NESS INSIDER IS ON mILW
OTHER PLAYS..METS, ARIZ AND COMP IS LAD
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Larry Ness' 15* Pitching Mismatch GOW (66-18 TY)
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks at St Louis Cardinals Jul 2 2007 8:10PM
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
Reason: Arizona has not played well in St Louis since entering the league, going just 11-20 (worst mark in any NL city). However, the Cards have not been a good home team this year (minus-$766) and have been especially poor in Busch during night games, going 10-14 (minus-$815) while averaging only 3.6 RPG. Meanwhile, the D'backs have played well on the road in night games, going 14-8 (plus-$755), averaging 4.9 RPG. The pitching matchup also greatly favors Arizona with Brandon Webb going up against Braden Looper. Webb (8-5, 3.05 ERA) is coming off one of his better starts of the season, beating the Dodgers 2-0 last Wednesday. He improved to 5-2 in his last seven starts and the D'backs are 12-5 this season with him on the mound. That includes a 7-2 mark in his nine road starts, with Webb posting a 2.53 ERA. Looper is coming off the DL to pitch this series opener, after missing the last two weeks with a right shoulder strain. The right-hander Az is plus-$625 TY vs righties) is a starting pitcher this season for the first time in his 10-year career but after an excellent start in that role, "he's fallen off a cliff!" Over his first eight starts, he posted a 2.29 ERA but in his last six, he's allowed 30 ERs in 32 innings (8.44 ERA), including getting knocked around in his last two starts before being placed on the DL, giving up 13 runs in 10.1 innings! Pitching Mismatch of the Week 15* Az D'backs.
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (15-6 since 5/21)
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Jul 2 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Reason: Pittsburgh has won 11 of its last 15 home games against Milwaukee, including seven of 10 last year. However, this is a much different Milwaukee team in '07 and the Pirates have been outscored 38-19 in losing five of six games against the Brewers this season (all in Milwaukee). While the Brewers didn't exactly look like the best team in the NL in early June, they closed the month as one of the hottest teams in baseball. After losing their first game of July, the Brewers look to get back on track when they visit the Pirates for the opener of a four-game series tonight.Milwaukee won just four of its first 10 games in June, a stretch that was capped by Justin Verlander's no-hitter against them on June 12. However, the Brewers batted .304 and posted a 3.68 team ERA to win 13 of their next 16 games. The Brewers' hot streak hit a snag at Wrigley Field over the weekend, where Milwaukee dropped two of three games for its first series loss since losing two of three at Texas June 8-10. The Brewers opened the new month with a 5-1 defeat on Sunday, managing only five hits while recording their lowest run total since the no-hitter. However, their 22-12 record against opponents within their division remains the best in the league. The Pirates have won six of their last nine at home but are 12-15 (minus-$560) at home in night games this year (averaging 3.96 RPG). John Van Benschoten (0-2, 4.30), who is still looking for his first major league win since 2004, gets the start for Pittsburgh. He spent all of the 2005 and 2006 seasons in the minors, and lost his first two starts after he was called up from Triple-A Indianapolis on June 15, before getting a no-decision in his last outing. Jeff Suppan (8-7, 4.88 ERA) looks to continue Milwaukee's dominance of Pittsburgh TY, hoping he has recaptured the form that made him one of the Brewers' most successful starters earlier this season. He had five quality starts in his 1st six games but had only one in 10 starts since April before his outing against Houston on Wednesday. Suppan held the Astros to three runs in six innings while striking out a season-high seven in the Brewers' 6-3, 11-inning win. Suppan has had little trouble with the Pirates in the past, going 9-3 with a 3.90 ERA in 16 career starts against them, including a 2-0 record against them this season. Las Vegas Insider on the Mil Brewers.