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my projections, based on some large scale theatre projections and following the fri/sat/sun progression of the polar express(these are extremely conservative given that p.e opened on a wed. and was a non-summer release. a more liberal comparison would be over the hedge.) fri-7.0, sat-10.2sun-7.0. total 24.2
 

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deadlinehollywooddaily has a very early report up on the front page...no estimates or anything but she says Monster House "may" have beaten Lady in the water on friday night...that would be great b/c MH should do well on sunday...as soon as i get some #'s for friday ill post...heres her take on DHD...

I'm hearing tonight that Sony's Monster House may scare up more box office bucks Friday than Warner's Lady in the Water. That would be very unexpected. M. Night Shyamalan's movie was anticipated to be No. 2 behind, of course, Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest. Then again, I'd been hearing all summer that Lady in the Water, which Warner's marketed as a horror movie when it's not, would drown during its opening weekend. And the reviews for Monster House were much, much better. In any case, it's very close. Stay tuned...
 

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these type of movies traditionally have large increases on saturday, and mild increases on sunday. any friday number starting at 6.5 and we are good.
 

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ya i just got them...lady is 100% an UNDER (ill lose that small bet)

EX GF is 100% UNDER it BOMBED with only 2.75million...thats a nice winner
Clerks did 3.92million....thats gonna be close...and it could come down to what the actual # is....

MH did 7.5 hopefully we get a nice boost the rest of the weekend and take that one down....even if clerks loses it would still be a nice weekend for me going 2-1 on the bigger plays including the top play on MH....
 

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Polar express went fri-6.677, sat-10.249, sun-6.884. Over the hedge went fri-10.769, sat-15.651, sun-12.037. if mh follows a similar pogression its well over.
 

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the guys on hsx are projecting it out and they are saying it could be a short...but i forgot thats based on its closing stock price which called for like a 26-27million opening....we should be safe at our #'s

gun to head right now....i say i go 2-1 (and i lose the LITW which i expected) ...i think clerks might stay under, b/c its probably heavily frontloaded...that was hurt b/c its limited amount of screens...
 

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may be a 500k short based on their numbers, but they very well could get bit in the ass.
 

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boxofficeprophets take on fridays numbers...funny how we can pretty much get a wrap on the whole weekend after 1days worth of #'s....no matter what its shaping up for another winning week...not as great as the past few but a winning week nonetheless...congrats again guys...

By David Mumpower
July 22, 2006


Before the Pirates of the Caribbean sequel, Cars, Ice Age: The Meltdown, Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion and Mission: Impossible III were the only releases this year to finish in first place in consecutive weeks. After two weeks of not just winning but utterly dominating the competition, Dead Man's Chest has a chance this weekend to do something truly unusual in modern box office: demonstrate staying power at number one.

There hadn't been a production that finished at the top of the box office charts for three straight weeks since Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire last November/December. With four new challengers to the throne, including M. Night Shyamalan's latest outing, Lady in the Water, Johnny Depp's crew was in for a battle. Are they up to the challenge? As my old friend Jerry Barnes used to say, ubetcha.

Monster House

The animated thematic offspring of 1985's Steven Spielberg classic, The Goonies, gets off to a solid start. Monster House's opening total of $7.7 million represents a 22% bump from The Polar Express's first Friday receipts of $6.3 million. Of course, we are unlikely to see the same gaudy internal multiplier of 3.7 that Robert Zemeckis' last animated project had. The key is that kids were not on vacation for that title's Friday. Ergo, it spiked 63% on Saturday to $10.3 million. Monster House will be happy with a much more modest bump on its second day followed by strong holdover on Sunday thanks to the post-church matinees across the country. An internal multiplier of 3.26 would bring an opening weekend tally of $25.1 million as well as the highest placement out of the openers. This feels like a win for Amblin Entertainment and Sony Pictures.

