-year-old body.

Round 12

1 Mo Williams PG LAC
2 Andre Miller PG DEN
3 Jordan Crawford SG WAS
4 Anthony Morrow SG NJ
5 Glen Davis PF ORL
6 Jamal Crawford SG POR
7 Ramon Sessions PG CLE
8 Austin Daye SF DET
9 Trevor Ariza SF NO
10 Jerryd Bayless PG TOR (Bruski)
11 Brendan Haywood C DAL
12 Jose Juan Barea PG MIN

Bruski's take: I love this Bayless pick, as he might have low-end value right off the bat.

Guys were trying to get one last point guard in this round, and Bruski’s pick of Bayless was a good one. I already almost like him more than Calderon and he’s one hamstring injury away from being the starter in Toronto. It’s probably going to happen. Jordan Crawford’s shot selection and FGP is scary, but when he gets hot, he’s as good a scorer as anyone in the league. I’m a huge Austin Daye fan and he should end up really pushing Tayshaun Prince for his job. Brendan Haywood is one of the last remaining starting centers, but his preseason was not good. Anthony Morrow, Glen Davis and Trevor Ariza should all be starting this year, and I like Morrow and Ariza more than Davis in Orlando.

Round 13

1 Andris Biedrins C GS
2 Spencer Hawes C PHI
3 Gerald Henderson SG CHA (Bruski)
4 George Hill PG IND
5 Wes Johnson SF MIN
6 Klay Thompson SG GS
7 Landry Fields SG NY
8 Beno Udrih PG MIL
9 Darko Milicic C MIN
10 Tristan Thompson PF CLE
11 Omri Casspi SF CLE
12 John Salmons SG SAC

Bruski's take: Henderson had late-round value last year and I’m again sticking to the trend of young guys on the upswing late.

Andris Biedrins, Spencer Hawes and Darko Milicic are all long shots, but all starting, making the worth a shot for those desperate for a center late. I liked Bruski’s Henderson pick, while Tristan Thompson should have a nice rookie season. Omri Casspi is sneaky as a starter in CLE and looked good in his preseason game, while Salmons is a guy I wouldn’t bother drafting in such a crowded rotation in Sacramento.

Round 14

1 Jermaine O'Neal C BOS
2 Robin Lopez C PHO
3 Chase Budinger SF HOU
4 Jason Thompson PF SAC
5 Timofey Mozgov C DEN
6 Shawn Marion SF DAL
7 Iman Shumpert PG NY
8 Brandon Bass PF BOS
9 Rudy Fernandez SG DEN
10 Bismack Biyombo PF CHA (Bruski)
11 Rashard Lewis PF WAS
12 Ben Gordon SG DET

Bruski's take: I'm pegging Biyombo at 30+ mpg by the halfway point, but I may be the only one.

Jermaine O’Neal looks like a wasted pick to me, as he simply won’t stay healthy, despite being the only C in Boston. Robin Lopez is supposedly going to share time with Marcin Gortat in PHO and might be worth a flier in your league. Chase Budinger should start for HOU and is a nice pick this late, while Rudy Fernandez is going to be buzz killed by Arron Afflalo in Denver. I see a bounce-back season coming from Ben Gordon, while Rashard Lewis still has a glimmer of hope at salvaging his career. Iman Shumpert is a nice sleeper, but he could have probably waited until Round 16 to get him.

Round 15

1 Roddy Beaubois PG DAL
2 Hedo Turkoglu SF ORL
3 Grant Hill SF PHO (Bruski)
4 Patrick Patterson PF HOU
5 Shannon Brown PG PHO
6 Jonas Jerebko SF DET
7 O.J. Mayo SG MEM
8 Vince Carter SG DAL
9 Richard Jefferson SF SA
10 Norris Cole PG MIA
11 Taj Gibson PF CHI
12 Chris Andersen PF DEN

Bruski's take: For last two rounds I bought up the SF position in PHO.

I like the Hedo Turkoglu, Grant Hill, Shannon Brown and Jonas Jerebko picks here, but almost every guy taken this late is hit or miss. At least Turk and Hill are starting, while Jerebko should early while Charlie Villanueva serves a suspension. Patrick Patterson looked a lot better before Samuel Dalembert arrived in Houston.

Round 16

1 Josh McRoberts PF LAL
2 Tayshaun Prince SF DET
3 Carl Landry PF NO
4 Chuck Hayes C SAC
5 Jordan Hill PF HOU
6 Lou Williams SG PHI
7 Jan Vesely SF WAS
8 James Johnson PF TOR
9 Gilbert Arenas PG ORL
10 Josh Childress SG PHO (Bruski)
11 Mario Chalmers PG MIA
12 Troy Murphy PF LAL

Josh McRoberts could start for five games while Andrew Bynum is suspended, while Tayshaun Prince, Carl Landry, James Johnson and Mario Chalmers are all starters. And in Round 16, that’s all you can really ask for. Johnson’s an intriguing sleeper and I like targeting him here in most drafts for the potential steals and blocks.
 

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The Blake Griffin Conundrum
More than any other season in recent memory, the lockout-shortened 2011-12 NBA campaign begins with a vast array of unanswered (or in some cases, unanswerable) questions. How will players respond to a schedule more compressed than a FIAT that’s just been stomped by a brontosaurus? Will rookies have enough time to get acclimated and produce? Will veterans like Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett even be able to walk come April? And on a more existential note, what does it mean for world peace when the player named after it can barely make a wide-open jumper?

So as the first full week of the NBA season begins – and the fourth season of Roundball Stew with it – we attempt to answer some of the key questions that are on all of our minds (or at least on mine). Off we go…

Will Blake Griffin produce top-25 fantasy value? My belief, I regret to say, is no. And the reasoning behind that belief is simple: Through three games (two preseason games plus Sunday night’s opener), Griffin has shot 66.7 percent (16-for-24) from the line and collected exactly zero blocks. Those were his two most glaring statistical weaknesses as a rookie, and though I can see him improving in points, rebounds and even steals this season, the missed free throws and lack of blocks will continue to restrict his value.
www.rapsports.com
And for the record, I have absolutely no Griffin bias – he happens to be one of my favorite players in real life. Unfortunately, he doesn’t swat (or even attempt to swat) enough shots on defense to balance out the missed free throws. At this point, I would be stunned to see him land in the top-25, and wouldn’t be shocked to see him ranked outside the top-50 (he was 83<SUP>rd</SUP> in Basketball Monster’s 9-category rankings last year).

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

Is this the year that Pau Gasol and Amare Stoudemire impersonate Kevin Love and start hoisting a ton of threes? The short answer is no, but it is notable that Pau attempted two threes in the Lakers’ opener after shooting one per game (and going 1-for-2) in the preseason. Additionally, there’s the fact that Stoudemire – who’s playing more on the perimeter than ever before – went 2-for-2 on threes in the Knicks’ opener after averaging one attempt per game (and going 0-for-2) in the preseason. There’s no reason to think that either of these PF/C’s is going to approach 1.0 threes per game, but even 0.5 per game would be significant for their value, and both have the shooting range to do it.

Which rookie other than Kyrie Irving is ready to make the biggest fantasy impact in 2011-12? That would be
Kemba Walker, who visibly elevates the Charlotte offense to another speed when entering the game, not to mention the fact that Bobcats owner Michael Jordan has in multiple instances (including on a Charlotte preseason broadcast) compared Walker’s competitive drive to his own. Walker isn’t likely to immediately supplant D.J. Augustin as the starting PG, but I would expect him to be playing 30-plus minutes per game sooner rather than later.

Other rookies with intriguing potential:
Brandon Knight (who could get significant run at PG for the Pistons early), Markieff Morris, who is fighting Channing Frye for playing time but represents a higher-upside version of Frye, and Jimmer Fredette, who’s a backup right now but should still play plenty (and whose shooting range definitely translates to the NBA). Looking deeper, there’s also no doubt in my mind that Warriors swingman Klay Thompson is ready to produce if/when Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis or Dorell Wright suffers an injury.

Who are some early mid-round picks I’m somewhat deliriously excited about? A few that come to mind are
Kyle Lowry, Marcus Thornton and Danilo Gallinari. Despite a coaching change in Houston (Rick Adelman to Kevin McHale), I see Lowry improving on his breakout 2010-11 to become a potential top-25 fantasy option. Meanwhile, I envision Thornton finding a way to score 18-plus points per game with plenty of threes despite playing alongside chronic over-dribbler Tyreke Evans. And Gallinari is set to become Denver's No. 1 scoring option, giving the 23-year-old a chance to reach the 18-20 ppg range for the first time in his career.

Who are some of my other favorite unheralded players? To be clear, I’m talking about players who were likely taken toward the end of your draft, or in more rare cases might be available on waivers if you’re playing in a very shallow league. And some of the names that fit this category are:
Gerald Henderson (who may get off to a slow start after offseason surgery but should eventually be worth the wait) and Paul George, who’s gotten enough buzz at this point that he might not really be unheralded anymore. Another player I'll throw into this category is Ryan Anderson, whose value is quickly ascending after his 25-point, nine-rebound, six-three opener. I would still be surprised to see Anderson average more than 15 ppg or so, but the combo of points, threes and blocks makes him a very promising option right now.

What player consistently drafted outside the first round has the best chance to produce top-10 value?
My prediction: John Wall. Turnovers (3.8), a lack of threes (0.5), injuries and rough shooting (41.0 percent from the field) were big issues during his rookie year, but let's not forget that Wall averaged 17.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 9.1 apg, 3.1 spg and 1.0 threes last November, and has a strong shot to produce top-20 value even if top-10 is a bit ambitious (and it probably is).

During this compressed schedule, what’s the smart philosophy on aging players such as Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan and Jason Kidd? I’ll admit some bias here because I’m bored by their lack of upside, but nevertheless, I’m staying far away from these three, because though they’re still able to produce when active, I see too much potential for injury and/or forced nights off in Garnett and Duncan’s future. And the 38-year-old Kidd was already maddeningly inconsistent even without a crazy schedule.

A few exceptions to my avoid-players-in-mid-30’s rule:
Chauncey Billups (jumper is still quite buttery, and he’s playing with something to prove), Ray Allen (still somewhat ageless at age 36) and Manu Ginobili, who may miss some games but provides enough value when active to make up for it. I also wouldn’t worry too much about Steve Nash, because I trust the mad scientist Phoenix training staff to keep the 37-year-old on the court.

Is the column over already? Indeed it is. But the Stew will be here every Monday in an effort to make some sense of the mayhem that will undoubtedly be the 2011-12 campaign. And next week, we come to you with our boldest, most futuristic column yet – and by that I mean a column written in the year 2012. Happy New Year.
 

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Dose: Buy, Sell & Hold
Well Monday night in the NBA was as busy a night as you’ll see this season. Twenty-four teams were in action and Rotoworld published, in my estimation, 160 game-related news blurbs after the action kicked off last night. Rather than get into each game with you, I’m going to try something new with the format and hit on what should really matter to fantasy owners: Who should be picked up or targeted in trades, who should be held, and who can be dumped or put on the trading block. Let me know what you think in an email or on Twitter.

The NBA Season Pass and Draft Guide are available, so check them out.

The Rotoworld NBA Injury Page should have you covered, so I didn't dive into them too much here today.

I will, however, let you know that Stephen Curry is not expected to play on Wednesday after re-spraining his right ankle again last night after landing on the foot of Kyle Korver. He was awesome last night, but just can't keep his ankle healthy. Feel free to trade him, but be careful not to sell too low on him. Few players are as valuable when he's clicking on all cylinders.

Hot Buys

It looks like I was wrong about Kris Humphries, who blew up for 21 points and 16 boards on 9-of-14 shooting last night. I had trouble getting on his bandwagon last season, and obviously still hadn’t come around when he signed with the Nets recently. Mehmet Okur just arrived and is figuring things out, but Humphries is going to get a ton of run this season. Congratulations if you picked him up.

Spencer Hawes exploded and just missed a triple-double last night with 10 points, 14 rebounds, nine assists, two steals and a block against the Blazers. I actually had him in a couple lineups, but certainly didn’t see this coming. He’s a serviceable fantasy center, but this is likely to be the high point of his season. But if you’re struggling with centers like Brendan Haywood or Timofey Mozgov, I’d dump them for Hawes without question. Lou Williams hit 9-of-17 shots and three 3-pointers for 25 points on Monday, but not much else. He came off the bench and outperformed every other guard on the team, including Jrue Holiday. I love Lou-Will’s ability to score and think he should play a lot of minutes for the Sixers this season, possibly rendering Jodie Meeks useless. If you need a guard and Lou is sitting out there, pick him up and see what happens.

Gerald Henderson and Boris Diaw were on fire for the Bobcats, as Hendo scored 18 points and grabbed nine rebounds, while Diaw just missed a triple-double with nine points, 11 boards, nine assists, two blocks and a 3-pointer. Pick Henderson up, and make sure Diaw was drafted in your league. He's the size of a small tank, apparently binge eating in the offseason, but I still tried to draft him in all my leagues.

Paul George met expectations for the Pacers with three 3-pointers, 12 points, seven rebounds, a steal and a block. If he’s somehow still out there, get him. Tyler Hansbrough doesn’t care that David West is starting in front of him and had 15 points and 13 boards last night. I started drafting Hansbrough late in fantasy leagues and it looks like he should hold value as long as he’s healthy.

Jordan Crawford started for the Wizards over Nick Young and had 15 points, four rebounds, two steals in 28 minutes on 7-of-12 shooting. As long as he’s starting, he should be owned in fantasy leagues.

Jonas Jerebko started in place of Charlie Villanueva and had 17 points, five rebounds, a steal and a block against the Pacers, and it’s possible he could hold the job even when CV returns. JJ is not a must-add player, but certainly worth a flier if you have room. Rodney Stuckey had 17 points, six assists, two steals, a block and two 3-pointers last night, and those worries about Brandon Knight cramping his style appear to be unfounded. In fact, Stuckey looks even better this season than he did a year ago, making him a nice trade target.

Andre Miller somehow keeps producing for the Nuggets and had 18 points, five rebounds, five assists, three steals, a block and two 3-pointers. I can’t see him putting up another line like that any time soon, but if he’s available in your league, pick him up. Just keep in mind that Arron Afflalo missed all of training camp and could take a week or so to get up to speed. And if you already own Miller, this looks like a great time to sell him off at a nice price.

Jose Calderon had 15 points, 11 assists and three 3-pointers last night and should be good to go as long as he’s healthy and starting for the Raptors. We were down on him coming in and his next injury could be just around the corner, but for now, Calderon looks like a must-start in fantasy. James Johnson came off the bench for the Raptors last night, but led his team with 36 minutes and put up a fantasy-friendly stat line with five points, six rebounds, five assists, two steals, three blocks and a 3-pointer. I’ve been touting him a bit lately and he came through last night. I say pick him up in any league where you can afford to have a low-scoring producer on your roster. Amir Johnson not only started for the Raps, but had 13 points, 13 boards, a steal and three blocks last night. Many folks were worried about Ed Davis ruining Amir, but that was not the case last night. Davis came off the bench for 14 points, seven boards and two blocks in just 18 minutes, so hold onto him.

Ramon Sessions came off the bench behind rookie Kyrie Irving and blew up for 18 points, four boards, six dimes, a steal and two 3-pointers on 6-of-12 shooting. Irving is going to get better with time, but for now, Sessions looks like he should get serious run and be a sneaky fantasy player to own.

Marcus Camby played through his knee injury and had six points, 13 boards, six dimes and two blocks in a win over the Sixers. Yeah, I don’t believe it either, but as long as Camby is healthy, it looks like he’s worth owning in most leagues. Be careful of cutting a good player for him though, as his knee could pop at any second, not to mention the fact he’s almost 38.

There was early talk that Robin Lopez might start over Marcin Gortat, which I didn’t really believe, and then Lopez posted 21 points and seven rebounds last night as the Suns fell to the Hornets. I’m officially intrigued and have put in for Lopez in deeper leagues. It looks like he’ll get a timeshare with Gortat and looks like a much better player to own than Mozgov.

Tiago Splitter got 33 minutes last night and finished with five points, eight rebounds, two steals and two blocks in 33 minutes, while starter DeJuan Blair played just 10 minutes and committed four fouls. Of course, I was high on Splitter last year and Blair for this campaign, so Gregg Popovich decided to mix things up. In the long run, these two will probably trade off hot streaks all season, but Blair is only 6’ 7” tall, which may be bugging Popovich. Feel free to take a flier on Splitter, or to dump Blair, but be prepared for Popovich to continue to keep these guys, as well as their fantasy owners, guessing.

Terrence Williams came off the bench for the Rockets and had 13 points, six boards and two assists on 5-of-12 shooting in 26 minutes. Kevin Martin and Chase Budinger both had off nights so Kevin McHale gave T-Will some burn. And while it’s hard to get too excited about Williams after a couple seasons of duping fantasy owners, he at least has my attention again. Take a flier in deep leagues and put him on your radar in all others.

Metta World Peace had 19 points, four boards, four assists, a steal and a block last night, and while I would normally blow this line off, the Lakers are reeling. He’s now actually one of the better players on the team and is going to have to produce for them to win games. I mean, Devin Ebanks and Josh McRoberts are starting for the Lakers right now. Metta’s field goal percentage and shot selection are downright scary, but I think the production should come simply because of a lack of options in for Mike Brown. Give him a look if he’s on your waiver wire (and I bet he is). Just don’t search for him under the name Ron Artest.

The Rest

Damion James – 6 points, 14 rebounds, starting for Nets and played 40 minutes.
Jarrett Jack – Suspension is over, get him in your lineup.
Samuel Dalembert – 10 points, 5 boards, 2 steals, 3 blocks in HOU debut. Pick him up now.
J.J. Redick – 20 points on 8-of-12 shooting, J-Rich is struggling. Worth a close look.
Ryan Anderson – Back to earth w/ 8 points, 5 boards, 2 threes, but should be owned in most.
Markieff Morris – 7 points, 9 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks – Keep an eye on him in Phoenix.
Anderson Varejao – Double-double and they should keep coming.
Hedo Turkoglu – Bounced back with big line, pick him up if he was dropped after Sunday’s dud.
Al Harrington – 18 points, 5 rebounds, 2 threes for Denver. Safe, but not much upside.

<!--RW-->Hold On

Serge Ibaka played just 20 minutes last night and had six points, six rebounds and a block, and while that was better than Sunday’s disaster, the minutes he’s getting from Scott Brooks are a huge concern. And that concern was there last year too, as Brooks constantly seemed to toy with Ibaka’s run. In fact, in looking at his game log from a year ago this week, in four consecutive games Ibaka’s minutes were 19, 29, 15 and 31. He’ll be frustrating to own at times, but I think it’s a mistake to let him go unless you’ve already got a lot of blocks and are going to struggle to score points.

Here is a list of more players I think it’s best to hang onto despite some funky numbers early.

Greg Monroe – 8 points, 7 rebounds, foul trouble. Bounce back is coming.
Anthony Morrow – 16 points, two 3-pointers, but shot just 4-of-13.
Mehmet Okur – 5 rebounds in 20 minutes, but he’ll only get better from here.
Nick Young – 16 points, a minor foot injury and coming off the bench, but worth holding for now.
John Wall – Slow start last night, but obviously not droppable.
Kevin Martin – 1-of-10, reports that he’s not happy in Houston, but too good to let go.
Chase Budinger – 1-of-5 for 3 points but give him two more starts before moving on.
Ed Davis – Came off bench but did serious work in 18 minutes.
Kyrie Irving – Shaky debut on 2-of-12 shooting, but can only get better.
Jason Richardson – A pair of early duds, but should turn it on soon. Buy low.
Antawn Jamison – Terrible shooting last night, but have to love 20 shot attempts.
D.J. Augustin – Big line and an ankle injury, Kemba Walker won’t ruin him – at least early.
Kemba Walker – 13 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 3-of-10 shooting. Let him figure this out.
Stephen Jackson – 17 minutes and six fouls against his former team. Ouch.
Darko Milicic – 12 points and 3 rebounds, but worth a look as long as Nikola Pekovic is out.
Ricky Rubio – 6 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists. Tough to ask for much more at this point.
Derrick Williams – Like Rubio, nice debut with 13 points and 6 boards.
Corey Maggette – 12 points and 7 boards in 39 minutes. Roll with him while he’s healthy.
Jrue Holiday – Tough night and a tough line for owners. No worries.
Evan Turner – Slow start with 10 points but should be better soon.
Carl Landry – Started with 14 points and 7 rebounds, sounds about right.
Chris Kaman – 10 points and five boards off Hornets bench, but I bet he’s better in next one.
Jared Dudley – 3-of-11 for 9 points, 8 boards. Give the Suns a week to figure this out.
Jamal Crawford – 12 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals, 2 3-pointers. Patience in Portland.
Nicolas Batum – 10 points, five boards, 2 3-pointers. Too much talent to drop him.
Richard Hamilton – Two disappointing lines with Bulls, I’m giving him two more starts.
Carlos Boozer – Beast on Sunday, 6 points and 3 rebounds on Monday.
Channing Frye - 1-of-6 for three points. The slump is on, but I’d try to give him a couple more chances.
Andris Biedrins – Very nice on Sunday, disaster on Monday. Still worth holding for now.
Grant Hill – Like the rest of his Suns teammates, we’re only one game in. Patience.
Dorell Wright – A little better on Monday, but still not up to speed. Buy low target.
Kobe Bryant – 29 points Monday. Wrist a concern, but he’ll keep playing if Lakers start winning.
Chuck Hayes – Another guy I don’t love, but keeps proving me wrong.
Arron Afflalo – 11 points in opener and missed training camp. Should be better soon.
Tyrus Thomas – Hopefully he’s back soon from ankle injury. Intriguing as starter.

