Monday 8/31/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Saad of Las Vegas Sports Services

Monday 8/31/2015 Bonus Play:

The Yankees sure have had some offensive explosions this season and Sunday they put up a 20 spot on the scoreboard against the Braves. And, that was without Alex Rodriquez and Mark Teixiera in the lineup. The Yankees scored 38 runs in their three-game series with Atlanta. The Yankees trail the Blue Jays for the AL East lead by 1 1/2 games. This is a two-horse race to the end now with the Rays, Orioles and Red Sox all double-digits back. Still, there is always excitement when these two storied rivals meet up. The Red Sox lost Sunday at the Mets, snapping a three game win streak by Boston. Still, the Sox have been playing much better, winning seven of their last 11 games and averaging 4.5 runs per game. Eduardo Rodriquez starts for the Sox. He's allowed just three runs over his last 14 innings. That preceded a Aug 12 start at Miami where he allowed eight runs over five innings. Ivan Nova starts for the Yankees. Nova is coming off a rough outing against Houston, where he allowed seven runs over four innings. Both teams hitting and playing well.

I like the OVER here tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Monday, August 31

Trend Report

7:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 10 games when playing Tampa Bay

7:07 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Cleveland's last 18 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 11 games
Toronto is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home

7:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
Boston is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

7:10 PM
MIAMI vs. ATLANTA
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games

7:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY METS
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games
NY Mets are 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

8:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CHI CUBS
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games
Chi Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games

8:10 PM
SEATTLE vs. HOUSTON
Seattle is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston
Seattle is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Houston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Seattle

8:15 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ST. LOUIS
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games on the road
St. Louis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
St. Louis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

8:40 PM
ARIZONA vs. COLORADO
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Arizona is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Arizona
Colorado is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Arizona

10:05 PM
LA ANGELS vs. OAKLAND
LA Angels are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 19 of LA Angels's last 25 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

10:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games at home

10:10 PM
TEXAS vs. SAN DIEGO
Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 8 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Texas
San Diego is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Coach Fletcher’s Monday Bonus Play

The Pick St. Louis Cardinals - 142


Nationals May Face Last Ditch Effort in St. Louis

The Nationals find themselves 5.5 games behind the New York Mets in the NL East. The Cardinals have a slimmer 4.5 game lead over the Pirates in the NL Central. Obviously this series will have potential drastic repercussions for the loser.

The Pitchers

National, Gonzalez Cards, Lackey

I will admit my bias right here and now. John Lackey is one of my favorite pitchers. I watched him steadfastly when he was with the Angels and there is just something about him that makes me think Bulldog. This guy never gives less than 100%.

· 9-7, 4.11 era 11-8, 2.92 era

· 1.48 whip 1.20 whip

· 4-4, 4.84 era road 8-3, 1.91 era home

· Team 6-7 in his road starts Team is 10-3 in his home starts

· 0-3, 10.31 last 3 starts 2-1, 2.95 era last 3

· 2-3, 4.63 era last 7 3-3, 2.98 era last 7

· 5-5, 3.84 era last 15 7-5, 2.91 era last 15

· 6-6, 3.80 era night 8-8, 3.11 night

· 1-3, 5.68 era August 2-2, 3.51 August

· 3-3, 4.39 era post All-Star 4-3, 2.77 era post All-Star

· LH hit .273 against LH hit .258 against

· RH hit .289 against PH hit .251 against

· Last start – 4.2 innings, 7 hits, 4 runs (Padres) Last start – 7 inn, 7 hits, 1 run at Ariz

Normally this would be a slam dunk for Lackey. He is superior in every possible category. But the baseball and gambling Gods don’t want this to be too easy. So here is the wrench they throw into the pot:

Gio Gonzalez 2-1 vs St. Louis with 1.85 era

1 start 2015 – 4/21/15 6 innings, 8 hits, 0 runs

1 start 2014 4/18/14 7 innings, 4 hits, 1 run

Now that is hardly fair, is it? Admittedly that’s a small sample and the last start was 4 months ago. But it will make you think twice.

John Lackey 1-0 vs Washington with 4.58 era

1 start – 4/22/15 5.7 innings, 8 hits, 5 runs

No previous starts other than 2008 or earlier

Lackey did go through a spell where he was unbettable on the road. His last start which was on the road was excellent. And he is an animal at home.

The Bullpens

Washington 3.78 era on road Cards 2.01 era at home

This is a gigantic edge for the Cards.

The Hitters

Washington Cards

· Score 4.2 runs per game Score 4.0 runs per game

· 4.4 runs per game on road 3.8 runs per game home

· 4.3 runs per game vs RHP 4.0 runs per game vs LHP

· 5.7 runs per game last 7 6.0 runs per game last 7

· 4.2 runs per game grass 4.0 runs per game grass

· 4.3 runs per game night 4.1 runs per game night

It isn’t surprising that the Cardinals offensive numbers, besides the last 7 games, are average at best. The Nats top them in almost every area and the Nats are not an offensive powerhouse themselves. The Cardinal edge will be detailed in the Odds and Ends – and it is bordering on crazy incredible.

Odds and Ends

Washington Cards

· Allow 4 runs per game Allow 3 runs per game

· Run differential plus 0.2 runs per gm Run differential plus 1.0 per game

· 66-63 84-46

· 34-38 when total is 7 or less 41-29 when total is 7 or less

· 1-5 as road dog +125/+150 13-10 as home favorite -125/-150

· 29-37 road 46-19 home

· 15-19 on road when total is 7 or less 26-12 at home when total is 7 or less

· 12-16 in August 18-9 in August

· 40-45 at night 59-33 at night

· 49-48 vs RHP 19-15 vs LHP

· 29-30 vs team w/winning record 37-20 vs team w/winning record

· 8-16 vs team w/winning record 2nd ½ 12-9 vs team w/winning record 2nd half

X Cardinals are 13-3 vs Nationals last 3 seasons

X Cardinals are 2-1 vs Nationals this season

X Cardinals are 6-0 vs Nationals last 3 seasons at home

Coach’s Conclusion:

Take a second run through the Odds and Ends and behold the beauty of this team. And that’s another thing I like about the Cards. They are an impressive and classy team. Year in and year out they field teams that over-perform. 84 wins and August isn’t over? They are nearly bulletproof at home and have an excellent history against the Nats. I consider Washington to be an extreme example of an under-achieving team. And it seems like that is the case every year. I don’t know if it’s the front office, the manager, the clubhouse culture or what – but they are always expected to go to the World Series and it’s not happening.

I don’t care if Gio Gonzalez has spectacular numbers against the Cards. Well, actually I do care. I wish his numbers were horrible. But Lackey is my boy and Busch Stadium belongs to him. I’m taking the Cards.

The Pick St. Louis Cardinals