Good luck ?
Some info for MNF if you are still on the fence
As you would expect, our model is leaning heavily toward the undefeated Eagles, expecting them to win outright 80.0% of the time.
Things are tighter when it comes to the spread. The Commanders -- who are 4-5 overall and 3-2 in their last five games -- are 11.5-point underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook. Our model gives Washington the edge against the spread (ATS), putting the likelihood they’ll cover at 55.7%. The price for Washington to cover is set at -114 (53.3% implied probability). Taking the Commanders to cover is a one-star bet (one-unit recommendation).
You know what’s better than one-star wagers? Three stars -- and that’s the rating we have for the over at this 42.5-point total line. The price for the over is -115 (53.5% implied), and our algorithm has the ovr hitting 65.3% of the time -- which is the best value among the standard bets.
Philadelphia leads the league in first-half scoring (20.1 points) while the Commanders are next to last in first-half scoring (6.0 points). The first-half spread is set at Philly -6.5 (-120 odds), and that is a nice value given the disparity in first-half scoring between these two squads in 2022.
– Since the start of the 2021 season, the Eagles have had five games in which the point total was 42.5 or lower, and the over has hit in each one.
– On the spread, 63% of the spread money and 58% of the tickets are backing Philly.
As you would expect, our model is leaning heavily toward the undefeated Eagles, expecting them to win outright 80.0% of the time.
Things are tighter when it comes to the spread. The Commanders -- who are 4-5 overall and 3-2 in their last five games -- are 11.5-point underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook. Our model gives Washington the edge against the spread (ATS), putting the likelihood they’ll cover at 55.7%. The price for Washington to cover is set at -114 (53.3% implied probability). Taking the Commanders to cover is a one-star bet (one-unit recommendation).
You know what’s better than one-star wagers? Three stars -- and that’s the rating we have for the over at this 42.5-point total line. The price for the over is -115 (53.5% implied), and our algorithm has the ovr hitting 65.3% of the time -- which is the best value among the standard bets.
Player and Team Prop Value Bets
Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert's receiving yardage prop is 45.5 yards (-110), and our player projections have his receiving production at 65.7 yards. He has eclipsed this prop line four out of his last six games against Washington, so the over looks like the way to go.Philadelphia leads the league in first-half scoring (20.1 points) while the Commanders are next to last in first-half scoring (6.0 points). The first-half spread is set at Philly -6.5 (-120 odds), and that is a nice value given the disparity in first-half scoring between these two squads in 2022.
Final Notes
-- The Eagles have covered in each of their four home games this season.– Since the start of the 2021 season, the Eagles have had five games in which the point total was 42.5 or lower, and the over has hit in each one.
– On the spread, 63% of the spread money and 58% of the tickets are backing Philly.
Washington (Redskins) have played the better schedule
Philla does have some experience at long favorite runs.....Phil off 7 or more favorites are 2/6/1 SU and 1/8 ATS.......home they stand 0/4 SU and 0/4 ATS......these games include their last game, a ATS loss at Hou......Their last home game vs Wash was 27/17.....don't think they go over that here but it could be closer
Philla does have some experience at long favorite runs.....Phil off 7 or more favorites are 2/6/1 SU and 1/8 ATS.......home they stand 0/4 SU and 0/4 ATS......these games include their last game, a ATS loss at Hou......Their last home game vs Wash was 27/17.....don't think they go over that here but it could be closer
Fly Eagles Fly 14-7
Skins looking good
They gave them 7 points
They gave them 7 points
Go
31pts first half already
Riverboat going for points
Yep
That's how you coach
I'm putting the Eagles on upset alert
Wentz ain't getting his job back