Lady in the Water

The buzz around this production has been so negative you would swear it was Carrot Top's comeback project. Recently deposed Disney studio boss Nina Jacobsen cordially invited Shyamalan to burn the script and forget it ever existed. Feelings wounded, the Hitchcock wannabe took his ball and went to Warner Bros. Two days ago, Jacobsen was fired from her job and even allowing for that, her career is in better shape than Shyamalan's at the moment. Lady in the Water, a film allegedly tracking in the mid to upper 20s, managed only $6.9 million in its first frame. Given the fact that this is only good for second place among the openers and taking into account a budget of $75 million for the project, this is troublesome on oh so many levels. The critically reviled film is looking at an opening weekend of $18.8 million and a freakish amount of schadenfreude, even by Hollywood standards.

Clerks II

Here is a nice little success story for the fledgling The Weinstein Company. Clerks II earned $4.1 million in its first day. While this might not sound like a lot, please factor in that this tally represents almost a million more than the original earned during its domestic run. Given a modest budget of $5 million (albeit one that is exponentially larger than the $27,600 spent on the original), Clerks II has a great chance to surpass its negative cost while still in theaters. Sure, it will be heavily front-loaded this weekend and should see a three-day total of $10.2 million. Even so, diehard fans will take advantage of director Kevin Smith's clever idea of adding a podcast for the movie. This should boost repeat business for the worthy sequel even more than it would have naturally had due to Smith's loyal fan-base (of which I am a proudly card-carrying member).

My Super Ex-Girlfriend

There's no good news to be found here. This is simply a case of history repeating itself. Seven years ago almost to the day, a $68 million budgeted title named Mystery Men was forced to flee its scheduled release date due to the presence of a film with a Clerks-ian budget of $35,000. That production, The Blair Witch Project, scorched the box office and became arguably the most profitable non-pornographic movie ever relative to budget. Mystery Men got its ass kicked, winding up with a pathetic final tally of $29.7 million. And even *that* number probably looks good to the producers of My Super Ex-Girlfriend. The Luke Wilson/Uma Thurman comedy managed an atrocious $2.8 million first day and is probably looking at $8.1 million for the weekend. There is no point in sugar-coating it. This is a disastrous project for Fox.
 

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monster house 9.5 on saturday. weekend estimates are at 23 which i think is way to low.
 

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i agree and just said the same thing across the street...i think it does 24 25million...

im really not worried about it...
 

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sbd numbers appeared to be inflated. bom and edi both say 23. sunday could be under estimated given the heatwave. interesting situation for wsex, as their line closed at 23
 

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ReelSource's weekend take differs from the rest, including a .2 bump for MH.

<table style="border: thin outset rgb(51, 0, 153); width: 200px; font-size: smaller;" class="grey" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="grey" style="vertical-align: middle;"><td class="blue" align="right">1</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">Pirates: Dead Man's Chest</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">$35.7</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;" align="right">$322.1</td> </tr> <tr class="grey" style="vertical-align: middle;"> <td class="blue" align="right">2</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">Monster House</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">$23.2</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;" align="right">$23.2</td> </tr> <tr class="grey" style="vertical-align: middle;"> <td class="blue" align="right">3</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">Lady in the Water</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">$17.6</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;" align="right">$17.6</td> </tr> <tr class="grey" style="vertical-align: middle;"> <td class="blue" align="right">4</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">You, Me, and Dupree</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">$12.7</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;" align="right">$45.4</td> </tr> <tr class="grey" style="vertical-align: middle;"> <td class="blue" align="right">5</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">Little Man</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">$11.2</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;" align="right">$40.6</td> </tr> <tr class="grey" style="vertical-align: middle;"> <td class="blue" align="right">6</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">Clerks II</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">$9.5</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;" align="right">$9.5</td> </tr> <tr class="grey" style="vertical-align: middle;"> <td class="blue" align="right">7</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">My Super Ex-Girlfriend</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">$8.3</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;" align="right">$8.3</td> </tr> <tr class="grey" style="vertical-align: middle;"> <td class="blue" align="right">8</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">The Devil Wears Prada</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">$7.4</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;" align="right">$97.6</td> </tr> <tr class="grey" style="vertical-align: middle;"> <td class="blue" align="right">9</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">Superman Returns</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">$7.3</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;" align="right">$178.3</td> </tr> <tr class="grey" style="vertical-align: middle;"> <td class="blue" align="right">10</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">Cars</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;">$5.3</td> <td class="smaller" style="vertical-align: middle;" align="right">$229.6</td></tr></tbody></table>
http://reelsource.com
 