The Dump

Here’s a list of guys you can consider dropping/moving if you’ve got some hot free agents you want to pick up. And just because a player is on this list doesn’t mean I think he should automatically be dropped.

Vince Carter – Struggling in Dallas, team is off to terrible start, and he’s just old.
Brandon Knight – Keep him in a keeper league, but it could take him a while to get going.
Austin Daye – I love this kid and am not giving up on him yet, but I’m stubborn.
Rashard Lewis – Like Vince, he may never recapture the magic.
George Hill – Pacers guard struggled in Game 1 and I just don’t see him blowing up.
Jordan Hill – Arrival of Samuel Dalembert in Houston should crush his value.
Shaun Livingston – Big line on Monday night, but has fluke written all over it.
Beno Udrih – Ditto.
Tony Allen – Started and played 15 minutes for Memphis. SG a black hole for fantasy in MEM.
O.J. Mayo – Played 17 minutes out of his doghouse last night.
John Salmons – Looked nice for Kings last night, but just too crowded for my liking.
Jimmer Fredette – 25 minutes, 6 points, 3 assists – Tyreke and Thornton are the answer.
J.J. Hickson – Arrival of Chuck Hayes crushes his value.
Jerryd Bayless – Better served as hot pickup w/ Calderon injury then wasting away on your bench.
Anthony Parker – 8 points in 26 minutes, will be pushed by Daniel Gibson and Sessions.
Glen Davis – Ryan Anderson looks like the guy in Orlando, but that could change in a week.
Omri Casspi – Dreadful opener on Monday. Try to be patient with him, but cut if you must.
Wes Johnson – Another bomb in Minnesota and I don’t think you can trust him.
Luke Ridnour – Jose Juan Barea and Rubio looked good last night, while Ridnour did not.
Bismack Biyombo – Only one game in, but it could be a long, uphill climb owning him.
Jodie Meeks – Evan Turner and Lou Williams are going to eat up his minutes, despite starting.
DeJuan Blair – 10 minutes, four fouls, and emergence of Tiago Splitter. Thanks, Pop.
Josh McRoberts – Toe injury, 2 points on Monday and Bynum will be back real soon.
Matt Barnes – Not starting, possible suspension coming, so forget about him.
Timofey Mozgov – I’d like to be patient, but would rather own Hawes or Robin Lopez.
Brendan Haywood – 7 & 5 last night, but I’d rather own Hawes or Lopez.
Brook Lopez – Broken foot is going to ruin his season and you need healthy bodies.
 

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Lockout Basketball

It was an easy call coming into this season to point to the lockout and find a myriad of issues facing NBA players, teams, and fantasy owners alike. While we had seen some of the side effects in the first two nights of action, the lockout’s impact on the game was on full display Tuesday night. Let’s jump right into it, and follow me here on Twitter for real-time news and fantasy advice.

LAKERS AVERT 0-3 START ON THIRD STRAIGHT NIGHT OF BASKETBALL

Tuesday’s matchup with the Jazz looked like a disaster in the making for the Lakers, as they found themselves going against a supposedly fresh-legged Jazz team on the tail end of a back-to-back-to-back. Andrew Bynum was still suspended, Pau Gasol (shoulder) and Josh McRoberts (toe, thumb) were possibly banged up, and Kobe Bryant’s wrist was hanging by a thread.

It turns out the Jazz were the ones out of shape and without answers as the Lakers rolled easily by the score of 96-71. Kobe Bryant scored 26 points on 8-of-17 shooting, and the good news was that he took (and made) more threes than in the two games prior, while also chipping in with eight rebounds, five assists, a steal, and a block.

I have been very outspoken on the issue of his wrist, particularly after screaming from the mountain tops last season when Eric Gordon and Deron Williams got knocked out of action due to the same type of injury. Complicating matters in this Twitter day and age is the fact that players, teams, and media types tend to relay positive information regarding wrist injuries, in part because the players themselves often don’t know the extent of the damage. They need to push themselves to find out if they’re dealing with a dull pain that they can play through, and the key is whether or not the pain is going to continually worsen to the point that surgery becomes inevitable.

In the case of both Gordon and Williams, both reported that they were fine and that their injuries were minor, only to find out that they couldn’t (or shouldn’t) push themselves any further.

Kobe is a different type of animal, though, and after last night’s game listening to him talk about how ridiculous it would be if he sat out, I was admittedly ready to take a step back and turn my red flag into a yellow one. In addition, Mike Brown’s offense has provided early signs that Kobe may be more active both shooting and distributing the ball, and the Mamba’s numbers have seen an uptick over last year’s campaign.

But Kobe’s wrist is still very swollen according to beat writers and he was constantly fidgeting and in pain, and while we all know he will try to play as long as his wrist is still attached to his arm – that could be precisely the thing that sends his wrist down the path of no return. If the swelling is as bad as reports have indicated, I’m not ready to back off my recommendation that owners sell Kobe while he’s tearing up the stat sheet.

Getting a player that is projected to return second or even third round value is a realistic goal, and even if Bean goes nuts this season owners are looking at a small price to pay to cash in their chips on a guy with a ton of mileage, a bum knee, a bad shooting wrist injury, and the potential for rest down the stretch.

PAU SHOULDERING THE LOAD

Pau Gasol said after Tuesday’s game that he thinks his shoulder injury is under control, not that anybody was overly worried about it. He turned in another fine outing with 22 points, nine boards, two steals, and a solid five blocks. Metta World Peace dunked a basketball, which is worth a headline these days, and he continued to be productive with 14 points, five boards, a steal, and a block. Get ready for his value to dry up as Andrew Bynum has just one more game on suspension, and the Lakers’ power forward combo of Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy are going to see their minutes shifted into Peace’s bucket. Devin Ebanks is still quiet, so if you took a flier on him it’s time to let go.

CAPTAIN CRUNCH

While Kobe’s wrist and the Lakers’ struggles were the dominant storyline, the more intriguing story was on Utah’s side of the floor where coach Ty Corbin is treating the season’s first few weeks as training camp, literally. For a guy who coached under Jerry Sloan and is already acclimated to the team one would think he had the major issues worked out. Instead, the Jazz were woefully underprepared and looked like they had played three straight nights, rather than the Lakers.

At the heart of the issue is that Corbin and the Jazz organization are still trying to decide if they should play their young guys from the jump, and they should be, but they’ve gone halfway by starting Raja Bell at shooting guard. C.J. Miles had it hinted to him that he would be the starting small forward, but plans changed and he was slated to come off the bench along with veteran Paul Millsap (quad), who was a game-time decision that ultimately was a go. Second-year wing Gordon Hayward was given the nod at small forward.

Of course, the vets are wondering if the Jazz are throwing in the towel early, but the lack of a clear vision is what’s unsettling them the most according to those around the team.

All of the confusion was evident as the Jazz bickered with one another, and perhaps the most telling problem is that they have yet to name a team captain. Maybe that’s because the guy that deserves it (Millsap) is probably going to go on the trade block in February.

It all culminated in a franchise record loss that saw the Jazz miss 23 of 25 field goals at one point, including an impressively bad 2-of-16 effort from Al Jefferson. He was seen on the bench with a heavy wrap on his right knee, and while nobody made a stink of it that’s the last thing owners spending a second round pick on him wanted to see after his garbage night. Jefferson wasn’t the only one who stunk, as Devin Harris scored just five points with six assists, Bell scored six points and did nothing else, Hayward was limited to seven points, Favors ran into early foul trouble and lasted just 18 minutes, and Miles slumped off the bench with a 1-of-8 mark from the field.

Millsap was one of the Jazz’s few bright spots with 18 points, eight boards, and a block on a 7-of-15 shooting line. One would think after Millsap’s solid outing and Favors’ rough night that the starting job would be up for grabs, but beat writer Brian Smith said after the game that Corbin has “made it clear that Favors has earned a spot in the starting lineup.”

Luckily for Millsap’s owners, he will probably hold more value than was (reasonably) forecast in draft season. Yes, there are a lot of bigs in contention for minutes, but Favors is going to deal with foul trouble and Millsap is comfortable coming off the bench. As for Favors, he should be owned in all leagues as the torch has clearly been passed. He won’t come with a full guarantee due to the aforementioned fouling issue, but he’d have to fully face-plant to not return at least late round value and he has plenty of upside.

As for their teammates, owners would be wise to disregard the results of Tuesday’s game as best they can. Hayward should be owned for at least the next few weeks as long as he is starting, especially knowing the Jazz will want to develop him all season long. Now is a sneaky time to throw a quick ‘buy low’ offer to Jefferson’s owners, as the ice on the knees and shooting line could cause them to panic, and it would be a pretty big surprise if the Jazz snuck a serious knee injury past the Utah media last night.

<!--RW-->CHUCK NORRIS COLE

If you hadn’t heard of rookie PG Norris Cole you’ll surely know him after Tuesday’s 20-point, four-rebound, and four-assist outing that saw him take over, yes take over, the fourth quarter of the Heat’s win over the Celtics. With the Celtics roaring back from a 20-point deficit, Cole took a key charge, hit key free throws late, hit key jumpers left and right, and had the Heat fans chanting ‘MVP.’ Not bad for a guy selected No. 28 overall out of Cleveland State in June. As Ramona Shelburne of ESPN put it, “hasn’t Cleveland given Miami enough?”

Cole has an aggressive scoring mentality and has already earned the trust of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, while Mario Chalmers pulled a Sean Williams and threw up all over himself with four consecutive turnovers to start the second half in an awful outing last night.

The early reports suggest that Cole hasn’t earned the starting job quite yet, but the damage may already be done. Cole adds a legitimate fourth scoring threat to the floor in the Heat’s base lineup, and while it’s easy to dismiss him as having his hands tied playing next to the Super Friends I’m not so sure it’s clear cut. For one, we haven’t seen the Miami Big Three play next to a legitimate scoring point guard, so it’s a bit simplistic to assume they won’t integrate Cole into their scoring plans. Second, Cole will have all the room in the world to operate and will be the poison other teams pick consistently.

Third, they genuinely seem to like the noted hard-worker and wouldn’t it be #HumbleBrag of them to take the rookie and make him their star? I’m only half-kidding, but Cole’s fearless attitude has clearly worn well with the guys that matter.

I’m going to be adding Cole in leagues that I don’t have a stockpile of already startable assets, because as Wade put it after the game, Cole reminded “him a lot of himself.” That’s good enough for me.

Paul Pierce’s absence due to a heel injury will have him shelved until Friday at the soonest, and in the meantime Rajon Rondo had another monster line with 22 points, eight boards, and 12 assists. Ray Allen also picked up the slack and it goes without saying that both will settle down when Pierce returns. Brandon Bass returned to Earth with 13 points and five rebounds, and I’d expect Tuesday’s result more often than his 20 and 11 from Christmas Day.

Chris Bosh bounced back after a slow start Sunday with 18 points, 11 boards, a block, and a three, and after a solid offseason I wouldn’t bet against him too heavily, especially if he wants to drill threes now.

KING-SIZED LETDOWN

If I was a betting man I would have bet on the Kings beating the Lakers on Monday, given the juxtaposition of the two teams’ momentum and the Kings arena situation turning those fans into even crazier nut jobs. The arena was loud, emotional, and covering the finale for ProBasketballTalk last season, that game was easily the most compelling sporting event I’ve attended. The Kings missed their storybook ending that night after a 20-point comeback that left thousands in their seats crying over the thought of losing their team, literally. They weren’t going to be denied on Monday, and it was realistic that they’d have a letdown at the Rose Garden. And that's exactly what they did, falling to the Blazers by the score of 101-79 after storming out to an 12-point first quarter lead.

Tyreke Evans was tentative and finished with just four points on 2-of-8 shooting, while Marcus Thornton showed some of the sticky fingers that would’ve gotten him benched in New Orleans in a 5-for-15 shooting dud. Thornton still managed 15 points, and owners of both players shouldn’t be concerned about their long-term outlook. The Kings are going to run the ball up and down the floor this year and rack up a ton of stats for fantasy owners, and both guys are looking great. Rumors of Tyreke Evans’ conditioning issues were greatly exaggerated, and that’s coming from a guy that was all over Evans for last year’s conditioning issues that caused his plantar fasciitis.

Paul Westphal said before the game that he likes his current starting lineup and that is good news for Chuck Hayes, who right on cue played 27 minutes for the second straight night. He appeared winded at times, and perhaps that’s because he’s playing more defense than his teammates, or just the result of a week off due to heart testing. Hayes finished with solid ninth round value last season, and while he might not see as many minutes as he got last year as Houston’s only center option I like him to have late-round value in 8- and 9-cat formats. Feel free to drop J.J. Hickson, who will be capped by Hayes’ presence, as Hayes is an elite defender that has already taken over as the team’s leader. Westphal is going to rely on him to provide sanity to the youngest team in the NBA.

I have bad news for owners drafting DeMarcus Cousins hoping he would make advances in attitude and shot selection – it’s just not going to happen this season. He’s going to struggle with foul trouble and he will get ejected at least a couple of times due to his hilarious reactions to anything foul related. Heck, he could have been ejected already after cocking his fist back toward Pau Gasol on Monday. Like Blake Griffin, his categorical shortcomings will keep him from justifying his lofty ADP.

BLAZER PUZZLE

The Blazers had an interesting night after letting the Kings hang close for the first half, as Nate McMillan tipped his hand with a few lineup combinations and did a pretty good job in my opinion mixing and matching personnel. Raymond Felton, Wesley Matthews, and Nicolas Batum can be considered last night’s fantasy losers, but none of them are in dire straits.

Felton was pulled late due to conditioning issues, but nobody in the Portland media seemed overly concerned about it so we won’t be either. Matthews left briefly due to a minor back strain and returned later, which may explain his struggles last night. Batum was upset after the game over his lack of playing time, and it’s just a hunch but I get the sense McMillan will throw Batum a bone.

On the winning side of the ledger were Jamal Crawford, Gerald Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Marcus Camby. Camby said after the game that he felt great, which constitutes a win in any sense given his brittle condition. Aldridge is also brittle right now, but only because he’s still getting into game shape. He took an ice bath before the game and said he immediately regretted it, but still managed to put up 24 points against perhaps the league’s best low post defender in Hayes. Aldridge is poised for a big year and if he dropped in drafts due to heart concerns owners are getting a great value.

Crawford didn’t have the best shooting night, hitting just 2-of-11 shots, but continued to solidify his presence as a backup PG and distributor of the basketball, with four assists for the second straight night. The shots will fall and owners should hope he continues to get minutes as the backup PG, as that will keep him from stealing too many minutes from the other wing slots.

Gerald Wallace had the big line of the night for the Blazers, with 25 points, eight boards, five assists, and two blocks, and if after posting No. 6 overall value last year following his trade to Portland we’re not surprised by this type of impact. He’s custom-fit for the Blazers’ athletic lineup, as he can finish in transition and gets great spacing from his teammates to operate within. The only risk is his injury risk, and Wallace could end up being a fantasy game-changer if he can stay healthy.

<!--RW-->HOW TO BURY A 30-20 LINE AND FEEL JUST FINE ABOUT IT

Kevin Love scored 31 points with 20 rebounds in what some could even call an ugly performance, especially if you’re a Bucks fan angry with how many foul calls Love got. He broke multiple Wolves records for foul shooting on Tuesday with a 19-of-24 mark from the stripe, but what was most interesting to me by a wide margin was his weight. I had seen pictures and heard he had gotten into shape, but immediately after I flipped to the game I thought I had seen a Chase Budinger-looking guy sky in for a dunk. It was Love, looking like he hung out with Cousin Balke from the movie True Romance all summer. For a guy who drew numerous ‘love handle’ puns when he entered the league, he now has the even more quickness and leaping ability. That didn’t help him steal the ball or block any shots, of course, and his 6-of-18 shooting mark with no threes put the bow on the ugliest 30-20 line I’ve seen in the last 10 years.

Michael Beasley looks like he has the starting small forward job locked up for the foreseeable future, as he hit some key shots late and finished with 15 points and seven boards, while rookie Derrick Williams looked fairly bad while barely registering on the stat sheet. Williams will have his day, but that day is not today.

Ricky Rubio got some help with J.J. Barea’s hamstring injury, which Rick Adelman said was possibly “more than a day-to-day” injury. We’re not sure if Rubio will collect on Barea’s minutes or if they’ll go to struggling Wesley Johnson or mediocre Wayne Ellington, but I’m fine with taking a flier on Rubio in 12-team leagues with low expectations – particularly if you need the assists. Just remember that his poor shooting will cap his upside and that he is a better in reality than in fantasy right now.

GOT A BUCK?

The Bucks are now 1-1 after their 98-95 win over a sloppy Wolves squad that turned the ball over 25 times, and the two games have been decided by a total of four points. If you’re looking for a sleeper in Scott Skiles’ fantasy killing environment (isn't everyone), it came in the form of rookie forward Jon Leuer. Leuer came off the bench to score 14 points with eight boards, two steals, and two blocks, with a number of key plays including a three-point play late that proved pivotal in the win. He’ll be stuck in a quagmire that includes Drew Gooden, Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Larry Sanders, but Leuer may surprisingly have the talent to rise above the fray. In fact, we have yet to see a negative report since he was taken by the Bucks with the No. 40 pick in this year's NBA draft. He has already taken the backup center minutes behind Andrew Bogut, and owners will want to see if he can secure a 25-plus minutes per game. Some slight derivative of tonight’s output is totally reasonable in that scenario.

Stephen Jackson managed to stay in the game on Tuesday after fouling out in 17 minutes on Monday, and finished with 16 points on an all-too-familiar 7-of-20 shooting line. Jackson slipped far in drafts due to concerns about his back and Skiles’ rotations, but we like him to get his act relatively together before the risk part of the equation dictates his value. If he can return even 80 percent of his normal production, he will likely justify his ADP.

Brandon Jennings had a nice shooting night with 7-of-14 makes, moving him to 1-1 in that department on the year, but the impressive thing about his play is that he has just two turnovers in two games. Never one to turn the ball over too much, perhaps the controlled play will influence his shot selection, but that’s probably just wishful thinking.

JERSEY’S SORE

This was another lockout game, as the Nets hosted the Hawks for their season-opener and were apparently too tired to put up a defense in the 106-70 blowout loss. Like the Jazz, Kings, Wolves, and Celtics, the Nets turned the ball over left and right and didn’t have the legs to play on the second of two nights.

Avery Johnson pulled all of his starters just after halftime and didn’t play any of them more than 25 minutes, leaving rookie Marshon Brooks free to score a team-high 17 points off the bench. We think Brooks has a shot of making it in the NBA with his impressive scoring talent, but there’s no telling where the Nets go from here.

All of them struggled, including Deron Williams (10 points, one assist), with Brooks and Kris Humphries (11 points, six boards, a steal, a block) posting the only respectable lines. Williams looks like a high schooler playing with elementary school teammates, and soon he’s going to want to see some improvement around him. The Nets will, too, after giving up the farm to trade for Williams last year. They know he’s out of there if they don’t roll out the red carpet.

