NFL Sharp Action
8:15 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Both of these NFC North rivals are looking to bounce back from Week 1 losses. The Lions (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) fell to the 49ers 41-33 in last week's opener, although Detroit managed to cover as 9.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Packers (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) got embarrassed by the Saints 38-3, losing straight up as 3.5-point neutral site favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as an 11-point home favorite. The public says Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are a great team and must get back on track by rolling the lowly Lions. This lopsided action has pushed Green Bay up from -11 to -11.5. Some shops even reached 12 before some Lions buyback dropped the number back down.
The Lions match several profitable betting systems, most notably a contrarian road divisional dog in a primetime game. Double-digit road divisional dogs are 109-83 (57%) over the past decade. Primetime dogs are 4-1 ATS this season. Monday Night Football double-digit dogs are 26-10 ATS (72.2%) over the past decade. Double-digit dogs are 50-38 ATS (56.8%) in the month of September over the past decade. Also, when two winless teams face off, the dog has been a smart bet (35-25 ATS, 58.3% the past decade).
We've also seen some respected money hit this total. It opened at 49.5 and the public is rushing to the window to take the over. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 49.5 to 48.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the under, which is also super contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game. Historically, divisional unders that fall at least a point are roughly 54% the past decade. Another reason to look at the under: the weather. The forecast calls for 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau Field. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is roughly 55% the past decade. Adrian Hill, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (20-13, 60.6%).
8:15 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Both of these NFC North rivals are looking to bounce back from Week 1 losses. The Lions (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) fell to the 49ers 41-33 in last week's opener, although Detroit managed to cover as 9.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Packers (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) got embarrassed by the Saints 38-3, losing straight up as 3.5-point neutral site favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as an 11-point home favorite. The public says Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are a great team and must get back on track by rolling the lowly Lions. This lopsided action has pushed Green Bay up from -11 to -11.5. Some shops even reached 12 before some Lions buyback dropped the number back down.
The Lions match several profitable betting systems, most notably a contrarian road divisional dog in a primetime game. Double-digit road divisional dogs are 109-83 (57%) over the past decade. Primetime dogs are 4-1 ATS this season. Monday Night Football double-digit dogs are 26-10 ATS (72.2%) over the past decade. Double-digit dogs are 50-38 ATS (56.8%) in the month of September over the past decade. Also, when two winless teams face off, the dog has been a smart bet (35-25 ATS, 58.3% the past decade).
We've also seen some respected money hit this total. It opened at 49.5 and the public is rushing to the window to take the over. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 49.5 to 48.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the under, which is also super contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game. Historically, divisional unders that fall at least a point are roughly 54% the past decade. Another reason to look at the under: the weather. The forecast calls for 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau Field. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is roughly 55% the past decade. Adrian Hill, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (20-13, 60.6%).
