MLB Daily Line Drive: Monday's picks, betting odds and analysis
Double-Play Picks
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies (+130, 9.5)
The Astros and Phillies open a three-game interleague series Monday evening in Philadelphia in a game that features a rather surprising line move.
Houston opened as -160 road favorites and the road team's moneyline has spent the majority of this morning dropping. We locked the Astros in at -140 and would be surprised to see it get any lower.
Brad Peacock gets the ball for the Astros this evening and he has been terrific all season with an 8-1 record to go along with an ERA of 2.49. Houston has won his last five road starts as well as his last five outings overall (1.82 ERA).
Vince Velasquez gets the ball for the Phillies and, although he has been decent over his last three starts (0-1, 2.19 ERA), at home this season he is only 1-3 with an ERA of 6.26 and an opponent's on base percentage of .347.
While losing Carlos Correa to an injured thumb last week is a significant blow to the Astros' lineup, they are still baseball's top road team at 35-12 and they are taking on the Phillies who are baseball's worst home team at 18-26.
Pick: Astros -140
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-110, 9)
The Orioles and Rays open a three-game divisional battle in Tampa Bay tonight. It feels like these two team have played each other about 40 times already this season - it turns out that tonight will only be the tenth head-to-head meeting.
The Orioles, of course, are no longer on their historic streak of allowing five runs or more in a million consecutive games, but their pitching staff is still an absolute dumpster fire. Their team ERA of 5.16 and team opponent's batting average of .281 is certainly not going to win them any awards, win them many baseball games, or cash many Under tickets.
Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the O's today and...errr...well...yuck. Gausman owns an ERA of 6.11 this season with a WHIP of 1.75 in 21 starts. Over his last three outings his ERA is 9.69 and in nine starts on the road this season he has an ERA of 7.98, a WHIP of 2.01 and an opponent's on base percentage of .421.
Left-hander Blake Snell takes the ball today for the Rays and he has had a really weird season. He has either pitched really well and the bullpen has blown games for him, or he's looked like one of the most hittable starting pitchers in all of baseball. He is 0-5 with an ERA of 4.98 in 11 starts this season and his ERA at home is a lofty 5.40 with an average runs per game of 10.50.
The simple fact is that the Orioles are a pretty good offensive team with a terrible pitching staff - that equals Overs. The Over has cashed in the O's last six games overall and also in their last six games played at Tropicana Field against the Rays.
Pick: Over 9
Yesterday's Picks: 0-1-1
Season To Date: 95-84-9
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (11-3, 3.37 ERA, $443)
Sunday was a horrible day to be an ace starting pitcher as both Clayton Kershaw (yesterday's Streaking Starter) and Stephen Strasburg went down with injuries that will cause them to miss some time. The Mets are certainly hoping that there isn't a trend developing - they've had enough injury issues on their roster already.
The Mets have won deGrom's last seven starts and over those 53.2 innings pitched he has only allowed nine earned runs (1.51 ERA) and owns a WHIP of a very impressive 0.82.
deGrom and the Mets are a chalky -165 on the road in San Diego tonight.
Slumping: Bartolo Colon, Minnesota Twins (2-9, 8.19 ERA, $-211)
This might be it. If Bartolo Colon gets beat around by the Dodgers tonight this could be the last we see of "Big Sexy" on a major league mound. Today will be his second start since being picked up by the Twins and there were rumors following his first unsuccessful outing as a Twin that he was considering waddling away from the game.
Over Colon's last 10 starts he owns an ERA of 10.26 and a WHIP of 2.186. He's simply very hittable at this stage of his career (79 hits allowed in last 43 innings pitched) and he's no longer capable of pitching beyond five innings. He's taking a roster spot from a kid in the minors who deserves it more - and he knows this.
Colon and the Twins are big +210 underdogs tonight in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.
Monday's Top Trends
* The Houston Astros are 15-3 in their last 18 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. -140 today @ Phillies (Velasquez).
* The Colorado Rockies are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter. +125 today @ Cardinals (Leake).
* The Arizona Diamondbacks are 11-1 in Greinke's last 12 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. -200 today vs. Braves.