True to Napoleonic form, Johnson is currently starting Johan Petro at center, rather than Williams’ friend and former Jazz teammate Mehmet Okur, who has struggled mightily on the bench. Okur is moving around well – surprisingly well – but he appears to be lost in a chaotic second unit. Starting Okur is not going to change things overnight in New Jersey, but having him available on the pick-and-pop would be just one way to reduce some of the defensive attention Williams has been attracting.

I’d understand if owners are looking to drop Okur, but if you’re in the market for a center or have limited options on the waiver wire, Okur is still a good stash for at least a few more games.

JEFF TEAGUE DIGS THE DEEP BALL

Jeff Teague was so hyped up this preseason that he might have gone before you could get your hands on him, or before you were willing to select him, but Tuesday night he might have made those that passed or waited regret it after he calmly and impressively sank three 3-point shots. After hitting just 18 triples all last season, watching him shoot on Monday I’d be shocked, yes shocked, if he didn’t hit a three per game this season and I’ll even push the prediction to the 1.3 to 1.5 range. Defenders aren’t going to want him to blow by them, and by the looks of things he has no problem rising up and shooting over the top.

Add 3-point shooting to his elite steals capability, his solid blocks, and overall projected improvement and owners were pretty thrilled last night, despite a relatively mellow line of 13 points, three rebounds, and three assists. Teague said his ankle still hurt, but watching him play last night it doesn’t appear to be a big concern.

The rest of the crew wasn’t really needed, so ignore the stat lines for Joe Johnson (11 points), Al Horford (eight points), and Josh Smith (five points). Smith, like Love, looks to be in amazing shape and was leading fast breaks incuding one nice alley oop to Horford. Marvin Williams even looked spry, and it’s possible his back surgery actually helped. He finished with 14 points, nine boards, and two steals in just 22 minutes, and if he does it again he’ll be worth a long look in standard sized leagues.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACTION

Indiana @ Toronto: Watch for potential fireworks between Danny Granger and Leandro Barbosa, after Barbosa was accused of running up the score and showing up Granger and his boys late last year. We’ll be watching Paul George for further signs of a breakout, as the poor man’s Kevin Durant flew up draft boards as the darling of this year’s sleeper crop.

Miami @ Charlotte: Following their national TV win over the Celtics, all eyes will be on Norris Cole to see if he’ll be doing T-Mobile ads soon or hanging with Vanilla Ice on A1A, Beachfront Avenue. Gerald Henderson and Corey Maggette profile better than most to defend LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, so this could be an upset special if you’re looking at whatever home underdog points the Bobcats are going to get. Also keep a close eye on D.J. Augustin’s ankle, as he says he’s fine but he is a candidate to press too hard through injuries with Kemba Walker hot on his tail.

Washington @ Atlanta: The Hawks didn’t burn much energy last night, so they should be good to go against a young Wizards squad already squawking about touches (see Blatche, Andray). Just like Augustin, watch Nick Young’s foot injury – he’s another guy that doesn’t want to be ‘Pipped.’ Jordan Crawford shouldn’t be available in any leagues as the starting SG as of now.

Cleveland @ Detroit: These teams played twice in the preseason, so naturally the NBA schedule makers said let’s make it three. Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson have met expectations so far, while Brandan Knight is still a bit buried for Detroit. Jonas Jerebko had a nice opening night, while Greg Monroe’s owners need a bounce back to make them feel better about his ADP. Anderson Varejao may not be the best guy to get it against it.

Oklahoma City @ Memphis: It’ll be the Scott Brooks show, as he attempts to make Kurt Rambis look like a pussycat in the egotistical coaching decisions department. Serge Ibaka has been muzzled thus far, and James Harden has been stashed on the second unit which would be fine if he were getting starter’s minutes. Sigh.

I expect both players to be fine in the long haul, but the gift-wrapped Coach of the Year award Brooks received three years back has served as a pass from the national media that voted for him. Don’t expect the same type of outcry that Rambis got when benching Kevin Love, as Brooks has worn Teflon this summer despite having the worst playoff coaching performance of the last decade.

Boston @ New Orleans: The Celtics could easily mail tonight’s game in after the showdown in Miami, while New Orleans will be up and ready to feed Eric Gordon the ball all night. Jarrett Jack will be back and we’ll be keeping a close eye on Carl Landry and Chris Kaman to see which one starts. Kaman’s value will likely be consistent from either vantage point, but Landry needs to start in order to hold value in most formats. He’s just not versatile enough to use with a smaller workload.

L.A. Clippers @ San Antonio: Lob City might have too much athleticism in the frontcourt for a Spurs squad that plays below the rim. This game could have a nice high score for fantasy owners as the Clippers want to try to run in theory (we’ll see if it works with grinders Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups), but the Spurs have moved to an up-tempo offense too. And if there’s anybody that likes to hack-a-big guy it’s Coach Pop, so DeAndre Jordan has been warned. I'm going to predict a 5-of-14 mark from the foul line for DeAndre, and also hope that one day EA Sports makes Jordan vs. Biedrins: The Free Throw Edition.

Philadelphia @ Phoenix: The Suns have a surprising amount of lineup mayhem after Marcin Gortat and Channing Frye were benched down the stretch of Monday’s game for Robin Lopez and Markieff Morris. I get the sense that Alvin Gentry is also using these first few games as an extended preseason, because Gortat had to have earned some goodwill after last season’s solid play. We’ll find out tonight if Gentry simply went with the hot hand, or if the incumbents are in danger.

Utah @ Denver: As mentioned, if Ty Corbin doesn’t get his team together I expect to hear some chirping from the players, though none of them are too demonstrative. I mentioned on Twitter that I could see Ty Lawson ending with first round value this season. His game is similar to Stephen Curry in that he doesn’t hurt you anywhere, and he had late second round value while playing 30 mpg as a starter down the stretch last year. Lawson will be playing 35-plus minutes by the end of the year, so you can do the math.

New York @ Golden State: If Mark Jackson can slow the Warriors’ pace in a game against the Knicks, fantasy owners will certainly take notice. They added Kyrylo Fesenko on Tuesday and with Kwame Brown and Andris Biedrins the Warriors are moving toward a more traditional lineup. Toney Douglas is the player of interest for me on New York’s side, as I’m not nearly as concerned about Baron Davis as everybody else, but Douglas will have to play well to keep Davis minimized when he returns. I think it can happen.
 

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Four's a crowd in Utah frontcourt

By Tom Carpenter, Special to ESPN.com


It's great when an NBA team can succeed while maxing out the stats of its players, but quite often what's best for an NBA squad is not ideal for fantasy production. Case in point: the Utah Jazz frontcourt, which is filled with talented big men like veterans Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap and youngsters Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter. On Tuesday, Jefferson (4 points, 10 boards) and Favors (8 points, 6 rebounds) started, while Millsap (18 points, 8 rebounds) and Kanter (5 points, 11 boards) came off the pine. Sure, it's great news for the Jazz that they have so many talented young bigs, but none can max out their stats if they all get a slice of the minutes. It's really hard to get a read on how things are going to flesh out with these four players, but if they settle into a situation where they all get a chunk of the action depending on game-to-game matchups, it will be tough for anyone beyond Jefferson to be a reliable fantasy stud this season.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->TUESDAY, DECEMBER 27

Highlights

Rajon Rondo, Celtics: 22 points (7-for-15 FG), 8 rebounds, 12 dimes and 7 turnovers against the Heat.
Kevin Love, Wolves: 31 points (6-for-18 FG, 19-for-24 FT, 0-4 3s) and 20 rebounds versus the Bucks.
Norris Cole, Heat: 20 points (8-16 FG), 4 assists, 4 rebounds, 3 turnovers against the Celtics.
Lowlights

Al Jefferson, Jazz: 4 points (2-for-16 FG) and 10 rebounds versus the Lakers.
Udonis Haslem, Heat: 4 points (1-for-9 FG), 12 rebounds and 4 fouls against the Celtics.
Tyreke Evans, Kings: 4 points (2-for-8 FG), 3 dimes, 5 turnovers versus the Blazers.



<!-- end inline 1 -->
Looking Back




• We know the Miami Heat have only two spots to fill in their starting roster: a center and a point guard. Rookie Norris Cole did his best to stake a claim to the starting point slot on Tuesday. Coming off the bench, he played 29 minutes (10 more than starter Mario Chalmers), scored 20 points (8-for-16 FG) and added four dimes and three steals, playing a critical role down the stretch as the Heat held off the Boston Celtics for their second straight win. With Dwyane Wade and LeBron James on board, it'll be tough for the Heat's point guard to pile up big numbers, but if the rookie Cole can secure the starting job with good play, he could easily ride their coattails to fantasy relevance.


• Rajon Rondo continued to score well in his second game this season, piling up 22 points after scoring 31 in the season opener. Someday in the not-so-distant future, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are going to be put out to stud and Rondo will have to score more, but right now he's just taking advantage of Pierce being out with a heel injury. Should one or more of them miss a chunk of the season, Rondo's scoring production should take a big jump. Unfortunately, we may see a big jump in his turnovers, too (he's turned the ball over 12 times in two games). Pierce could be back as soon as Friday, at which point Rondo likely will resume focusing on his diming over scoring.


• Rookie power forward Jon Leuer played for the University of Wisconsin and was drafted by the Milwaukee Bucks. In his first pro game in Wisconsin, he had 14 points, 8 boards, 2 steals, 2 blocks, was 5-of-7 from the field and hit all four of his free throws. He played just one minute in the road opener and had no stats, so his short-term upside should remain limited. However, if - or when -- center Andrew Bogut gets hurt, keep Leuer in mind.


It won't be easy to look past Kevin Love's 31 points, 20 rebounds and 19-of-24 free-throw shooting -- even if he failed to steal a ball or block a shot, as usual -- but let's check out the Minnesota Timberwolves' backcourt action on Tuesday. While Luke Ridnour manned the point for nearly 34 minutes as the starter, Ricky Rubio played 27 minutes, hit two of his three shots, dished out four dimes and swiped three balls, though he had three turnovers. Meanwhile, J.J. Barea was felled by a hamstring injury that may be serious enough to limit his play the rest of the week, according to the StarTribune. Whether Rubio will be able to shine as a rookie comes down to whether he can outplay Barea and Ridnour to earn enough minutes to pile up stats. It's a crowded backcourt in Minny, but if Barea is out for long, the door could be open for Rubio to make a move. Keep your expectations limited, but also keep an eye on Rubio.


• How ugly was the game between the Atlanta Hawks and the New Jersey Nets Tuesday evening? Ugly enough that the top scorers were reserves Vladimir Radmanovic and Marshon Brooks, each of whom had 17 points. Since many players are out of shape due to the lockout, and with fewer practices to get teams on the same page, you had to figure we would see a lot of bad hoops played early this season. That helps explain a poor outing from the young but veteran Hawks team. We should see much better nights ahead for their starters. However, with Brook Lopez out of the picture, things could get really ugly for the Nets on a regular basis. How many dimes can we expect from Deron Williams when the other four starters combine to score just 13 points? Tuesday night, he had a single dime and six turnovers.



Looking Ahead




The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Michigan to face the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday. Surprisingly, it will actually be the third time they've played this month, as the two teams squared off twice in the "preseason." These are two of the youngest teams in the NBA, so there are a lot of very talented and relatively (or completely) unproven players to keep an eye on. To begin with, you'll want to focus on rookie point guards Kyrie Irving of the Cavs and Brandon Knight of the Pistons. Both have tons of fantasy potential but will have to earn their keep. You'll also want to watch second-year Pistons big man Greg Monroe, who should be poised for a bust-out season, and Cavs rookie Tristan Thompson, who could be a double-double machine if he adjusts quickly to the pros.
 

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Enter the Panic Room

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THE LEAD

Mike Conley got injured on Wednesday and Jeremy Pargo filled in, finishing with 15 points on 6-of-13 shooting with seven assists and two steals. It sounds like Conley should miss a couple of practices and also a game or two, so Pargo is worth an add for owners needing help in the short-term.

Jrue Holiday left last night’s game late and it sounds like he banged his knee, but that it’s not serious. Lou Williams would be the add if he misses any time, but Doug Collins said he was okay so owners can breathe a sigh of relief.

Dwyane Wade left Wednesday’s game in the first half with a left foot injury and didn’t start the second half, but returned and hit the game-winning shot on a play in which he traveled. I don’t want to hate on Wade here, either, as that travel call doesn’t get made for at least 30 different players in the league. But it was a travel. Wade’s owners will deal with plenty of Ben Roethlisberger-like injury situations like this all year long.

Stephen Curry (ankle) is day-to-day and owners should be rooting for him to take as much time off as he needs to get healthy. Ishmael Smith started for Curry last night and scored 11 points with six boards, four assists, two steals, and a three, but we’re guessing Curry plays in the Warriors’ next game Saturday. Only add Smith if you hear about a ‘thumbs down’ for Curry. Monta Ellis stepped in and predictably scored 22 points with eight assists, and will carry the load anytime Curry is out.

Eric Gordon was a surprise scratch due to a swollen knee, begging the question of whether or not owners gave him enough credit for being injury prone.

Mario Chalmers had 15 points, four assists, and a three, and waiver wire darling Norris Cole had five points on 2-of-8 shooting with one assist in 16 minutes. Obviously folks wanted a repeat of his 20-4-4 line from Tuesday, but it was widely reported that he hadn’t earned the starting job yet so hopefully owners kept that in mind when adding him. He should be given at least a week to see if Chalmers can hold him off, and frankly I’m not surprised Erik Spoelstra went back to him last night. Had he not done that, he could have shattered Chalmers’ confidence one week into the season.

DON’T PANIC

I told you that Greg Monroe wasn’t a great bet to bounce back against Anderson Varejao in this space yesterday, and he didn’t let me down. If anything, Monroe’s 10 points and seven boards showed me that the ‘floor’ isn’t so bad. I’ll be floating buy low offers out to his owners as soon as I’m done writing this column, and after that I’ll be writing sternly worded letters to Golden State management for passing on the well-rounded big man for the likes of Ekpe Udoh.

WHAT’S EATING THE PHOENIX APE?

I only ask because I hear he can’t play offense anymore, either. While the offense has disappeared, so has any semblance of stability in Alvin Gentry's rotation. Unless you're in a really shallow league I’m advising folks to hold Channing Frye and Marcin Gortat until it’s clear that they’ve been shelved, particularly Gortat. It would still be quite an upset for both of them to lose their jobs. Nobody in Phoenix played particularly well last night, including Steve Nash, so it’s pretty obvious something is very wrong there. Hopefully it’s just conditioning, as the team is exactly the same as last year’s version.

PICKUP LINES

Brandon Knight scored 23 points with six assists and had three treys against the Cavs and he probably wasn’t available before this column was published, but if he is stop reading and pick him up. Knight could have gone as high as No. 3 in this year’s draft to Utah, and if he had we wouldn’t be having this conversation right now. He fell to No. 8 and lost some of his fantasy luster, but Knight probably guaranteed his late-round value with tonight’s performance. I doubt Detroit brings him along slowly knowing that he’s ready to play.

Gerald Henderson hit 10-of-19 shots and a three for 21 points, four rebounds, four assists, two steals, and two blocks and as I alluded to in yesterday’s Dose, he and Corey Maggette matched up with Dwyane Wade and LeBron James about as well as anybody. Hopefully you took Charlotte and the points.

Marvin Williams scored 17 points on 4-of-8 shooting with eight rebounds, two steals, a block, and two threes on Wednesday, and posted a nearly identical line on Tuesday. I had mentioned in this space that if he did it again that he would deserve a long look, and I’ll stop short of calling him a must add player but I have to say I’m pretty impressed. If not for Williams’ inconsistent history I’d be more bullish.

Ben Gordon hit 9-of-19 shots with four treys for 25 points and four assists, and we’re about to find out if the coaching change will bring Gordon back to the land of the relevant. We’re not asking for every-night production, but if he’s going to be an impact player this season he needs to disappear no more than once per week and not every other game. He’s worth an add for sure, but I’m going to stop short of calling him a must-add because we simply don’t know if he can get his confidence back.

Spencer Hawes showed Wednesday that his big night Monday would have some carryover, scoring nine points with 11 rebounds, two steals, and two blocks in 26 minutes. He should certainly be added not necessarily because it’s a lock he will keep it up, because it’s not, but because these big lines will make him a marketable player for your squad. My guess is that part of his success is due to Elton Brand’s struggles. Brand had four points, nine boards, and lasted just 21 minutes amidst rumors that he’s not in basketball shape. Brand comes with no guarantees this year, either, but it’s almost certain that he picks up his current pace at the expense of Hawes. There’s also promising rookie Nikola Vucevic ready to threaten Hawes’ minutes, too.

Brandon Rush scored 19 points on 7-of-13 shooting with six rebounds, two assists, two steals, two blocks, and two 3-pointers last night, and his presence is one of the reasons that Dorell Wright’s minutes are down. Steph Curry’s absence should be noted here, but Rush has played a solid 27 minutes per game. While he averaged just 8.5 points and 3.0 boards in his first two games, he averaged a solid 1.5 threes, 1.0 steals, and 2.0 blocks. If your format doesn’t reward such things you can disregard this, but adding Rush in advance of his next big game isn’t the worst idea. It’s a bit early to call him a must-add player by any means, though.

James Johnson has long been a favorite of mine due to his versatility and defensive ability (I’m a snooty basket-nerd I guess), and he continued to impress in a bench role with six points, eight rebounds, two assists, six steals, yes six steals, and two blocks. Unless you’re in a points format that doesn’t reward versatility, Johnson is a must-grab for the chance you’re getting a ‘special’ fantasy player.

POSITION BATTLES

D.J. Augustin hit 7-of-11 shots and three treys for 20 points, five boards, and six assists while playing through his sprained ankle. Kemba Walker had 14 points on 6-of-9 shooting with three assists and a steal in 20 minutes, and I tend to think he should still be owned at least until we hear that Augustin is fully healthy. If you want to ditch him after that, be my guest. Augustin, like Nick Young, is going to be very motivated to play through ailments so he doesn’t get ‘Pipped,’ which is a great way to get hurt.

Jordan Crawford looked like a breakout candidate by mid-day Wednesday after Flip Saunders said he was being given the starting SG job for the “next 10 days or so.” Fast forward to after Crawford’s one-point, 0-for-6 outing and that’s the only saving grace owners have. Backup Nick Young added to the frustration by hitting 6-of-12 shots for 21 points and four assists. The position battle is on. We don’t expect Saunders to go back on his word, though it’s possible, and at this rate they’ll trade big lines indefinitely. That means they’ll both have low-end value, but owners are banking on an injury, trade, or face-plant by the ‘other guy’ for anything more.

Derrick Favors dealt with foul trouble yet again, and finished with just two points though he did have 10 boards in 17 minutes. Paul Millsap proved his ability to produce off the bench once again, scoring 13 points with eight boards in 22 minutes before things got silly.

This should, in theory, cause Ty Corbin to consider swapping things around, and as I wrote yesterday it’s time for Corbin and Jazz management to either defecate or get off the chamber pot. Go with the old guys or go with the new guys, but make a move and follow through. Raja Bell, Millsap, Devin Harris, and C.J. Miles are not thrilled to be taking a back seat to guys that are going to struggle, but once they can plan on what their identity is I expect a more cohesive and successful unit.

Favors should be owned in all formats as long as he is holding that starting job. The kid needs experience, and if anything reserve him while he figures out how to stay on the court, but drop him at your own risk. Owners may want to float out a buy low offer on Millsap, too. The Jazz may come to the conclusion that they have to feature Millsap for the sake of having any growth on the court. After all, losing begets losing.

Al Jefferson hit 8-of-14 shots last night after a 2-for-16 mark on Tuesday, and his knee did not appear to be a problem at all. He finished with 19 points, five boards, a steal, and a block in 30 minutes. The boards speak to the presence of Millsap and Favors, perhaps, but Jefferson’s owners can exhale.

Jose Calderon came back to Earth after a 15-point, 11-assist game on Monday, scoring seven points with six assists and two steals. I made Jerryd Bayless a late-round target because I liked his chances to have low-end value regardless, and take the starting role at some point during the year. Bayless scored 13 points in 18 minutes, and owners have to treat him like a roster stash and be patient.
 

