Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Monday
PHILLIES (Hellickson) at MARLINS (Cosart) 7:10 PM
Take: PHILLIES +120
Miami is a good looking team right now, but the one liability that stats out is the back of the rotation. I don’t see Jarred Cosart being a solution. The righty has never put it together at this level, and he really hasn’t been especially effective of late at AAA with New Orleans.
So there’s a pretty substantial advantage here for Jeremy Hellickson, who has been rock solid recently for the Phillies. It’s also worth noting that Hellickson has had Miami’s number this year. He’s beaten the Marlins twice, and the Phils have won all three of his starts in the series this season.
If Hellickson can put together another decent effort here, I have to think that the road dog is plenty live as Cosart is clearly hittable. The price is somewhat reflective of the pitching disparity as it opened on the low side and got bet down a bit during the evening, but I still see reason to give the Phillies a roll here.
Bonus Play Monday
PHILLIES (Hellickson) at MARLINS (Cosart) 7:10 PM
Take: PHILLIES +120
Miami is a good looking team right now, but the one liability that stats out is the back of the rotation. I don’t see Jarred Cosart being a solution. The righty has never put it together at this level, and he really hasn’t been especially effective of late at AAA with New Orleans.
So there’s a pretty substantial advantage here for Jeremy Hellickson, who has been rock solid recently for the Phillies. It’s also worth noting that Hellickson has had Miami’s number this year. He’s beaten the Marlins twice, and the Phils have won all three of his starts in the series this season.
If Hellickson can put together another decent effort here, I have to think that the road dog is plenty live as Cosart is clearly hittable. The price is somewhat reflective of the pitching disparity as it opened on the low side and got bet down a bit during the evening, but I still see reason to give the Phillies a roll here.
Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Monday, July 25, 2016
Your Bonus Play for Monday, July 25, 2016 is in the baseball contest between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Marlins in Miami. A pair of weak offenses clash in Miami, a big park, great for pitchers. Philadelphia is on a 7-3 run under the total and the Under is 8-1 in the Phillies last 9 vs. the National League East. The Under is 7-1 when Jeremy Hellickson faces the National League East. Hellickson (7-7) gave up just a single run on five hits without a walk while striking out eight over eight sparkling innings in Wednesday's win against the Marlins. Miami is 6-2 under the total against a team with a losing record. And the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Play the Phillies/Miami Marlins Under the total.
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Monday, July 25, 2016
Your Bonus Play for Monday, July 25, 2016 is in the baseball contest between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Marlins in Miami. A pair of weak offenses clash in Miami, a big park, great for pitchers. Philadelphia is on a 7-3 run under the total and the Under is 8-1 in the Phillies last 9 vs. the National League East. The Under is 7-1 when Jeremy Hellickson faces the National League East. Hellickson (7-7) gave up just a single run on five hits without a walk while striking out eight over eight sparkling innings in Wednesday's win against the Marlins. Miami is 6-2 under the total against a team with a losing record. And the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Play the Phillies/Miami Marlins Under the total.
Mike Lundin
A's vs Rangers
8* MLB Free Pick Texas Rangers
Sunday's free pick on the Halos was nothing short of an embarrassment as they ended up a 13-3 loser at Houston. I really like Monday's Bonus Play though which features Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers. The Rangers are coming off a 3-6 road trip out of the All-Star break, but they've been money home at Arlington all season long and this looks like a good spot to back the Rangers.
Martin Perez (7-7, 4.37) takes the ball for the home team. He's been knocked around pretty bad in four road starts this month, much like the whole Texas team he's been far better at home. Perez is 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA in nine turns at Globe Life Park compared to 1-6 with a 5.95 ERA in 11 starts away from home.
Daniel Mengden (1-5, 5.52 ERA) takes the ball for Oakland. The 23 year old rookie is 0-2 with a 9.33 ERA in four starts this month. He's dished out 14 free passes during that span and he gave up five his last time out.
Rangers are 9-2 in Perez's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, Athletics are 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
A's vs Rangers
8* MLB Free Pick Texas Rangers
Sunday's free pick on the Halos was nothing short of an embarrassment as they ended up a 13-3 loser at Houston. I really like Monday's Bonus Play though which features Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers. The Rangers are coming off a 3-6 road trip out of the All-Star break, but they've been money home at Arlington all season long and this looks like a good spot to back the Rangers.
