Tony Finn
(251) Philadelphia Phillies at (252) Miami Marlins
MLB
Date/Time: May 29, 2017 1PM EDT
Play: Miami Marlins -145
One of my Free Picks to Click today comes from South Beach where the Fish are hosting the Phillies.
Phils’ starter Hellickson had an unsustainable 1.80 ERA in April which morphed into a 7.30 ERA in May; Continued regression is in order.
Hellickson's velocity differential between his fastball and changeup is negligible this season, the right-hander has a ridiculously low 6% Swinging Strike percentage, a career high hard contact rat of 31% and fly ball heavier than at any point in his career.
Marlins starter Volquez (0-7, 4.82 ERA) earns his first win of the season and positive regression takes hold. Eddy V has a solid SIERA and has increased most of his mission critical underlying peripherals after a switch from the AL to the NL.
(251) Philadelphia Phillies at (252) Miami Marlins
MLB
Date/Time: May 29, 2017 1PM EDT
Play: Miami Marlins -145
One of my Free Picks to Click today comes from South Beach where the Fish are hosting the Phillies.
Phils’ starter Hellickson had an unsustainable 1.80 ERA in April which morphed into a 7.30 ERA in May; Continued regression is in order.
Hellickson's velocity differential between his fastball and changeup is negligible this season, the right-hander has a ridiculously low 6% Swinging Strike percentage, a career high hard contact rat of 31% and fly ball heavier than at any point in his career.
Marlins starter Volquez (0-7, 4.82 ERA) earns his first win of the season and positive regression takes hold. Eddy V has a solid SIERA and has increased most of his mission critical underlying peripherals after a switch from the AL to the NL.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -½ +106 over Nashville
Regulation only. There are many ways to bet this series and we’re going to try and capitalize on a series we trust will not be close, which is not an opinion based on several things. First, if so inclined, one could bet the team and the exact number of games that they’ll win the series in. The sharpest sportsbook on the planet, Pinnacle, has Pittsburgh in five games as the shortest price of every possible outcome. That’s the first sign that this series will not be close and it’s really the only sign needed.
Next, we have Nashville’s layoff. You might remember that during the regular season, each team was given a bye week and upon returning, 95% of them played like trash. Nashville hasn’t played a game in seven days while Pittsburgh has had the perfect layoff time, having defeated Ottawa on Thursday, thus giving them the weekend off or three full days to recover. That’s plenty. Furthermore, the Penguins have been absolutely dominating since Matt Murray took over from Marc Andre Fleury. They also dominated last year when Murray took over full time. In last year’s Cup finals, Pittsburgh steamrolled over a highly experienced and motivated Sharks’ squad and this year’s edition of the Pens might even be better. While we take nothing away from Nashville, we trust that they’re simply ill-prepped to take this next step, which is covered in detail in our Future Wager bet found here. If you like, you could also play Pittsburgh -1½ games +137, which essentially means that if they win in six games or less, you’ll cash your ticket.
The Penguins have been written off many times this year and we’re guilty of writing them off too against both Washington and Ottawa but adversity reveals character and now the Penguins are healthier than they’ve been all season long. They are also wickedly determined and talented. The opposition not only has to deal with all that firepower and talent but they also have to deal with all that experience, great coaching and great goaltending.
As for the Preds, well, do you like stories about barbecues and country music? You better, because you’re going to get a heaping plate of both once this series gets taken over by Pittsburgh, which is likely going to happen right away. Heavy lean to the Penguins in this series and we’ll try to capitalize throughout.
PITTSBURGH -½ +106 over Nashville
Regulation only. There are many ways to bet this series and we’re going to try and capitalize on a series we trust will not be close, which is not an opinion based on several things. First, if so inclined, one could bet the team and the exact number of games that they’ll win the series in. The sharpest sportsbook on the planet, Pinnacle, has Pittsburgh in five games as the shortest price of every possible outcome. That’s the first sign that this series will not be close and it’s really the only sign needed.
Next, we have Nashville’s layoff. You might remember that during the regular season, each team was given a bye week and upon returning, 95% of them played like trash. Nashville hasn’t played a game in seven days while Pittsburgh has had the perfect layoff time, having defeated Ottawa on Thursday, thus giving them the weekend off or three full days to recover. That’s plenty. Furthermore, the Penguins have been absolutely dominating since Matt Murray took over from Marc Andre Fleury. They also dominated last year when Murray took over full time. In last year’s Cup finals, Pittsburgh steamrolled over a highly experienced and motivated Sharks’ squad and this year’s edition of the Pens might even be better. While we take nothing away from Nashville, we trust that they’re simply ill-prepped to take this next step, which is covered in detail in our Future Wager bet found here. If you like, you could also play Pittsburgh -1½ games +137, which essentially means that if they win in six games or less, you’ll cash your ticket.
