My Top 10 ATS Teams Of 2009

[russ1945]

Tommyjohn

Another team down that way worth mentioning is Texas A & M. Mike Sherman's second year with 10 and QB back on offense. Two good Assts
in OC Nolan Cromwell and DC Joe Kines. I am going to ride them the first 3 games of the season, all home games and 82,000 plus fans in the stands. They absolutely have to have all three games to have a shot at a bowl.
In my opinion they will improve and that they have their system in place.
They are not up to Big 12 South standards yet but they will assert themselves at home in these first three games. It is almost like the doctor ordered these games. Of course lines matter but I think T A & M will push their offense to the max in these affairs to get ready for their Big 12 shootouts.

 

[tommyjohn44]

2008 - 30:17 (56th)...11-2 lost Cotton Bowl
2007 - 28:05 (104th)...9-4 won Gator Bowl
2006 - 27:42 (112th)...8-5 won Insight Bowl
2005 - 29:00 (89th)...9-3 lost Cotton Bowl

So in 2008 Tech was essentially getting an extra possession over previous years. Here are their scoring offense/defense numbers:

2008 - 43.77 for 27.85 against (9.08 behind Big 12 leader)
2007 - 40.92 for 25.92 against (9.54 behind Big 12 leader)
2006 - 32.46 for 25.08 against (8.79 behind Big 12 leader)
2005 - 39.42 for 18.83 against (2.45 behind Big 12 leader)

The scoring defense numbers dont show a very strong correlation but I also didn't dive into measuring the overall strength of Big 12 offenses in each of those years. The consensus for Tech followers is that 2008 was the best defense (and definitely the deepest) that we've had since 2005.

In terms of talent, Tech has finally started making some improvements on the defensive side of the ball. In years past, they were starting a mix of 2 and 3 star guys. This past year alone, they signed 2 4* DT/DE recruits, 1 4* and 2 3* LB, and 5 3* DB's. This trend has continued as they have commits from 5 more defensive commits that are either 3 * or 4* depending on the recruiting service that you look at.

For whatever reason, it took Leach a long time to put any recruiting emphasis on the defensive side of the ball. I think that change happened once Ruffin McNeill took over the defense and was essentially given free reign on defensive recruiting. They stopped trying to go down the list of Texas prospects (where they are somewhere between 3rd and 6th fiddle in the pecking order) and started cherry picking kids from Tennessee, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and various other states. I think they can do this because Tech has a better image/reputation outside of Texas than it does in-state. It will be interesting to see where this thing goes in the next few years.

 

[tommyjohn44]

Another team down that way worth mentioning is Texas A & M. Mike Sherman's second year with 10 and QB back on offense. Two good Assts
in OC Nolan Cromwell and DC Joe Kines. I am going to ride them the first 3 games of the season, all home games and 82,000 plus fans in the stands. They absolutely have to have all three games to have a shot at a bowl.
In my opinion they will improve and that they have their system in place.
They are not up to Big 12 South standards yet but they will assert themselves at home in these first three games. It is almost like the doctor ordered these games. Of course lines matter but I think T A & M will push their offense to the max in these affairs to get ready for their Big 12 shootouts.

Feel free to dive right on that grenade. The problem I have with betting A&M is that their cult followers will load up at the betting window on games vs New Mexico, Utah State, and UAB. I see them going 2-1 in those games but 1-2 is a distinct possibility. They have very little defensive talent and thus give up too many easy scores (even to bad teams). Their best WR is their 3rd string QB. Fuller is a nice prospect but wouldn't start at the H or Z for Tech (neither would Tannehill for that matter). Johnson is a nice running QB but he's a very poor man's Reggie McNeal. Sherman is going to run a pro style offense in a conference loaded with small, fast defenses geared towards shutting down the spread offenses that dominate the Big 12. Lining up in the I-form is fine for OU when they've got one of the best o-lines in America but A&M is starting a mix of underachieving recruits with walk-ons that started last year.

If they had been 7-5 or 8-4 last year and were returning a bunch of guys...then you can make a case for them stepping it up. However, when you are returning a bunch of guys from a losing team...you've still got a losing team. It's kind like what's happened at Syracuse. They can return 8 or 9 guys 3 years in a row and still do no better than 2-10. Bad talent is just that. Look for A&M to finish last in the Big 12 South this year as Art Briles will have his way with the sheep humpers.