Martin Perez (7-7, 4.37) takes the ball for the home team. He's been knocked around pretty bad in four road starts this month, much like the whole Texas team he's been far better at home. Perez is 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA in nine turns at Globe Life Park compared to 1-6 with a 5.95 ERA in 11 starts away from home.
Daniel Mengden (1-5, 5.52 ERA) takes the ball for Oakland. The 23 year old rookie is 0-2 with a 9.33 ERA in four starts this month. He's dished out 14 free passes during that span and he gave up five his last time out.
Rangers are 9-2 in Perez's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a losing record, Athletics are 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Marc Lawrence
Angels vs Royals
Play - L.A. Angels w/Santiago
Edges - Angels: Hector Santiago 4-1 team starts versus A.L. Central this season, and 5-2 as a dog this season. Royals: Ian Kennedy 5-9 team starts at night this season. With Santiago 6-1 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in his last seven overall team starts, we recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Angels. Thank you and good luck as always.
Angels vs Royals
Play - L.A. Angels w/Santiago
Edges - Angels: Hector Santiago 4-1 team starts versus A.L. Central this season, and 5-2 as a dog this season. Royals: Ian Kennedy 5-9 team starts at night this season. With Santiago 6-1 with a 2.28 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in his last seven overall team starts, we recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Angels. Thank you and good luck as always.
MLB
Monday, July 25
Trend Report
7:05 PM
COLORADO vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
7:07 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. TORONTO
San Diego is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games
Toronto is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing San Diego
7:10 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. NY METS
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets are 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Mets's last 10 games when playing at home against St. Louis
7:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. MIAMI
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Miami is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
7:10 PM
DETROIT vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit's last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games on the road
Boston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
7:20 PM
ARIZONA vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Arizona's last 18 games
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games at home
8:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. TEXAS
Oakland is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Texas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games
8:10 PM
CHI CUBS vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Chi Cubs are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games
Chi White Sox are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
8:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Yankees's last 10 games when playing on the road against Houston
NY Yankees are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games at home
8:15 PM
LA ANGELS vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
LA Angels are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home
10:15 PM
CINCINNATI vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Cincinnati is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
Monday, July 25
Trend Report
7:05 PM
COLORADO vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
7:07 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. TORONTO
San Diego is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games
Toronto is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing San Diego
7:10 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. NY METS
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of St. Louis's last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets are 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Mets's last 10 games when playing at home against St. Louis
7:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. MIAMI
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Miami is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
7:10 PM
DETROIT vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit's last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games on the road
Boston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
7:20 PM
ARIZONA vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Arizona's last 18 games
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games at home
8:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. TEXAS
Oakland is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Texas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games
8:10 PM
CHI CUBS vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Chi Cubs are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games
Chi White Sox are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
8:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Yankees's last 10 games when playing on the road against Houston
NY Yankees are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games at home
8:15 PM
LA ANGELS vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
LA Angels are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home
10:15 PM
CINCINNATI vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Cincinnati is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
MLB
Dunkel
Monday, July 25
Cincinnati @ San Francisco
Game 957-958
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(DeSclfni) 15.697
San Francisco
(Peavy) 14.547
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
-150
8
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+130); Over
Detroit @ Boston
Game 959-960
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
(Verlnder) 13.086
Boston
(Pmeranz) 16.890
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 4
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-140
10
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-140); Over
Oakland @ Texas
Game 961-962
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
(Mengden) 16.890
Texas
(Perez) 16.078
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
-155
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+135); Under
NY Yankees @ Houston
Game 963-964
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Pineda) 14.784
Houston
(Keuchel) 17.641
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-160
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-160); Over
LA Angels @ Kansas City
Game 965-966
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
