More info on the new political headache

[THE SHRINK]

Mattdapimp,

Here are my thoughts and rather than debating the hypocricy of it all, I'd like to focus in on what I think this "REALLY" means...

First of all, the likelihood that this bill will pass is enormous. Given that a Senate panel has just approved it, and The HOUSE approved a companion bill last month, all that needs to be done is to iron out the "differences' between the two bills and then reduce it to only one. After approval, all that's left is for the President to sign it, and Bush has said publically that he would.

I also believe that the most serious ramifications will be felt by Caribbean bookmakers, largely because that's REALLY who is being targeted the most.

This final bill will make it much more difficult for Americans to transfer money back and forth offshore. But, since the life line for many sports books is their post up accounts, I suspect that they have been looking into every imaginable loophole, in order to fascilitate in the transferring of money back and forth from the gambler to the bookmaker.

Here's a quote you can take to the bank...

THE MORE DIFFICULT IT BECOMES FOR GAMBLERS TO SEND AND RECEIVE MONEY, THE LESS LIKELY IT IS THAT THEY WILL DO SO.

I don't believe that gamblers will fear being prosecuted under this new law, rather, they will fear not being able to collect when they win.

If I were an offshore operator, I'd be very concerned because they are now being attacked legally as well as financially.

ENFORCING this new law will be a joke, but the politicians don't seem to mind. What they want and will get is more of a "feel good" bill...

Therefore, unless these offshore post up sports books can somehow implement CONVENIENT and TRUSTWORTHY alternatives for gamblers to use when sending and receiving money, the majorty of players will dwindle. A return to the local bookmaker then becomes a much more viable and safer option rather than having to deal with the headaches that the bill will undoubtedly create.

CREDIT SHOPS theoretically should not be too badly affected, but a rather small percentage of offshore gamblers play in this fashion.

Undoubtedly, there will be more CREDIT players than ever before, so if I owned a post up sports book offshore, I'd start preparing to either sell or become a credit shop to some degree.

Legally, I believe that the number of gamblers who get punished by this new law will coincide with the number of pedestrians who get tickets for jaywalking...

Hope this helps some, as I don't claim to be an expert on this issue either and most of what I wrote is speculation...

THE SHRINK

 

[RPM]

shrink,

the way i read this latest bill, it came across as only having penalties for services that transfer the money.

i didnt see anything about penalties for being the guy sending or recieving.

did i miss something?

 

[THE SHRINK]

RPM,

There are TWO bills that have been passed, one of which does indeed fine gamblers for betting offshore. As I mentioned in my long winded thread above, they will have to reduce the two bills into only one. I suspect that the final bill would try and deter gamblers from participating in something that our government says is "illegal."

Ken

 

[ericdixon]

Ridiculous, I can't believe I even live to read this crap. We live in such a hypocritical country, stock market legal and sports betting illegal; absurd! Well, on the bright side this may inable me to open my own shop again!!! I do like that side better anyway!

 

[Amitightornot]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by THE SHRINK:
I suspect that the final bill would try and deter gamblers from participating in something that our government says is "illegal."
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I wonder how many western countries feel the same way!

 

[Mattdapimp]

Shrink-

Your opinion matters to me and I am very thankful that you did reply. Bottom line, it might pass, then it might be a pain in the butt to do what we all love.

Let me ask you one more question. If this was going to pass, when would it become law and when would it be in effect? Would this all start in the middle of this football season? Or is this something that could not take effect until after the next election? I never paid attention to politics, forgive me, but PLEASE, answer me if you have some time, thank you.

 

[ppeter]

The senate is on break until the end of August.

After they get back, the matter will be scheduled to go from committee to the Senate as a whole. That will probably take several weeks.

After voting (which will be a rubber stamp, just like the House) the bill will be forwarded to a special committee who will meet with representatives from the House who will attempt to hammer out a "compromise" between the House and Senate versions or else uniformly adapt one or the other.

If they can't decide before Congress adjorns for the year, the matter will have to be taken up once congress reconvenes next year. If they can reconcile the two bills, the reconciled bill will go the both the House and Senate for voting.

If the reconciled bill passes, it gets fowarded to the President for signing or vetoing, usually within a few weeks. The President has I think 10 days to either sign the bill (making it into an Act) or else veto it and send it back to Congress.

Bottom line: there is a 50% chance the Act goes into effect by late this football season. Even if it does, it will take months or years before the Act is fully understood and implemented by DOJ.