Also, when it comes to their crowd...the noise is nowhere near what it used to be. I went to games there from 99-04 when the noise was literally deafening and the stadium would start moving. The 05 game vs Texas when they kept it close in the rain with VY and company was fairly loud. I went back in 06 and 08 for Tech vs A&M and the noise level is maybe 70-80% of what it was even 5 years ago. They've been in such an arms race with UT to grow their school that they've started bringing in a bunch of kids from Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin that have no ties to the cult and thus aren't all aggie all the time. They call them "2%ers" but really its more like "25%ers" that could give a rats ass about the yell, traditions, humping, and following the commands of guys running around and waiving their arms in the air in white jump suits.

 

[GoSooners]

Russ...I was a little higher on Texas A&M earlier than I am now. They still have a bunch of holes to fill on defense. I don't think Sherman will be able to do it overnight. This team is defeinitely a 3 or 4 year project if Sherman is right man for the job. The one thing that is going their way over the other second tier teams in the South is Sherman has really been able to recruit well. The Aggies had the third best recruiting class this year behind OU and Texas. So their future could be looking good.

Tommyjohn...There is no doubt that TT had their best defense last season. It was really the first year that I can remember where they were able to go on the road and beat a couple decent teams. So defense had a big say in it. But I believe that losing their two excellent lockdown DB's on defense is going to hurt them this year when they travel to Houston early and also have to face some of those potent Big 12 pass offenses on the road.

 

[russ1945]

Tommyjohn44

I am on the gernade but the pin was never pulled. Texas A & M shifts to a 3 man front this year on defense. Their defense is questionable to say the least. A 4 LB system should speed them up and help to stop the big plays you referred to. They blew their opener against Arkansas St LY (Sherman's debut) and New Mexico has only 3 back on defense themselves, a new HC and new systems to deal with. Sets up well for A & M in that one. New Mexico avg home crowd is 17,756, Utah State 14,736, and UAB 19,062. Have to disagree, even 80,000 test dummys and a giant boom boxin would have an effect in these three matchups.
Texas A & M was -10 in TO margin LY and that should improve also. They do not stack up well in my own personal ratings but any improvement on defense and they can handle their first 3 opponents. I think my rating will ring true for the conference games where they will struggle against proven attacks. But they can handle these three opponents.

 

[FairWarning]

You do have a valid point. The running game is one of my top considerations that go into figuring these teams. For instance Texas Tech wins on average about 9 games SU every year, but never can seem to win over 6 games ATS. Mainly because they never have a clock chewing running game. In Notre Dame's case, they averaged only 113 ypg rushing last season. They'll have to improve on those numbers to get to 8 wins.. But I'm taking Phil Steel's word for it that this team will be improved in the rushing department with their best RB production than in the last 5 years. Plus a veteran offensive line of upperclassmen with 8 of their 10 deep back this year.

They do have a lot coming back. James Aldridge is moving from RB to FB, Armando Allen will be the other RB. I really need to see the OL start kicking ass, something I haven't seen yet under Weis. When you cannot pick up short-yardage vs the likes of SDSU and Syracuse, it sounds alarms. Weis seems to develop offensive talent for the NFL rather than coach college ball.

 

[GoSooners]

Here is a list of the teams who won 8 or more games ATS from the years 2006-2008. Notice how few repeaters there are from season to season. Also look at how strange a year that 2007 was as far as the number of good ATS teams. That was a very difficult season to cap. Season to season repeat teams are highlighted. As you can see, repeaters are few and far between. But there are a few teams who skipped a year on having good ATS seasons like Rutgers, Ball St, and Rice 2006 & 2008. I can see the same skipped years happening between the years 2007 and 2009 with teams like Kansas, Oregon and Air Force and possibly UCLA.

2006

Ball State 8
BYU 9
Central Michigan 9
East Carolina 10
Hawaii 8
Louisville 8
Nevada 10
Ohio State 9
Rice 9
Rutgers 8
San Jose State 8
South Carolina 8
Syracuse 8
Tennessee 8
Texas A&M 8
UCLA 8
ULM 8
Wisconsin 8

2007

Air Force 9
Cincinnati 9
UCONN 8
Florida 8
Kansas 10
Missouri 9
Oregon 8
UCLA 8


2008

Alabama 9
Ball State 8
Baylor 8
Bowling Green 8
Buffalo 8
CAL 8
Florida 10
Ga Tech 8
Ole Miss 8
NCST 9
Oklahoma 10
Okie St. 9
Oregon St. 8
Penn St. 9
Rice 8
Rutgers 9
TCU 9
Texas 9
Utah St. 8


