Monday’s MLB Tip Sheet
by Matt Zylbert
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs | 8:05 p.m. ET
Coming off a start in which he uncharacteristically allowed a season-high four runs at home, you can bet Clayton Kershaw (5-4, 3.29 ERA) has been itching all week for his next assignment, which is slated for game one of this four-game series at Wrigley Field between two legitimate contenders in the National League. It’s been a bit of a frustrating year for the reigning NL MVP and Cy Young award-winner, even though most pitchers would love to have his current overall numbers, but up to this point, Kershaw has already surrendered 34 earned runs — which is just five less than the 39 he gave up all of last season in 198.1 innings pitched — and he’s already matched last year’s total of home runs allowed with nine. At the same time, he still often flashes the incredible dominance that we’ve grown accustomed to, as evident in his 122/23 K/BB ratio thus far in his 93 innings of work. He’s actually one strikeout behind Max Scherzer for the MLB-lead, and that would indicate that Kershaw is still the same remarkably dependable ace that he’s been over the past handful of seasons. Of note, he’ll be taking on the offense that leads the NL in K’s.
Opposing the Dodger left-hander is a fellow southpaw who has impressed since being called up to the big leagues, Tsuyoshi Wada (1-1, 3.68 ERA), making his seventh start of the season. Wada looked good last year as a rookie — a 33-year-old rookie, that is, after his lengthy stint pitching in Japan and for their national team — when he finished 4-4 with a 3.25 ERA, and has picked up where he left off after replacing Travis Wood in the rotation. He’s coming off his best performance of the season, when he fired seven shutout innings and struck out six in Cleveland, and now draws an assignment against a lineup that ranks 23rd in OPS (.680) opposing left-handed pitching. Those infamous strong Wrigley winds will be blowing out, however, which could affect each pitcher. The linesmakers haven’t released the over/under line just yet, while Kershaw is a -170 road favorite.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees | 7:05 p.m. ET
When you do this for so many years on a daily basis, it feels good being able to talk about a veteran journeyman pitcher that everyone thought was done and had faded into obscurity. Kevin Correia (0-1, 1.69 ERA) fits that bill, who is making just his third start of the year after finishing 7-17 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.50 WHIP across two different teams in 2014. With the Phillies sporting a nightmarish rotation, which is now significantly worse with ace Cole Hamels injured, Correia has been shot into duty, and he actually hasn’t been bad in his first couple of starts. However, as someone who pitches to contact and records a low number of strikeouts, he might be in for a long day at the office against the hard-hitting Yankees in the Bronx, which could yield a lot of home runs. Correia has given up two so far.
His counterpart this evening, Michael Pineda (8-3, 3.54 ERA), is certainly someone that doesn’t pitch to contact. Hence why he owns 87 strikeouts in 81.1 innings of work, compared to just 11 walks on the year for one of the best K/BB ratios in all of baseball. He’s coming off a nine-strikeout gem in six-plus frames, holding the Marlins to one run on only one hit in the process, so if he’s in his rhythm, Philadelphia may have no shot. They did pull off the huge upset yesterday against Michael Wacha as +175 home ‘dogs, but can they do it in back-to-back days? Not to mention with soft-throwing Correia on the mound going up against a stud the caliber of Pineda. As a result, the Yankees are whopping -285 favorites. The over/under line, meanwhile, is curiously low at 7.5.
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners | 10:10 p.m. ET
It’s always a notable event when “The King” himself, Felix Hernandez (10-3, 3.08 ERA), takes center stage at Safeco Field before his unique and adoring “King’s Court” in attendance. What certainly was a notable event was ten days ago, when Hernandez suffered the worst start of his career, getting absolutely pounded in Houston as he was only able to record one out, while giving up eight runs. Fortunately for the former AL Cy Young winner, Hernandez bounced back his last time out with eight shutout innings against the Giants at home, and appears to be back on track. If that’s the case, you can anticipate his usual greatness, as Hernandez has given up two runs or less in 10 of his 14 starts. He’s a -160 favorite, and Seattle is 11-3 in games he’s started.
It won’t be that easy, though, as King Felix is tasked with facing the team that leads baseball in team batting average (.274). Plus, they’ll have a serviceable veteran on the hill, Joe Blanton (1-0, 1.80 ERA), who could keep them in the ballgame, if his first start was any indication. After a stint as the club’s long reliever, Blanton made his first start as a member of the Royals, amassing five shutout innings against the Brewers last Wednesday, striking out four and walking none. In any case, the over/under is currently set at 6.5, mostly because of King Felix’s amazing numbers at home over the years.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins | 8:10 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Guess who the worst team in baseball is against left-handed pitching… the Chicago White Sox. And it’s really not even close, as the Pale Hose are last in team batting average (.207), on-base percentage (.252), and slugging percentage (.285) opposing southpaws, adding up to a putrid .536 OPS, which is nearly a full 100 points behind the team in second-to-last (Braves, .619). With one of my top sleepers entering the 2015 campaign, left-hander Tommy Milone (3-1, 3.67 ERA), set to toe the rubber for the Twins, you have to like his outlook tonight, as he’s made three starts since being recalled from the minors, and has given up two runs or less in all of them, while producing a 13/2 K/BB ratio in his 19 innings of work. He’s a -140 home favorite as a result at Target Field.
Facing him is a bit of a similar lefty, John Danks (3-7, 5.16 ERA), but one who is largely inconsistent. Some days, Danks will have his stuff working, which was certainly the case when he surprisingly spun a complete game shutout on the Astros at the very end of May. Or, he’ll get roughed up, like in the two ensuing starts after that one when he yielded ten runs combined. It makes him a tough pitcher to handicap, as you don’t really know what you’re going to get. He’s somehow been a consistent friend for under bettors, though, posting a 8-3-2 record towards ‘under’ bets this season despite his paltry numbers. The line for this one has opened up at 8.5.