LA Angels
(Santiago) 16.078
Kansas City
(Kennedy) 14.686
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Angels
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
-125
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Angels
(+105); Under
Colorado @ Baltimore
Game 967-968
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(DeLaRosa) 14.180
Baltimore
(Gallardo) 15.584
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
-155
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-155); Under
San Diego @ Toronto
Game 969-970
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(Rea) 14.021
Toronto
(Sanchez) 16.887
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-245
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-245); Under
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Game 971-972
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Arrieta) 15.435
Chicago White Sox
(Gonzalez) 16.511
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago White Sox
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-215
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago White Sox
(+180); Over
Philadelphia @ Miami
Game 951-952
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
(Hellcksn) 13.018
Miami
(Cosart) 14.440
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
-130
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-130); Under
St. Louis @ NY Mets
Game 953-954
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Mrtinez) 13.235
NY Mets
(Syndrgrd) 14.621
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-155
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
(-155); Under
Arizona @ Milwaukee
Game 955-956
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
(Shipley) 15.729
Milwaukee
(Andrson) 13.330
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-125
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+105); Over
Dunkel
Monday, July 25
Cincinnati @ San Francisco
Game 957-958
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(DeSclfni) 15.697
San Francisco
(Peavy) 14.547
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
-150
8
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+130); Over
Detroit @ Boston
Game 959-960
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
(Verlnder) 13.086
Boston
(Pmeranz) 16.890
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 4
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-140
10
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-140); Over
Oakland @ Texas
Game 961-962
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
(Mengden) 16.890
Texas
(Perez) 16.078
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
-155
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+135); Under
NY Yankees @ Houston
Game 963-964
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Pineda) 14.784
Houston
(Keuchel) 17.641
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-160
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-160); Over
LA Angels @ Kansas City
Game 965-966
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
LA Angels
(Santiago) 16.078
Kansas City
(Kennedy) 14.686
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Angels
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
-125
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Angels
(+105); Under
Colorado @ Baltimore
Game 967-968
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(DeLaRosa) 14.180
Baltimore
(Gallardo) 15.584
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
-155
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-155); Under
San Diego @ Toronto
Game 969-970
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(Rea) 14.021
Toronto
(Sanchez) 16.887
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-245
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-245); Under
Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox
Game 971-972
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Arrieta) 15.435
Chicago White Sox
(Gonzalez) 16.511
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago White Sox
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-215
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago White Sox
(+180); Over
Philadelphia @ Miami
Game 951-952
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
(Hellcksn) 13.018
Miami
(Cosart) 14.440
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
-130
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-130); Under
St. Louis @ NY Mets
Game 953-954
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Mrtinez) 13.235
NY Mets
(Syndrgrd) 14.621
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-155
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Mets
(-155); Under
Arizona @ Milwaukee
Game 955-956
July 25, 2016 @
Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
(Shipley) 15.729
Milwaukee
(Andrson) 13.330
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-125
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+105); Over
MLB betting cheat sheet: Interleague Play Takes Center Stage
The headliner will be the “battle for Chicago” with two games taking place on both the North and South side of the city.
Power Sports breaks down the best MLB betting notes so you can handicap every series like a pro this week, including a busy week of interleague action.
Interleague Play Takes Center Stage
Of the 15 series that take place in the first half of the week, seven will be of the Interleague variety. The headliner will be the “battle for Chicago” with two games taking place on both the North and South side of the city.
There will also be four, short two-game series taking place Tuesday-Wednesday. Those are Seattle-Pittsburgh, Washington-Cleveland, Atlanta-Minnesota (yuck!) and Tampa Bay-Los Angeles.
For the record, the American League holds a 106-87 edge in Interleague Games this year.
Seattle could be a team to watch in Pittsburgh as the Mariners are 9-3 vs. the National League in 2016. The A.L. has won Interleague Play every year since 2004. The current .549 win percentage is right in line with the average percentage, year to year, over the last decade.
Rocky Road
On paper, you would seem to heavily favor Baltimore this week against Colorado. The Rockies’ offensive numbers (predictably) dip dramatically outside of Coors Field (they do add a designated hitter here) and the Orioles are now a very-strong 36-14 at Camden Yards after an impressive sweep of Cleveland over the weekend. That’s the best home record in all of baseball.
But there is one interesting note that I’d like to pass along here. Factoring in only road games, the ERA of the much maligned Colorado staff is 3.83, which is actually seventh best overall! The ERA’s of the respective two starting rotations overall are not that different as Baltimore ranks 25th (4.95) while Colorado ranks 28th (5.04).