I'm going to have my updated top 10 ATS list later tonight

 

[GoSooners]

These are my top 10 teams that I believe will win at least 8 games ATS this year. I've dropped a couple and added a couple teams since I first started this thread back in June. Like I said at the beginning of the thread, history tells me that the less preseason hype a team gets, the better their chances are at getting the covers. The only real exception I made here was Notre Dame. Mainly because of their very easy schedule combined with a more overpowering offense and only 4 true road games Three of which are against teams coming off a losing season.. You get at least 2 or 3 name teams each year that have a successful season against the point spread. I believe that ND is the best candidate for it this year.


1.LSU-Picked by Steele to finish 3rd in their division
2.Kansas-Picked to finish 4th in their division
3.Stanford-Picked to finish 5th in their conference
4.Air Force-Picked to finish 4th in their conference. Got to 7 wins ATS last season with just 8 returning starters! A very steady program and great running dogs team.
5.North Carolina-Picked to finish 4th in their divsion
6.Notre Dame-Rated 7 by Steele. Seven home games and one neutral site game vs WSU gives this expereienced team a great chance to reach the 8 wins or more mark ATS.
7.Georgia-Much like OSU, they got all of the preseason hype last year when they were rated number one going into the season. Not so much this year. Picked to finish 2nd in their division. But with a team who could be better than last season.
8.La Tech-Picked to finish 4th in their conference. This team will have two good lines on both sides of the ball, which is a big plus with me. Plus 16 starters back off of a 7-5 team who went 5-6 ATS last season. A natural improvement under a good coach will elevate this team to 8 wins or more ATS this season.
9.Michigan-This team almost fits the perfect formula for a good ATS team this year. Coming off a disappointing 3-9 season with a first year coach. I can tell you that in a majority of cases, when a longtime coach leaves on his own terms, if an outsider is hired to coach his team, in the majority of cases they won't be successful in their first season. Mainly because the team is switching to a whole new coaching staff and system. And it's very hard to make this kind of adjustment in one season. But I've found that the next year can be a difference like night and day. And although I don't think the improvement will be quite that drastic as in a bunch of wins, I do believe that the improvement will show up in the amount of covers this team has this season. I'm expecting somewhere around a 6-6 season. But the fact that they'll have 8 home games, and that they'll be the dog in at least 7 games gives a much more competetive Michigan team a better chance to cover these spreads. I look for at least 8 covers ATS for this team.
10.Nebraska-A few weeks ago this team wasn't even in my top 20. But since then several things have changed my mind about the Huskers. For one, I think they'll have by far the best defense in the North Division. And that this new set of WR's and QB coming in are going to be better than expected. I also found it very unusual that nobody in the Big 12 North had over 6 wins ATS last year. You just don't get two duplicate seasons like this from one division two years in a row. I think both Kansas and Nebraska will have 8 wins or over ATS this year. The Huskers will play 3 Sunbelt opponets for their ooc games. I believe this will be 3 covers for the Huksers. They go to Va Tech in between these games. And if VT is giving a defense like Nebraska 6 points or more in this game, I also think Nebraska can cover this one too. They get two weeks off and then face Mizzou in what I believe will be no more than a 3 point spread. I also believe Nebraska wins this game straight up. And then Texas Tech at home. Another game that should have a tight line. I can easily see Nebraska being no worse than 5-1 ATS in their first half of the season. So 8 games or more is very reachable for this team. Plus they'll be in the second year of Pelini's system. A system that also had to be completely changed from the Callahan era. So we won't see an adjustement period like we did in the Huskers first 6 games last season. And remember, this team still went 6-6 ATS despite the changes. So this could be a very good season for the Huskers. I expect at least 8 to 9 wins out of this team.

I dropped Ohio State and Boise St. out of my top 10. With Ohio State I could be wrong, but I don't like the hype this team is getting by the Big 10 sportswriters calling for OSU to win their conference and for Terrelle Pryor to be preseason player of the year. When I put them on my list I expected Penn State to get all of the preseason accolades that Phil Steele gave to them.. Especially since they get OSU at home this year. But it didn't happen. And I don't like the publicity that OSU is getting. I've learned very fast that when it comes to beating the spread, in most cases hype is not your friend. The only kinds of teams who can overcome the hype is the overpowering type of offenses like OU or Florida have. And although OSU will probably be a little better than expected on offense, they aren't in OU's or Florida's class.