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The Rise of James Johnson

Welcome to the first Waiver Wired of the year. It feels a little redundant since we are all over any possible waiver activity in blurbs and the Daily Dose, but this should be a nice way to tie the week together. As for the upcoming week, keep in mind that the Hawks, Bucks, Thunder and Spurs all play five times in Week 2, while the Clippers play just twice. I’m benching Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in most leagues this week, and possibly Chris Paul, depending on options. Toronto's James Johnson, the cover boy for this column, has been a beast early, and I highlight him to kick off page 2 with Small Forwards.

Shallow League: 10 teams or less
Standard League: 12 teams
Deep League: More than 12 teams

The NBA Season Pass and Draft Guide are available, so check them out. We had a fun Season Pass Live Chat on Thursday and will do so again every week.

Point Guards

Jarrett Jack Hornets – Jack served a one-game suspension and doesn’t have a huge name, but should be owned in all leagues as the only true PG option in New Orleans. He’s only played in one game thus far, but had 21 points and nine dimes in his season debut.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Ramon Sessions Cavaliers – Sessions got lost in the shuffle with all the Kyrie Irving hype on draft night, but has been stellar off the bench for his two games, averaging 17 points, six assists and a couple threes. I’m slightly concerned about him tailing off once Irving gets cooking, but for now, Sessions is nearly a must-own player across the board.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Andre Miller Nuggets – I have no idea how he’s doing it, but in three games off the bench Miller is averaging a ridiculous 13 points, eight assists, two steals and a 3-pointer per game. Ty Lawson finally broke out on Thursday night, but Miller still managed a decent line. I have no idea how long it will last, but for now Miller should be on a roster in all leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Kyrie Irving Cavaliers – Irving was a popular pick on draft night and has one good and one weak performance in his two games. He did have seven dimes in both of them though, and is starting for Cleveland. Once he gets this NBA thing figured out he should explode, and even if you’re not going to start him right now, he should be owned in all leagues as long as he’s starting.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Brandon Knight Pistons – He’s only played two games in the NBA and one was fantastic (23 points, 6 assists, three 3-pointers) and the other wasn’t (9 points, 0 assists, three 3-pointers). The common theme is the threes and he is only going to get better from here. Knight could end up starting at PG at any time now, but I’m guessing he’s inconsistent until it happens.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most leagues

Lou Williams Sixers – Jrue Holiday is dinged up and Lou is averaging 19 points and 2.5 threes after two games. Those numbers will come down, but he’s a nice instant-offense option off the Sixers bench, and should offer immediate help to owners in need of threes.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues

Kemba Walker Bobcats – Walker has been fairly consistent in two games and seems to be fitting in well with D.J. Augustin and Gerald Henderson in Charlotte’s backcourt. It could start to feel more crowded there soon, but right now it looks like there is nice balance between the three players. I think DJA’s job is safe for this season, while Walker will continue to see plenty of minutes off the bench.
Recommendation: Worth a look in all leagues

The Rest

Ricky Rubio Timberwolves – Not going to score much, but worth holding if you are thin at PG.
Norris Cole Heat – Cooled down after a hot start, but would become must-own if he takes starting job.
Jimmer Fredette Kings – Playing well and getting run, but I still think he’ll be too inconsistent this year.
Jeremy Pargo Grizzlies – If Mike Conley’s ankle keeps him out for more than two games, this is your guy.

Shooting Guards

Paul George Pacers – George is paying off for those of you who took a flier on him, or reached for him in the eighth round of your draft. He’s at 15 points, three 3-pointers and 5.5 rebounds per game, and is also notching some steals and blocks. The threes have to slow down and It’s very possible now is a great time to sell high on George. I own him in several leagues and am planning on holding him, but that doesn’t mean you have to.
Recommendation: Should be owned (and starting) in all leagues

Gerald Henderson Bobcats – Henderson is off to a quick start for Charlotte and is playing with a lot of confidence. He’s averaging 19.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and a 3-pointer per game. Yes, we’re only two games into this thing, but it looks like Henderson’s preseason sleeper tag was accurate. The Bobcats have four games this week and five games in Week 3.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most leagues

Brandon Rush Warriors – Rush was thrown out of Indy like yesterday’s trash after several years of failing to take control of the shooting guard job, but looks like he has new life in Golden State. I think Mark Jackson really likes Rush and am thinking he could be a legit sixth-man candidate this season. His shot comes and goes, but he’s averaging 12 points, four rebounds, 1.3 steals, two blocks, 1.7 threes and 27 minutes in three games thus far.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most leagues

Arron Afflalo Nuggets – Afflalo missed training camp and the preseason while working out his free agent deal and finally got it going on Thursday when he scored 19 points. He’s quietly hit double digits in all three games and while he’s only hit one 3-pointer this season, they should start falling in bunches soon.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most leagues

Nick Young & Jordan Crawford Wizards – Young has been coming off the bench behind Crawford, but that could change after Crawford posted an 0-for-6 disaster against the Hawks in his last game. Crawford’s probably got another week or so to control the job, but Young appears to be the guy with more confidence right now. I still like Crawford quite a bit, but it’s going to be a real roller coaster ride with him at times. Young is coming on, scoring 21 in his last game after going for 16 in the opener, and he looks like the better option of the two for right now.
Recommendation: Both players should be owned in deep leagues, with edge going to Young.

Richard Hamilton Bulls – Hamilton looked very good in the preseason, got off to a slow start and then bounced back Thursday with 16 points, a three and two steals on Thursday. He’s gotten better in each of his three games and I still think he’s going to have a nice year in Chicago. Hamilton goes four times this week and five times in Week 3.
Recommendation: Not a must-own at this point, but should be owned in deep leagues

Delonte West Mavericks – West replaced Vince Carter in the starting lineup after Game 1 and played very well on Thursday night with 15 points, four boards, six assists, two steals and a 3-pointer. The Mavs are 0-3 and I have no idea how long West can hold onto the starting job, but for now, it’s his.
Recommendation: Should be considered in most leagues

Marco Belinelli Hornets – Eric Gordon will miss his second straight game with a knee injury, but shouldn’t be out too long, at least for now. With Gordon, the next injury always feels like it’s around the corner. And with that being the case, Belinelli is a guy you’ll want to keep an eye on all year. He had 13 points, six boards, a steal and three 3-pointers in Gordon’s absence on Wednesday and will start again on Friday.
Recommendation: Monitor the status of Gordon before moving on Belinelli.

Have a great weekend and I hope your teams rally for a Week 1 win. Follow me on Twitter by clicking here. <!--RW-->

Small Forwards

James Johnson Raptors – I don’t recall getting as many questions about one player as I have this week with Johnson. The numbers after just two games are sick: 5.5 points, 7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 4 steals, 2.5 blocks and 0.5 3-pointers. I don’t know if he can keep this pace up, but I do know he could easily replace Rasual Butler in the starting five at any time, and is already leading the Raps in minutes played despite not even starting. We had him tagged as a sleeper in the preseason and he’s clearly lived up to the hype. Scoring will always be an issue, but his ability to rack up steals, blocks and the occasional three make him valuable even without the offense. Now let’s just hope he can keep it up. The Raps play four times this week and five games in Week 3.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Marvin Williams Hawks – The Hawks play five games next week, giving Marvin a boost. He’s averaging 15.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2 steals, 0.5 blocks and two 3-pointers per game thus far, and he looks like a different player this year. I have no problem picking him up and using him for the upcoming week, and also feel like he might be worth keeping all season.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Richard Jefferson Spurs – Jefferson got off to a hot start and then cooled off on Thursday. But the Spurs play five times next week and RJ is going to hit threes, if nothing else. He’s averaging nearly 13 points, four boards and two 3-pointers per game, and looks like a nice add for the upcoming scoring period.
Recommendation: Should be owned in standard and deep leagues

Carlos Delfino Bucks – Delfino’s been sidelined with a wrist injury but is set to make his debut on Friday. The Bucks are deep and Delfino could be in a dog fight for minutes, but could also hit 2.5 threes per game, or more. Health is a bit of a concern with him, but I think he’s worth a flier with five games this week. See how he looks on Friday and then make a decision on whether you want to roll the dice on him in Week 2.
Recommendation: Should be monitored in all leagues

John Salmons Kings – The Kings are a deep and confusing team, but Salmons is off to a good start, averaging nine points and 1.7 threes in three games. If you toss out his two-point effort in a blowout loss to the Blazers, the numbers look much better.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues

Nicolas Batum Blazers – Batum is struggling with his confidence after not getting a starting gig but is still a highly talented and underrated player. He’s only shooting 32%, but is averaging 10 points, 5 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 1.3 3-pointers per game. He’s currently not stealing the ball, but they should be coming. He’s got the potential to do what James Johnson has done early and I still think he is worth owning in most leagues.
Recommendation: Should be held in standard and deep leagues

Marshon Brooks Nets – Brooks has scored 17 points in two of the three Nets games this season and looks like he can score at will. Damion James was benched on Thursday, while Anthony Morrow was demoted to a reserve role behind Sundiata Gaines. Brooks could and should be the big winner here, making him worth a look in all leagues. We’ll need to see what he does in the next couple before declaring him a must-own player, but he should be near the top of your ‘watch list’ right now.
Recommendation: Should be monitored closely in all leagues, and picked up in deep ones

The Rest

C.J. Miles Jazz – Could retake starting job from Raja Bell at any time. Keep an eye on him.
Metta World Peace Lakers – Lakers need a SF and Metta can play there. Should be on rise.
Terrence Williams Rockets – Budinger’s been terrible and T-Will is getting run. Watch closely.

Power Forwards

Ryan Anderson Magic – Anderson was nice again on Thursday and is averaging 18 points, six boards and nearly four 3-pointers per game. As long as he’s starting over Glen Davis, he looks like a must-own player.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Andray Blatche Wizards – Blatche shouldn’t be on waiver wires just yet, but desperate owners could be ready to cut bait. He’s shooting just 27 percent and has looked bad in two straight, but is still averaging 7.5 points and 7 rebounds. The steals and blocks aren’t there yet, but if this dude is dropped in your league, pick him up.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Tim Duncan Spurs – Duncan was benched on Thursday after shooting 1-of-6 in a blowout and owners could grow impatient with him quickly. He’s got bust written all over him by those owners who drafted Duncan, but getting him for free off waivers could pay dividends.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Carl Landry Hornets – Landry would be a lot more lovable if he blocked shots, but he’s starting at PF for the Hornets and averaging 17 points, nine rebounds and a steal after two games. Chris Kaman is going to eat into some of his potential, but so far, Landry looks like a nice add in any league.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most leagues

Tyler Hansbrough Pacers – Hansbrough is coming off the bench and dealing with the arrival of David West, but still playing well enough to be owned in most leagues. He’s averaging 11.5 points and 10.5 rebounds, and while he won’t block many shots, not many guys average a double-double in the NBA. I’m not saying he’ll keep this up all year, but he’s worth a look in any league.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues, and considered in all.

Al Harrington Nuggets – Harrington cooled off on Thursday but is still averaging 15 points, six boards, two steals and a 3-pointer per game off the Nuggets bench. He’ll be streaky, but has big-game potential and should be able to help owners in most leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues

The Rest

Paul Millsap Jazz – Shouldn’t be available, but if he was dropped, pick him up. He's starting Friday.
Derrick Williams Timberwolves – Averaging 8 points, 5.5 boards and should only get better.
Derrick Favors Jazz – Lost job to Millsap already and struggling, but might be better off bench.
Ed Davis Raptors – Amir Johnson is playing well, limiting Davis’ minutes. Monitor closely.
Jonas Jerebko Pistons – Return of Villanueva hurts, but could hold starting job anyway.

Centers

Samuel Dalembert Rockets – Dalembert has been coming off the bench behind Jordan Hill, but that should change quickly. He’s averaging seven points, six rebounds, 1.5 steals and 3.5 blocks off the bench and those numbers are going to rise once he takes over the starting center job.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Spencer Hawes Sixers – Hawes is off to a ridiculous start and Doug Collins says he’s in fantastic shape. He’s averaging 9.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, six assists, two steals and 1.5 blocks, and while I doubt he keeps up that pace, he’s going to be a serviceable center all year. Hawes and the Sixers only have three games this week, but play five times in Week 3.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues for now

DeJuan Blair Spurs – Blair is likely to be up and down all year, depending on Gregg Popovich’s mood swings and playing time allocations, but is averaging 21 points and nine boards in his last two after an opening-night dud. He’s yet to block a shot, but they should be coming. His playing time will always likely be a mystery, but he’s young and should be able to handle all the minutes he can get. I dropped him after Game 1, which was probably a mistake. Maybe someone in your league made the same error.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most leagues.

Anderson Varejao Cavaliers – Varejao is going to get plenty of minutes and opportunity for a bad Cleveland team and is averaging 12 points, 8.5 rebounds and a steal, but has yet to block a shot. That should change soon and he is a guy I’d like to have in almost any league.
Recommendation: Should be owned in standard and deep leagues.

Marcin Gortat Suns – Shouldn’t be available in your league, but could be after a slow start. Everyone on the Suns looks sluggish, and Gortat will be pushed by Robin Lopez. Gortat is the better player and I expect him to get it figured out and improve on his current averages of 8.5 points, 6.5 boards and 0.5 blocks.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues

Chris Kaman Hornets – Kaman is coming off the bench behind Emeka Okafor and Carl Landry, but still averaging 11 points, seven boards, 1.5 steals and a block per game. He’s an injury risk, but a guy worth owning if you’re hurting in boards and blocks.
Recommendation: Should be owned in most leagues.

Amir Johnson Raptors – Amir is off to a nice start, averaging 7.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. The emergence of James Johnson could slow him down, while he’ll also have Ed Davis nipping at his heels going forward. But for now, he’s worth consideration in all leagues. Keep in mind that the Raps also play five times in Week 3, and four times in the upcoming week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues, considered in all

Chuck Hayes Kings – Hayes is starting and averaging six points, 10 rebounds and a block, but I’d like him more if he didn’t have to contend with DeMarcus Cousins, J.J. Hickson and Jason Thompson for playing time. I doubt he matches last season’s stellar production, but he looks like a serviceable center as long as he’s starting for the Kings.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues, considered in all

The Rest

Robin Lopez Suns – Pushing Marcin Gortat in PHO, but not a must-own player by any stretch.
Mehmet Okur Nets – Off to a slow start, but started on Thursday. Watch him closely.
Marcus Camby Blazers – Rebounding and blocking shots, but very risky injury history.
Tiago Splitter Spurs – Has potential to do well in San Antonio, but minutes sporadic.
Andris Biedrins Warriors – Cooled off after a hot start, you can probably do better.
 

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Amare Tweaks An Ankle
We’re going to try to start getting the Dose up earlier so you can check it out first thing in the morning instead of first thing after lunch. Yes, it means we have to stay up all night to get it done, but it should have more value being posted early and help you make add/drop decisions before the rest of your league catches up with you.

The NBA Season Pass and Draft Guide are available, so check them out.

The Rotoworld NBA Injury Page should have you covered, so I didn't dive into them too much here today. Here are the highlights of what you’ll find there.

Injury Report

Paul Pierce – Hoping to play through heel injury on Friday and I bet he plays.
D.J. Augustin – Nursing a bad ankle, but it sounds like he’s likely to play Friday.
Corey Maggette – Missed practice, but planning to give it a go on Friday.
Charlie Villanueva – Four-game suspension ends soon, should play Monday vs. Magic.
Stephen Curry – Iffy for Saturday with an ankle sprain, game-time decision.
Andrew Bynum – Suspension is over, should be back on Saturday.
Mike Conley – Sounds like he’ll miss at least a couple games with an ankle sprain.
Jose Juan Barea – Sounds doubtful for Friday with a hammy, could play Sunday.
Carlos Delfino – Ready to make debut Friday after wrist injury kept him out early.
Eric Gordon – Doubtful for Friday with knee bruise, hopefully last one he’ll miss.
Amare Stoudemire – Sprained an ankle Thursday night, iffy for Saturday vs. Kings.
Jameer Nelson – Neck stinger on Thursday, iffy for Friday vs. Bobcats.
Jrue Holiday – Hoping to play Friday with knee contusion, check for updates.

Jonas Jerebko could take a hit with the return of Villanueva, and keep an eye on Delfino. If he gets run, he should hit a ton of threes. Jeremy Pargo is filling in for Conley, making him an interesting short-term add. Owners of Eric Gordon are panicking, and while I don’t trust him, you might be able snag him for a song right now.

As for what went down on the court Thursday night, 12 teams were in action and there were plenty of twists and turns. The Thunder beat the Mavericks after Kevin Durant answered a Vince Carter 3-pointer with one of his own at the buzzer in the game of the night. The Thunder are 4-0, while the Mavs are winless at 0-3.

Let’s take a fantasy oriented look at this team-by-team.

NETS

Sundiata Gaines surprisingly started at shooting guard in place of Anthony Morrow. Gaines had eight points on 3-of-9 shooting, while Morrow hit just 2-of-10 shots for four points in 21 minutes. The big winner here could be Marshon Brooks, who scored 17 with two 3-pointers in 21 minutes. Damion James lasted just 13 minutes for four points, and Brooks is the guy to keep a close eye on here. I’m not sure he’s worth picking up at this point, but he should definitely be near the top of your ‘watch list,’ as he appears to have the ability to score at will.

Mehmet Okur started at center but struggled against Dwight Howard, finishing with nine points, six boards and a 3-pointer on 4-of-9 shooting. Let’s see what he does against a mortal center before declaring him a bust. Deron Williams hit just 2-of-12 shots for 10 points, seven assists and six turnovers, and he’s in a tough spot, basically playing with a D-League unit. Expect some low-ball offers if you own him, and while it will be tempting to cut your losses, he should get better very soon. Kris Humphries had nine points, 10 boards and a block, and continues to be a must-own player now that Brook Lopez is in street clothes for a couple months.

MAGIC

Jameer Nelson left with a neck stinger and Chris Duhon stepped up with nine points, four assists and three 3-pointers. Duhon will only be worth grabbing if Nelson is going to miss multiple games, but I don’t think he’ll be out for long, if at all. Jason Richardson finally showed signs of life, scoring 16 and grabbing five boards on 6-of-14 shooting, but still hasn’t hit a three this season (thanks, Bo Koster). Weird, but I think you have to stick with him. Dwight Howard was a beast with 16 points, 24 boards, three steals and three blocks, but hit just 2-of-9 free throws. With all the poor performances from studs this week it’s tough to be mad at Dwight for the FTs – especially since you knew it was coming. Ryan Anderson had 22 points and three more 3-pointers, and remains a solid fantasy option, while J.J. Redick added 15 points and two 3-pointers off the bench. If you’re desperate for threes in a deep league, give JJR a look.

SPURS

Gregg Popovich is up to his old tricks early, as Tim Duncan was benched after 16 minutes and 1-of-6 shooting, allowing DeJuan Blair (22 & 12) and Tiago Splitter (10 & 11) to play well in extended run. My guess is these three will trade nice lines all season long, making all three of them frustrating to own, especially since it will be impossible to guess how many minutes Pop will give each them night to night. Richard Jefferson hit just 2-of-10 shots for five points, but played 28 minutes in a blowout loss to the Rockets. The Spurs have five games next week and I bet RJ bounces back to help fantasy owners win in that one. He came in hot and you should hang onto him if you picked him up.

ROCKETS

The Rockets finally woke up as Kevin Martin had 25 points and four 3-pointers, Luis Scola added 18 points, five boards, a steal and a block, and Kyle Lowry just missed a triple-double with 16 points, nine boards, eight assists, three steals and three 3-pointers. All three guys would have done more had this game not been over at halftime, and I’m guessing Martin owners are breathing a sigh of relief this morning. Jordan Hill started again and had six points and seven boards, while Samuel Dalembert came off the bench for four points, seven boards, a steal and four blocks. Don’t be surprised if Sammy starts against the Grizzlies on Friday, so hang onto him if you own him, or pick him up if you don’t.

Chase Budinger was awful again and I’m starting to get the feeling Terrence Williams might be on the verge of replacing him in the starting five. It’s just a hunch, but T-Will played 22 minutes to Budinger’s 18, and had six points and two 3-pointers in the loss. Don’t pick up T-Will just yet, but be ready to pounce if Kevin McHale makes the move. As for Budinger, he should improve after a terrible start, but I’m ready to move on and drop him for a producer in my league.<!--RW-->

MAVERICKS

Jason Kidd was terrible again, finishing with three points, four boards and three dimes in 35 minutes. He’ll have some monster games this season, but no one can predict when they’re coming, and he just doesn’t look ready to contribute much on offense for the Mavs. Delonte West is the new starting shooting guard and had 15 points, four rebounds, six assists, two steals and a three on 5-of-10 shooting. I’m not racing to pick him up just yet, but that could change if he does this in another game or two soon.

