My soccer plays

[willer_rookie]

I am gonna add: AGF-Randers over 2,5 @2,20 for 1 unit.

AGF is a big club even though they have been fighting relegation the last couple of seasons. There is pressure on them, when they play at home, to play more offensive football. This is witnessed by their 10-17 goal-record at home compared to their 10-11 record away (with 1 more game played away).

Randers on the other hand are 12-12 away and 14-6 at home.

At plus juice the over is a value pick for me.

Picks for the week, danish superliga:

Wednesday:

Aab 0, -0,5 (2,00) 2 units (W).

Esbjerg +0,5 (2,05), 1 unit (W).

Thursday:
Viborg-Nordsjælland under 2,5 (2,10), 1 unit

Brøndby-FCMidtjylland -0,5 (2,075), 1 unit

AGF-Randers Over 2,5 @2,20, 1 unit.

Sunday:

Midtjylland -1 (win, 2,05). 4 units.
Midtjylland -1 (draw, 3,60). 1 units.

I might bye some of the Midtjylland play back as Lyngbys match today was postponed (they will be fresh sunday), while FCM misses key midfielder. It will depend on how FCM plays today against Brondby.

 

[Betting4Fun]

I was wondering where have you found line on Visitirs -0.5?
I see them as +0.5 or PK.also why do you think they can draw or win today?i see they rank higher than Brondby but then Borndby has good record at home 5W3D2L 18-8,while FC Midtjylland record away far of being impressive 1W3D5L and 5-13.I see Brondby has not won any of the recent encounters,with that away record don't you think maybe today will be the day for Brondby?anything i miss?

I can't find value in the visitors AH when Brondby with better record -0.5 offered @ 2.08.

Please enlighten me

 

[Betting4Fun]

I was refering to this bet of yours if not clear,sorry missed it at the beginning.

Brøndby-FCMidtjylland -0,5 (2,075), 1 unit

Thanks.

I was wondering where have you found line on Visitirs -0.5?
I see them as +0.5 or PK.also why do you think they can draw or win today?i see they rank higher than Brondby but then Borndby has good record at home 5W3D2L 18-8,while FC Midtjylland record away far of being impressive 1W3D5L and 5-13.I see Brondby has not won any of the recent encounters,with that away record don't you think maybe today will be the day for Brondby?anything i miss?

I can't find value in the visitors AH when Brondby with better record -0.5 offered @ 2.08.

Please enlighten me

 

[willer_rookie]

4fun, sorry if it wasnt clear - my play is Brondby -0,5. Brondby is a sleeping giant slowly getting back to their usual dominant ways.

Over/unders look like crap today, hope you didnt take those...

 

[willer_rookie]

I am gonna add: AGF-Randers over 2,5 @2,20 for 1 unit.

AGF is a big club even though they have been fighting relegation the last couple of seasons. There is pressure on them, when they play at home, to play more offensive football. This is witnessed by their 10-17 goal-record at home compared to their 10-11 record away (with 1 more game played away).

Randers on the other hand are 12-12 away and 14-6 at home.

At plus juice the over is a value pick for me.

Picks for the week, danish superliga:

Wednesday:

Aab 0, -0,5 (2,00) 2 units (Won).

Esbjerg +0,5 (2,05), 1 unit (Won).

Thursday:
Viborg-Nordsjælland under 2,5 (2,10), 1 unit (Loss)

Brøndby-FCMidtjylland -0,5 (2,075), 1 unit

AGF-Randers Over 2,5 @2,20, 1 unit. (Loss)

Sunday:

Midtjylland -1 (win, 2,05). 4 units.
Midtjylland -1 (draw, 3,60). 1 units.

I might bye some of the Midtjylland play back as Lyngbys match today was postponed (they will be fresh sunday), while FCM misses key midfielder. It will depend on how FCM plays today against Brondby.

Two overs going down the drain in style. Needs Brondby to save the day. Good start for them is nice...

 

[willer_rookie]

Brondby 2-0 FCM after 13 minutes .

 

[Betting4Fun]

4fun, sorry if it wasnt clear - my play is Brondby -0,5. Brondby is a sleeping giant slowly getting back to their usual dominant ways.

Over/unders look like crap today, hope you didnt take those...

Just Brondby seemed to me as a good play

 

[willer_rookie]

adding:

Parlay:
Valencia-Barcelona over 2 goals
FCK ML over Horsens.

Total odds: 1,85. 3 units.

 

[willer_rookie]

Just Brondby seemed to me as a good play

Certainly. All losing plays are bad :nopityA:

 

[willer_rookie]

Ytd: 26-21 (+8,4)

 

[willer_rookie]

I dont know when the books realise that portsmouth are for real?