The Penguins have been written off many times this year and we’re guilty of writing them off too against both Washington and Ottawa but adversity reveals character and now the Penguins are healthier than they’ve been all season long. They are also wickedly determined and talented. The opposition not only has to deal with all that firepower and talent but they also have to deal with all that experience, great coaching and great goaltending.
As for the Preds, well, do you like stories about barbecues and country music? You better, because you’re going to get a heaping plate of both once this series gets taken over by Pittsburgh, which is likely going to happen right away. Heavy lean to the Penguins in this series and we’ll try to capitalize throughout.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO +161 over Boston
You are going to pay through the roof today to back Boston’s David Price and if he and the Red Sox win, a distinct possibility indeed, good for them. Frankly, the line here is preposterous and therefore the South Side must be played.
Price obviously is scheduled to be activated from the disabled list for this matinee start and it’ll be his first start of the year after rehabbing his pitching elbow. If you recall, Price had a rocky start in his Boston debut last year (6.75/5.52 ERA/xERA split in first seven games) and part of it was due to a nasty hit%/strand% and hr/f. Aside from that, his recent, rising xERA trend keeps him from being the cream of any crop anymore. Massive innings pitch history may also catch up. Price could very well get it all together and get back to being the reliable and consistently strong starter that he’s always been but it’s not going to happen overnight. Price’s two rehab starts were very similar in that they each featured four strikeouts, one walk and three earned runs but the first start only lasted two innings while the second went 3.2 innings. He also gave up 12 hits in those two starts, which further reveals the big risk in backing him. Price is not likely to go deep into this start so Boston’s pen will likely be in their by the third or fourth inning, if Price lasts that long.
Another reason Boston is heavily favored here is because the South Side is forced to lean on David Holmberg for a spot start or two after Dylan Covey landed on the DL. Holmberg has appeared in eight games this year, all in relief, covering 10 innings and comes in with a 0.87 ERA. However, in his previous 12 career MLB starts with Cincinnati and Arizona, his ERA/xERA split was 6.62/6.13. Holmberg is a career minor-leaguer with 1000 minor league innings under his belt since 2009 but he’s just 25-years-old. He’s mostly been in a starter in the minors with 168 of his 182 appearances being starts so this is a kid that has paid his dues.
Holmberg has a good sinking fastball that reaches the low 90s, along with an average slider and a low-80s changeup that is plus. The 6'3", 245-pounder can use his height to pound low in the zone and force ground balls, but when he loses command, he can be roughed up as he was the past two years in Cinci. There’s a good chance he’ll be roughed up again but perhaps he’s finally found his footing after being a second round pick way back in 2009. Holmberg comes at hitters with his three-pitch arsenal and perhaps his small sample success this year with provide him with the confidence to be aggressive. One or both of these starters could and likely will get torched today but David Price is a big favorite that is just as likely to get whacked as David Holmberg is. That’s value.
Arizona +100 over PITTSBURGH
For a small-market team like the Pirates, economics are always a concern. The team has sought to lock in promising young players to long-term contracts, delaying their eligibility for arbitration and free agency. But it’s only a delay. From reclamation projects like Ricky Martin to local heroes like Neil Walker, the day of reckoning eventually comes. So personnel turnover is going to be a constant feature of clubs like the Pirates. What makes this transition so jarring is that it comes after the 10th-most wins (280) over a three-year run in franchise history, following 20 years of wandering in the wilderness.
However, the tone for this Pirates’ team was set back in spring training when Andrew McCutchen, the team leader, starting whining. McCutchen is the Pirates’ best and most beloved player since the retirement of Willie Stargell but everyone in that Pirates locker room know he’s out the door after this season. His ambiguous comments about his move from centerfield to right suggested immediately that even if the economics of his next contract weren’t a concern, he would be inclined to move on anyway. McCutchen plays everyday but he may as well not be, as he’s there in body only and it’s rubbed off on everyone. The Pirates are perhaps the most beatable team in MLB and perhaps the least motivated too or at least they play like it. The fact that Pittsburgh is favored over the Diamondbacks here makes Arizona an instant play.