Brendan Haywood showed signs of life with eight points, five boards, a steal and a block, but that’s still not enough to suggest he’s ready to produce on a nightly basis. Just keep an eye on him. Vince Carter played just 16 minutes, while Lamar Odom logged 17 minutes in the loss. Odom was 2-of-11 and is now 4-of-27 shooting in three games. Carter hit a huge shot, but unless he returns to the starting lineup, or starts getting 30 mpg, ignore him.

THUNDER

Russell Westbrook took the game over late and Kevin Durant finished off the winless Mavs with a dagger three for the Thunder, who are 4-0. Westbrook didn’t play well again though, hitting just 6-of-15 shots for 16 points, four boards, four assists, two steals and seven more turnovers. And had his late-game heroics not have happened, his line would have looked much worse. I think he’s a great buy-low candidate and I’m just going to keep rolling him out there until he gets straightened out. It’s going to happen.

Serge Ibaka got a season-high 37 minutes and went 6-of-9 for 16 points, eight rebounds, a steal and three blocks in his best game of the season. He’s been highly frustrating because Scott Brooks was only giving him 22 mpg, so it was nice to see him get the minutes he deserves and produce. If you don’t want to deal with the minutes headache all year, look into trading him after this effort. Kendrick Perkins had seven points, four boards, a steal and a block in 27 minutes, and remains a very low-end center option in fantasy. He’ll have better nights, and worse ones.

NUGGETS

Ty Lawson blew up for 25 points, four rebounds, three dimes, eight steals and two 3-pointers on 10-of-16 shooting in a loss to the Blazers. That’s more like it, as owners can rest easy knowing he’s going to be a stud this season. Andre Miller cooled off with 13 points and eight assists, but it still looks like he’ll be worth owning despite playing off the bench and behind Lawson. Arron Afflalo woke up with 19 points on 6-of-12 shooting and should be ready to start producing on a regular basis, although he didn’t hit a three last night. Al Harrington cooled off with eight points, five boards, two steals and zero threes on 3-of-9 shooting, but should bounce back in the next one. He’s worth holding for now in some leagues, unless this becomes a trend instead of a fluke.

BLAZERS

Wesley Matthews went off for 25 points, five rebounds and five 3-pointers on 9-of-15 shooting, and should be held in all leagues. Raymond Felton was also nice with 23 points, five rebounds, six assists and a 3-pointer on 10-of-16 shooting, and looks like a nice target in trade if you need a starting PG. His asking price shouldn’t be through the roof. Marcus Camby remains a serviceable center as long as he’s walking and had two points, 12 rebounds and three blocks. Just know he can go down in a moment’s notice. Jamal Crawford had 22 points, five boards, a three and hit all nine of his free throws. He’s not a must-start in fantasy, but is worth owning. Nicolas Batum had six boards, a steal, four blocks and a three, but hit just 1-of-6 shots for six points in 21 minutes. He’s a good player and I don’t expect him to struggle like this much longer. And once he gets it going, the boards, blocks, steals and threes should follow.

BULLS

Richard Hamilton had 16 points, four boards and a 3-pointer on 7-of-15 shooting for the Bulls and could be ready to start producing on a regular basis. I recommend holding him if you can. Carlos Boozer, who was horrible in his last game, had 16 points, 15 rebounds, a steal and a block, and I hope the folks who asked me if they should drop him held on. Of course, it will be tough for Boozer and Joakim Noah to play well on the same night, and Noah had just nine points and four boards in the win over the Kings. Taj Gibson played 10 minutes and can be dropped until Boozer or Noah suffers an injury.

KINGS

Marcus Thornton had 20 points, five boards, two steals and four 3-pointers, and looks more stud than dud this year. DeMarcus Cousins had 15 points, 12 rebounds, a steal and two blocks, which is great, right? Well, not when you consider he’s a big man and hit just 4-of-16 shots in the loss. Don’t do anything drastic with him, but if his field goal percentage is too much of an annoyance for you, offer him in trade. Chuck Hayes had seven points, 10 rebounds and zero blocks, and remains a low-end center option, while SF John Salmons had 12 points and two 3-pointers on 4-of-10 shooting. He’s worth owning, but is going to be inconsistent in a crowded Kings rotation. Jimmer Fredette had 14 points, three assists and two threes in 24 minutes, but like Salmons (and most of his teammates), will be too inconsistent to start in most leagues. J.J. Hickson had seven points and eight rebounds in just 18 minutes, but can be put on waivers for now. Lastly, Tyreke Evans scored 19, but only had two assists and hit just 5-of-12 free throws. He’s clearly struggling, but owners should hang in there with him for now.

KNICKS

Toney Douglas hit 2-of-8 shots for five points and five assists in 33 minutes, and I get the sense that Mike D’Antoni can’t wait for Baron Davis’ debut after a back injury. If you have room, stashing Baron makes sense, although he could be in and out of the lineup all season with injuries. Landry Fields had just five points and a 3-pointer on 2-of-7 shooting, and he hasn’t lived up to last year’s hype thus far. I expect him to be inconsistent all year. Tyson Chandler finally showed up with 13 points, 11 boards, three steals and two blocks after struggling early. If Amare Stoudemire is out on Saturday with a sprained ankle, Chandler becomes a must-start. If Amare is out, my guess is Bill Walker would start in that one. Stoudemire hit just 4-of-17 shots and hauled in two rebounds, and while it’s frustrating, just remain patient with him. And if you want to trade him, wait until he gets hot again before doing so.

LAKERS

Kobe Bryant abused Renaldo Balkman last night, hitting 10-of-17 shots for 28 points, four boards, six dimes, a steal, a block and an assist. Yes, his wrist is a concern, but I can’t see how he doesn’t play through it as long as the Lakers are in the playoff hunt. Josh McRoberts had 10 points, six boards, three steals and two blocks, while Troy Murphy had four points and seven boards off the bench. With Andrew Bynum due back on Saturday, McRoberts is going to the bench, and, along with Murphy, can probably be dropped. Devin Ebanks started at small forward again, but that experiment is likely coming to an end after he failed to score in 14 minutes. Metta World Peace didn’t play well last night (9 points, 25 minutes) and I get the sense he’s going to start scoring more in the near future. Keep an eye on him. Steve Blake had 11 points, three dimes and three 3-pointers in 25 minutes off the bench, and is worth a look in deep leagues (more than 12 teams) if you need threes and dimes.
 

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Keep eye on Hawes, Harrington

Some high upside plays and safe but productive bets emerging on waiver wire


By Josh Whitling
Special to ESPN.com


Perhaps the most intense and influential time for working the waiver wire is at the beginning of the season. Oftentimes, players who end up as top-50 contributors (such as Dorell Wright and Serge Ibaka last season) go undrafted. These players, with such a high return-on-investment value, win fantasy championships when snatched up by shrewd and opportunistic owners early. In order to capitalize on early- season opportunity, however, owners must make a decision to drop a player they deemed draft-worthy, and it is difficult to cut bait after just a few games. The key is identifying which players have high upside and could break out for the entire season, as opposed to those who are simply performing well due to circumstances such as increased playing time or better fit with the team.
Both types can be worth adding, but it's those high-upside guys who are worth the risk of dropping a valuable bench player. Those playing well due to circumstance, who might be worth a spot start or as an injury fill-in, are also worth adding, but only if they will clearly outperform the player you'll drop for them.
A method of measuring this has to do with a player's past production. Has he gotten significant minutes in the past, and if so, what has he done with them? For example, both Wright and Ibaka had excellent per-minute stats leading into the season but had never played big minutes. When given the opportunity, those per-minute stats stretched out into fantastic aggregate production. On the other hand, some players have produced steadily in the past when given opportunities do so, and we have an adequate sample size to base their projections, but a change in situation is giving them an opportunity to produce once again.
So far this year, most of the waiver wire standouts are the latter type of player, as there are few players who have come out of nowhere and look positioned to dominate. Let's take a look at some players who are available in most formats, separating them into potential breakouts and safe bets:

Potential Breakouts

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fantasy_g_hawes_mb_300.jpg
<CITE>Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images</CITE>Spencer Hawes could produce solid stats if he can maintain his playing time.


Spencer Hawes, C, Philadelphia 76ers (23.8 percent owned): He's never averaged 30 minutes per game and has seen his opportunities dwindle in the past two seasons: His 21.2 minutes per game was his lowest average since his rookie campaign. He's just 23 years old, having played one year of college ball, and is just beginning to enter his prime as a legit 7-footer. His career per-minute stats average out to around 13.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 0.7 steals if given the 32 minutes per game he's averaging now, and he has the tools to surpass that. He can even knock down half a 3-pointer per game and is an adept passer for his size, as shown by his six assists per contest so far this season. Hawes is worth adding in all formats and has the size, tools and potential to finish the season as a fantasy starter.
Al Harrington, PF, Denver Nuggets (12.4 percent owned): We've been down this road with Harrington before. When he's getting minutes in the right offense, he can put up some pretty nasty offensive numbers. Just look at 2008-09, when he put up 20.7 points, 2.4 3s and 1.2 steals per game for the New York Knicks. The fact that half of the Nuggets are in China, including Wilson Chandler (his biggest competition for minutes), bodes well for Harrington, as he'll provide scoring punch off the bench. His field goal percentage is painful for a power forward, but if your team needs 3s, Harrington could average two per game with a steal and points in the upper teens.
Robin Lopez, C, Phoenix Suns (7.4 percent owned): Like Hawes, he regressed last season but has legitimate size and promising per-minute stats for his career. He's had stints of productivity, like in February 2010, when he averaged 12.9 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks with 59.3 percent from the floor in 25.8 minutes per game. If he can average minutes in the mid-20s, he could easily put up eight boards with a block and a half while making over half of his shots from the floor. And if somehow he earns starter's minutes, the returns would be better.
Terrence Williams, SG/SF, Houston Rockets (1.4 percent owned): Williams is brimming with talent but has been unable to put it together to earn consistent minutes. His per-minute stats indicate the ability to average over a 3 and a steal per game, with good rebounds and assists for a wing player. It appears as if he'll be a more significant part of the Rockets rotation than he was after last season's trade from the New Jersey Nets. He's got a skill set that translates to 13-15 points with over one three and steal with five rebounds and four assists if he can put it together, making him a nice glue-type player from the shooting guard or small forward position. He'll have to keep his head on straight and fend off Courtney Lee for minutes, but his potential is intriguing. He's not worth adding in most formats yet but is definitely worth monitoring as he etches out his role with the Rockets.
Safe Bets

Marcus Camby, PF/C, Portland Trail Blazers (23.1 percent owned): Sure, he's injury-prone and ancient. But he's also a terrific rebounder and shot-blocker, and his veteran presence is critical for the Blazers. The key to his success is the ability to stay healthy, which is always in question, but he's good to go right now and puts up start-worthy numbers in most formats. If you need center help, ride him till the wheels fall off, as you're guaranteed double-digit boards with about two blocks and a steal per game.
Chuck Hayes, PF/C, Sacramento Kings (22.1 percent owned): Hayes was fantastic for the Rockets last year, especially after the All-Star break, when he averaged 10.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.6 blocks in 25 games as the shortest starting center in the league. His contributions are atypical -- no points and few blocks for a center with great steals and assists for his position -- and he likely would have been drafted in far more leagues if not for a heart issue that almost hindered his joining the Kings. He's starting for them now and has averaged 10 rebounds per game in the first three contests. He looks primed once again to be a fantasy contributor in his own special way.
Ramon Sessions, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (8.6 percent owned): Lost in the hype surrounding No. 1 overall pick Kyrie Irving is the fact that the Cavs have a decent fantasy point guard already in Sessions, who averaged 15.4 points, 4.9 assists and 0.6 steals while shooting 79.9 percent from the stripe with 5.9 attempts per game after the All-Star break last season. His glaring weakness is the fact he hasn't hit 3s in the past, which is almost always a deal-breaker for fantasy point guards. But he's already attempted four 3s per game in each of the Cavs' first two contests, which is more than half of what he attempted all last season. Sessions has said that he knew it was something his game was lacking. Now that he's added it to his repertoire, if he can knock down one per game, his fantasy value increases significantly.
Brandon Rush, SG, Golden State Warriors (6.7 percent owned): Rush is one of those players who has been on and off fantasy squads throughout his career, as he can be a sniper from downtown when he's on. Last December, for example, he averaged 13.1 points and 2.1 3s per game in 31.7 minutes for the Indiana Pacers. He now finds himself in the Bay, playing alongside Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis, so he won't crack the starting lineup unless an injury occurs, but he looks primed to get minutes in the upper 20s. With that, he can flirt with two 3s per game, and he has the uncommon ability to get some blocks from the shooting guard position, as he's averaged 0.6 swats per game in 27 minutes for his career. He's especially helpful in turnover leagues (1.1 turnovers per game for his career, with 1.3 3s, 0.6 steals and 0.6 blocks). Although there's not insane upside, he's entering the prime of his career in a potentially fruitful situation as the Warriors' sixth man.
Mike Dunleavy, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks (1.2 percent owned): It's easy to forget the days when Dunleavy averaged 19.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.0 3s, 1.0 steals and 0.4 blocks per game for the Indiana Pacers back in 2007-2008, as injuries and mediocre play have hampered his production since then. But he's in line for significant run and has a fresh start in Milwaukee, where he should provide plenty of 3s, nice assist numbers for a forward and around a steal per game. He's not especially flashy but provides enough in multiple categories to be worth a steady roster spot in deeper leagues, especially for teams in need of 3-point assistance.
 

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Not Kissing Cousins

DeMarcus Cousins, Zach Randolph and Michael Beasley are making headlines for all the wrong reasons, while there are plenty of injury questions heading into Week 2 of the NBA season. Monday’s Dose will break it all down.

First of all, the Hawks, Bucks, Thunder and Spurs all play five games this week, while the Clippers play two, and the Celtics and Sixers play just three times. Everyone else goes four times in Week 2. In leagues that use actual games played (not averages, or position-start limits), consider picking up and starting Marvin Williams, Jeff Teague, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova, Kendrick Perkins, DeJuan Blair, Richard Jefferson and Tiago Splitter. Conversely, owners of DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups (groin) will have to think long and hard about whether to start them, and I'm leaning toward benching them if you have four-game options available.

I’m no longer going to cover every injury here on Mondays, but all the information you need is in the Rotoworld Injury Report. Click on the link for all the (bad) goodies.

The NBA Season Pass is up and running, so check it out! Weekly projections and rankings, exclusive live chats, the schedule grid and breakdown, customizable scoring, and much more is all there.

Top Stories

Not Kissing Cousins

DeMarcus Cousins reportedly demanded a trade on Sunday and has hit just 17-of-53 shots this season for the Kings. Word out of Sacramento is that it will be up to Cousins whether or not he goes on the upcoming road trip with his teammates, and he was sent home by coach Paul Westphal prior to Sunday night’s game. Geoff Petrie also said he doesn’t plan on trading Cousins, but you have to think they would listen to any and all offers right now. In any case, Petrie plans on meeting with Cousins on Monday and then we should know a lot more about his future with the Kings. Based on how bad he was playing before the ridiculous meltdown, I was already benching him this week. J.J. Hickson started in his place on Sunday and struggled, but is worth a look if Cousins is going to miss multiple games due to his tantrum. Bench Cousins if you own him, but don’t cut him. Just wait and see how this all plays out.

Down Goes Z-Bo, Conley Iffy

Zach Randolph left Sunday’s game with a sprained knee and is iffy for the upcoming week. The good news is it’s just a sprain, but the bad news is that I saw it referred to as a “bad bruise” on Twitter, as well as the fact that he will need an MRI. We should know more information on Monday, so just keep an eye on the Rotoworld NBA news feed. My gut says it’s not a serious injury and that he won’t miss too much, if any, time with the problem. Both Dante Cunningham and Josh Davis would benefit from the loss of Z-Bo, but neither are must-own players unless he’s going to miss significant time.

While we’re talking about the Grizzlies, who looked absolutely awful on Sunday, Mike Conley is day-to-day with his sprained ankle, but he tried to warm up and play last night. Again, stay tuned to Rotoworld for an update on his status, but for now, I’m benching him where I own him. Jeremy Pargo will benefit if Conley misses more games.

The Beas’ Finger & Rise of Rubio

Michael Beasley suffered a pretty gruesome left index finger injury on Sunday, when you could clearly see him freaking out on television by seeing his bone after suffering a “laceration” to the digit. It sounds like he’s going to try to play through it after taking five stitches, but I need more information before putting him in my lineup. While it would seem to be good news that he’s right handed, the bad news is that he shoots with his left hand. To be safe, I’m benching him for now. I’m guessing Wes Johnson will slide to SF and that Wayne Ellington will start at SG if Beasley misses any time, but only give them a look in deeper leagues. Anthony Tolliver could actually be the biggest winner if Beasley is out.

And while we’re talking about the Wolves, Ricky Rubio has played every minute of every fourth quarter they’ve played thus far, and the Wolves got their first win by taking out Dallas on Sunday. Rubio has been a bit of a freak in his last couple games and if he’s still available in your league, pick him up immediately.

Kobe Misfires For a Double-deuce

Kobe Bryant hit just 6-of-28 shots on Sunday (22 misses), finally showing some signs of his well-publicized wrist injury, but I’m still not too worried about it, as he’s prepared to play through the pain. I think Arron Afflalo played solid D on Kobe, while his shot simply wasn’t falling. If I own Kobe, he’s back in my lineup again on Tuesday against the Rockets. And I’m only trading him if I get a very solid offer in return.

Amare’s Ankle

Amare Stoudemire’s ankle caused him to miss Saturday’s game and he’s iffy for Monday against the Raptors. Josh Harrellson had a nice double-double in Amare’s absence on Saturday, but I get the sense Amare will play tonight. Consider him a game-time decision, watch for updates and start him at your own risk.

<!--RW-->Warriors Notes

Monta Ellis missed Saturday’s game to attend the funeral of his grandmother, while Stephen Curry played well in his return from a sprained right ankle. Both guards are expected to be available and ready for Monday’s game at Phoenix, so I’ve got both of them in my lineups. Dorell Wright is really struggling with all aspects of his game right now and looks like one of the bigger busts in fantasy drafts thus far. Let’s just remain calm and keep in mind that we’re only four games into this thing, and he’s averaging a whopping 34 minutes per game. The shooting and scoring should come around, and I like the thought of targeting him as a serious buy-low candidate right now. Whether you roll the dice on him this week depends on your options, but no one would blame you for benching him until he breaks out of the funk. The Suns and Warriors have an odd 3:30 Eastern start on Monday, so you’ll have to make decisions quickly on those players.

Chauncey’s Groin

Chauncey Billups has missed two straight games with a minor groin injury and was a game-time decision on Sunday. That should mean he’s close, but given the fact he’s gimpy and the Clippers play just two games, I’d recommend benching him for the time being, just to be safe. Caron Butler is the big winner if that happens, while Randy Foye and Mo Williams both get a boost. Foye started on Sunday, while Mo-Will started the previous game in his place, and both played pretty well last night.

Commissioner Gordon Injured, As Usual

Eric Gordon has missed three straight games with a bruised knee and sounds doubtful for Monday’s game against the Jazz. He’s been very injury prone in his young career and owners are getting more of the same today. He’s going to be a beast if and when he suits up for the Hornets, but I wouldn’t have the stones to start him this week if I owned him. Marco Belinelli is starting in his place, but Trevor Ariza is probably the guy who benefits most from his absence.

Ripped Groin

No, Richard Hamilton’s groin is not torn, but he missed Sunday’s game due to soreness in the area. No one on the Bulls is worth a pickup in his absence, but the injury doesn’t sound too serious. Rip isn’t exactly setting the league on fire right now, so surely you can find a safer guy to start in his place for your fantasy team.

Hawks Woes

The Hawks are playing well and winning games, but the big names have all been pretty inconsistent to start the season. I’m not sure why, but with five games, Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Jeff Teague and Marvin Williams all look like must-starts, while Tracy McGrady is worth a close eye in most leagues. We’re only a week in and I think the aforementioned players will get it going this week.