A big deal here though could be that the Orioles best starter (Chris Tillman) will go Tuesday while the Rockies best starter (Tyler Anderson) won’t be going at all in this series.
Going North
The Blue Jays could use a big boost right now. They just dropped two of three at home to Seattle over the weekend are three games out in the American League East. Still though, they are in Wild Card position.
Personally, I think the team is better than its overall record, but its Interleague record (11-6) remains strong. Those 11 Interleague victories are the most of any team in baseball right now. Were it not for a poor record in one-run games (9-18), this team would probably be winning its division.
I would not be the least bit surprised to see the Jays hammer the Padres this week even though San Diego has been shockingly competitive against San Francisco, St. Louis and Washington since the All-Star Break (5-5 overall).
Pitching Notes
* One of the biggest stories making the rounds right now is the Chris Sale saga in Chicago. The White Sox ace has been suspended for five games due to apparently tearing up a team uniform that he did not wish to wear Saturday. As a result, he will miss the entire series against the Cubs. Some are saying this could be the final nail in the White Sox coffin, which is too bad for a season that started with so much promise (team was 26-13 at one point!). The Sox will be an underdog in every game in this series.
* In the Rockies-Orioles writeup, I mentioned Chris Tillman being Baltimore’s best pitcher. This statement is not up for debate. Tillman has an 18-3 team start record, making him the best pitcher to have bet on in 2016 (+16.2 units) by a fairly comfortable margin. He’s been especially dominant of late by giving up just one run in seven innings in four straight starts (all wins) with only 16 hits allowed.
Hitter Notes
* Now isn’t the best time to talking about Cleveland’s exploits as they just got swept in Baltimore. They scored only six runs total in the three-game series. Looking ahead, the Indians’ 28th place ranking in batting average (.238) and 30th place ranking in on base percentage (.297) in road games doesn’t bode well for them. Thankfully then (for them), they are at home this week against Washington. The Tribe offense is fifth in runs scored at home.
* Teams whose overall offensive numbers could decline this week are Seattle and Tampa Bay as both head to National League Parks and thus will be losing the designated hitter from the lineup. Of those two teams, the Mariners are clearly more likely to absorb the loss of the DH as the Rays are only 25th in runs scored to begin with.
Totals Trend
The Over is 9-2 for San Diego in Interleague Play. Incredibly, those games have averaged 15.3 runs per game.
The headliner will be the “battle for Chicago” with two games taking place on both the North and South side of the city.
Power Sports breaks down the best MLB betting notes so you can handicap every series like a pro this week, including a busy week of interleague action.
Interleague Play Takes Center Stage
Of the 15 series that take place in the first half of the week, seven will be of the Interleague variety. The headliner will be the “battle for Chicago” with two games taking place on both the North and South side of the city.
There will also be four, short two-game series taking place Tuesday-Wednesday. Those are Seattle-Pittsburgh, Washington-Cleveland, Atlanta-Minnesota (yuck!) and Tampa Bay-Los Angeles.
For the record, the American League holds a 106-87 edge in Interleague Games this year.
Seattle could be a team to watch in Pittsburgh as the Mariners are 9-3 vs. the National League in 2016. The A.L. has won Interleague Play every year since 2004. The current .549 win percentage is right in line with the average percentage, year to year, over the last decade.
Rocky Road
On paper, you would seem to heavily favor Baltimore this week against Colorado. The Rockies’ offensive numbers (predictably) dip dramatically outside of Coors Field (they do add a designated hitter here) and the Orioles are now a very-strong 36-14 at Camden Yards after an impressive sweep of Cleveland over the weekend. That’s the best home record in all of baseball.
But there is one interesting note that I’d like to pass along here. Factoring in only road games, the ERA of the much maligned Colorado staff is 3.83, which is actually seventh best overall! The ERA’s of the respective two starting rotations overall are not that different as Baltimore ranks 25th (4.95) while Colorado ranks 28th (5.04).
A big deal here though could be that the Orioles best starter (Chris Tillman) will go Tuesday while the Rockies best starter (Tyler Anderson) won’t be going at all in this series.
