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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play 08/07 8:00 NFL

(257) CINCINNATI BENGALS at (258) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Take: (258) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2

I have just one play for Monday night at this point, and don’t want to force a weak opinion here as the Bonus Play. I’d rather hopefully impart a little good information that should come into play on Thursday night as the Bengals and Chiefs duel in a pre-season game.

As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, I am all about finding little bits of information that might be used to gain an advantage. I found something regarding the Bengals that seems at least mildly meaningful to me.

This involves rookie center Russell Bodine, who’s going to be snapping the ball on a frequent basis over the next few weeks. Bodine is evidently having a few problems getting the timing down with QB Andy Dalton. This is, of course, being pretty much dismissed as nothing out of the ordinary with camp just getting rolling. But I can see this being an issue that rears its head and leads to a turnover or two in the early going.

It’s important to note that Bodine has more than just snapping the football to worry about. He did not make line calls or audibles at North Carolina. So this is a pretty steep learning curve for Bodine right now, and I’d be surprised if he emerges without some mistakes being made in his first couple of pre-season games.

These are the types of under the radar news bites that I really like to have in pocket when analyzing upcoming games. It might seem insignificant, but if Bodine’s inexperience gets the Chiefs just one extra possession on Thursday night, that’s an advantage that could make a huge difference in the final outcome. I’m still a long way from finalizing this week’s NFL exhibition card, but I see this as an exploitable advantage for Kansas City and am therefore siding with the Chiefs as very small chalk.
 
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Jim Feist

MLB Comp Pick for Monday, August 4, 2014: 7:05 PM

(903) DETROIT TIGERS VS (904) NEW YORK YANKEES.

Take: Over

Reason: Your free pick for Monday, August 4th, 2014, comes in baseball as Detroit and the Yankees meet in New York. Yankee Stadium is a great offensive park and a dynamite Detroit offense is in town, one that wears down pitchers. The over is 3-1-1 in the Yankees last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Yanks may be 4-0 in newcomer righty Brandon McCarthy's four starts, but don't be fooled: He has below average stuff. His last start the team won, 12-11, has McCarthy allowed 10 base runners and 4 runs in 6 innings. First place Detroit has a powerhouse offense, 5th in runs scored, second in batting average, on base percentage and slugging, and the over is 16-5 in the Tigers last 21 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Ace Max Scherzer goes for Detroit and the over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with 4 days of rest, as well as 3-1-1 over the total in his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1-1 when the Tigers face the American League East. And when these teams meet the over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings in New York, so look for an offensive show. Play the Tigers/Yankees over the total.
 
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Art Aronson

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland A's

1*Bonus Play on the Oakland Athletics -147

In my opinion the Athletics price tag is well worth it in this situation. The visiting Tampa Bay Rays will send Alex Cobb (7-6, 3.54 ERA) to the hill. The right-hander is coming off a dominant performance over Milwaukee where he earned the win by allowing one run over eight innings. Cobb is 3-2 with 2.34 ERA lifetime versus the Athletics. Oakland will turn to starter Jeff Samardija (4-8, 2.92 ERA) who is coming off a forgettable start against Houston where gave up four runs in just under seven innings of work; I expect a bounce back from Samardija today though who has pitched pretty well since coming over in the trade. Note that Oakland has won five of six in the series, including two of three on the road in May. The Rays have lost three of four and I think the morale is down quite a bit in the locker room after their best pitcher was traded at the deadline. The Athletics meanwhile are surging the other way as their team got stronger at the deadline and are now arguably the team to beat in the AL. While the pitching matchup is pretty even, the Athletics have home field where they are 35-19 this season. Oakland is just the better team and I think it’s a fair price to pay to get the win.