My Name Is Jonas

Jonas Jerebko is averaging nearly 14 points, seven rebounds, a steal and a 3-pointer in four games this season and could have a handle on the starting PF job in Detroit. Charlie Villanueva’s suspension is over, but he hasn’t played due to the fact he hasn’t practiced and may not be in shape. As long as JJ is starting, he should be in starting lineups for fantasy owners.

Sammy D vs. Jordan Hill

Just when it seemed as if Samuel Dalembert was ready to take over the starting center job from Jordan Hill on Saturday, Hill responded with season highs of 11 points and 15 rebounds (career high), and added a steal and a block in another start. Hill hadn’t done a whole lot up to that point, while Dalembert is averaging six points, six boards and 2.5 blocks in just 19 minutes off the bench. Sammy D is going to start at some point, but the numbers are good enough that he should probably be starting in fantasy leagues right now. The Rockets play four times this week, and I recommend running Sammy out there instead of DeAndre Jordan (2 games) this week. And if Dalembert replaces Hill as the starter, it’s just a bonus.

Wha’ Happened?

Toronto’s James Johnson got off to a ridiculous start, racking up 14 boards, seven assists, eight steals and five blocks in his first two games, making him a hot pickup. But he’s disappeared in his last two games and his minutes have taken a nose dive. I doubt it lasts, but I’m benching him until the drought is over. As I said on Twitter, having JJ disappear while in the starting lineup in my 30-team league makes me feel like my dog ran away. He’ll be on my bench this week and possibly cut if the minutes don’t return soon.

Wha’ Happened?, Part 2

Marshon Brooks rattled off 17, 17 and 21 points in three straight games and appeared to be able to score at will in all of them. He then played just 12 minutes and didn’t score on Sunday, as he was apparently benched due to some defensive struggles. Avery Johnson said afterwards that he expects Brooks to bounce back, and I concur. However, I’m going to bench him for now, as he looks more like a “nice to own” option instead of an automatic starter right now. And when I bench him, you can probably expect him to have a big week for the Nets. Start him at your own risk.

Out of Favors

Derrick Favors is officially coming off the bench now that Al Jefferson’s ankle is healthy, with Paul Millsap starting at PF for the Jazz. This is a three-headed monster, but Jefferson and Millsap are the guys you want in your lineup for now. Favors is worth holding in all leagues, but I’m going to put him on the bench until he wins the starting job again, or if Jefferson or Millsap suffer an injury.

Jordan Crawford vs. Nick Young

Nick Young has taken over the starting gig from Jordan Crawford but the two are alternating big games for the Wizards. Young looks like the safer own/play for now, but Crawford is not going away quietly. Both guys are a bit of a fantasy crapshoot, so weigh your options carefully when thinking about putting either of them into your lineup. On a side note, my guy JaVale McGee had 16 points, 14 boards and five blocks on Sunday, and after a bit of an erratic start, looks like a must-start center going forward. You’re welcome.

Heating Up

Ryan Anderson – Averaging 19.5 pts, 6.5 rebs, 4.0 threes and nearly a block per game. Start him.
Spencer Hawes – 12 pts, 12.5 boards, 1.3 steals and 1.8 blocks after four games. Roll with him.
Mehmet Okur – 12 pts, 5.5 rebs, 2.0 3-pointers in last two games. Startable as fantasy center.
Jared Dudley – 15 pts, 1.5 3-pointers over last two games, could be heating up.
Chase Budinger – 14 pts, 1.5 steals, 2.0 3-pointers over last two games. Coming on.
Nicolas Batum – 11.5 pts, 6.0 rebs, 1.0 blks and 1.5 threes. Looked good on Sunday, grab him.
George Hill – 15.5 pts, 5 rebs, 2 steals over last two games. Give him a look.
Caron Butler – 14.5 pts, 4.3 rebs, 2.8 asts, 1.3 stls, 1.5 threes on season. Play him until injury.
Norris Cole – 12 pts, 3.5 assists, 1.8 steals in five games and big on Sunday. Worth a stash.
Carlos Delfino – 5 games this week, 15 pts, 6 rebs, 3 3-pointers in debut. Worth a shot in Week 2.
 

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The Unstoppable Kyle Lowry
With one full week of the season complete, and at the outset of a calendar year foretold in a certain John Cusack film to be the last in our planet's existence, it's understandable that we're all feeling a bit emotional about our fantasy basketball teams right now. Specifically, most of us are either convinced that our team is an unstoppable juggernaut, or saddened by the belief that we’ve drafted a hopeless collection of losers – with little room for rational assessment in between.

Granted, some of us probably deserve to be sporting obnoxious grins right about now, and others should have legitimate causes for concern. But either way, the goal of this bowl of Stew is to highlight some of the key topics swirling around the world of fantasy hoops, and hopefully bring some sanity to all of our demented viewpoints.

Is it time to purchase tickets for the Ricky Rubio bandwagon? Yes, basketball fans, it is. In addition to suddenly making the Wolves a rather compelling squad to watch, Rubio has already established intriguing fantasy value just four games into his NBA career, averaging 9.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 7.3 apg, 1.0 spg and – as a bonus – 1.0 threes (including 13.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 9.5 apg and 2.0 threes in his last two games prior to a Monday night matchup with San Antonio). Obviously he won’t continue shooting threes at 66.7 percent (4-for-6), but it’s very encouraging that Rubio can hit from NBA three-point range, and his ability to score is a huge boost to his undeniable wizardry as a passer. It’s fair to expect some inconsistency from the 21-year-old, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to be a reliable – and at times, explosive – fantasy point guard all season long.

Follow me on Twitter: @MattStroup

Why does Danilo Gallinari suddenly look like a worse jump-shooter than Metta World Peace? Overall, Gallinari has shown a solid all-around floor game for the Nuggets (13.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.2 apg and 2.4 spg), but he’s been locked in a rotten shooting slump: 3-for-23 (13 percent) on threes through his first five games, and when he did actually bury a three on Sunday (a day he went 1-for-7 from downtown), Gallo threw his hands in the air in a partially sarcastic but also sincere celebration.

So what to do about this three-point drought? Personally, I would advise patience, as I think it’s simply a matter of tired legs. A number of Gallinari’s threes have been flat and short, but he’s way too proven a shooter to struggle much longer. Consider Gallinari – who plays against the Bucks Monday night – a solid buy-low if his owner in your league has lost patience with the rough shooting early on.

Since you mentioned Gallinari as a potential buy-low, can you suggest some others? Certainly. A few prominent names that come to mind are:

* Rudy Gay: averaging just 13.3 ppg and 0.3 threes on 35.4 percent from the floor, but the rest of his stats look good and the scoring should come around.

* Jrue Holiday: He’s averaging just 2.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists (to go with 15.5 points), but his minutes are steady at 35 per game and the rebounds and assists are virtually guaranteed to rise.

* David West: Prior to Monday night he had shot just 36.7 percent while averaging 12.3 ppg, but his 8.3 rpg, 0.8 spg and 1.0 bpg will look quite nice once he elevates his scoring into the 18-19 ppg range.

* Josh Smith: Has had some ugly games and is still taking too many jumpers (what else is new), but he’s underachieving – and should improve – in virtually every statistical category.

And who are you selling high on? One player who strikes me as a definite sell-high is Spencer Hawes. Yes, I know that he’s still only 23 and may have finally figured things out, but it’s still much more likely that this is the same sometimes dynamic but altogether inconsistent Hawes that we’ve seen the past several years. If another owner is ready to buy in, I would happily move Hawes in exchange for a more reliable option.

Another sell-high I would at least consider is Ryan Anderson. I admit that this one is easier said than done, because I actually have Anderson in my main league and am not currently trying to deal him. With that said, his scoring (20.4 ppg) and threes (4.2) can really only go down from here, and he doesn’t do a whole lot else in other counting stats (6.2 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.6 bpg). There’s nothing wrong with keeping him on your roster, because I do think he’s good for 15-plus ppg and a lot of threes, but don’t argue if another owner is willing to overpay.

What’s going on with Dorell Wright? As we all know, last season saw Wright break out with 16.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.8 bpg and 2.4 threes, numbers that made him the No. 19 overall player in Basketball Monster’s rankings for 9-category leagues. However, with Mark Jackson now coaching the Warriors, Wright has struggled badly, averaging just 8.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, 0.5 spg and 0.3 bpg while going 3-for-17 on threes prior to a Monday afternoon matchup with Phoenix.

Unfortunately, for those anticipating a swift and dramatic turnaround in 2012, I regret to inform you that it’s probably not happening. A good friend of mine who has watched essentially every Warriors game for the past four years has pegged this year’s edition of Wright at about 11 points and six rebounds per game. And even though Wright should break out of this current funk and could beat that 11 and 6 projection, his top-20 stats from last year should be considered a thing of the past.

Who are some other players I’m not interested in buying low on? A few who come to mind:

* Devin Harris: He just doesn’t look like the same explosive player he used to be, and though that might be because he’s working himself into shape, it’s not worth the gamble given that he has averaged just 67 games played the past four years.

* Tim Duncan: I know he’ll improve on his wretched numbers (9.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 34.2 percent shooting entering Monday), but this is just not the season to have the headache of a 35-year-old on a steep decline, facing a reduced minute count and sitting out random games.

* Jason Richardson: I’m optimistic that his scoring average will increase from its current 9.8 ppg as of Monday, but his 10.4 FG attempts per game represent a career-low, and the days of J-Rich scoring 18 or even 15 ppg are most likely over.

Editor's note: For updated rankings, projections, exclusive columns and more, check out Rotoworld's NBA Season Pass.

Any revisions from last week’s column? Yes, and I’m glad you asked. Last week, I attempted to guess which player drafted outside the first round has the best shot at returning top-10 value. My answer then was John Wall, and though I’m still encouraged by Wall’s potential this season (especially after a 19-7-8 line on Sunday), there’s another point guard who has an even better chance at the top-10: Kyle Lowry. Granted, I’m not saying Lowry is a lock for first-round value, but with averages of 13.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 11.5 apg, 2.5 spg and 1.0 threes so far, he has been the No. 5 overall player in 9-category leagues, according to Basketball Monster. That makes him the No. 1 overall fantasy PG at the moment (just ahead of Ty Lawson), and though he'll eventually be challenged and potentially surpassed by Derrick Rose and Chris Paul, it's not absurd to think that Lowry could contend with top-10 value all season long.
 

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Hand Down, Manu Down

Monday was a holiday for most of you, but we were hard at work covering a myriad of pregame news, in-game injuries and post-game analysis on another busy night in the NBA. I’m going to call this edition the Good, the Bad and the Ugly, as it’s a pretty fitting title for what went down. However, we’re going to start with the Ugly.

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The Ugly

Manu Ginobili suffered a broken left (shooting) hand on Monday night and while we still don’t know his timetable, will miss at least two weeks and possibly two months. I’m guessing he’s out for at least a month, meaning owners should panic and start making plans for a replacement. Here’s the fallout from the injury in San Antonio.

Tony Parker is suddenly a hot prospect, and I think he should be targeted in trades going forward. Looking back at 2008-09, when Manu missed a lot of time with an injury, Parker had scoring games of 55, 43 and 38 points when Manu wasn’t in uniform. Yes that was three years ago, but the Spurs are hurting for offense and Parker is going to take over, if his legs will let him. I’m not suggesting you’ll see a 55-point game out of him this season, but he always seems to take over when Manu is out, and I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t happen again.

Richard Jefferson was one of our recent recommendations with five games this week and he had 16 points and four 3-pointers on Monday. He’s going to get more touches with Manu out and will probably be worth hanging onto after the five-game week is over.

Gary Neal is in the D-League rehabbing from his appendectomy, but will return very soon. He is probably the most talented reserve and is worth a close eye in all leagues. And if he hadn’t been out with this injury, he could easily be starting. Instead, James Anderson is your new starter at shooting guard, at least for now. He’s not a must-own player just yet, but if he plays well in the first half against the Warriors on Wednesday, go ahead and grab him.

Rookie Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green are the other candidates to get some extra run in Manu’s absence, and while neither is worth adding in most leagues, they’re just guys you’ll want to keep an eye on. I received a note on Twitter from someone who sold high on Kobe Bryant in order to get Manu and Kevin Martin, and I made some comment like “I like it, as long as Manu and Kev-Mart stay healthy.” Less than eight hours later, that guy is depressed and I feel bad. We should have a definitive timeline on Manu in the next 48 hours, so stay tuned.

Other Ugly Surprises

Nene was a surprise DNP on Monday with a bruised foot and is day-to-day. Kosta Koufos started in his place and had eight points, six boards, a steal and a block, but Nene’s injury doesn’t sound serious. Let’s hope that Nene is back on Wednesday and ignore Koufos for now.

David Lee was in the hospital on Monday due to a virus and was later sent home after receiving an IV. He missed the loss to the Suns and remains day-to-day. He is likely dehydrated and I’m going to call him a game-time decision for game against the Spurs on Wednesday. Dominic McGuire started in Lee’s place and played very well with 14 points and nine rebounds, and while he’s worth a watchful eye, I don’t really see a reason to pick him up right now.

Kris Humphries was a surprise DNP as well, sitting out with a sore shoulder. He sounds doubtful for Wednesday and owners should make other plans for that day. Shelden Williams started in his place and had three blocks, but will only be worth a look if Humphries has a serious injury. And I don’t think he does.

Mike Dunleavy sat out with the flu and Carlos Delfino started in his place. I was already all over Delfino as a hot pickup with five games this week and he certainly answered the call last night. He racked up 14 points, nine rebounds, three steals, two blocks and three 3-pointers in 42 minutes. As long as Delfino stays healthy, Dunleavy may not see another start anytime soon, but that’s just a guess. Hopefully Delfino continues to roll for those of you who picked him up.

Jermaine O’Neal sat out with a hamstring injury allowing Greg Stiemsma to start at center. He came through with 13 points, seven rebounds and two blocks, and given O’Neal’s injury history, can safely be stashed in most leagues. O’Neal is day-to-day and will probably be that way the rest of his career, but was coming off a 19-point, seven-rebound effort on Friday. Oh well.

Tyrus Thomas is still out with a sprained ankle but the news on Monday was that D.J. White, who had a career-high 21 points on Sunday, might end up taking the starting PF job from Thomas, according to coach Paul Silas. Thomas still isn’t ready to return from his injury, but let’s see what DJW does in his next game before reading too much into this.

Kirk Hinrich will miss another month while recovering from shoulder surgery, according to Hawks VP Dominique Wilkins. My buddy Rick Kamla is holding Hinrich in our 30-team league, but I can’t see Hinrich being worth a roster spot in normal leagues – especially with as well as Jeff Teague is playing.

The Rest of the Injury Roundup

Trevor Ariza – Left with a groin injury. If he misses time Al-Farouq Aminu is worth a look.
Zach Randolph – Day-to-day, precautionary knee MRI coming on Tuesday. Owners should cross fingers.
Amare Stoudemire – Missed Monday with ankle injury, a little iffy for Wednesday.
Eric Gordon – Missed another on Monday, targeting Wednesday vs. Philly. Watch for updates.
Mike Conley – Said Monday he wants to play through ankle injury on Tuesday. Start at your own risk.
DeMarcus Cousins – Traveling with team after meltdown and won’t start Tuesday. But should play.
Chauncey Billups – Groin injury has kept him out of two straight. My guess is he’ll play Wednesday.
Richard Hamilton – Practiced through groin on Monday and likely for Tuesday, but a risky fantasy start.
Iman Shumpert – Targeting Wednesday return from knee injury and worth a look in deeper leagues.
Ronny Turiaf – Broken hand and will miss five-to-six weeks, not that he had value in the first place.
<!--RW-->
The Good

Michael Beasley played through five stitches in the index finger of his shooting hand and had 19 points, five boards, three assists and two 3-pointers. Get him back in your lineup if you benched him after Sunday’s scare. And give him some credit, as he could have easily taken the night or week off.

Marshon Brooks started the second half for the Nets and may be ready to replace Sundiata Gaines at shooting guard any day now. He had 21 points, seven rebounds, two steals and two 3-pointers in 32 minutes on Monday and should now be owned in all leagues. If he’s out there in yours, it’s because he had an off of just 12 minutes on Sunday. Outside of that disaster, he’s been money.

Paul George bounced out of a slump to hit all five of his 3-pointers and finish with 21 points, a steal and block on 8-of-10 shooting Monday. I’m a huge fan and he should still be owned in all leagues going forward.

Markieff Morris broke out for 16 points, nine boards and a 3-pointer in Monday’s win. He’ll still have to fight off Channing Frye and Hakim Warrick for minutes, but sure looks like an NBA player to me. Frye had 10 points and 10 boards, but if he doesn’t turn it on soon, Morris could easily steal his job. Put him on your watch list and pounce if he plays well against the Mavs on Wednesday. As for Frye, with all those bigs to fight for minutes with, it’s conceivable that you can drop him for someone who can help your team right now.

Jarrett Jack blew up for 27 points, five boards, 11 assists, a steal, two blocks and a 3-pointer on 11-of-17 shooting Monday. This is the game I’ve been waiting for, so go make sure he’s not still sitting on waivers in your league.

Al Harrington had 17 points, eight rebounds and another 3-pointer on Monday. He chose to come off the bench in the absence of Nene, but played well once again. Grab him if he’s still available.

Jared Dudley hit 6-of-14 shots and two 3-pointers for 15 points, four rebounds and two assists in Monday's win over the Warriors. Dudley had 14 points and a three in his previous game, and scored 16 on Friday. That's three straight nice outings and it looks like the slump is over. Pick him up if you need a shooting guard or threes.

Toney Douglas had 22 points, four boards, four assists and four 3-pointers last night and continues to be a very serviceable starting point guard. This could be the sell-high game you’ve been waiting for, as Baron Davis is lurking in the shadows.

Andray Blatche owners have been wanting to drop him but there’s no arguing his talent. He turned it around with 28 points, nine boards, two steals and two blocks Monday, so make sure he’s not sitting on waivers in your league. He’ll be inconsistent, but potential lines like this make him worth holding onto.

Ben Gordon had 26 points, six assists and two 3-pointers in Monday’s win and could be getting his confidence back. He’s starting for Detroit and is now worth a pickup in most, if not all leagues.

Jonas Jerebko had eight points and 11 boards for the Pistons and is another hot player flying off waiver wires. If you’re thin at PF, grab him.

Tracy McGrady dominated in a fourth quarter win over the Heat with 16 points, seven boards, four assists and three 3-pointers. He’s playing very well off the Hawks bench, but I’m still not ready to pick him up in 12-team leagues.

The Owned

Monta Ellis returned from a personal leave and double-doubled with 18 points, 11 assists, five rebounds, a steal, a block and a 3-pointer. Get him back in your lineup.

Kevin Love is on fire and had his best line yet on Monday with 24 points, 15 boards, three steals, two blocks and four 3-pointers. I haven’t been the biggest fan of drafting Love at No. 3 or 4 this year, but am here to tell you I was wrong. Just don’t get used to those blocks and steals.

As the leader of the JaVale McGee fan club I’m pretty giddy over his last two lines. He had 17 points, 14 rebounds and three blocks on 8-of-9 shooting against the Celtics on Monday after going for 16 points, 14 boards and five blocks on Sunday, also against the Celtics. It’s too bad the Wiz don’t play the centerless C’s every night.

Serge Ibaka played an amazing 41 minutes last night and had 10 points, eight rebounds, a steal and two blocks. I’m not alone when I say “more minutes, please!”

Stephen Jackson was better on Monday with 17 points, four assists, two steals and a 3-pointer, and he should be ready to finally get it going.

Danilo Gallinari had 21 points, 10 rebounds and a three last night and is on his way to having a huge year after a sluggish start.

Devin Harris had 19 points, five assists and three 3-pointers for the Jazz on Monday. He’s been terribly
inconsistent, with the key word being ‘terrible.’ But owners should learn to take the good with the bad and stick with him until he gets injured.

The Rest

Rasual Butler had 13 points and 10 rebounds on Monday for the Raps, but ignore him for now.
Luke Ridnour had 19 points, nine dimes and two 3-pointers for the Wolves, but don’t get too excited.
Wes Johnson was 6-of-6 for 14 points, two 3-pointers, a steal and block for MIN. Monitor him.
Ian Mahinmi had 10 points and nine boards off the Mavs bench. Keep an eye on him.
Jason Smith had 16 points, eight boards, a steal and block. Landry was benched, so just watch him.

The Bad

Stephen Curry dealt with foul trouble and struggled for 10 points and two 3-pointers in just 23 minutes. His ankle looks fine and he couldn’t get it going or stay out of foul trouble yesterday. Keep him in your lineup.

