WOW GS... I had no idea your site had it that together. The only other example where anyone here had it dialed in that well or better was a very long time ago when the shrink lost just once throughout an entire bowl card. I've hit it to the tune of 75% several times but those years (as with most years) I played only about 6 to 8 sides which is my normal output. But I still approach every bowl card feeling less confident than regularly scheduled games. Nevertheless, it feels great when you see that your thinking matches with reality and the unexpected is kept at bay.
I think often times it is nearly impossible to take all of the information out there and add it all up to arrive at what one thinks is something that represents value (or lack of it.) How much value is considered to be something worth checking out? And in the final analysis, aren't we really talking about a difference of opinion? Could it be the size of the gap between public opinions and the number on a side or total the line-makers have posted?
To me, for the sake of making sense out of the word "value" one must first understand what factors have contributed most to drive the number to where it now stands as posted. How much of that number is true and how much is just public perception. I think the difference between those 2 factors represents true value. And most importantly, does the line truly represent the most likely outcome? Wherever it fails to meet that test, that's where the best value can be found.
Probably the best way to unearth the lines with most value is to find games where the most recent trends in team play outpace the line as posted. A good example of this was back in the beginning when Stanford under their new HC Jim Harbaugh was improving from one week to the next by radical leaps and bounds. It took nearly an entire season for the posted lines in Stanford's games to catch up to the impact its new head coach was having in the outcome of the final scores. Another sure sign of good value was when Oregon would often come out guns ablazing in the 1H as typically the Ducks had the team total in the game covered in the first 2 quarters then sat their starters down in the 3Q. These are both examples of how recent trends can affect the outcome before the line-makers can adjust. I'm sure there are plenty of other situations that can add s lot of value to a side or total.
It was Unreal. Pez furnished lots of totals that were Good to the Over players all year long.
The Running Dogs were the Best by a mile. Some of those dogs carried Huge m/l prices such as the National Champs just to name one.
Looking forward to your Very informative site again this year, as well as those unders....
Here's some overrated and underrated stuff from ESPN. Warning: Ed Cunningham is a kook of the highest degree and like Skip Bayless is almost never right about anything.
http://fanbuzz.com/story/espn-analyst-has-harsh-words-for-the-current-heisman-favorite/
http://fanbuzz.com/story/espn-analyst-has-harsh-words-for-the-current-heisman-favorite/
The most overvalued team in the CFB market is the Ohio State Buckeyes. They're win total is set at 11.5 this season, and almost everyone has them penciled in as a playoff team. The Bucks lost at home to VA Tech last season and were involved in some close scrapes along the way to their National Championship.
Only one way to go when you're at the top Urban....enjoy the view while it lasts.
Only one way to go when you're at the top Urban....enjoy the view while it lasts.
