Dave Cokin
Bonus Play 08/30 Saturday 12:00 PM
(187) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (188) PURDUE
Take: (187) WESTERN MICHIGAN +11 (note +12 or +12.5 available in LV on this game as of now)
It really doesn’t get much uglier than this. Western Michigan and Purdue would each probably like to regard 2013 as if it never happened. The Broncos and Boilermakers combined for a grotesque 2-22 record. Purdue never beat a single FBS opponent, and the only WMU victory was by one point against hapless UMass.
I wouldn’t look for a huge step forward by either squad this season, although I do think there’s a bit more reason for optimism at Western Michigan. They appear to have had what, by MAC standards, is a fine recruiting class and several of their true freshmen will be seeing action right from the outset. Head coach PJ Fleck got a pass from me for the most part as far as last season goes. The cupboard Fleck inherited from Bill Cubit might not have been totally bare, but it also sure wasn’t stocked with goodies.
I’m not going to be as liberal with my grade for Darrell Hazell. Purdue was not supposed to be a winning team, so this isn’t about them just going 1-11. It was more the way they went about accumulating that sorry record. The Boilermakers were only able to win against Indiana State, and they actually lost the stats to even that FCS opponent. Worse is that this team didn’t appear to have a clue as to what they were doing in most of the games I saw. Losing games is one thing. Getting completely dominated virtually every week is something else, and aside from a respectable loss to powerful Michigan State, there was almost nothing positive at all for this entry in 2013.
I’m already on record as predicting that Hazell might well be done in West Lafayette after just two seasons. Purdue figures to be a dog in all their league games, and to make matters worse, the only games in which they figure to at least compete are each on the conference road. I’m not ruling out improvement, as there’s now plenty of experience on this team, and that’s usually a plus. But the Boilermakers were consistently out game planned last season, and if that happens again this season, the results are going to be very similar to what we saw in 2013.
This was a game I had circled as a potential opening week play coming out of spring ball, as the reports I got on Western Michigan were positive and upbeat. There was one major concern, which was courtesy of Coach Fleck. He indicated at the start of camp that as many as 14 true freshmen might be starting come September. Had that ended up being the case, there’s no chance I’d be taking them here. But as it turns out, while several newcomers are going to see action right away, only two raw recruits are starting, and one of those is the long snapper.
Western Michigan is still likely to be pretty lousy this season. I’ve got them finishing fifth in the MAC West. But if the impressive freshman class comes along quickly, they could spring an upset or two and approach .500. As for Purdue, I would expect a bit of improvement but not enough to avoid finishing at the bottom of the B10 West. Maybe they can avoid another train wreck but there’s just no way I can see this team winning more than four games, and that’s the glass half full outlook.
I have Purdue winning this game, but can’t buy the number being as high as it is. I see them being extremely vulnerable to the run again, and that’s good news for a Broncos squad that probably wants to grind things out and hope to stay close enough to have a chance at the upset late. What I sure don’t see here is the blowout Purdue win. If that’s the case, double with Western Michigan should be more than enough to make getting at least the cover a good possibility.