Monday Service Play Thread 04/03/2023

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Let's go Brandon!
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Cubs vs. Reds O 8.5
Brewers vs Mets O 8
Phillies vs. Yankees U 8
SDSU vs. Uconn U 133.5
 

Let's go Brandon!
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Larry Hartstein

CBB | SAN DIEGO ST. @ UCONN | 04/03 | 9:20 PM EDT
UCONN -7.5
ANALYSIS: Early money poured in on the Huskies for good reason. The nation's most complete team, UConn has won its five NCAA Tournament games by an average of 20.6 points and have beaten every non-conference foe by double digits. With their elite defense and size, the Aztecs will keep it interesting for a while. But ultimately the Huskies have more offensive weapons -- and nearly as strong a defense -- and should pull away. San Diego State used 12 offensive rebounds to key its dramatic comeback win over Florida Atlantic. The Aztecs will be hard-pressed to repeat that versus a UConn team that ranks 20th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage.

MLB | TORONTO @ KANSAS CITY | 04/03 | 7:40 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY +115
ANALYSIS: The Royals' offense looks pathetic after producing four runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of Minnesota. But against Jose Berrios, K.C. has a chance to get going. Berrios gave up 29 homers in 172 innings last season while posting a 5.23 ERA. His velocity is down a bit, and so are his strikeouts. Berrios also struggled with control last season, walking 45, and so far one thing K.C. has done decently is draw walks. The Royals counter with Brady Singer, who emerged last season with a 3.23 ERA and followed that up with a terrific spring.

MLB | CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 04/03 | 6:40 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS -120
ANALYSIS: Cubs starter Drew Smyly is 5-0 with a 2.92 ERA and one save in nine career appearances against the Reds. That gives Chicago the clear starting pitching edge as Cincy goes with Connor Overton. He started just four games last season while dealing with back injuries, and he got shellacked this spring. Look for Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ to supply the offense as the Cubs improve to 2-2.

MLB | ATLANTA @ ST. LOUIS | 04/03 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS +105
ANALYSIS: Charlie Morton is 39 and declining, and this is an extremely tough matchup. St. Louis scored 22 runs in three games versus quality Blue Jays' pitching; on Sunday, the Redbirds had 14 batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. Nolan Gorman has changed his approach, to great effect, and players like Alec Burleson are coming through, too. Converted reliever Jake Woodford, starting for St. Louis due to Adam Wainwright's groin injury, posted a 2.23 ERA last season and seized the rotation spot with a strong spring. Back the home dog.

MLB | MINNESOTA @ MIAMI | 04/03 | 6:40 PM EDT
MINNESOTA -125
ANALYSIS: Tyler Mahle's velocity was back to normal at the end of the spring, and he's set up for a good year with Minnesota. The Twins are off to a 3-0 start and have a more potent lineup than Miami, which has mustered eight runs during its 1-3 start. Minnesota also has the bullpen edge. Lay the reasonable price.

CBB | SAN DIEGO ST. @ UCONN | 04/03 | 9:20 PM EDT
UCONN -7.5
ANALYSIS: Early money poured in on the Huskies for good reason. The nation's most complete team, UConn has won its five NCAA Tournament games by an average of 20.6 points and has beaten every non-conference foe by double digits. With their elite defense and size, the Aztecs will keep it interesting for a while. But ultimately the Huskies have more offensive weapons -- and nearly as strong a defense -- and should pull away. San Diego State used 12 offensive rebounds to key its dramatic comeback win over Florida Atlantic. The Aztecs will be hard-pressed to repeat that versus a UConn team that ranks 20th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage.
 

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Allie O'Neill

MLB | ATLANTA @ ST. LOUIS | 04/03 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS +105
ANALYSIS: The Cardinals went 2-1 against the Jays, but they still put up nine runs in that loss. Atlanta's Charlie Morton was not very good on the road last season, where he went 3-5 and posted a 5.72 ERA. One of those Morton starts was in St. Louis, and the Cards scored four runs off him in five innings. Jake Woodford was primarily in the bullpen last season, but he still posted a 0.86 ERA in 21 IP at home. I like the home underdog tonight.

NHL | NASHVILLE @ DALLAS | 04/03 | 8:30 PM EDT
OVER 6 -102
ANALYSIS: Scott Wedgewood hasn't played since February 18th, and he's earned a 3.66 GAA in his six home games thus far. Although, I still expect some goals on Juuse Saros, who has a 3.78 GAA in his three starts against the Stars this season. At least six total goals have been scored in 13 of the last 17 Stars games. Take the over.
 

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