Trevor Williams (2-3, 5.93 ERA) replaced James Taillon in the Pirates rotation when the latter was placed on the disabled list and has gone 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA filing in. Those aren’t fantastic numbers and are worse than the figures Williams put up as a long reliever earlier in the season but they do compare favorable to some of the other Pirates’ starters. That’s how messed up this entire Pirates pitching staff is. Williams’ mound opponent will be in a similar situation. Randall Delgado was forced into a starting role when Taijuan Walker landed on the disabled list with a blister on his right index finger on May 21.
Delgado has made some spots starts over the years but hasn’t been a regular member of a rotation since 2013 when he went 5-7 with a 4.26 ERA in 19 starts. He will be making his 50th major league start and the way he handled his last one gave manager Torey Lovullo the confidence to give him the ball again. He’s been locked in and throwing the ball very well,” Lovullo said to Arizona Sports after making the decision on Friday. His last time out, Delgado pitched four innings and allowed two runs (one earned) against the White Sox on Wednesday. He set season highs in innings pitched and pitches thrown (61) after appearing in 15 relief appearances. Delgado can pile up tons of strikeouts. He has two of the most dominant pitches in the game (29% swing and miss rate on his changeup and a 25% swing and miss rate on his slider). We’re not just talking about this year either. Delgado has been throwing filthy stuff for quite some time and now he’s throwing for strikes. In 31 innings this season, Delgado has a BB/K split of 6/27. He is missing bats at an elite clip (13%) and attacking hitters early in counts (65% first-pitch strike rate) and we’re not about to miss this opportunity to fade the Pirates when we have the superior team and pitcher by a wide margin and the more motivated team too. Invest.
Seattle -1½ +215 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
CHICAGO +161 over Boston
You are going to pay through the roof today to back Boston’s David Price and if he and the Red Sox win, a distinct possibility indeed, good for them. Frankly, the line here is preposterous and therefore the South Side must be played.
Price obviously is scheduled to be activated from the disabled list for this matinee start and it’ll be his first start of the year after rehabbing his pitching elbow. If you recall, Price had a rocky start in his Boston debut last year (6.75/5.52 ERA/xERA split in first seven games) and part of it was due to a nasty hit%/strand% and hr/f. Aside from that, his recent, rising xERA trend keeps him from being the cream of any crop anymore. Massive innings pitch history may also catch up. Price could very well get it all together and get back to being the reliable and consistently strong starter that he’s always been but it’s not going to happen overnight. Price’s two rehab starts were very similar in that they each featured four strikeouts, one walk and three earned runs but the first start only lasted two innings while the second went 3.2 innings. He also gave up 12 hits in those two starts, which further reveals the big risk in backing him. Price is not likely to go deep into this start so Boston’s pen will likely be in their by the third or fourth inning, if Price lasts that long.
Another reason Boston is heavily favored here is because the South Side is forced to lean on David Holmberg for a spot start or two after Dylan Covey landed on the DL. Holmberg has appeared in eight games this year, all in relief, covering 10 innings and comes in with a 0.87 ERA. However, in his previous 12 career MLB starts with Cincinnati and Arizona, his ERA/xERA split was 6.62/6.13. Holmberg is a career minor-leaguer with 1000 minor league innings under his belt since 2009 but he’s just 25-years-old. He’s mostly been in a starter in the minors with 168 of his 182 appearances being starts so this is a kid that has paid his dues.
Holmberg has a good sinking fastball that reaches the low 90s, along with an average slider and a low-80s changeup that is plus. The 6'3", 245-pounder can use his height to pound low in the zone and force ground balls, but when he loses command, he can be roughed up as he was the past two years in Cinci. There’s a good chance he’ll be roughed up again but perhaps he’s finally found his footing after being a second round pick way back in 2009. Holmberg comes at hitters with his three-pitch arsenal and perhaps his small sample success this year with provide him with the confidence to be aggressive. One or both of these starters could and likely will get torched today but David Price is a big favorite that is just as likely to get whacked as David Holmberg is. That’s value.
Arizona +100 over PITTSBURGH
For a small-market team like the Pirates, economics are always a concern. The team has sought to lock in promising young players to long-term contracts, delaying their eligibility for arbitration and free agency. But it’s only a delay. From reclamation projects like Ricky Martin to local heroes like Neil Walker, the day of reckoning eventually comes. So personnel turnover is going to be a constant feature of clubs like the Pirates. What makes this transition so jarring is that it comes after the 10th-most wins (280) over a three-year run in franchise history, following 20 years of wandering in the wilderness.