* The Minnesota Twins are 4-23 in their last 27 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. +210 today @ Dodgers.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
The only precipitation expected from today's baseball forecast is in Philadelphia where the Phillies are scheduled to host the Astros. There is a 35-50 percent chance of thunderstorm all evening at Citizens Bank Park.
There is a 11-13 mile per hour wind expected to be blowing out to right-center this evening at Comerica Park in Detroit where the Tigers will welcome the Royals. The total is currently set at 9.
There will be a stiff breeze (16-18 miles per hour) blowing in from left-center field tonight at Progressive Field in Cleveland for the game between the Indians and Reds. The total is at 9.5.
Our regular check of the wind at Wrigley Field in Chicago shows a 12-15 mile per hour wind blowing in from left-center field for today's cross-town battle between the Cubs and the White Sox. The total for this afternoon's game is 8.
Double-Play Picks
Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies (+130, 9.5)
The Astros and Phillies open a three-game interleague series Monday evening in Philadelphia in a game that features a rather surprising line move.
Houston opened as -160 road favorites and the road team's moneyline has spent the majority of this morning dropping. We locked the Astros in at -140 and would be surprised to see it get any lower.
Brad Peacock gets the ball for the Astros this evening and he has been terrific all season with an 8-1 record to go along with an ERA of 2.49. Houston has won his last five road starts as well as his last five outings overall (1.82 ERA).
Vince Velasquez gets the ball for the Phillies and, although he has been decent over his last three starts (0-1, 2.19 ERA), at home this season he is only 1-3 with an ERA of 6.26 and an opponent's on base percentage of .347.
While losing Carlos Correa to an injured thumb last week is a significant blow to the Astros' lineup, they are still baseball's top road team at 35-12 and they are taking on the Phillies who are baseball's worst home team at 18-26.
Pick: Astros -140
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-110, 9)
The Orioles and Rays open a three-game divisional battle in Tampa Bay tonight. It feels like these two team have played each other about 40 times already this season - it turns out that tonight will only be the tenth head-to-head meeting.
The Orioles, of course, are no longer on their historic streak of allowing five runs or more in a million consecutive games, but their pitching staff is still an absolute dumpster fire. Their team ERA of 5.16 and team opponent's batting average of .281 is certainly not going to win them any awards, win them many baseball games, or cash many Under tickets.
Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the O's today and...errr...well...yuck. Gausman owns an ERA of 6.11 this season with a WHIP of 1.75 in 21 starts. Over his last three outings his ERA is 9.69 and in nine starts on the road this season he has an ERA of 7.98, a WHIP of 2.01 and an opponent's on base percentage of .421.
Left-hander Blake Snell takes the ball today for the Rays and he has had a really weird season. He has either pitched really well and the bullpen has blown games for him, or he's looked like one of the most hittable starting pitchers in all of baseball. He is 0-5 with an ERA of 4.98 in 11 starts this season and his ERA at home is a lofty 5.40 with an average runs per game of 10.50.
The simple fact is that the Orioles are a pretty good offensive team with a terrible pitching staff - that equals Overs. The Over has cashed in the O's last six games overall and also in their last six games played at Tropicana Field against the Rays.
Pick: Over 9
Yesterday's Picks: 0-1-1
Season To Date: 95-84-9
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (11-3, 3.37 ERA, $443)
Sunday was a horrible day to be an ace starting pitcher as both Clayton Kershaw (yesterday's Streaking Starter) and Stephen Strasburg went down with injuries that will cause them to miss some time. The Mets are certainly hoping that there isn't a trend developing - they've had enough injury issues on their roster already.
The Mets have won deGrom's last seven starts and over those 53.2 innings pitched he has only allowed nine earned runs (1.51 ERA) and owns a WHIP of a very impressive 0.82.
deGrom and the Mets are a chalky -165 on the road in San Diego tonight.
Slumping: Bartolo Colon, Minnesota Twins (2-9, 8.19 ERA, $-211)
This might be it. If Bartolo Colon gets beat around by the Dodgers tonight this could be the last we see of "Big Sexy" on a major league mound. Today will be his second start since being picked up by the Twins and there were rumors following his first unsuccessful outing as a Twin that he was considering waddling away from the game.
