Because at 54% it still makes money and I happen to like money. I didn't say these are my only wagers. There are several cappers here that I value their input.
Jackal,
Would it be possible to apply this system to college BB?
It would probably have to be limited to 2 or 3 conferences.
Would you have to eliminate the out of con. games that they played?
Any thoughts on this?
Thanks.
Jackal,
Would it be possible to apply this system to college BB?
It would probably have to be limited to 2 or 3 conferences.
Would you have to eliminate the out of con. games that they played?
Any thoughts on this?
Thanks.
I have try this in CFF and CBB...the thing is that there are 120 teams...power rate is not like the NBA and or NFL...one team could be 95 vs 55...the stats would be way off...there would have to be another factor put into the formula....Lot of test to get the line to come within 10 points of the real line for 80% of the games....
I was thinking that possibly a majority of your losers were underdogs that went against ronaldn's/larry's 20 game system (http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=644691&page=2). It'd be interesting to see how your value/lines perform if they don't meet the raw scores/filtered faves criteria that ronald goes over in his thread.
I think your 6-10 and 10-15 value picks would be nearly 5% more accurate. I know I will be tracking it daily and omitting your underdogs that goes against the 20 game system to see how it performs. I don't know what your lines were prior to Monday's list, but I do know 2 out of the 3 of your losers would have been eliminated last night and you would have been 1-1 instead (-1.2 units).
Just a thought to get the most out of both systems.
over the last day and a half...I found out that the formula on the sheet was not wt. right....no wt. for FG% ...FT%...and #pt%.....it was so small it was not even a point edge one way or another!...so we ran test on it and it did not look as good as this one....but there were some factor that was not put in...home=3 points...for balance to get more fav...as of now it was putting out 90% dogs
when I came out with this 2 years ago...I was hitting 65% with any play over +10...but.....I did this in FEB...lots of games have been played and that help Lineoff....so one more thing that was not done...teams have too play 20 games before this kicks in....so with all this in a new sheet ...here what it looks like now
..THE NEW ONE GOT LESS PICKS AND 2 FAV AND ONE DOG...YOU KNOW YOU HAVE SOMETHING WHEN THE LINE IS WITHIN +6 80% OF THE TIME....THIS IS ONLY THE 2ND YEAR...TWO YEAR WAS LOST TRYING TO DO IT ON PAPER IS NOT THE WAY TO GO WHEN YOU ARE DEALING WITH LINEOFF EVERYDAY!!!