AAA Sports
 
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Doc's Sports

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals

Bonus Play Monday MLB

Take #913 Baltimore Orioles +121 over Washington Nationals (Monday, 7:05pm EST)

Two local rivals go at it in Washington D.C. on Monday as the Nationals host the Orioles. Both teams are sitting in first place in their respective divisions at the moment, but one team has been playing much better than the other lately. Baltimore is actually playing better than just about anyone at the moment with a 27-12 mark over their last 39 games. I wasn’t as big of a believer earlier this season, but after this impressive run including tough wins against several West Coast teams, I have to give the O’s their due respect. They’ve been getting the job done offensively and defensively, and different guys have stepped up every night. Youngster Kevin Gausman gets the ball in this one and he has amazing stuff. His numbers are fairly pedestrian, but it’s just a matter of time before he puts it all together. Tanner Roark makes the start for Washington. He’s posted some great numbers, but is definitely pitching a bit over his head. All of his peripheral numbers point to a higher ERA, so Roark is vulnerable. There’s a good chance this game comes down to the bullpens, and if that’s the case I like Baltimore’s a tad better. They’ve been pitching extremely well of late and also just added Andrew Miller at the trade deadline. Baltimore has the best road record in the American League and today’s game requires very little travel. That negates most of the Washington’s edge at home here. All signs point to Baltimore in this spot, and we really like the underdog price tag.
 
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Brad Diamond

FREE MLB Selection on Monday

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland A's

(908) Oakland/Tampa Bay UNDER 7

Love when teams go on the road off a loss, especially to the west coast. The Rays fit the mold showing off 7-5 home loss to the Angels. The A's looked a little flat yesterday in a 4-2 home loss to Kansas City. TB uses RHP Cobb who has been electric in the month of July with a 5-0 record in the previous 6 trips to the bump. He has a 2.34 ERA vs. Oakland. RHP Samardzija, the former Chicago Cub, is 2-1 (3.19) with a monster 0.82 WHIP since coming to the first place A's. The series has gone UNDER at a 4-0-1 clip. With RHP Cobb hurling TB has gone UNDER 5-of-6 with 5 days of rest. Stay UNDER tonight.
 
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MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, August 4


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (60 - 51) at NY METS (53 - 58) - 12:10 PM
TIM HUDSON (R) vs. DILLON GEE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 68-77 (-22.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 60-67 (-23.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 23-14 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 31-21 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 179-121 (+52.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 31-21 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-11 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 18-12 (+8.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 39-20 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HUDSON is 45-24 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HUDSON is 51-17 (+28.5 Units) against the money line in August games since 1997. (Team's Record)
HUDSON is 44-23 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HUDSON is 159-89 (+36.3 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 46-66 (-21.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 18-35 (-14.6 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 97-119 (-34.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 97-119 (-34.4 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 10-31 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-1 (+4.1 Units) against NY METS this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

TIM HUDSON vs. NY METS since 1997
HUDSON is 17-10 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.254.
His team's record is 21-10 (+8.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 12-19. (-8.4 units)

DILLON GEE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
GEE is 0-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 8.10 and a WHIP of 2.024.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.1 units)

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DETROIT (61 - 47) at NY YANKEES (57 - 53) - 7:05 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. BRANDON MCCARTHY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 159-122 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 31-20 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 31-20 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 24-13 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
DETROIT is 22-11 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
DETROIT is 11-3 (+7.8 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
DETROIT is 14-7 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SCHERZER is 42-15 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 40-15 (+17.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 23-6 (+13.4 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MCCARTHY is 16-28 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MCCARTHY is 3-9 (-7.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
MCCARTHY is 3-9 (-7.8 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
MCCARTHY is 5-12 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MCCARTHY is 5-15 (-12.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MCCARTHY is 4-14 (-10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MAX SCHERZER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SCHERZER is 6-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.289.
His team's record is 6-1 (+6.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.3 units)

BRANDON MCCARTHY vs. DETROIT since 1997
MCCARTHY is 2-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.28 and a WHIP of 1.178.
His team's record is 5-4 (+0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.6 units)

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TEXAS (43 - 68) at CHI WHITE SOX (54 - 58) - 8:10 PM
NICK MARTINEZ (R) vs. HECTOR NOESI (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 43-68 (-26.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 17-30 (-15.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
TEXAS is 41-64 (-24.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 29-51 (-24.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 32-47 (-15.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 27-40 (-15.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
TEXAS is 12-22 (-13.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 54-58 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 21-7 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 39-33 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHI WHITE SOX are 9-16 (-12.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 112-151 (-23.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 60-93 (-22.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 50-70 (-21.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 2-1 (+0.4 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

NICK MARTINEZ vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
No recent starts.

