Moneyline Underdog System

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Until now, your average play has been (+1.56). With those lines, you only need a 39% win rate to break even, so anything in the 40%+ range guarantees you a profit.
 

SSI

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kirk, i know...... was hoping for closer to 50%......... that could make me rich....
 

SSI

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adjust padres line for monday.

padres (+1.23) wells was a scratch..
 

Atlanta's Finest Handicapper
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SSI,
I like your style.
With my busy schedule I really dont have time to make a system, cap games, and keep up with everything.

But I am a degenerate and I need something to either not lose all my money or make a couple units.
Will you keep this thread going on a while?
I am going to set aside a part of my bankroll just for your plays.

How much of a percent of my bankroll would you suggest I risk per play?


Thanks
 

SSI

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i suggest 2% per play for the long haul....

this is a very small part of my betting..... i use 2% for what ive allocated for this experiment..

ill keep it going for a while...... once i got the formula worked out, its takes a short time each day to plug the numbers in......

NHL starts next week.....

ideally id like to profit 10 units a month off this..... that would be an outstanding 120 units in a year..... i plan on gradually increasing the wager amounts, as allocated money grows..

example would be, start with $1000..... play $20 per game, if you get to $1200 then increase to $24 per game risked.... and bump the bets for every 20% account grows..
 

SSI

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monday: 2-1 (+2.13 units)

Overall ML Dog System: 31-36 (+5.40 units) 12 day total.
 

head turd in the outhouse
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good work. still here, still watching. i am actually really looking forward to how this does in the NHL. quick question if you don't mind in regards to the possibility that a computer program could make the plays at on a predetermined team at a set price. are you aware if this software exist?
 

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SSI said:
kirk, i know...... was hoping for closer to 50%......... that could make me rich....
yeah i know you know, i'm just thinking aloud, throwing numbers around...
 

SSI

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teazeman, im sure that a program could do this....... however, im not looking at a set price, only if its (+1.00) or higher on the dog side....

i am also looking forward to the NHL..... i started posting these at probably a bad time (im referring to MLB winding down)..... there are many teams that have packed it in........ the system has held its own thru this and with only 6 days left in season, i dont think it will wind up too bad.....

actually im quite pleased with results, i wish it was a couple games better but dont we always wish that...... if only the titans could have beaten dolphins or chiefs had beaten denver (lost in OT)..... we would have made the months goal (+10 units) already....

also want to point out, that i dont always have the time to line shop and wait for best price later in day...... if this is successful, i may wind up letting someone do this for me..... maybe split an account with someone that has access to best lines and has time to line shop... this could really make a difference to bottom line.....

ill talk more about that later, lets just get thru the first 100 plays...

someone mentioned the NHL.... im very much looking forward to how we do.. i see similiar results to the MLB in looking at some back results.....

will post tuesdays plays later..
 

SSI

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ML Dog System: 31-36 (+5.40 units)

Plays for tuesday sept 26: day 13

68. White Sox (+1.32)
69. Reds (+1.62)
70. Mets (+1.38)
71. Padres (+1.58)
72. Giants (+1.20)

the results are not too bad so far, pretty much right in line with expecations and looking at back results...
 

SSI

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thanks man,,,,,,,,,, here is a side note to anyone following.... i am turning in a play for wed on the Mets (+1.04).... i fear they may move to a favorite and i want this play turned in..... this is a play for wednesday.. we are already on mets today (tues)... this will be noted as play #73..
 

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SSI...

Just wanted to drop in and let you know that I am following your thread everyday as well as tracking all your plays here in a paper account.

I don't know if this means anything to you, but I just thought you deserved to know of another person paying close attention to this! I have had a hunch about ml dogs for awhile now, but developing a mechanical system is a bit of a unknown science to me. I actually found this thread through a search for an underdog "system"...ha....

If this turns out sustainable, you have a loyal follower here. Thanks for sharing and best of luck....
 

SSI

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thx for the comments, always good to know that someone is listening..

your also correct, there is something about ML Dogs... I spent a good part of the summer researching this..... Now simply posting and playing, what i felt to be a true assumption about them...

pretty good day yesterday (tues): 3-2 (+2.40 units)

ML DOG SYSTEM (FUND): 34-38 (+7.80 units)(thru 13 days)

Plays for wednesday sept 27: (day 14)

73. Mets (+1.04) gave you this one last night, in above post.
74. Reds (+1.60)
75. Brewers (+1.03)
76. WSOX (+1.12)
77. Oak (+1.78) we have a winsdor/meche matchup here.

this will complete the first 2 weeks with they system... nothing surprising, everything pretty much as i had anticipated.. in a few more days, we will be transistioning from MLB to NHL regular season..
 

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SSI,

If you don't mind me asking, what, if any, are the variances that come with hockey and basketball, based on your back testing? Baseball "seems" like the most stable with the length of season, but that could really just be my amateur perception.

Do you anticipate any differences with hockey and basketball?

and oh ya, nice session yesteday!
 

SSI

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i do think baseball is probably the most "stable" of the sports, however the payoff is the lowest... i think this is probably the worse time of the season to be playing MLB and the system is holding its own and showing a profit (good sign).....

NFL plays will probably decrease as the season moves along...

as for the NHL, i suspect it will run alot like baseball but with slightly fewer plays..

from what i except with the NBA, it will look more like the NFL........

Playing ML Dogs is about finding Value... Im definately going to treat this endeavor, more along the lines of investing. I dont think of it as a "get rich quick" system but i dont think the downside is that great either... Im hoping this system moves in a SLOW, METHODICAL, UPWARD motion..
 

SSI

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couple side notes for sundays NFL games..... i am on Vikings (+1.03) and Ravens (+1.26)....... i anticiapte moves against me, so im playing these now..

also sundays NFL action will end my sept plays for the ML (i know its oct 1)...... i should be close to 100 plays by then,,,,,, if i continue posting these next week, it will be in a thread for october......
 

SSI

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wednesdays plays: 2-3 (-0.10 units)

ML Dog system: 36-41 (+7.70 units)

plays for thursday (sept 28): day 15

78. Cinn (+1.19)
79. Oak (+1.17)
 

SSI

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just want to put up an early play for friday, sept 29... Cinn (+1.02). this will be recorded as play #80.....

will post thursdays results and fridays entire card tomorrow (friday).... anyone still keeping up?

if anyone is playing these, you may want to grab cincy tonight, they could become the favorite by tomorrow..
 

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