Bottom bottom line: NOTHING WILL CHANGE FOR THIS FOOTBALL SEASON. UNLESS PLAYERS GET "CHICKEN LITTLE" ABOUT THE WHOLE DAMN THING AND MAKE RUNS ON THE BOOKS EVERY TIME A HEADLINE POPS UP ABOUT THE ACT GOING FORWARD, WHICH WILL MEAN THEY WILL CREATE A "SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY" AND ECONOMICALLY DOOM THE BOOKS.

There is no doubt we will be in a "brave new world" by Football season 2004-05. Hopefully, the books will have figured something out by then.

[This message was edited by ppeter on August 03, 2003 at 05:08 AM.]

 

[Dante]

PPETER very good post....you are being nominated for POST of the week



great thread all and great comments. I feel this will pass thru the senate. BUT I also feel that the books have been working on the loophole part and will come up with some way around this. It will work out but I think nothing "drastic" happens until NEXT football season. before it takes effect . If in fact it does.


Also any poster that has ideas on wha loopholes there could be Please share all your info with everyone.

 

[Amitightornot]

As far as arresting book owners and the 5 year sentence, would they have anything to worry aboyt if they give up their US citizenship and continue to operate the same exact way?

[This message was edited by Am i tight or not? on August 03, 2003 at 10:30 AM.]

 

[oldmantime]

Dante,
I think and firmly believe that the books are too competitive to come together and find a simple solution for the smaller players. I have no idea of course, but it was suggested that someone from WWTS book caused the problem for Carib owner(s), which we read about yesterday. (True or not true and as stupid as the act of hving cash, etc in the US; jealosy between books can not be ignored). Unless they do come together for their common good, I think the majority of little players, myself being one is finished.) You know, farmers could RULE the US and be wealthy. But the biggest reason this will never happen is that each and evry one of them is concerned with their own particular situation and they will NEVER unite as so many other groups have. But they deal with a perishable product. I mean look closely at Carib. They were expanding. Who else is even in Belize? But they, (bookmakers) like farmers to a similiar degree compete with each other. For their common good, they must come together to find a solution.

 

[Dante]

oldman...I am small also like you and feel this pain with this net gaming bill just like you do ....I will miss no wagering if they block IP's or make it a law etc. There are alot of small and Medium gamblers that play with the books now, but if they make it illegal and have no other way around it. I agree these type of recreational gamblers might be done.

But I am not thinking this year is affected at all

 

[Mattdapimp]

PPeter, great post man. What makes that a great post is that is what we all want to hear, and I think you are right. I think many people feel you are right. I also see a surge in online gambling the next year, I think people will want to do it as much as possible because they feel that they might not be able to do it someday.

Remember, this thing has to pass first. Nothing like this has ever happened. What we are fear is losing a 6 billion dollar a year industry over a bunch of lowlife politicians, for no reason at all. Nothing of these proportions have ever happened, so I don't see it happening now.

 

[ppeter]

thanks Dante and Matt

I am going to enjoy this football season like no other!

 

[ChuckSims]

I don't understand why the "smaller" players are even concerned in the slightest. Why? Unless you are in debt and fuel your gambling with a cc. Even those people can get around that by getting a cash advance. The DOJ has told Congress they are not interested in the "$5 bettor". And that means most of the posters here. Listen to the sensible posters like ppeter, you guys have nothing to worry about.

 

[Mattdapimp]

I don't know about people who are worried about getting in trouble Chuck, I think the smaller bettors will find it nearly impossible to bet. I know the congress is not worried about them but the core of this stupid bill targets them. The ones that will be able to bet are the ones who bet large, because they will have to do it illegally by WU and will not be able to send a western union a day like some do now to fund their accounts, they will only be able to send one big one because there will be limits per month set by the sportsbooks to avoid getting popped.

You can track the bill here:

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d108:s.00627:

 

[Mattdapimp]

another intresting link!

http://www.videopokerjunkie.com/antigamblingalarm.htm

 

[WildBill]

Well I went on a little trip alone this weekend to just get away and be alone and part of the time I came to some clearer thoughts, the gaming bill being one of the issues I thought about. Tonight I talked things over with a couple people and we all came to a "simplified" issue sheet if you will:

1. In order to get these things to pass Congress is endlesslesly narrowing its focus. When talk started there was going to be blacklisting by ISPs, banks investigating these transfers and reporting to the Justice Department, and of course a bunch of stiff fines and jail time. What is left? Not much. That illustrates clearly that even though we might think this issue is a slam dunk for a legislator, it really isn't. There are lots of people fighting it, some that you don't even think about. The more people that fight it, the more likely bad, ie unconstitutional or unenforceable amendments get made.