For Boise, the reason that I'm dropping them is because the more I study the WAC, the more I think that they'll be a better overall conference this season than they were last. And although I think Boise can still get the straight up wins, I think they'll have a harder time covering against improved teams like Nevada, UNLV, La Tech, San Jose and Fresno.

 

[StopDropampLOL]

Couldnt agree with you more on #4 and $5. I think UNC will surprise some people this year.

 

[SoonerBS]

GS, I'm with you on Michigan, Georgia, Notre Dame and LSU. I'll have to look a little closer at La Tech and Air Force. Looked at Stanford this last week and think you could be right on that one, too, but a lot will depend on how new QB. Lucky, plays in his first season. All indications are that he will be an upgrade to Pritchard which would not be surprising as Pritchard was not the most consistent QB last season.

I'm not as convinced with Nebraska and Kansas. Nebraska is being hyped big in this preseason, yet this is still a defense that allowed nearly 30 ppg last year. They also have a new QB to break in. At first glance it looks like Kansas will have a proliferate offense this season, but their offensive line concerns me. Also, with Kansas you are talking about another defense that allowed nearly 30 points per game last year. I'm not saying you are wrong on these, I just think there may be better teams to play on.

I'll be looking at the non-bcs conferences closer this week and next. I have been a little intrigued about Fresno State who has been flying under the radar this preseason after being heavily touted last year. I think they could actually be better than they were last season and Boise State and Nevada are getting all the preseason hype in the WAC.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

LSU has never won more than 6 games ATS under Miles. Their problem is covering as a home favorite, where they are 8-16-1 ATS under Miles.

Kansas is a good selection, as they have been there, and done that in 2007. They are 20-6 as favorites in the past 4 years.

The Air Force is 17-9 ATS under Calhoun. Not only that, but they are one of the most predictable teams in the NCAA ATS. They also won 9 games ATS in 2007.

Stanford has a shot,though the last time they won 8 ATS was in 2000. Their 22-23-1 record over the past 4 years ATS does idicate that this team is pretty much of a break even team though.

Notre Dame and Michigan are out. Everyone expects better seasons out of both of these teams, which means that their alums, who are getting tired of losing money on these teams, now see an opportunity to cash in. So does Vegas. Notre Dame and Michigan both will be giving more as a favorite, and receiving less as a dog, than they should.

I like your Georgia play. The Dawgs are not expected to do much (by UGA standards) and Florida, 'Bama, LSU, and Mississipi will get most of the attention in Vegas. Last year, despite a 10-3 S/U record, UGA was only 4-8 ATS, and that included a bowl cover. This year, without Stafford and Moreno, UGA certainly can equal their 10-3 S/U record, and will not be giving away nearly as many points as they did last year. Last year, they were 1-7 ATS in conference, and 3-7 as favorites ATS.

 

[GoSooners]

LSU has never won more than 6 games ATS under Miles. Their problem is covering as a home favorite, where they are 8-16-1 ATS under Miles.



quote]I really haven't heard that much hype on LSU this year. But in the 4 years that Miles has been there, the expectations have always been higher that what I've seen this year with LSU being picked as low as third in their divsion. As far as Michigan, there are basically no high expectations whatsoever for this team that I have seen, except for maybe from their fans. The fact that I think Michigan will be more competetive in their games combined with the decent lines that we should be getting for a team that I believe will be imprved will get them to 8 wins ATS. About 2 or 3 big name teams make the 8 wins ATS mark every season. Last year it was Florida, OU and Texas. I think ND will get there this year. Although this is always a hyped team, whenever they have had a winning season of 9 games or more in the last 10 years, they have usually either come close to 8 wins ATS or made the 8 win mark. They won 8 games ATS under Bob Davie in 2000 from a 9 win season. And they won 9 games ATS from Willingham's 10 win team in 2002. They very nearly did it in 2005 under Weis when they won 9 games and 7 ATS. So this team is very capable of doing it when they've had the offense to get it done. And they should this season.

 

[GoSooners]

I'm not as convinced with Nebraska and Kansas. Nebraska is being hyped big in this preseason, yet this is still a defense that allowed nearly 30 ppg last year. They also have a new QB to break in. At first glance it looks like Kansas will have a proliferate offense this season, but their offensive line concerns me. Also, with Kansas you are talking about another defense that allowed nearly 30 points per game last year. I'm not saying you are wrong on these, I just think there may be better teams to play on.