Over Colon's last 10 starts he owns an ERA of 10.26 and a WHIP of 2.186. He's simply very hittable at this stage of his career (79 hits allowed in last 43 innings pitched) and he's no longer capable of pitching beyond five innings. He's taking a roster spot from a kid in the minors who deserves it more - and he knows this.
Colon and the Twins are big +210 underdogs tonight in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.
Monday's Top Trends
* The Houston Astros are 15-3 in their last 18 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. -140 today @ Phillies (Velasquez).
* The Colorado Rockies are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter. +125 today @ Cardinals (Leake).
* The Arizona Diamondbacks are 11-1 in Greinke's last 12 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. -200 today vs. Braves.
* The Minnesota Twins are 4-23 in their last 27 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. +210 today @ Dodgers.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
The only precipitation expected from today's baseball forecast is in Philadelphia where the Phillies are scheduled to host the Astros. There is a 35-50 percent chance of thunderstorm all evening at Citizens Bank Park.
There is a 11-13 mile per hour wind expected to be blowing out to right-center this evening at Comerica Park in Detroit where the Tigers will welcome the Royals. The total is currently set at 9.
There will be a stiff breeze (16-18 miles per hour) blowing in from left-center field tonight at Progressive Field in Cleveland for the game between the Indians and Reds. The total is at 9.5.
Our regular check of the wind at Wrigley Field in Chicago shows a 12-15 mile per hour wind blowing in from left-center field for today's cross-town battle between the Cubs and the White Sox. The total for this afternoon's game is 8.
Bob Balfe
Astros -145
Houston has the edge in every single phase of the game. This is an Astros team that is excellent on the road going against a team that has no advantage when they are in front of their home crowd. Peacock has been brilliant this year and has really looked sharp in his last couple of starts. The money line is about as high as we will ever go, but the talent from top to bottom belongs to Houston.
Astros -145
Houston has the edge in every single phase of the game. This is an Astros team that is excellent on the road going against a team that has no advantage when they are in front of their home crowd. Peacock has been brilliant this year and has really looked sharp in his last couple of starts. The money line is about as high as we will ever go, but the talent from top to bottom belongs to Houston.
Handicappers Hub
Pirates vs. Giants
Play
irates -149
Cole is starting to pitch like himself going 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts and this is a huge week for the Pirates as they try to gain ground in the NL Central. Meanwhile, Cain is just 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts and I look for the Pirates to jump all over Cain and get the W tonight on the road!
Pirates vs. Giants
Play
irates -149Cole is starting to pitch like himself going 1-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts and this is a huge week for the Pirates as they try to gain ground in the NL Central. Meanwhile, Cain is just 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts and I look for the Pirates to jump all over Cain and get the W tonight on the road!
Eric Schroeder
My Bonus Play for tonight is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Tampa Bay Rays, as I like the road team in what could very well be a pitching mismatch.
I love hearing the phrase "Kevin Gausman has been inconsistent" this season. Every time this is brought up, the fire-balling LSU-product brings heat and stymies foes. He is in after allowing one run over six innings while striking out eight Texas hitters.
The last time the right-hander faced these Rays was on July 2, when he threw seven scoreless innings and recorded nine strikeouts. He'll go in with confidence here.
On the flipside, Snell has struggled to provide any sort of durability since arriving in Tampa Bay in 2016. In that span he's logged 19 career starts of five innings or fewer, which ranks as the most by any pitcher on the junior circuit, within their first 30 career games.
Take the O's here, and list both.
5* ORIOLES
My Bonus Play for tonight is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Tampa Bay Rays, as I like the road team in what could very well be a pitching mismatch.
I love hearing the phrase "Kevin Gausman has been inconsistent" this season. Every time this is brought up, the fire-balling LSU-product brings heat and stymies foes. He is in after allowing one run over six innings while striking out eight Texas hitters.
The last time the right-hander faced these Rays was on July 2, when he threw seven scoreless innings and recorded nine strikeouts. He'll go in with confidence here.
On the flipside, Snell has struggled to provide any sort of durability since arriving in Tampa Bay in 2016. In that span he's logged 19 career starts of five innings or fewer, which ranks as the most by any pitcher on the junior circuit, within their first 30 career games.