Going North
The Blue Jays could use a big boost right now. They just dropped two of three at home to Seattle over the weekend are three games out in the American League East. Still though, they are in Wild Card position.
Personally, I think the team is better than its overall record, but its Interleague record (11-6) remains strong. Those 11 Interleague victories are the most of any team in baseball right now. Were it not for a poor record in one-run games (9-18), this team would probably be winning its division.
I would not be the least bit surprised to see the Jays hammer the Padres this week even though San Diego has been shockingly competitive against San Francisco, St. Louis and Washington since the All-Star Break (5-5 overall).
Pitching Notes
* One of the biggest stories making the rounds right now is the Chris Sale saga in Chicago. The White Sox ace has been suspended for five games due to apparently tearing up a team uniform that he did not wish to wear Saturday. As a result, he will miss the entire series against the Cubs. Some are saying this could be the final nail in the White Sox coffin, which is too bad for a season that started with so much promise (team was 26-13 at one point!). The Sox will be an underdog in every game in this series.
* In the Rockies-Orioles writeup, I mentioned Chris Tillman being Baltimore’s best pitcher. This statement is not up for debate. Tillman has an 18-3 team start record, making him the best pitcher to have bet on in 2016 (+16.2 units) by a fairly comfortable margin. He’s been especially dominant of late by giving up just one run in seven innings in four straight starts (all wins) with only 16 hits allowed.
Hitter Notes
* Now isn’t the best time to talking about Cleveland’s exploits as they just got swept in Baltimore. They scored only six runs total in the three-game series. Looking ahead, the Indians’ 28th place ranking in batting average (.238) and 30th place ranking in on base percentage (.297) in road games doesn’t bode well for them. Thankfully then (for them), they are at home this week against Washington. The Tribe offense is fifth in runs scored at home.
* Teams whose overall offensive numbers could decline this week are Seattle and Tampa Bay as both head to National League Parks and thus will be losing the designated hitter from the lineup. Of those two teams, the Mariners are clearly more likely to absorb the loss of the DH as the Rays are only 25th in runs scored to begin with.
Totals Trend
The Over is 9-2 for San Diego in Interleague Play. Incredibly, those games have averaged 15.3 runs per game.
Sharp baseball bettors are always looking to cash on first five innings wagers
Cleveland's Danny Salazar has surrendered a grand total of just 22 earned runs in innings 1-5 this season, good for an ERA of 2.22.
We live in an era of specialization. From politics to sports to religion to education, any cursory romp through the internet utilizing any of the aforementioned topics as search criteria will no doubt produce hundreds, if not thousands, of various websites and articles designed to answer your wildest query.
Hell, type in the phrase, “Expecting father,” and within seconds you’ll be inundated with dozens of blogs designed solely in the art of educating men who find themselves counting down the days until the birth of their first child.
This era of specialization applies to sports betting as well. Blogs, websites, databases, podcasts, live chats - you name it. Never before in the course of human history has so much information been so readily available at such breakneck speeds.
Which is why this next part may come as a bit of a surprise.
Tell me, for those of us interested in researching MLB first five innings data, where do we go? Where exactly can I find the first five innings records for all Major League Baseball clubs in 2016? What about data in regards to first five innings totals? Are we asking too much?
Simply put, the sports betting and baseball realms of the internet have been asleep at the wheel in regards to this data. And it’s a damn shame because in this age of specialization, nothing fits the bill in regards to baseball wagering quite like beating the bookmakers in the first five innings department.
An aside for the uninitiated: A "first five innings wager" (side or total) is exactly what it sounds like. Instead of betting a full baseball game, your wager is scored at the completion of five innings rather than nine innings (or extra innings). This type of wager appeals to many because it essentially eliminates the necessity of handicapping each team’s bullpen by reducing the game to starting pitcher vs. starting pitcher. Additionally, this type of specialized bet permits for a more focused assessment of integral splits, such as right-handed pitchers vs. left-handed batters and vice versa.