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Actuals according to ERC Box Office and Nielson EDI -

<table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr align="center" valign="bottom"><td colspan="2" width="58"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="58"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" align="center">[SIZE=-2]Ranking[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr align="center"> <td width="29">[SIZE=-2]This
Wk[/SIZE]</td> <td width="29">[SIZE=-2]Last
Wk[/SIZE]</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Title (Distributor - Rating)[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Wk[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Theaters
(Chng)[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Wknd
Gross[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Total
Gross[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Wknd
Gross
Change[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <!-- begin data --> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]1[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]1[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Buena Vista - Rated PG-13[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]3[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]4133[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$35,215,201[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$321,899,233[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]-44%[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#dddeee"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]2[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]new[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Monster House
Sony - Rated PG[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]1[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]3553[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$22,217,226[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$22,217,226[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]new[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]3[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]new[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Lady In The Water
Warner Bros. - Rated PG-13[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]1[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]3235[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$18,044,396[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$18,044,396[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]new[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#dddeee"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]4[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]3
red_down_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]You, Me And Dupree
Universal - Rated PG-13[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]2[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]3137
up_blue_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$12,767,590[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$45,299,080[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]-41%[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]5[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]2
red_down_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Little Man
Sony - Rated PG-13[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]2[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]2533[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$11,025,108[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$40,636,230[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]-49%[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#dddeee"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]6[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]new[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Clerks Ii
MGM - Rated R[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]1[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]2150[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$10,061,132[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$10,061,132[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]new[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]7[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]new[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]My Super Ex-Girlfriend
Fox - Rated PG-13[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]1[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]2702[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$8,603,460[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$8,603,460[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]new[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#dddeee"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]8[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]4
red_down_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Superman Returns
Warner Bros. - Rated PG-13[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]4[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]2826
red_down_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$7,375,213[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$178,342,711[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]-40%[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]9[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]5
red_down_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]The Devil Wears Prada
Fox - Rated PG-13[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]4[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]2248
red_down_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$7,361,991[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$97,508,460[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]-29%[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#dddeee"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]10[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]6
red_down_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Cars
Buena Vista - Rated G[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]7[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]2410
red_down_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$4,947,198[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$229,485,636[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]-37%[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]11[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]7
red_down_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]Click
Sony - Rated PG-13[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]5[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]2312
red_down_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$4,035,847[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$128,224,427[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]-44%[/SIZE]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#dddeee"> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]12[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]12[/SIZE]</td> <td>[SIZE=-2]An Inconvenient Truth
Paramount Vantage - Rated PG[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]9[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]440
red_down_arrow.gif
[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$1,000,372[/SIZE]</td> <td align="right">[SIZE=-2]$18,790,273[/SIZE]</td> <td align="center">[SIZE=-2]-14%[/SIZE]</td></tr></tbody></table>


Looks like MH slides in just underneath Pinny's 22.5.

http://www.ercboxoffice.com/erc/reports/weekendgrosses.html
http://www.entdata.com/charts/index.html
 

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its a loser...unfu-king believable....im waiting to see mojo's daily actuals to see just how bad sunday was...i really cant believe this slide under 22.5 after seeing friday and saturdays estimates...just keep going lower and lower...saw 22.65 on showbizdata and though that was the actual and it wasnt....and even if that wasnt the actual i still had another 150k on my side...

huge swing in my weekend for me...really thought i was putting some money in my pockets this weekend...
 

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something is really off with this one. perplexed as to why the intial reporting of numbers was so f**ked up. sbd had 7.7 for friday and 9.5 for sat. nielson then came out with a 6.9 projection for sunday. pinnacle still hasnt graded the wagers, and they always do that on sunday. very hard for me to believe 22.2 will stand. all the trades were firm in their published articles with 23. just cant see an 800k error. interesting that reel source has 23.2.
 

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