2. Chuck Sims made a great point. The small players are going to be the most affected. Off the top there are a lot of people that are not wanting to be lawbreakers, but enough sites and of course the books/casinos are tellig them that this actually isn't illegal. If Congress passes something that becomes common knowledge to be illegal, it will indeed chase a lot of people away. After all even if you don't get sent to jail, there are some things you just can't do if you are a public figure. Just ask Mike Price if spending a lot of money in a strip club is legal. A lot of people will just decide its not worth the risk and back out. While they might not be the biggest money players, they are important because sports betting survives only if there are a lot of squares out there. How many squares that are scared off will be a crucial issue. Not to mention the small square today easily can graduate into being the mid-sized regular in time, and this person will be cut off before getting to that point. So a lot of focus must be paid to these people, both the books who have to soothe their fears and convince them there are still ways to get in and that the law isn't written to address them. And us experienced and/or smart bettors need to continue to bring these people in, we in a way have to become sales people when we never really have had to do it before. You think you have seen tight numbers before, wait to you see what it becomes like if half the new squares and their fresh money get cut off from the system.

3. Don't buy into anyone's doom and gloom. Reading this over and over will just lead you to this simple conclusion. The law is vague and its enforcement and who is responsible for it are not defined well at all. What this means is basically it becomes a tool of selective enforcement, namely they will go after people they don't like or can't convict on something else, the old Al Capone strategy. As I said here a couple times, realize that Nevada has a fairly unambiguous law against betting with anyone that isn't a Nevada Gaming License holder. There are penalties for the bettors, the rule is very clear. To my knowledge the law has been invoked once in its about 5 year existence against guess who? Bill Walters of course, thanks to our AG office's endless battle against him and his organization. Its quite clear that Nevada people, due to their high propensity to gamble and accustomization to betting legally here, are one of the highest, if not the highest, percentage of citizens who gamble offshore and one time a clear law on the books has been invoked. Here you have a federal law with no apparent beneficiary and likely to have ambiguous language and you are going to tell me its going to be enforced? Come on, that is ridiculous. I would be much more afraid of other state laws because the federal government doesn't have gambling interests to protect, state goverments most definitely do. No state has a more marked interest in keeping out competing gaming that offshore is than Nevada, the industry makes the state run with its hundreds of thousands of jobs and its 6.25% (soon 6.75%) tax on winnings. And yet its never enforced. That should tell you all something.

4. People are really getting into the big brother stuff too much. Its not like the US can just send an agent with a letter signed by George Bush and get bank records and money from a foreign country. In a bigger picture sense they can at times get some cooperation if they can prove someone is a big-time criminal with a lot of ill-gotten gains in his account. An offshore gambler who likely has less money than he put into his account over time? Nope, I don't think too many governments will give that up and the US government isn't stupid, they only get so many free passes, they won't waste them on this.

So all those that are living in fear, give it up. This is exactly what Ken said, a feel good measure because today's legislator feels he "has to do something". Nothing more than that, there is truly little money involved here. The dumbest thing is hearing all these people talk about how its a $7 billion industry or whatever. Yeah right. There might be $7 billion in the system, but that surely isn't what people are going to lose over the course of a year. Those inflated numbers that come from Wall Street and think tanks are driving a lot of this mess and maybe if they just pass some gutless bill everyone will just go away. Thing is if they don't pass it this year we will assuredly go through this next year until as Kyl might say "this scourge is addressed and solved!!"

 

[DavidMatthews]

Someone had mentioned to me about Party Poker. I was told that they are bringing in $80,000 A DAY! 80 grand every freakin' DAY!

Maybe my facts are wrong, but I can believe it though.

Anyway, that is only one little poker site and there are many other sites... poker sites, casino sites, sports betting sites...

There is a lot of f-ing money for US business to make. For the US government to tax and make.

Money to boost our economy. Money to help states build better schools, roads, and opther public facilities. Money for police departments, fire departments, hell... money for f-ing politicians salaries!

If the US allowed these companies in this country, we would corner the market. Non-US places would either relocate here, or go out of business. People would feel very safe with their money at US places.

Legalizing betting and Internet betting in this country would be a windfall for the state and federal coffers.... and guess what? It would be much easier to find so-called "terrorist" links or money laundering links (which are hugely exagerrated by the rhetoric the politicians s[ew) if the companies were located here within our borders.

This country needs to get its head out of its ass.

David