Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Monday 7:10 PM
(951) PITTSBURGH PIRATES at (952) ATLANTA BRAVES
Take: (951) PITTSBURGH PIRATES -142
Regular readers of this blog are already aware I rarely get involved with big chalk in baseball. I’m big on obtaining value and there’s generally none to be had playing large favorites. But this is the final week of the regular season, and what works for the first 155 or so games of the schedule can pretty much be tossed out as far as the final seven or so are concerned.
This game is a good example. Turn back the clock just a week or two, and there’s no chance I’d even consider the Bucs at this price, especially on the road. But on Monday, September 22, the Pirates are now the only side I can consider tonight.
This is simply on the teams and their current situations and form. Pittsburgh is in great shape to at least make it to the one-game playoff, probably against the Giants. The Braves are toast. They’ve hit the skids in a huge way, and following next Sunday, it’s vacation time for that team.
One can make a case that the mental vacation is already underway for the Braves. They’re looking as though the season has already concluded, and in fact, I would probably argue that under the present conditions, they actually now have what amounts to a home field disadvantage.
The Pirates could, I suppose, let down just a bit after virtually assuring themselves of at least a game #163. But I see this as a team with major momentum right now, and I don’t envision them suddenly going into relax mode. I think they want to stay hot and hopefully carry the surge right into October.
Liriano vs. Harang is pretty close on paper. The Pirates lefty has been very good lately, although he’s always capable of losing the strike zone and getting hit. No knocks here on Harang, who has had a much better than could have been expected season for Atlanta, and he’s still pitching good ball right now.
But this is all about the way these teams are playing now and what’s at stake for the two clubs. That’s all Pirates, which makes the price on this game justifiable if not ideal. I’ll side with the scorching hot Pirates to knock down another win tonight.
Bonus Play Monday 7:10 PM
(951) PITTSBURGH PIRATES at (952) ATLANTA BRAVES
Take: (951) PITTSBURGH PIRATES -142
Regular readers of this blog are already aware I rarely get involved with big chalk in baseball. I’m big on obtaining value and there’s generally none to be had playing large favorites. But this is the final week of the regular season, and what works for the first 155 or so games of the schedule can pretty much be tossed out as far as the final seven or so are concerned.
This game is a good example. Turn back the clock just a week or two, and there’s no chance I’d even consider the Bucs at this price, especially on the road. But on Monday, September 22, the Pirates are now the only side I can consider tonight.
This is simply on the teams and their current situations and form. Pittsburgh is in great shape to at least make it to the one-game playoff, probably against the Giants. The Braves are toast. They’ve hit the skids in a huge way, and following next Sunday, it’s vacation time for that team.
One can make a case that the mental vacation is already underway for the Braves. They’re looking as though the season has already concluded, and in fact, I would probably argue that under the present conditions, they actually now have what amounts to a home field disadvantage.
The Pirates could, I suppose, let down just a bit after virtually assuring themselves of at least a game #163. But I see this as a team with major momentum right now, and I don’t envision them suddenly going into relax mode. I think they want to stay hot and hopefully carry the surge right into October.
Liriano vs. Harang is pretty close on paper. The Pirates lefty has been very good lately, although he’s always capable of losing the strike zone and getting hit. No knocks here on Harang, who has had a much better than could have been expected season for Atlanta, and he’s still pitching good ball right now.
But this is all about the way these teams are playing now and what’s at stake for the two clubs. That’s all Pirates, which makes the price on this game justifiable if not ideal. I’ll side with the scorching hot Pirates to knock down another win tonight.