I'll be looking at the non-bcs conferences closer this week and next. I have been a little intrigued about Fresno State who has been flying under the radar this preseason after being heavily touted last year. I think they could actually be better than they were last season and Boise State and Nevada are getting all the preseason hype in the WAC.

BS...I can almost guarantee that somebody from the Big 12 North will get to 8 wins ATS. Almost nobody is picking Kansas to win the North. And frankly I'm hearing very little about this team. Even in the blogs. And although they had a ton of defensive problems last season, I believe that Mangino IS taking steps to combat these spread offenses by going to the 4-2-5 defense. So they could be a little more successful on that side of the ball. At least from the very little I've read they think they can be more successful. The offense should again be potent. There wasn't anybody who could hold this team down last year except for Texas on that bad weather day in Lawrence. I think they'll simply outscore the weaklings, much like OSU did last season. And stay within the number against most of the big boys. As for Nebraska, they are going to get hyped for here on out. So this could be the last season where there is any real value with this team. Nebraska season win totals are still only around 8 or 8.5 last i looked. So even though many are picking them to win the North, most still don't look at the Huskers as any kind of major power. But I think they could have the beginnings of one. I think the thing that is throwing people off about their defense is the points they allowed last season. But keep in mind that they were -3 in turnover margin. And had a terrible first half of the season. The bottom line you need to look at is the Huskers only gave up an average of 364 yards per game. Almost right on par with Texas, and better than OU! In fact Nebraska had the second best defense in yards allowed in the Big 12 last season behind Texas. And with 7 starters back including Suh. And in the second year of Pelini's system, this team could be very tough on defense this year. This may sound crazy, but I think an ATS darkhorse in the North division could be Iowa State. Picked last by everybody. And will have a dangerous offense with a defensive ex-coordinator for a HC.. And they will be the dogs in at least 8 or 9 games this year. I agree with you about Fresno. This is another team that should be improved in the WAC. The only reason that I didn't put them in the 8 ATS wins is because of their problem the last few years under Pat Hill of not being able to finish off their seasons. If they get over that hump, they have a good chance to get there. The WAC in general will be much better this season IMO. They could be this years MWC.

 

[ajreeb]

Might be a dumb question, but just asking. As far as win/loss totals go, do bowl games count?
So basically is it a 12 or 13 game season that books grade?

 

[GoSooners]

Might be a dumb question, but just asking. As far as win/loss totals go, do bowl games count?
So basically is it a 12 or 13 game season that books grade?

The bowls don't count. And neither do the conference championship games. The win totals are strictly for scheduled regular season games.

 

[5-0SAT]

ATS is what everyone should be talking about on this forum, not the other bs frequently discussed. For figuring out who the hot ATS teams for '09 will be is paramount having a successful season. I'm glad you've built this thread GS.

 

[ajreeb]

The bowls don't count. And neither do the conference championship games. The win totals are strictly for scheduled regular season games.

thanks.
My local wasn't sure either.

 

[GoSooners]

Fellas...Something else that you may want to keep in mind when picking a possible good ATS candidate this season. Take a look at the list up above (Post #27) of teams who beat the spread in 2008. What do most all of these teams have in common?

They all have very good coaches. I'd say this is a good place to start.

 

[russ1945]

GS:

I just went over LY's ATS chart and I found 25 teams who won 8 or more ATS LY. Baylor with a SU record of 4-8 was the only team not to have 6 or more wins. Surprisingly, 16 out of 25 (64%) had SU records with at least 9 wins. So some of the more successful team SU LY were also successful ATS LY.

 

[GoSooners]

GS:

I just went over LY's ATS chart and I found 25 teams who won 8 or more ATS LY. Baylor with a SU record of 4-8 was the only team not to have 6 or more wins. Surprisingly, 16 out of 25 (64%) had SU records with at least 9 wins. So some of the more successful team SU LY were also successful ATS LY.

Russ...I might have miss counted on a couple of these teams. But I only come up with 19. By the way Utah State only went 3-9 SU last season but was 8-4 ATS. If you go by Marc Lawrence Utah State tied their line with Boise State and won 7 ATS. If you go by Phil Steel Power Sweep Utah State won ATS over Boise. The difference in that game could have been 35.5 to 35. And one publication counts it as a tie and one a win. Many of these publications differ from each other on the closing lines when they are this close. This is probably why I'm getting a different number than you on the amount of teams to cover.