Take the O's here, and list both.
5* ORIOLES
Jack Brayman
Yesterday I told you the Cleveland Indians would win on the Run Line, and sure enough they blasted the Toronto Blue Jays, 8-1. Tonight I want you playing the Arizona Diamondbacks on the Run Line, over the visiting Atlanta Braves.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Zack Greinke and R.A. Dickey. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
How do you not side with one of the most dominant pitchers in the game? Greinke is 11-4 with a 2.97 ERA in 19 starts, and makes his second start in 17 days.
He has been aching to get back on the mound, and will dominate for the Snakes against visiting Atlanta. He is only 2-1 with a 3.07 ERA in seven career starts against the Braves, but that won't matter, as the Braves hitters don't realize what he deals.
Take Arizona run line tonight.
1* DIAMONDBACKS -1.5
Yesterday I told you the Cleveland Indians would win on the Run Line, and sure enough they blasted the Toronto Blue Jays, 8-1. Tonight I want you playing the Arizona Diamondbacks on the Run Line, over the visiting Atlanta Braves.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Zack Greinke and R.A. Dickey. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
How do you not side with one of the most dominant pitchers in the game? Greinke is 11-4 with a 2.97 ERA in 19 starts, and makes his second start in 17 days.
He has been aching to get back on the mound, and will dominate for the Snakes against visiting Atlanta. He is only 2-1 with a 3.07 ERA in seven career starts against the Braves, but that won't matter, as the Braves hitters don't realize what he deals.
Take Arizona run line tonight.
1* DIAMONDBACKS -1.5
Rob Vinciletti
Mets at Padres
Play: Mets
The Mets have won 4 of 5 and are 8-2 on the road off a home loss scoring 4 or less runs. Tonight they fit a powerful system that plays on road favorites at -140 or more off a 1 run home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs vs an opponent off a road game. these teams are cashing 91% long term. The Mets have Degrom on the mound and have won his last 7 starts. Degrom has a 1.80 era vs SD. C. Richard for the Padres has a 5.49 home era and an 8.00 eras in his last 3 starts. The Padres are 1-4 as a home dog in this range. Look for the Mets to take the opener.
Mets at Padres
Play: Mets
The Mets have won 4 of 5 and are 8-2 on the road off a home loss scoring 4 or less runs. Tonight they fit a powerful system that plays on road favorites at -140 or more off a 1 run home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs vs an opponent off a road game. these teams are cashing 91% long term. The Mets have Degrom on the mound and have won his last 7 starts. Degrom has a 1.80 era vs SD. C. Richard for the Padres has a 5.49 home era and an 8.00 eras in his last 3 starts. The Padres are 1-4 as a home dog in this range. Look for the Mets to take the opener.
Frank Sawyer
Jul 24 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | Orioles vs Rays
Play on: Orioles -102 at 5Dimes
Take the Baltimore Orioles with the money-line versus the the Tampa Bay Rays listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Blake Snell. Baltimore (47-51) has won 5 of their last 7 games after their 9-7 victory last night. The Orioles have won a decisive 71 of their last 118 situations where they were money-line favorites in the -100 to -150 price range. Tampa Bay (51-48) has lost 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record. And while the Rays are looking to 7-1 loss at Baltimore in their last encounter back on July 2nd — and they have then lost 12 of their last 14 games when looking to avenge a loss on the road by at least six runs. Take Baltimore with the money-line while listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.
Jul 24 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | Orioles vs Rays
Play on: Orioles -102 at 5Dimes
Take the Baltimore Orioles with the money-line versus the the Tampa Bay Rays listing both starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Blake Snell. Baltimore (47-51) has won 5 of their last 7 games after their 9-7 victory last night. The Orioles have won a decisive 71 of their last 118 situations where they were money-line favorites in the -100 to -150 price range. Tampa Bay (51-48) has lost 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record. And while the Rays are looking to 7-1 loss at Baltimore in their last encounter back on July 2nd — and they have then lost 12 of their last 14 games when looking to avenge a loss on the road by at least six runs. Take Baltimore with the money-line while listing both starting pitchers. Best of luck — Frank.
