I looked at your system for the time period, Oct 1999 - Oct 2002, and found that unrested home teams coming off a road game were 236-259 ATS (47.7%). Underdogs within that group were 73-84 ATS (46.5%).
I would venture a guess and say if you did a correlation with the number of married players on a team that it would correspond with losing percentage. The reason they lose is they are tired, they get home from a road trip, and the wife keeps them up half the night bitching and moaning about little Bobby's braces and her emotional problems.
I believe these are Closing numbers.Ben also
surmised that nba linesmakers/public were
sharper in recent years,but not sure how he
tested this hypothesis.
Ciao from maria