Jim Feist
Comp MLB Pick for Monday, September 22, 2014: 10:05 PM ET
MLB (969) LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS (970) OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Take: (970) OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for MOnday, Sept 22, 2014 is in the AL contest between the LA Angels and Oakland A's. The Angels have wrapped-up the AL West and now have the luxury of resting some players with the expanded rosters. No rest for the A's though, who are fighting for one of the two wild card spots. Right now Oakland and Kansas City are tied for the top spots in the Wild Card race, but Seattle is just 1 1/2 games back and Cleveland 3 1/2 games back. So tonight's contest is big for Oakland. The Angels will send CJ Wilson to the hill with a 13-9 record and 4.42 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Wilson has been one of the recipients of the Angels red-hot play since the All Star break. The Angels have won Wilson's last three starts and six of his last eight. One issue of concern though are walks. Wilson has allowed at least three walks in six of his last seven outings - hence the higher than normal WHIP. The A's will send Jeff Samardzija to the hill. Even though Samardzija is just 6-12 this year, he has an outstanding ERA of 2.98 and equally impressive WHIP of 1.07. What Samardzija needs is some run support. Samardzija has allowed zero earned runs over his last 15 innings and the A's have lost both of those starts, getting just two runs of support in the process. In fact, Samardzija has seen the A's go just 1-6 in his last seven starts. A few good trends line up here for the A's. First, the Angels are 0-5 in Wilson's last five starts when installed as the underdog and 2-9 in Wilson's last 11 overall away starts. The Angels also haven't done well when visiting the bay area, going just 1-5 in their last six games up north. Much bigger stakes here for the A's who will finally get some runs for their beleaguered starter. Your Bonus Play is on the A's.
Comp MLB Pick for Monday, September 22, 2014: 10:05 PM ET
MLB (969) LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS (970) OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Take: (970) OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Reason: Your Bonus Play for MOnday, Sept 22, 2014 is in the AL contest between the LA Angels and Oakland A's. The Angels have wrapped-up the AL West and now have the luxury of resting some players with the expanded rosters. No rest for the A's though, who are fighting for one of the two wild card spots. Right now Oakland and Kansas City are tied for the top spots in the Wild Card race, but Seattle is just 1 1/2 games back and Cleveland 3 1/2 games back. So tonight's contest is big for Oakland. The Angels will send CJ Wilson to the hill with a 13-9 record and 4.42 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Wilson has been one of the recipients of the Angels red-hot play since the All Star break. The Angels have won Wilson's last three starts and six of his last eight. One issue of concern though are walks. Wilson has allowed at least three walks in six of his last seven outings - hence the higher than normal WHIP. The A's will send Jeff Samardzija to the hill. Even though Samardzija is just 6-12 this year, he has an outstanding ERA of 2.98 and equally impressive WHIP of 1.07. What Samardzija needs is some run support. Samardzija has allowed zero earned runs over his last 15 innings and the A's have lost both of those starts, getting just two runs of support in the process. In fact, Samardzija has seen the A's go just 1-6 in his last seven starts. A few good trends line up here for the A's. First, the Angels are 0-5 in Wilson's last five starts when installed as the underdog and 2-9 in Wilson's last 11 overall away starts. The Angels also haven't done well when visiting the bay area, going just 1-5 in their last six games up north. Much bigger stakes here for the A's who will finally get some runs for their beleaguered starter. Your Bonus Play is on the A's.
Art Aronson
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
1* Bonus Play San Diego Padres
The Padres have been very good at home lately and I think they ultimately earn a victory in this matchup with the Rockies. Colorado sends Tyler Matzek (6-10, 4.19 ERA) to the hill, who would surrender 11 hits but managed to hold the Dodgers to two runs over 5 1/3 innings in a win in his last outing. Note though that the lefty is 1-2 with a 4.29 ERA lifetime against the Padres and is just 2-6 with a pedestrian 4.70 ERA on the road this season. San Diego counters with left-hander Eric Stults (7-17, 4.59 ERA) who is 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA in 68 innings pitched versus the Rockies lifetime; note that the Friars are 8-3 in games started by Stults against the Rockies. Both these teams come in hot but I think the Padres have the advantage; yes the Rockies have been hot in winning six in a row at home but remember, they lost six straight away from friendly confines before the skein. San Diego has won six of seven so far on this home stand after a three game sweep of the San Francisco Giants and is a strong 46-32 at Petco Park this season (it doesn’t come as any surprise to learn that the Rockies are one of the worst road teams in all of baseball with a 20-55). Additionally, the Padres are 5-2 when hosting the Rockies the last three seasons. I think the home side is worth the price of admission in this spot.
