Nascar help

dsong · Apr 14, 2005

This week, the sharp play seems to be Nemechek...

He's been bet down from 25-1, all the way to 12-1. Looks like he has a fast car heading into qualifying.

A word of warning: when guys like Jimmie Johnson is quoted at prices like 10-1, it's because they have a junk car for that week. Usually when that happens, they'll struggle through qualifying and practices, and fight all day on race day just to finish in the top 10.

I can't stress this enough: if you're serious about NASCAR, pay attention to qualifying and practices. If a second-tier guy like Mayfield, Sadler, or Nemechek blows through them, it's usually an indication that they'll be strong contenders come race day. On the other hand, if guys like Johnson and Gordon look miserable during practices, move to the back of the field, and/or have to go to their backup cars, they're longshots at best to win.

VeNuS · Apr 14, 2005

Thanks for the info dsong! Very interesting... I´m just starting but I really like it. Do you get the info from nascar.com or you check another site for "extra" info???
I really appreciate the tips!

See ya!
:howdy:
Bite

MarkReynolds · Apr 14, 2005

SPORTSBETTING.COM has a large selection of NASCAR match-ups and props.

rugby · Apr 15, 2005

I have bet Johnson at 10/1 twice this year, and he won in Vegas. So at $50 a pop, I'm up $450. I'll take that all day. Caution.........."Front Row Joe" always has a fast car in qualifying, but when is the last time he finished in the top 5. Always fast with good odds, but he just can't seem to get it done.

Hey Bite................Have you considered Busch racing? I dabble in that too. That just occupies the time on Sat.

GL..........................Rugby :toast:

dsong · Apr 15, 2005

If you got 10-1 on Johnson in Vegas, you got an absolute steal... he had a good car that week and was the race favorite on Sunday.

On the other hand, it would've been absolutely foolish to bet on Johnson at 10-1 last weekend. He was slow in practices, slow in qualifying (qualified 37th), and surprise, surprise - he didn't have a fast car on race day. Just read the post-race quotes from the #48 team: everyone was thanking their lucky stars that they were able to salvage an eighth-place finish from that week.

Top drivers can finish in the top 10, and occasionally in the top 5, with a less-than-stellar car. But it's usually a fast car that ends up in victory lane.

rugby · Apr 15, 2005

I actually got Johnson at 7.5/1 in Vegas. $325 profit. Still not too bad.

Rugby

dsong · Apr 15, 2005

Actually, it sounds like you got 6.5-1. Now that's a bit more realistic. There's no way you could've gotten 10-1 on him after qualifying... and probably not before qualifying, either.

dsong · Apr 15, 2005

Nemechek was second in the morning practice. It looks like he has a fast car once again.

Looking over his career statistics, he has 4 career victories, including 3 in the last 4 years. Over the 4-year span, he's won 2 out of 40 races when he qualified in the top 10 - 5%.

The 5% figure looks about right to me. A good bet at 25-1, but that's long gone.

If you're looking for other live longshots, Mayfield might not be a bad choice. He was third in the morning practice.

However, it looks Johnson and Jeff Gordon will be the cars to beat this weekend. It looks like the #48 team found the right setting this week.