My take on the Big Game

[Acebb]

Ranked teams who played unranked teams went 3-2 ATS (60%)

Russ, I tracked this in my bowl thread and I had:

Colorado State (+2½) vs. No. 23 Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl
Duke (+7) vs. No. 15 Arizona State in the Sun Bowl
Oklahoma (-3½) vs. No. 18 Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl
Notre Dame (+7) vs. No. 22 LSU in the Music City Bowl

Which one made the 5th game?

 

[Acebb]

^ Nevermind. It was Minnesota + 3 vs. #16 Missouri, I missed it.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Trying to compare what a handful of people (the Committee) think compared to the masses (the gamblers) is a wasted effort. Obviously Alabama was NOT the #1 team in the nation. Obviously the SEC was over-rated. The fact is that 4 out of 5 of their "Top 5" teams were favorites between 6 1/2 and 9 points and all lost. You can go on and on. For every system you have, I have one to disporve it. That is because there are hundreds of angles and trends. Examples: Alabama had not lost two straight Bowl Games since 1999. Alabama had lost two straight Sugar Bowl Games since 2008. The results? A split decision as 'Bama loses in the Sugar Bowl again, and loses their 2nd straight Bowl Game.

 

[russ1945]

Russ, I tracked this in my bowl thread and I had:

Colorado State (+2½) vs. No. 23 Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl
Duke (+7) vs. No. 15 Arizona State in the Sun Bowl
Oklahoma (-3½) vs. No. 18 Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl
Notre Dame (+7) vs. No. 22 LSU in the Music City Bowl

Which one made the 5th game?

I had Mizzou over Minnesota

 

[8ate]

BTW; Happy NY Russ; ty for all the posts and meaningfull insights; good luck; let's cash some tickets..!!

 

[russ1945]

BTW; Happy NY Russ; ty for all the posts and meaningfull insights; good luck; let's cash some tickets..!!

No, thank you. Feed back is more important than many people think. Of course you have to take the good with the bad lol. This season flew by it seems and I am already working on next season. I know, get a life. Well for me it is about having a second income etc. and every year (if not every week of each season) I learn something new. BOL

 

[MackDonald]

Good ideology Russ, we learn some thing new every year. When it comes to sports-betting we can never acquire enough info/"feed back";
The more, the better.

 

[JohnBlue123]

Thank Russ and continued success in 2015!

 

[russ1945]

Thank Russ and continued success in 2015!

Thanks man, back at ya. I would rather be good than lucky but that is a winning combination in the end. Hitting that 5 team ML bowl parlay on my site capped it off for me. I am really looking forward to tonight's game. Turns out they came up with a good one. I will be watching every play (just like Saban lol).

 

[russ1945]

For my stats I am not considering the NC game as a bowl game. That being said that makes the bowl games total at 38. I started analyzing the bowl games and this was rather surprising to say the least. Based on opening lines the teams that were favored by double digits ( Utah St, Marshall, and Stanford) all won ATS. 20 teams who were dogs according to the opening line won their bowl game outright and ATS. Had you just bet those 3 double digit favorites and took all the remaining dogs ATS you would have gone 23-15 ATS (61%). Good grief could it be that simple.

Going into this bowl season collegefootballpoll.com since 1993 favorites have won 53.5% of the time ATS. I just did a quick check and I came up with only 14 favorites (including the 3 DD favorites) winning ATS in the 2014-15 bowl games and 24 dogs winning ATS. That is an eye opener. Again that is based on opening lines. Games on or after Jan 1 the favorites won 5 and the dogs won 6 ATS (4 of those win were outright also).
So prior to Jan 1 dogs won ATS 18-9 over the favorites.