AAA Sports
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
1* Bonus Play San Diego Padres
The Padres have been very good at home lately and I think they ultimately earn a victory in this matchup with the Rockies. Colorado sends Tyler Matzek (6-10, 4.19 ERA) to the hill, who would surrender 11 hits but managed to hold the Dodgers to two runs over 5 1/3 innings in a win in his last outing. Note though that the lefty is 1-2 with a 4.29 ERA lifetime against the Padres and is just 2-6 with a pedestrian 4.70 ERA on the road this season. San Diego counters with left-hander Eric Stults (7-17, 4.59 ERA) who is 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA in 68 innings pitched versus the Rockies lifetime; note that the Friars are 8-3 in games started by Stults against the Rockies. Both these teams come in hot but I think the Padres have the advantage; yes the Rockies have been hot in winning six in a row at home but remember, they lost six straight away from friendly confines before the skein. San Diego has won six of seven so far on this home stand after a three game sweep of the San Francisco Giants and is a strong 46-32 at Petco Park this season (it doesn’t come as any surprise to learn that the Rockies are one of the worst road teams in all of baseball with a 20-55). Additionally, the Padres are 5-2 when hosting the Rockies the last three seasons. I think the home side is worth the price of admission in this spot.
AAA Sports
Doc's Sports
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves
MLB Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports Take #952 Atlanta Braves over Pittsburgh Pirates (Monday, 7:10pm EST)
The Atlanta Braves are no longer in the race for a playoff appearance, but this line appears to be an overreaction to that fact. The Pittsburgh Pirates are only eight games better than the Braves are this season and they only have a small edge on the mound today. Yet the Pirates have been tabbed as nearly a -150 favorite on the road. Aaron Harang has looked really good on the mound over his last two starts, with just two earned runs in 14 innings of work and a 17-2 K/BB ratio. Harang has been wearing down a bit in the middle of the season, but he clearly has gotten a second wind. Southpaw Francisco Liriano trots out there for the Buccos. Liriano has had another solid season, but he had a troublesome outing last time out as he yielded five walks with only two strikeouts. The Pirates have struggled on the road this season with a 33-41 record. It’s been a down year for Atlanta overall, but they’ve played decent baseball at home. The Pirates are clearly the better squad and have an edge on the mound, but this price is just too high. So we’ll go with Atlanta here.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves
MLB Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports Take #952 Atlanta Braves over Pittsburgh Pirates (Monday, 7:10pm EST)
The Atlanta Braves are no longer in the race for a playoff appearance, but this line appears to be an overreaction to that fact. The Pittsburgh Pirates are only eight games better than the Braves are this season and they only have a small edge on the mound today. Yet the Pirates have been tabbed as nearly a -150 favorite on the road. Aaron Harang has looked really good on the mound over his last two starts, with just two earned runs in 14 innings of work and a 17-2 K/BB ratio. Harang has been wearing down a bit in the middle of the season, but he clearly has gotten a second wind. Southpaw Francisco Liriano trots out there for the Buccos. Liriano has had another solid season, but he had a troublesome outing last time out as he yielded five walks with only two strikeouts. The Pirates have struggled on the road this season with a 33-41 record. It’s been a down year for Atlanta overall, but they’ve played decent baseball at home. The Pirates are clearly the better squad and have an edge on the mound, but this price is just too high. So we’ll go with Atlanta here.
Jesse Schule
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Free MLB play New York Yankees
The Yankees are coming off a 3-1 series victory at home over the Blue Jays, and they'll host the A.L East champion Orioles in the Bronx tonight. Baltimore is coming off a home series versus Boston, where it lost 2-of-3. The Orioles have been resting players as they get geared up for the post-season, and I don't expect them to be too excited about battling it out with the Yankees in the Bronx.