HECTOR NOESI vs. TEXAS since 1997
NOESI is 0-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 8.18 and a WHIP of 1.273.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

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TAMPA BAY (54 - 57) at OAKLAND (67 - 43) - 10:05 PM
ALEX COBB (R) vs. JEFF SAMARDZIJA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 54-57 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 34-37 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 24-32 (-16.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
OAKLAND is 165-112 (+27.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 139-81 (+34.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 278-206 (+63.1 Units) against the money line in August games since 1997.
OAKLAND is 65-39 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 165-110 (+45.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 174-120 (+46.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 104-77 (+25.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 122-72 (+30.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAMARDZIJA is 7-16 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
SAMARDZIJA is 2-12 (-10.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season. (Team's Record)
SAMARDZIJA is 10-20 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAMARDZIJA is 0-6 (-6.8 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less this season. (Team's Record)
SAMARDZIJA is 7-16 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
SAMARDZIJA is 0-6 (-6.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

ALEX COBB vs. OAKLAND since 1997
COBB is 3-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.34 and a WHIP of 1.110.
His team's record is 4-2 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.3 units)

JEFF SAMARDZIJA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

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CINCINNATI (56 - 55) at CLEVELAND (56 - 55) - 7:05 PM
ALFREDO SIMON (R) vs. COREY KLUBER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 148-126 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 84-52 (+22.8 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 142-120 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 55-30 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 684-756 (+55.9 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 621-700 (+39.9 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 445-492 (+34.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 496-545 (+46.6 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 344-355 (+48.9 Units) against the money line in road games after a win since 1997.
SIMON is 16-6 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
SIMON is 10-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
SIMON is 16-6 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
SIMON is 11-2 (+10.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 20-40 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in August games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ALFREDO SIMON vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
SIMON is 1-0 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.571.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

COREY KLUBER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.

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LA ANGELS (66 - 44) at LA DODGERS (63 - 49) - 10:10 PM
GARRETT RICHARDS (R) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 5-14 (-10.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 10-21 (-16.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 60-78 (-22.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 32-16 (+12.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
LA DODGERS are 19-5 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GREINKE is 36-17 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 32-11 (+17.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 25-8 (+13.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 since 1997. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 20-4 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 36-17 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 27-10 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 19-5 (+13.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA ANGELS are 66-44 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA ANGELS are 732-717 (+62.7 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 93-70 (+30.9 Units) against the money line in road games in an inter-league game since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 611-601 (+56.5 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

GARRETT RICHARDS vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
RICHARDS is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 1.799.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
GREINKE is 1-4 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.510.
His team's record is 2-6 (-4.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (62 - 48) at WASHINGTON (60 - 49) - 7:05 PM
KEVIN GAUSMAN (R) vs. TANNER ROARK (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 93-63 (+29.3 Units) against the money line in home games in an inter-league game since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 63-48 (+20.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 23-16 (+15.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 33-23 (+18.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BALTIMORE is 9-3 (+7.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday this season.
BALTIMORE is 56-46 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 45-27 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 47-33 (+19.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 18-14 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
BALTIMORE is 28-19 (+14.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 14-7 (+10.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 101-93 (-17.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 29-29 (-9.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
WASHINGTON is 50-60 (-17.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-1 (+1.8 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

KEVIN GAUSMAN vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
GAUSMAN is 0-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 15.75 and a WHIP of 2.250.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

TANNER ROARK vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
No recent starts.
 
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MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, August 4


Detroit at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET
Scherzer: 38-12 TSR as a favorite
McCarthy: 3-9 TSR in home games

Texas at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
Martinez: TEXAS 11-1 in road games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more
Noesi: CHI WHITE SOX 9-16 as a home favorite of -125 to -150

Tampa Bay at Oakland, 10:05 ET
Cobb: TAMPA BAY 18-8 in the second half of the season
Samardzija: 2-9 TSR when the money line is -100 to -150

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Simon: 11-2 TSR after a win
Kluber: 10-2 OVER after 3 or more consecutive wins

LA Angels at LA Dodgers, 10:10 ET
Richards: LA ANGELS 5-14 when the total is 7 or less
Greinke: 12-1 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -175

Baltimore at Washington, 7:05 ET
Gausman: BALTIMORE 23-16 as a road underdog of +125 to +150
Roark: WASHINGTON 11-20 after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games
 

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