You're confident about this game.
Do you have a system for your picks? Do you use statistical analysis and/or spreadsheets?
Research mostly?
Just curious.
Not only do I NOT use a system, I can't stand handicappers that do. Those cappers are playing patterns and percentages, I don't do either.
I have over 50 factors that I look for in a game, Team Matchup, Public Percentage, Line Movement, Money being bet in the game, Media Hype, Weather, Injuries, Coaching matchups, position by position matchup, team motivation, off-field issues, as well as many more things.
After I've amassed all the information I play the game out in my head, after that I pick a final score. If my final score is near the total the game is unplayable, if the game is a BIG difference than I take it.
For example, I only take an underdog in a spread ever if I think that the game is a field goal game and they have a shot at winning. I won't take an Underdog St. Louis +13, just because I feel the spread is to high. I need to be able to envision the Underdog winning the game.