Michael Pineda will toe the slab for New York, and he's had a successful return from the DL. Pineda (3-5, 2.15 ERA) allowed a pair of runs (one earned) on four hits over 5 1/3 innings in a loss at Tampa Bay his last time out. He owns an impressive home record of 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA in five starts. He's faced Baltimore once previously this season, allowing one run on two hits over five innings in that game.
The Orioles hand the ball to Wei Yin Chen, who has been having a career year. Chen (16-4, 3.58 ERA) surrendered a pair of runs on nine hits over 5 2/3 innings in a win at Toronto his last time out. He hasn't had much success against the Yankees in his career though, and he was rocked for four runs on nine hits over five innings in his only trip to the Bronx this year. Going back the last three seasons, he's 0-2 with a 4.86 ERA in three visits to New York.
Brett Gardner is hitting .417 with a home run and five RBIs lifetime versus Chen.
Take NYY.
GL, Jesse Schule
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Free MLB play New York Yankees
The Yankees are coming off a 3-1 series victory at home over the Blue Jays, and they'll host the A.L East champion Orioles in the Bronx tonight. Baltimore is coming off a home series versus Boston, where it lost 2-of-3. The Orioles have been resting players as they get geared up for the post-season, and I don't expect them to be too excited about battling it out with the Yankees in the Bronx.
Michael Pineda will toe the slab for New York, and he's had a successful return from the DL. Pineda (3-5, 2.15 ERA) allowed a pair of runs (one earned) on four hits over 5 1/3 innings in a loss at Tampa Bay his last time out. He owns an impressive home record of 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA in five starts. He's faced Baltimore once previously this season, allowing one run on two hits over five innings in that game.
The Orioles hand the ball to Wei Yin Chen, who has been having a career year. Chen (16-4, 3.58 ERA) surrendered a pair of runs on nine hits over 5 2/3 innings in a win at Toronto his last time out. He hasn't had much success against the Yankees in his career though, and he was rocked for four runs on nine hits over five innings in his only trip to the Bronx this year. Going back the last three seasons, he's 0-2 with a 4.86 ERA in three visits to New York.
Brett Gardner is hitting .417 with a home run and five RBIs lifetime versus Chen.
Take NYY.
GL, Jesse Schule
MLB
Monday, September 22
Trend Report
7:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. CLEVELAND
Kansas City is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Cleveland's last 19 games at home
7:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Baltimore's last 18 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of NY Yankees's last 18 games when playing at home against Baltimore
7:07 PM
SEATTLE vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
7:08 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. DETROIT
Chi White Sox are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 16-7 SU in their last 23 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
7:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
8:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 12 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games at home
8:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. TEXAS
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
Houston is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
8:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. MINNESOTA
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
10:05 PM
LA ANGELS vs. OAKLAND
LA Angels are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing LA Angels
10:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
LA Dodgers are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games
10:10 PM
COLORADO vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Colorado's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Colorado's last 20 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 10 games
San Diego is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Monday, September 22
Trend Report
7:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. CLEVELAND
Kansas City is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Cleveland's last 19 games at home
7:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Baltimore's last 18 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of NY Yankees's last 18 games when playing at home against Baltimore
7:07 PM
SEATTLE vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
7:08 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. DETROIT
Chi White Sox are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 16-7 SU in their last 23 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
7:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
8:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 12 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games at home
8:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. TEXAS
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
Houston is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
8:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. MINNESOTA
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
10:05 PM
LA ANGELS vs. OAKLAND
LA Angels are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing LA Angels
10:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
LA Dodgers are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games
10:10 PM
COLORADO vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Colorado's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Colorado's last 20 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 10 games
San Diego is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 3
Monday, September 22
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CHICAGO (1 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Long Sheet
Week 3
Monday, September 22
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHICAGO (1 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 1) - 9/22/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