Dorell Wright hit rock bottom, missing all four of his shots and failing to score in a loss to the Suns. I really think his job is in jeopardy with Brandon Rush being the guy ready to steal it. Grab Rush if you have room and see what happens. If you drafted Wright, it’s still probably too early to cut him, but I would understand if you want to. I’m going to bench him for now and if Rush takes his job, may give him the boot. He’s easily the No. 1 fantasy bust after Week 1.

Marcin Gortat played just 18 minutes for Phoenix and finished with five points, three rebounds and a block on Monday afternoon. The Suns played a small lineup for the second half and while I’m not ready to give up on Gortat, he may be hitting your waiver wire soon. And if he does and you need a center, grab him. He’s just not this bad.

James Johnson was useless again on Monday, picking up five fouls in 11 minutes. He got off to a great two-game start this season, but has been really bad in three straight. There’s still a chance he takes Rasual Butler’s job in Toronto, but unless he drastically improves over the rest of the week, cut him loose.

Jordan Crawford hit just 1-of-6 shots for five points on Monday, while starter Nick Young was 3-of-14 for 10 points. Both guys are going to eventually get it going consistently, but right now they’re more of a headache to own than anything else. Drop them for Ben Gordon or another hot free agent and let someone else deal with them. Just don’t be surprised if Crawford gets hot and goes crazy for a three-week stretch at some point.

Josh Smith is struggling and I’ll simplify this by just posting our most recent blurb:

“Smith, who has been dealing with swelling in his right knee, hit just 4-of-12 shots for nine points, six rebounds, three assists, a steal and a couple blocks in Atlanta's impressive win over the Heat on Monday. Maybe it's the knee, maybe it's the matchups (Chris Bosh tonight) or maybe he's being an unselfish player, but whatever the case, his numbers are down and owners are losing patience. His season high is just 15 points and he's scored in single digits in three of his five games. He was also shooting just 37% from the floor coming in and that number is heading south once tonight's dud is factored in, and his 1.3 blocks and 55% free throw shooting are equally as disappointing. There is no way he stays this bad as long as his knee issue is minor, and we're all for targeting him as a buy-low right now. The vine should be ripe for the picking.”

Marvin Williams was a recommendation this week due to the five games but he had just eight points, three boards and zero 3-pointers in 22 minutes. Let’s keep in mind he was facing LeBron James last night and he still has four games to get it turned around. But he’s been really quiet in his last two and owners should feel free to cut him loose if he doesn’t get it going again in the next four games. Before the drop off he was averaging about 14 points, eight boards and 1.5 threes per game.

The Rest

John Wall was 4-of-13 with seven turnovers Monday. Selling now would be the ultimate sell-low.
Jameer Nelson was 1-of-5 for four points and five dimes. He’s inconsistent, but has no threat to his job.
Jason Richardson was 1-of-5 for four points. He’ll get it turned around, but can you wait for him?
Ryan Anderson had 13 points, six boards and a three. If this is bad, owners are in good shape.
Anthony Morrow was 1-of-8 in 15 minutes and Marshon Brooks is coming. Dump him.
DeJuan Blair hit just 2-of-9 shots in 28 minutes. Just chalk it up as an off night.
Paul Millsap had six points and six boards. Timeshare with Favors is hurting him greatly.
Derrick Favors came off the bench for nine points, five boards and two blocks. Timeshare is brutal.
Ricky Rubio had just six points and three assists, but DO NOT CUT HIM.
Jason Kidd was scoreless with 5 boards & 9 dimes. He is looking droppable to me.
Arron Afflalo was 2-of-8 for four points. I still think he’ll bounce back, but cut him if you must.
Carl Landry had 3 & 3 in 17 minutes. Inconsistency coming w/ Kaman/Jason Smith around.
 

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Grant Theft Roto: Early trade targets

Notable names like Griffin, Wall, Bynum, Deng could still be had cheaply in right deal

By Tom Carpenter
Special to ESPN.com

You may remember the 2000 movie "Gone in 60 Seconds," about a car thief who has to steal 50 cars in one night to save his brother's life. The star of the film, Nicolas Cage, had 49 in the bag before he ended up in a crazy car chase to swipe the last and finest car, a 1967 Shelby Mustang GT 500 named "Eleanor." This wasn't exactly a masterpiece of film, but it was a pulse-pounding thriller from beginning to end, very much like how the 2011-12 NBA season appears poised to roll.


In a typical 82-game season, I have always preached patience early. Specifically, I have recommended that fantasy hoops owners wait a full three or four weeks before reacting to the current season's stats or player production, because it takes a little while for teams to settle into their rotations and for players to settle into their roles. The trouble during this abbreviated 66-game NBA season is that we lost that month to be patient when nearly 20 percent of the season was canceled.


Now we are in a 66-game sprint to the late-April finish line, so there is no time for patience when we are trying to commit Grand Theft Roto by stealing quality players from our opposing owners. Next week, I'll break down some trade techniques and philosophies. Due to the compressed timeline, though, I'll cut to the proverbial chase this week and take a look at players to target like Cage's "Eleanor" before this season is gone in 66 games.



Griffin


Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers: In nearly every industry draft in which I took part, Kevin Love was drafted no later than the middle of the first round and Griffin went in the middle or end of the second round (at least in drafts where I didn't take Griffin in the middle of the first round). I understand why people are hyped about Love; who wouldn't love a scorer who can rebound at a historic pace while banging down some treys? But why wasn't Griffin getting the same love? Granted, Griffin doesn't shoot 3s like Love and he takes a tremendous number of free throws (8.5 last season), hitting a poor percentage of them (64.2 percent last season). However, as a rookie on a bad team with no point guard to speak of, Griffin outdid Love last season by 2.3 points, 1.3 assists, 0.4 steals and 0.2 blocks per game, and 3.6 percent from the field. Now Griffin is in his second campaign and has Chris Paul feeding him the ball, so why shouldn't we expect Griff to continue outperforming Love in a number of categories? If you trade for Griffin, you'll have to counter his free throws, but the rest of his upside is unlimited. Go get him before he gets comfortable with CP3 and fully explodes.



Wall


John Wall, Washington Wizards: The top pick in the 2010 draft has been kind enough to play relatively terribly early this season, which means his trade value is low. He has yet to nail a 3-pointer in five games, has been thoroughly inconsistent as a scorer (13, 20, 6, 19, 11 points) and is averaging just 31.8 percent from the field. Don't focus on his short-term flop. Focus on some of his splits from last season that display his upside: 10.5 dimes in 16 January games, 18.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.9 spg and 78.7 FG% on 7.0 FTA in 27 post-All-Star break games. You may have to overcome a high turnover rate and a field goal percentage in the low 40s, but the rest of his upside is so tremendous, it's worth buying low on him now.



Bynum


Andrew Bynum, Los Angeles Lakers: The risk in having an injury-prone Bynum on your roster in a season where NBA players are taking part in four or five games per week, instead of the typical three or four games per week, is obvious. In fact, it's about as obvious as Bynum's fantasy upside. Bynum is just 24 years old and averaged a double-double for 35 games four seasons ago and 2.0 blocks in 54 games last season. We can see his complete upside by viewing some splits. Bynum averaged 13.3 rebounds and 2.5 blocks while hitting 64.6 percent of his shots in 11 March games last season. Two seasons ago, when Bynum averaged 35 minutes in a dozen November games, he cranked out 18 points, 10 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 57.2 percent from the field. Now Lamar Odom and coach Phil Jackson are gone, while Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol are dinged up and in their 30s. It's time for a changing of the guard on the Lakers, so all Bynum needs to do is stay on the court and he can finish as an elite fantasy center. We can't ignore the fact that he hasn't topped 65 games since his 82-game 2006-07 campaign, but I see it as a now-or-never scenario for Bynum, and his upside has me taking the risk on "now."



Deng


Luol Deng, Chicago Bulls: I'm always wary of players whose fantasy value is tied directly to having a big role on offense. Shawn Marion is a perfect example. He was a fantasy stud with the Phoenix Suns because he played upwards of 40 minutes per game and was a favorite of Steve Nash on fast breaks. When he joined the Miami Heat and other teams, his minutes and shots per game dipped and he quickly became an ordinary player. Deng is in a similar situation because he would be an ordinary player if he wasn't playing upwards of 40 minutes and taking 14 shots per game. However, with the current Bulls rotation, Deng has no competition for minutes or touches, so there's little reason to think he won't match last season's production. Since that includes some production in every category, he makes for a solid player to target in trade proposals to round out your roster.



Gallinari


Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets: It's no secret that Gallinari is a 3-point threat, which is the main reason fantasy folks see him as a nice sleeper. What may be lost on the typical fantasy owner, though, is what else Gallinari offers statistically. At 6-foot-10, he has the ability to average five or six rebounds per game, which is a solid number for a small forward. In fact, he ranked sixth among NBA small forwards last season when he averaged 4.9 rpg. You may also be surprised that a 3-point shooter like Gallinari also is a volume free throw shooter. Only a dozen players averaged more free throw attempts than Gallinari last season (6.3 per game), and he drained 86.2 percent of them. Now he's expected to be an integral part of the Nugs offense, so he should see even more free throw attempts. He's just 23 years old, but once he settles in and gets comfortable as a pro, we should see his field goal percentage (42 percent over his three-year career) rise to a respectable level. If he can get it up to 45-46 percent, he could easily average more than 18 points, two 3-pointers and five rebounds, and be among the league leaders in free throws.



Monroe


Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons: You can't look at Monroe's rookie averages and get excited, and there's nothing sexy about his block totals (or lack thereof: 0.6 bpg as a rookie). However, it's only a matter of when -- not if -- Monroe will average 15 ppg and 10 rpg with terrific percentages. In 25 games after the All-Star break last season, Monroe averaged 13.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 2.2 apg, 0.8 bpg, 58.0 FG% and 71.0 FT%. He did that despite playing just 33 minutes per game and taking just 9.5 shots per game. New coach Lawrence Frank has promised to run much of the offense through Monroe, so there's little doubt that he will match, and likely exceed, that production this season.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Dose: To Sell or Not to Sell

Because I aim to please I decided to go big on this Dose, as usual, but the Kobe Bryant wrist injury and Andrew Bynum beast mode got me digging into game tape. Decisions to buy or sell those guys are going to be big for owners, so I figured I’d go a bit more in-depth. I left them for the end, though, so if you don’t own those guys you can get right in it.

And for more real-time news, information, and commentary likely to get me fired one day, you can follow me on Twitter here!

And check out our Season Pass here. Updated daily, we provide daily pickups, projections, articles, exclusive chats and more.

MAMA THERE GOES THAT HAND

Maybe Mark Jackson or Doctor A can help me with my Golden State Warrior play calls, but in the meantime we’ll learn today how much James Anderson or Gary Neal can help owners when Manu Ginobili’s broken hand gets a timetable (hopefully). After a day for the dust to settle this situation is pretty simple, but has a few quirks.

Anderson will start (unless Pop changes his mind) until Ginobili returns, and Neal still needs a few games to get into shape. During that time Anderson will have the chance to earn a significant role. If he hasn’t made an impression, he will likely cede starter’s minutes (and possibly the starting job) to Neal, who is mostly proven and has Pop’s trust. So do you take the guy with a head start or the guy who is proven if you’re staring at both?

Neal has the higher upside if he goes off due to his potential for elite 3-point shooting, but Anderson shouldn’t be poo-pooed in that department, either. He hit 39 percent of his attempts last year and about 37 percent in college. He’s no Neal, but he’s not inept either. Anderson compares similarly to Marcus Thornton, who could score but also didn’t rock the combine with measurables, either.

The answer lies in what you need. If you need a player this week the bet is on Anderson and his head start, his 6’6” height advantage (Neal is 6’4” and would make a small backcourt with Tony Parker), and the fact that Neal is not in game shape. The following week it’s Anderson if he’s hot and Neal if he’s not. If you’re looking for a home run, despite the fact that Neal could theoretically hit a bunch of threes and go off, you’re betting that Anderson follows up on his preseason promise and never lets go. If you’re playing it a bit safer and you’re iffy on Anderson, it’s Neal given what he has proven.

Don’t say I don’t give something for everybody around here.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Rookie Kyrie Irving hit 8-of-10 shots last night and finished with a season-high 20 points, two threes, three boards, six assists, two blocks, and zero turnovers in Tuesday’s win as he continues to live up to the hype. He’s providing fourth-round per-game value in 8-cat leagues in just 26 mpg so far and earning his lofty early mid-round ADP. Right now Irving is netting just under a steal and a full block per game, along with 1.2 threes to go with solid shooting percentages (45.9/46.2/78.6). He is otherwise averaging 14.6 points, 3.8 boards, and 5.6 assists.

Looking at his late fifth round ADP (based on sketchy ADP data I might add), I never got my hands on the No. 1 overall pick because I had him projected at a seventh round return. Irving’s versatility is buoying his value and it’s a near certainty that he adds 10 mpg to his workload. I’d be willing to bet that we’ll see slippage in his field goal shooting, and most certainly his 3-point shooting rate. That block per game is going to go south, too. Overall, he’s only getting better. Scary.

Knowing he’ll have another 10 minutes per game eventually to add counting stats, betting on top-60 value this year looks real good early. Heck, top-40 value looks like a good bet, but let’s slow our roll five games deep. Congratulations, though, if you burned a fifth round pick on Irving on draft day, because I know I had trouble pulling the trigger that early on a guy in a timeshare with eight college games under his belt.

Fellow rookie Tristan Thompson had his first breakout game last night, scoring a season-high 16 points with nine boards and two blocks in just 24 minutes. This upcoming road trip sounds like a bad time to make rotation changes mid-stream, so my gut says Byron Scott holds him back until the end of it, but Thompson is a guy you’ll want to watch real close over the next few weeks. Once the Cavs pull the trigger on him these numbers are reachable every night. Thompson has definitely passed the ‘bust test,’ and the early returns are good for the Cavs’ war room.

PING PONG BALLS

D.J. Augustin came in sporting a 1-of-11 shooting line from last game, but bounced back with a 10-for-18 mark for a season-high 26 points with four treys, four rebounds, nine assists, a steal, and a block in the Cats’ ugly loss to the Cavs on Tuesday. Kemba Walker was pretty bad last night and has hit a rookie speed bump, and Augustin’s ankle hasn’t made any news lately. Position battle advantage: Augustin. It can stay that way all year as long as Augustin plays well, obviously, and without any traction Kemba is not a must-own player in 12-team leagues.

Boris Diaw started the season with a bang as the focal point of the Bobcats’ offense, but hit rock-bottom with his second straight stinker on a zero-point, five-rebound, one-block outing in 18 foul-plagued minutes. Maybe he’s one of us thicker fellas that can run for days with 30 extra pounds tugging at his waist, but one has to think the schedule got to him.

Owners have lost the opportunity to sell-high for now, but it’s something to consider after each peak of production going forward. One advance scout said last night that the Bobcats are bad enough to finish with the league’s worst record, with Brook Lopez’s timeline for return to the Nets being the tie-breaker between the early toilet bowl contenders. What does this mean? For one, look for Bismack Biyombo and Byron Mullens to get plenty of run down the stretch. Mullens was miscast in Oklahoma City as a classic post guy (shocking, I know), but his pick-and-pop game is welcomed in Charlotte where scoring is needed. It’s a very complimentary pairing given Mullen’s rebounding and low-post difficulties, and Biyombo’s scoring troubles. They complete each other.

Diaw won’t just go away, of course, but we’re talking about an older, inconsistent asset over the years with conditioning issues playing on a losing team.

<!--RW-->MEMPHIS BARBEQUE

The Grizzlies were cooking without Zach Randolph, who is officially listed as day-to-day and should be back sooner rather than later. Rudy Gay had his first breakout game with 23 points, eight boards, two assists, one steal, and one block with a 10-of-16 shooting line. For a guy that posted first round value when healthy, he went woefully underdrafted in my opinion. Marc Gasol continued to impress with his counting stats in a 14-point, 15-rebound, three-assist, two-steal night. The fantasy fluke of the night belonged to Sam Young, who went off for 20 points, seven rebounds, and three steals. The fantasy story on their side of the ledger was Mike Conley (ankle) surprising everybody by coming off the bench, scoring a healthy 14 points with seven assists, four steals, and a three. Get him back in your lineup ASAP. O.J. Mayo showed up with 16 points and four assists, but in a game fraught with garbage time I’m not going to overlook his unimpressive body of work so far. Tony Allen made some noise with 10 points, seven boards, and three steals, but with Gay back in the fold these nights should be far and few between. Dante Cunningham started for Z-Bo, but seven points with four boards and three turnovers isn’t moving the needle.

EYES WIDE SHUT

They might have shot the ball better with closed eyes in Chicago, where the Hawks came pretty close to pulling consecutive wins on the road against the Heat and Bulls in the midst of a six-game in eight-nights set. In the end they wasted a 19-point lead when Derrick Rose came on strong late, but this game was U-G-L-Y. The teams combined to shoot with 54-of-157 (34%), with the Hawks sporting a 14-of-25 mark on FTs (including two key misses by Jeff Teague and one by Al Horford). Here were the gory results: Joe Johnson (3-of-17 FGs, 10 points, four rebounds, four blocks), Jeff Teague (2-of-8 FGs, seven points, four boards), Joakim Noah (0-for-4 FGs, two points, four rebounds, four fouls, 16 minutes).

Rose managed to score 30 points on 8-of-22 shooting with seven assists, three treys, and an 11-of-13 mark from the foul line, Luol Deng scored 21 points on 7-of-15 shooting with a three, eight boards, two steals, and a block, Carlos Boozer scored 11 points with nine boards, two steals, and a block, Josh Smith showed signs of life with 15 points on 6-of-13 shooting, 14 boards, one steal, and two blocks, and Marvin Williams finally paid off with 14 points on 5-of-10 shooting with eight boards and a steal.

In a grind-it-out game like this it’s tough to get on Johnson and Teague for their poor shooting, especially given the Hawks schedule. The funny thing is that they play the Heat twice and the Bulls once more THIS WEEK. There is some serious opportunity to buy low with all of them if their legs wear out and/or they get run. At least they get the doormat Bobcats once during that stretch.

Tracy McGrady suffered a bone bruise in his knee during the Miami game and was shuttled in and out last night. While we know he is not ready for 12-team action, he’s worth tracking for Marvin Williams’ owners. While Marvin has died down since a nice statistical start, and picked it up last night, there has not been one major complaint about his play out of Atlanta. In fact, the calls right now are to find other ways to get Williams on the court with T-Mac together. Plan on sticking with Williams through the rest of this condensed week and see where it goes. He’s playing well.


COWBELL CONUNDRUM

The conundrum in California’s capitol is something I pointed out the day they drafted Jimmer Fredette and traded for John Salmons. That is, of course, that there are too many ball-needy scorers, one basketball, and with a shortened preseason no time to figure out the pecking order.

Problem No. 1: Tyreke Evans. Evans is supremely talented but he isn’t a leader, and he doesn’t know the difference between a good shot and a bad shot. He doesn’t know how to run an offense. He can put his head down, shake his guy, and make plays, and while that’s great by itself it’s not to be built around. For fantasy purposes, he’s a guy I own on zero teams because I wasn’t buying a re-do on his rookie year, a year that produced just fourth year value in 8-cat leagues. In that year he was given carte blanche or Prima Nocta, I can’t recall which, but Kings management desperately wanted something to play for and the 20-5-5 record was what they decided on. Add Marcus Thornton, Jimmer Fredette, John Salmons, and an increasingly needy DeMarcus Cousins and owners likely overshot selecting him on draft day by about four rounds.

Problem No. 2: Marcus Thornton. Don’t get me wrong, the kid has brass balls. He’s a dynamite scorer with somewhat overstated defensive issues. But after the late-season push he had last year, and with no preseason to find the optimal lineup I presented in June, he was handed the starting job next to two guys in Evans and Salmons that need volume to be effective.

Problem No. 3: DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins was on his best behavior last night, and even hit the ground with a Gasol without so much as issuing a snide glance. On the bench during the first quarter he looked like a kid watching his friends play at recess during detention. Paul Westphal, who has lost Kings fans in just a week this season, doesn’t have the juice to tell Cousins what he can and cannot do on the floor. The ball goes in and it doesn’t go out. Manute Bol, Mark Eaton, and Wilt Chamberlain’s 30,000 conquests could be draped all over him and the fadeaway jumpshot IS coming.