So after a research-filled weekend of scouring the deepest and darkest corners of the internet, here is a breakdown of every MLB team’s record in first five innings bets this season:
2016 MLB FIRST FIVE INNINGS RECORDS
*As of Sunday morning, July 24
1. Chicago Cubs: 54-29-13 (.650)
2. Cleveland Indians: 55-32-9 (.632)
3. Toronto Blue Jays: 57-34-7 (.626)
4. Washington Nationals: 45-30-23 (.600)
5. Miami Marlins: 45-34-18 (.569)
T6. San Francisco Giants: 47-36-14 (.566)
T6. Los Angeles Dodgers: 47-36-16 (.566)
8. Boston Red Sox: 45-36-14 (.555)
9. St. Louis Cardinals: 44-39-14 (.530)
10. Pittsburgh Pirates: 45-40-12 (.529)
11. Seattle Mariners: 42-38-17 (.525)
12. Baltimore Orioles: 44-40-12 (.523)
13. Texas Rangers: 43-40-15 (.518)
T14. New York Mets: 44-41-11 (.517)
T14. Chicago White Sox: 44-41-11 (.517)
16. Houston Astros: 43-41-13 (.511)
17. Detroit Tigers: 44-43-10 (.505)
18. Kansas City Royals: 39-44-13 (.469)
19. Milwaukee Brewers: 39-45-11 (.464)
20. Tampa Bay Rays: 37-46-14 (.445)
21. Colorado Rockies: 38-48-11 (.441)
22. Los Angeles Angels: 37-47-13 (.440)
23. Philadelphia Phillies: 33-44-22 (.428)
24. Arizona Diamondbacks: 37-51-9 (.420)
25. Minnesota Twins: 34-47-16 (.419)
26. San Diego Padres: 38-53-7 (.417)
27. Oakland Athletics: 34-48-16 (.414)
28. Atlanta Braves: 33-47-18 (.412)
29. New York Yankees: 33-48-16 (.407)
30. Cincinnati Reds: 34-56-7 (.377)
Granted, there aren’t a plethora of surprises here, as quality franchises like the Cubs and Indians find themselves at the top while disasters such as the Reds and Braves are located near the bottom. But that doesn’t mean it plays out the same for the other 26 clubs.
Let’s start with the New York Yankees, who currently own the 17th-best winning percentage in Major League Baseball. What happens when you take a vaunted bullpen featuring Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances out of the equation? As the above rankings indicate, the Pinstripes plummet from 17th to second-last in all of baseball, ahead of only the rebuilding Cincinnati Reds.
On the flip side, the Toronto Blue Jays skyrocket from the ninth-best overall record in Major League Baseball to third as it pertains to first five innings wagers, while the Miami Marlins rise from 11th to fifth, which should serve as an indicator to bettors that we may be able to abstract some value on Toronto and Miami moving forward.
Lastly, I’ll leave you with this: On Tuesday night in Cleveland, the Indians will play host to the Washington Nationals, providing the gambling world with a highly-anticipated showdown featuring two of the best first five innings clubs in the business. But here’s the catch: Washington will trot Gio Gonzalez out to the mound on Tuesday, a 30-year-old left-hander who boasts an ERA of 4.18 in innings 1-5 this season. Meanwhile, Cleveland will turn to Cy Young candidate Danny Salazar, who has surrendered a grand total of just 22 earned runs in innings 1-5 this season, good for an ERA of 2.22.
Salazar and the Indians it is.
Cleveland's Danny Salazar has surrendered a grand total of just 22 earned runs in innings 1-5 this season, good for an ERA of 2.22.
We live in an era of specialization. From politics to sports to religion to education, any cursory romp through the internet utilizing any of the aforementioned topics as search criteria will no doubt produce hundreds, if not thousands, of various websites and articles designed to answer your wildest query.
Hell, type in the phrase, “Expecting father,” and within seconds you’ll be inundated with dozens of blogs designed solely in the art of educating men who find themselves counting down the days until the birth of their first child.
This era of specialization applies to sports betting as well. Blogs, websites, databases, podcasts, live chats - you name it. Never before in the course of human history has so much information been so readily available at such breakneck speeds.
Which is why this next part may come as a bit of a surprise.
Tell me, for those of us interested in researching MLB first five innings data, where do we go? Where exactly can I find the first five innings records for all Major League Baseball clubs in 2016? What about data in regards to first five innings totals? Are we asking too much?
