By those numbers, I'm inclined to believe that Nebraska has the better O and D. But I'm not that naive. For one, I know that Nebraska's LB crew is injured and/or not playing very well and Michigan St can personnel you to death. NU's D also starts the game too soft to be considered elite. They do tend to buckle down though. MSU has a nice collection of skill, the WR's even get into the run game....quite a bit, in fact. Of course, it's always going to go back to, can the D's stop the run game. I feel pretty good saying Nebraska has the best starting 4 DL in the conference, one of the better secondaries...but again, the second level is the weak-point. I still give MSU the nod as a better defense. Yes, they have the turnovers, plus I like the aggressive style that can produce those TFL's. But the numbers suggest they are susceptible to big plays, and Nebraska is the right team to beat the quarters defense sending the deep post routes. There will be some hay to make there in playaction, if they can get the run game going. As I've stated before, the 3 year history suggests that Nebraska will be just fine running the ball from an offense that is taylor made to break down this defense. 3 times MSU brought defenses that gave elite numbers in the run game. In reverse chronology (2013-2011), they MSU D gave up 3.28, 2.8, 3.85 per tote. Nebraska averaged 5.7, 7.8 and 3.3 yards (ironically, the lowest number of 3.3 was where Nebraska won by 21 and they happened to almost gain 200 yards...just another reminder that stats aren't always black and white even as I break it down as such). Now MSU is giving up 5 per run against Nebraska's best running game in years. They may have a big body coming back, which can only help. Calhoun, their touted DE isn't having quite as good a season as expected. MSU will have their chances to run too. Couple of things they can do, is spread it out and make those LB's close space in the run game. Go big, and get WR's in jet action and make the LB's hesitate, use the playaction flat game. THat's where I can see them really doing their damage. Who has the better O? It's close. Both have there own angles. Nebraska gets the QB-run game going and Cook has shown an ability to put the ball in some tight corners. To me, this number is just about right. I keep thinking it's a one possession game.