Result: The Kings are trying to run sets through Chuck Hayes, but all of the action coming off that set or the various pick-and-rolls they run is weak, lazy, and without direction. This is all the result of guys having no idea what their role is on the court.

What the Kings need to do (and probably will do eventually): Look for guys to play their way out of favor with Westphal, giving him the clearance he needs to start Jimmer Fredette. The key to starting Fredette, in my opinion, was the ability to run Isaiah Thomas with the second unit. Thomas has proven he belongs, and adding Fredette to the point and moving Thornton to the second unit will bring ball movement to the equation.

They should look at starting a defensive presence at SF like Francisco Garcia or Donte Greene for 10-20 minutes per game and stick Salmons on the second unit, too. This balances the two units with scorers and defenders, giving Evans action at both the point and off the ball. Thornton knows that when he’s in the game that he gets to shoot, while Cousins’ sticky hands won’t offend as much with willing passers in Jimmer, Chuck Hayes, and whichever defensive minded SF they start. When all of that is done, they need to run. More possessions mean more touches and happier players.

Fantasy Impact: If the Kings want to hire me they know where I’m at, but none of this is guaranteed to happen. But if you see the Kings move toward that configuration you will start to see stability and production out of your key fantasy guys. Right now defenses are swarming the first and second options knowing that the ball won’t be swung. As for defense, the Kings aren’t getting stops and that is exasperating them on the offensive end.

Owners of Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, and DeMarcus Cousins simply need to hold on for better days. Consider moving them after their next big lines if the symptoms of the cold get addressed but not the cause. John Salmons is droppable for a hot free agent, even if he will be worth owning later on at times. Chuck Hayes is the team’s leader and last night’s 20 minutes isn’t concerning unless it happens a bunch more. J.J. Hickson should be on your watch list in case Cousins implodes. If things begin to click consider holding your Kings assets. But as it stands right now the conundrum in the capitol isn’t getting better until Westphal makes the move.

As for Jimmer, realize that much of his production came in garbage time last night, and though 17 points with four treys looks mighty tempting, realize that he’s bound to be too inconsistent to own until you hear talk about him moving into the starting lineup. Once there, he will add assists and consistency to the equation and prove to be a dynamic fantasy player with upside. On the bench he doesn’t have the cachet to overpower the stares of his teammates, who right now want him to pass the ball.

<!--RW-->YOU GUYS NEED TO TRY HARDER!

If you follow my Twitter feed you know I’m not a Scott Brooks fan. He hung his 22-year old PG out to dry during last year’s playoffs for running his stand-and-wiggle offense, constantly affirming to reporters in postgame pressers that Russell Westbrook needed to play better. It’s no wonder they had a shouting match. I recently had a high school coach look at video of last year’s playoffs and comment, without him knowing anything about my position, on Brooks’ offensive philosophy, sets, and overall strategy. I simply said, “See if you can point out what went wrong.”

“There’s no off-ball movement,” he said. “No coordination, no help for the PG, and no commitment to making the defense pay for overplaying Kevin Durant.” When asked what they should do to get the ball to Durant he said, “Just look at Memphis and Dallas.”

I’ve never seen a pass given like the one being given to Brooks, who commonly gets good marks from both the casual and hard core fan, despite what those that study Xs and Os roundly called the worst playoff coaching effort of the decade. What’s worse is that he uses playing time like currency much like a woman uses sex.

Last night, Serge Ibaka got into early foul trouble, and I’ll be the first to admit that Ibaka has had lapses this season, but rather than shut down an on-fire LaMarcus Aldridge (30 points, eight boards), Brooks chose to play Ibaka 17 minutes. Nick Collison is a nice glue guy and performed admirably on the less physical game of Dirk Nowitzki, but he is no match for a guy in Aldridge with physical advantages.

But that’s the way Brooks rolls. He wants Ibaka to buy into the ‘Brooks Way,’ but it’s anybody’s guess what that actually is. Russell Westbrook is still being told to ‘be aggressive, but don’t turn over the ball.’ Working on a set offense that can withstand the defensive scrutiny of a seven-game series? Not so much. Westbrook is still running at will, taking the first shot he sees, and then finding Durant for some one-on-one action. James Harden (23 points, four rebounds, six assists, three steals) finally got 40 minutes last night, which would be enough for any other NBA coach to signal a need to duplicate those minutes, but Harden also hasn’t bought into the ‘Brooks Way.’ Thabo Sefolosha (flu, foot) missed tonight’s game, and as Darnell Mayberry of the Oklahoman put it, Brooks seemed offended by the idea that Harden should start.

All in all the Thunder didn’t have an answer for Gerald Wallace (13 points, 10 boards) and Nicolas Batum’s (12 points, seven assists, two blocks) defense on Kevin Durant (8-of-26 FGs, 19 points) because they don’t know what to do when the opposing squad has an answer for KD. They bumped him, they swarmed him, and that’s going to be the Thunder’s cross to bear going forward.

Find an offense, find an offensive theory, and use the regular season as a way to teach Westbrook and Ibaka, who have elite, championship ceilings, how to function when opposing teams game plan Durant out of the game.

“It just tells us one thing,” said Brooks about their loss, “that we have to get better.”

And who'd have though yelling at your players to “try harder” in the huddle wouldn't work.

Fantasy Impacts of the POR/OKC game: Harden is unlikely to gain a starting job or the 35+ mpg he deserves despite the big result, but his future is still about as bright as it gets. I’m not moving him anywhere. Westbrook is turning things around after a bumpy start. I’m holding Ibaka as well, as the talent and ceiling is too high. Putting in a buy low offer? Only a low-ball one. The Blazers are impressive. One of their guards/wings is going to be the odd man every night, but on the whole they’re going to be worth owning. Batum’s fantasy friendly game makes owning the boat of them possible in a 12-team league, as he can be effective in limited minutes. Jamal Crawford (eight points, two assists) took a dive but Nate McMillan (a reformed Brooks it seems lately) uses him as a PG which gives him some versatility. Wallace and Aldridge could be draft day steals.

LOCKOUT FEVER

In yet another game that fans should ask for a refund on, the Bucks and Jazz ‘did battle’ in a 85-73 snore-fest that ultimately ended in the Jazz moving up to .500 on the season. With sloppy play everywhere, Brandon Jennings (4-of-19 FGs, eight points, six assists, six boards, four steals) and Stephen Jackson (5-of-17 FGs, 16 points, six rebounds, five assists) were left to their own devices. Depending on your scoring system you were either happy or ambivalent. The story of the night was Andrew Bogut’s personal absence, and we sincerely hope everything is okay for the Aussie big man. Drew Gooden stepped up in a big way with 24 points, 12 boards, and a block, and probably earned more than the five minutes or so per game he was getting prior. Since Ersan Ilyasova was passing up wide open threes and managed just five points with eight boards and a block on 1-of-8 shooting, he’s a perfect target to be knocked off. Carlos Delfino was primed for a big game with Mike Dunleavy out again, but hit just 1-of-8 shots for four points and not much else. In a game so fraught with bad shooting and bad play it would be surprising to see Skiles single him out, and while those could be my famous last words I’m all about holding Delfino. He has elite 3-point shooting value.

As for Gooden, there’s no way I’m chasing that line on a Scott Skiles’ coached team with the log-jam of players they have up and down the roster, not to mention promising rookie Jon Leuer, who’s buried nonetheless.

On the other side, Devin Harris left Tuesday’s game with a strained left calf, the same calf he has had trouble with, and though the injury doesn’t appear to be serious it’s a reminder that he cannot be fully trusted. He still deserves to be owned in 12-team formats, but those owners should be on the lookout for trustable backups. As Adam Levitan pointed out on Twitter, Earl Watson started 13 games for Jazz last year with the following averages: 8.5 ppg, 6.2 apg, 4.0 rpg, 1.2 3PM, 1.0 steals in 33.2 minutes. Harris is day-to-day for now, but give Watson a look as a spot-starter.

I generally tend ride with beat writer Brian Smith of the Salt Lake Tribune, but he sort of sent owners for a ride with his talk about Derrick Favors starting. Reading the grimaces on Ty Corbin’s face when asked about it, one could tell he isn’t comfortable with Al Jefferson coming off the bench, and the more we’ve seen and thought about it the more ridiculous it seems. Big Al is not only playing well (another 26 and 10 with three steals and two blocks last night), but his litany of nagging, minor leg injuries needs a consistent schedule to work from. Now those injuries might make an owner with center depth more likely to sell-high, but realize you’re moving one of the more consistent, elite center plays in fantasy basketball.

Paul Millsap (13 points, 12 rebounds, one steal, two blocks) and Derrick Favors (six points, seven boards, five blocks) will continue to see-saw, and while Millsap will likely be worth owning regardless of where he plays – Favors needs real talk of starting before he’ll be a must-own player in 12-team leagues. He’ll get his numbers against struggling interiors like the one the Bucks fielded last night, but will also disappear on nights he struggles with foul trouble or nights that Millsap gets hot.

<!--RW-->I’D BUY THAT FOR A DOLLAR!

Unless you want to talk about ad space on NBATV, where an endless loop of HoverRound and J.G. Gentworth spots have me prepared for my next car accident, let’s talk about selling high. I’m looking at you Andrew Bynum, you of the career-best 21-point, 22-board, and three-block night. And I’m looking at you Kobe Bryant, he of the severed wrist ligament.

Here’s what we know. Starting in 2007-08 Bynum has played in 35, 50, 65, and 54 games. Each of his knees has been dinged badly. He went on to play the 2010 playoffs with a torn meniscus and strained Achilles’ tendon and notoriously had surgery too late (World Cup) to start last season on time.

Here’s what we’ve learned this week: Holy crap is he a beast. We knew he was a beast, but being paired with Mike Brown’s philosophy of pounding the rock he has turned the page into a book left for physical freaks like Shaquille O’Neal and Wilt Chamberlain. I’m not saying he’s in the book, but he’s making his place in the ‘if you like this book, try this’ section.

Around and through defenders all night, he made Samuel Dalembert look like J.J. Hickson and he made Jordan Hill look like Grant Hill. Simply put, he’s not going to be stopped by anybody but himself, and maybe Dwight Howard. Ironically, after watching Bynum go nuts, I’m not sure I’d take the cancerous Howard over Bynum’s nasty but skilled package. Perhaps Bynum’s knees are the tie-breaker, but Dwight could end up being Wilt Chamberlain to Bynum’s Bill Russell. Tough call, but I’m not trading the farm to bring Howard to La La Land.

Kobe Bryant was also brilliant last night, scoring 37 points on 14-of-29 shooting (2-of-7 from deep) with eight rebounds, six assists, one block, and a bright green light from Mike Brown to do whatever he wants.

What do you do with these guys that could carry your team, or leave it suckling the teet of the waiver wire, longing for that time I told you guys to sell high? Well let’s get something clear, I’m not going to run up to the top of the mountain like I did with Eric Gordon and Deron Williams last year. For one, this is Kobe Bryant we’re talking about, perhaps the king of playing through semi-serious ailments. This is a situation that needs to be handled delicately by owners and is nowhere near as obvious as those two calls were last year.

What we know: He has torn one or more of the lunotriquetral ligaments in his shooting hand. The bones that are stabilized by this ligament help control the wrist from side to side, and not front to back which is essentially the shooting motion. We know Kobe is putting up big numbers, but that he is struggling with his shot (41.7% FGs, 21.2% 3PT). For all the big numbers, he’s still ranked just No. 16 overall in 8-cat leagues at BasketballMonster.com on a per-game basis.

We guess we can say that we know that his wrist is getting a pain-killing injection before each game, though it’s TMZ that reported that. We know that his wrist is swollen before each game and badly after each game. We know that he is in pain. Kobe’s shot chart is pretty clear – the further out he shoots from the worse off he is. I watched tape on every single 3-point shot he has taken this year and Kobe has the exact same approach as in prior years. He takes triple-threat threes, iso threes, pick-and-roll threes, deep threes, and long-distance heaves at the end of quarters. When he misses there is no glaring flaw, though he did leave about a quarter of his normal 3-point shots short (not counting last second heaves). All in all, he looks like a guy shooting with a numb wrist. His touch is gone and the shots simply aren’t falling.

What we don’t know: The degree of the tear is a closely hidden secret it seems, as nobody has seemed to report if it’s completely torn or slightly torn – instead just torn. But according to the one million Kobe Bryant wrist injury Q and As by wrist doctors and wrist institutes, published in reputable media sites and those of possible ill-repute, he’s essentially playing Russian Roulette every night. If he slams it the wrong way, he’s looking at a severe worsening of the injury. If the tear is severe, some say he could be risking the long-term health of his wrist if he re-injures or aggravates it, while if the tear is less severe a reinjury would cost him merely costs him days or weeks. Kobe said “the ligament is gone,” which could mean any number of things and also be a bit of a drama queen thing, but whether the ligament is all the way torn or partially torn – the issue is the same for owners.

Do you ride with a guy whose knees are reportedly strong, but by medical reality relying on somewhat experiemental surgery and going on 200,000 miles? Do you ride with a guy that in all reality will need to rest up before the playoffs if he actually manages to play through this thing? Do you ride with a guy who is one fall away from a season-ending wrist injury?

Some possible resting spots for Kobe start on January 15 and run through February 2. The Lakers have just eight games during that span. Kobe could look at that as a time to get his wrist right and also to preserve his legs during a condensed season. Or he’ll say eff it and continue to chop away. Then there’s the All Star break, and though Kobe would not likely pass up a chance to play in the game, he could opt to play lightly and give himself a full week without shooting a basketball. Everywhere else the schedule is a minefield of tightly bunched games.

I’m not doubting that he can play through it. If anybody can it’s him. But if you ask me if I should sell Kobe for a second round value the answer is ‘tell me where to sign.’ If you ask me if I should sell Kobe for a third-round value I’m all over it. Is he really going to get any better than he’s playing right now? Sometimes the question is about risk management as much as it is about maximizing value. If I can get a high-round value and not have to worry about the downside of ‘nothing,’ I’m gonna take it. And just like everything in this game, it’s a calculated risk.

As for Bynum, the choice here is much more philosophy-based. In talking with Doctor A, we determined that he’s a guy that likes to ride his injury risks and I’m a guy that likes to deal them out (you don’t have to work hard to guess where we stand on Kobe’s wrist). There is no right answer, but in Bynum’s case I think owners are staring at the ol’ win-win. Putting Bynum on the market right now could return some serious value, and in many cases enough to make Bynum’s very real injury risk worth passing off. But with Lamar Odom out of town, what you saw last night with Bynum is what you’re going to get. The numbers obviously won’t be so gaudy, but Bynum has a legitimate shot at first round value.

I don’t trade Bynum unless I’m getting a promising second round projected value in return, in other words, somebody in the top-18 picks on your draft board that hasn’t experienced any red flags. Outside of that range I’d probably pull the trigger on Ty Lawson or Kyle Lowry, too. Unlike Kobe, Bynum isn’t experiencing an injury ‘right now’ that is causing a concern. Yes, he’s proven to be injury prone, but also a bit unlucky. There’s wiggle room here to justify holding where I’m passing risk on Kobe.
 

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Early Player Rater surprises

Can Lowry, Hawes, Harden, George and Chandler remain elite fantasy options?


By Seth Landman
Special to ESPN.com


At this point in the NBA season, each team has played between four and seven games. That may not sound like a huge difference, and over the course of the entire season maybe it really isn't, but if you've played seven games to someone else's four, you've certainly had more chances to accumulate stats. That's important in fantasy basketball; that's why, for at least the first few weeks of the season, we're going to focus more on per-game averages than raw totals.


Fortunately, the Player Rater lets us do just that, so with that in mind, let's look at a few of the biggest positive surprises so far and see whether these current top-30 players can keep up their hot starts. (Rankings based on per-game averages through games of Jan. 3.)



Lowry


Kyle Lowry, PG, Houston Rockets (2): At first glance, his 18-assist performance against the Atlanta Hawks on New Year's Eve looks like the outlier. That many assists in one game is a lot, especially when he's played in only five games, but Lowry is good and contributes across the board in fantasy, so the fact that he's been playing this well is not a major shock. On the other hand, he's definitely not the second-best player in fantasy. He's been a terrible outside shooter in nearly every season of his career, so his poor start from the 3-point line is definitely a bad sign. He averaged 1.4 steals per game in 34.2 minutes last season, so to expect him to keep averaging better than two per game is overly optimistic. Most important, he's been extremely consistent in his assist rate over the course of his career, and the odds are low that he continues anything close to the career-high pace he's set in that category so far this season. He's a good player with the potential to be a top-30 fantasy guy if everything breaks right, but trading him to someone desperate for assists might not be such a bad idea, even this early in the season.



Hawes


Spencer Hawes, C, Philadelphia 76ers (9): Everything about Hawes' performance through the first four games of the season has been pretty fluky given his past performance, so the question isn't whether he'll remain a top-10 fantasy player (he won't), but rather, which elements of his performance most likely might continue. The answer, I think, is probably none. His 1.8 blocks per game don't seem so out of line given that his minutes have increased from 21.2 last season to 33.3 this season, but it's more likely he ends up closer to 1.5. He's not a black hole on offense, but there's also nothing in his past that suggests he will keep averaging 4.0 assists per game. He's been a mediocre rebounder for a center for his entire career, so the fact that he's put together four straight double-digit rebounding games likely won't happen again. Finally, after never averaging better than 0.6 steals per game, he's averaging 1.3 so far this year, and that might be the biggest fluke of all. Three of the four defenses he's faced have been firmly entrenched in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency, so it makes sense that he's been this good so far offensively, and his value, at least this season, probably will never be higher than it is now. If he has a good game against the New Orleans Hornets on Wednesday, you might want to use that as a chance to turn him into a better player.



Harden


James Harden, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder (18): Harden was one of the more hyped players coming into fantasy drafts this season. However, guys like that often end up falling short of their draft positions, but it doesn't appear that will be the case with Harden. He possesses an amazingly efficient all-around game that doesn't appear likely to slip much from where it sits. Yes, he probably will slide back a bit from the 5.9 rebounds per game he's averaging so far, but he also probably will start making more than 29.4 percent of his 3-pointers (he's at 35.6 percent for his career). His field goal percentage doesn't look so special until you realize he's taking a ton of 3s and constantly getting to the line. Once he's at the line, he's a major asset; while he might not shoot 90 percent, he was at 84 percent last season and certainly could improve. All told, the comparisons to Manu Ginobili, at least in terms of fantasy, are starting to look accurate; maybe the only difference will be that Harden can stay healthy. If Harden stays in the top 20 all year, I won't be surprised.



George


Paul George, SG/SF, Indiana Pacers (24): George is the classic roto guy: He contributes a little in every category so he ends up being worth a ton without really being great in any particular category. Since he's carrying most of his weight in 3s made so far this season, the important thing to consider is whether he can keep making 2.4 per game. The answer, of course, is no, he absolutely cannot. George shot 29.7 percent on 3s last season and made 0.7 per game in 20.7 minutes. Those minutes are up to 33.7 this year, and it's reasonable to expect him to improve a bit (he was around 40 percent for his career at Fresno State), but he's shooting 63.2 percent so far this season! Knock him down to 40 percent (which is still probably too generous) and he's only making 1.5 3s per game instead of 2.4. That might not sound like much, but it would take his Player Rater position from 23rd to around 35th, and that's not including the corresponding declines in points and field goal percentage. I'm not trying to knock George down, because he's a really good player who was drafted outside the top 100 in most leagues and is an excellent value, but he's probably not a top-25 guy just yet.



Chandler


Tyson Chandler, C, New York Knicks (28): This might sound crazy because of the way he's perceived, but Chandler isn't really a great shot-blocker. For example, last season, in a season in which he absolutely revitalized the Dallas Mavericks defense, he averaged 1.1 blocks per game and finished 26th in the league in that category behind Marcin Gortat and Dwyane Wade, who, by the way, is a shooting guard. More important, he's been blocking around 1.1 shots per game since 2006-07. So let's look at Chandler's 2.2 blocks per game the same way we looked at George's 3-point shooting. Bring him back down to 1.1 and he's drops from 28th to around 58th, making him only slightly more valuable than Greg Monroe, for example. That's just a reminder to watch out for the Player Rater early in the season, especially in a category like blocks, where one great game (Chandler blocked six shots against the Boston Celtics in the season opener) can carry a player for weeks.
 

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