Simply put, the sports betting and baseball realms of the internet have been asleep at the wheel in regards to this data. And it’s a damn shame because in this age of specialization, nothing fits the bill in regards to baseball wagering quite like beating the bookmakers in the first five innings department.
An aside for the uninitiated: A "first five innings wager" (side or total) is exactly what it sounds like. Instead of betting a full baseball game, your wager is scored at the completion of five innings rather than nine innings (or extra innings). This type of wager appeals to many because it essentially eliminates the necessity of handicapping each team’s bullpen by reducing the game to starting pitcher vs. starting pitcher. Additionally, this type of specialized bet permits for a more focused assessment of integral splits, such as right-handed pitchers vs. left-handed batters and vice versa.
So after a research-filled weekend of scouring the deepest and darkest corners of the internet, here is a breakdown of every MLB team’s record in first five innings bets this season:
2016 MLB FIRST FIVE INNINGS RECORDS
*As of Sunday morning, July 24
1. Chicago Cubs: 54-29-13 (.650)
2. Cleveland Indians: 55-32-9 (.632)
3. Toronto Blue Jays: 57-34-7 (.626)
4. Washington Nationals: 45-30-23 (.600)
5. Miami Marlins: 45-34-18 (.569)
T6. San Francisco Giants: 47-36-14 (.566)
T6. Los Angeles Dodgers: 47-36-16 (.566)
8. Boston Red Sox: 45-36-14 (.555)
9. St. Louis Cardinals: 44-39-14 (.530)
10. Pittsburgh Pirates: 45-40-12 (.529)
11. Seattle Mariners: 42-38-17 (.525)
12. Baltimore Orioles: 44-40-12 (.523)
13. Texas Rangers: 43-40-15 (.518)
T14. New York Mets: 44-41-11 (.517)
T14. Chicago White Sox: 44-41-11 (.517)
16. Houston Astros: 43-41-13 (.511)
17. Detroit Tigers: 44-43-10 (.505)
18. Kansas City Royals: 39-44-13 (.469)
19. Milwaukee Brewers: 39-45-11 (.464)
20. Tampa Bay Rays: 37-46-14 (.445)
21. Colorado Rockies: 38-48-11 (.441)
22. Los Angeles Angels: 37-47-13 (.440)
23. Philadelphia Phillies: 33-44-22 (.428)
24. Arizona Diamondbacks: 37-51-9 (.420)
25. Minnesota Twins: 34-47-16 (.419)
26. San Diego Padres: 38-53-7 (.417)
27. Oakland Athletics: 34-48-16 (.414)
28. Atlanta Braves: 33-47-18 (.412)
29. New York Yankees: 33-48-16 (.407)
30. Cincinnati Reds: 34-56-7 (.377)
Granted, there aren’t a plethora of surprises here, as quality franchises like the Cubs and Indians find themselves at the top while disasters such as the Reds and Braves are located near the bottom. But that doesn’t mean it plays out the same for the other 26 clubs.
Let’s start with the New York Yankees, who currently own the 17th-best winning percentage in Major League Baseball. What happens when you take a vaunted bullpen featuring Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances out of the equation? As the above rankings indicate, the Pinstripes plummet from 17th to second-last in all of baseball, ahead of only the rebuilding Cincinnati Reds.
On the flip side, the Toronto Blue Jays skyrocket from the ninth-best overall record in Major League Baseball to third as it pertains to first five innings wagers, while the Miami Marlins rise from 11th to fifth, which should serve as an indicator to bettors that we may be able to abstract some value on Toronto and Miami moving forward.
Lastly, I’ll leave you with this: On Tuesday night in Cleveland, the Indians will play host to the Washington Nationals, providing the gambling world with a highly-anticipated showdown featuring two of the best first five innings clubs in the business. But here’s the catch: Washington will trot Gio Gonzalez out to the mound on Tuesday, a 30-year-old left-hander who boasts an ERA of 4.18 in innings 1-5 this season. Meanwhile, Cleveland will turn to Cy Young candidate Danny Salazar, who has surrendered a grand total of just 22 earned runs in innings 1-5 this season, good for an ERA of 2.22.
Salazar and the Indians it is.