Adding Pompey +0,5 @1,95 (2 units)

 

[willer_rookie]

adding:

Manu -1 (corners) @1,85 (1,5 units)

 

[willer_rookie]

thumping FCK today:

Over 2,0 (Spurs)+FCK ML @1,75 (2 units)

 

[willer_rookie]

FCK-HORSENS DRAW @9.0 (0,5 units).

Got FCK in several parlays (not just the ones posted here) so i need to play it a lil safe here.

 

[Betting4Fun]

FCK-HORSENS DRAW @9.0 (0,5 units).

Got FCK in several parlays (not just the ones posted here) so i need to play it a lil safe here.

Hey willer when you seek insurance,use BF live play and lay the favorite at that time and that will get you X2 which is even better than just X.For instance now backing FCK @ 1.10,laying 1.11,so you could have gotten basically odds of 9.01 for X2 which is a little even better than just for X(draw)

 

[willer_rookie]

Hey willer when you seek insurance,use BF live play and lay the favorite at that time and that will get you X2 which is even better than just X.For instance now backing FCK @ 1.10,laying 1.11,so you could have gotten basically odds of 9.01 for X2 which is a little even better than just for X(draw)

Thanks man, thats an excellent point, in another post I pointed out that i am stupid at getting out of bets (like the sampdoria bet you had today, could never have done that) as well as stupid at covering my bets - like we have just seen. You know, I have been looking through that betfair site and really, I aint no mathematician so i dont really get the whole laying stuf. I mean when you lay at 1.11 how does that become 9.01? I know I come of as a betting illeterate...but oh well, thats what i am...

 

[Betting4Fun]

Thanks man, thats an excellent point, in another post I pointed out that i am stupid at getting out of bets (like the sampdoria bet you had today, could never have done that) as well as stupid at covering my bets - like we have just seen. You know, I have been looking through that betfair site and really, I aint no mathematician so i dont really get the whole laying stuf. I mean when you lay at 1.11 how does that become 9.01? I know I come of as a betting illeterate...but oh well, thats what i am...

No worries..here is how it works.

Say prior to kick off you placed 100dkk on FCK @ 1.25,so you BACKED FCK risking 100dkk to win 25dkk.

As the game progress and going in your way you decide you want to lock profit regardless of final score.

During 2nd half odds in real time on FCK dropped to 1.10 and Laying is @ 1.11.

You want to insure your initial ,you lay 100 dkk @ 1.11,that means you have liability of 11dkk to win 100dkk in case the game ends as draw or away win.in other words laying @ 1.11 is just as backing @ odds of 100/divided by 11,so would be equal to backing with 11dkk X2 to win 100dkk.

If you want to Profit on top of insurance,you would have to chose bigger amount than 100dkk and lower than your 100+25 profit on home win.So it will be for instance 110 dkk @ 1.11(laying).in that scenario,your liability is 110x0.11=12.1dkk.

If FCK Wins your net profit will be the 25 (1.25) - 12.1 liability for X2= 12.9dkk and if it ends as draw or away win ,you will receive 110dkk - 100 loss for home win,leaves you with 10dkks profit .

In other words you can lock profit and win regardless of final outcome,in that example it will be either 10dkk for X2 or 12.9dkk for 1.

Hope helps you understand the process little better,if have any questions,just ask

 

[willer_rookie]

thanks bff, that helps alot.

Updating:

YDT: 28-23 (+8,9).

Pending Plays:

Sunday:

Midtjylland -1 (win, 2,05). 4 units.
Midtjylland -1 (draw, 3,60). 1 unit.

Manchester U -1 (Corners) 1,85 (1,5 units).

 

[willer_rookie]

thanks bff, that helps alot.

Updating:

YDT: 28-23 (+8,9).

Pending Plays:

Sunday:

Midtjylland -1 (win, 2,05). 4 units.
Midtjylland -1 (draw, 3,60). 1 unit.

Manchester U -1 (Corners) 1,85 (1,5 units).

Adding:

Randers-Esbjerg: Esbjerg 0,+0,5 - 2 units. @1,80.

Over 2,5 and over 2,5 in Aab-Viborg and FCM and Lyngby - 1 unit @2,40 (not a high price, but i like it enough).

OB-AGF: AGF +1,+1,5 @1,825. 1,5 units. Thought Graulund would play but just found out, that he is out. Not good.

Three teamer: Aab+OB+FCM @2,5 for 1 unit. So we need OB to win by just one, which is very plausible.

I need to stop now.

:smoker2:

 

[Betting4Fun]

Three teamer: Aab+OB+FCM @2,5 for 1 unit

You know i was looking at it before deciding to play aeb alone today.
Somehow it seems "too easy",one of these games probably will end with
a surprising result,not sure which,thats why decided to stick only to Aeb
as it seems that they will be highly motivated to gain the 1st place back from FCK today.

Hope i am wrong about an upset and would hate seeing it at the end in Aeb game..LOL,
Wishing you BOL with all your plays today.