However, the tone for this Pirates’ team was set back in spring training when Andrew McCutchen, the team leader, starting whining. McCutchen is the Pirates’ best and most beloved player since the retirement of Willie Stargell but everyone in that Pirates locker room know he’s out the door after this season. His ambiguous comments about his move from centerfield to right suggested immediately that even if the economics of his next contract weren’t a concern, he would be inclined to move on anyway. McCutchen plays everyday but he may as well not be, as he’s there in body only and it’s rubbed off on everyone. The Pirates are perhaps the most beatable team in MLB and perhaps the least motivated too or at least they play like it. The fact that Pittsburgh is favored over the Diamondbacks here makes Arizona an instant play.
Trevor Williams (2-3, 5.93 ERA) replaced James Taillon in the Pirates rotation when the latter was placed on the disabled list and has gone 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA filing in. Those aren’t fantastic numbers and are worse than the figures Williams put up as a long reliever earlier in the season but they do compare favorable to some of the other Pirates’ starters. That’s how messed up this entire Pirates pitching staff is. Williams’ mound opponent will be in a similar situation. Randall Delgado was forced into a starting role when Taijuan Walker landed on the disabled list with a blister on his right index finger on May 21.
Delgado has made some spots starts over the years but hasn’t been a regular member of a rotation since 2013 when he went 5-7 with a 4.26 ERA in 19 starts. He will be making his 50th major league start and the way he handled his last one gave manager Torey Lovullo the confidence to give him the ball again. He’s been locked in and throwing the ball very well,” Lovullo said to Arizona Sports after making the decision on Friday. His last time out, Delgado pitched four innings and allowed two runs (one earned) against the White Sox on Wednesday. He set season highs in innings pitched and pitches thrown (61) after appearing in 15 relief appearances. Delgado can pile up tons of strikeouts. He has two of the most dominant pitches in the game (29% swing and miss rate on his changeup and a 25% swing and miss rate on his slider). We’re not just talking about this year either. Delgado has been throwing filthy stuff for quite some time and now he’s throwing for strikes. In 31 innings this season, Delgado has a BB/K split of 6/27. He is missing bats at an elite clip (13%) and attacking hitters early in counts (65% first-pitch strike rate) and we’re not about to miss this opportunity to fade the Pirates when we have the superior team and pitcher by a wide margin and the more motivated team too. Invest.
Seattle -1½ +215 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Neil The Greek
Braves / Angels Under 8
It's funny what one guy to do to a lineup. Without Mike Trout, the Angels look more like the Angels in the outfield from the movie, then they do, major leaguers. I don't think he will be in the lineup for the Angels Monday night. So that means they will have to rely on Nolasco. Teheran is not having a good season, but mostly because of his pitching at home. He has been a stud on the road.
Braves / Angels Under 8
It's funny what one guy to do to a lineup. Without Mike Trout, the Angels look more like the Angels in the outfield from the movie, then they do, major leaguers. I don't think he will be in the lineup for the Angels Monday night. So that means they will have to rely on Nolasco. Teheran is not having a good season, but mostly because of his pitching at home. He has been a stud on the road.
The Prez
(969) Tampa Bay Rays at (970) Texas Rangers
MLB
Date/Time: May 29, 2017 8PM EDT
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +135
The Tampa Bay Rays continue to grind out wins that seemingly come with early runs, playing and pitching with leads and in simple terms... finding ways to take advantage of their opponents liabilities.
The Rays visit the Rangers with first pitch scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET on Memorial Day Monday at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas. The Rays send Erasmo Ramirez (3-0, 2.92 ERA) to the hill to oppose the Rangers Martin Perez (2-5, 3.77).
Courtesy of The Prez
Ramirez has settled into his starting gig with relative ease and most importantly, success. The Rays right-hander has allowed a mere two runs in each of his two starts since rejoining the rotation. Ramirez isn't going to overpower opposing lineups. He has walked just six hitters and struck out 27 in 37 innings registering a solid 0.86 WHIP. Ramirez was on the mound to finish Sunday's 15-inning marathon win over the Twins but he and his rubber arm will take the Globe Life mound for tonight's tilt against the home team Rangers.
Though the Rays used six of their seven relievers in yesterday's 15 inning win over Minnesota the club didn't make a roster move to add fresh arms from the farm. The plan is to give Ramirez, who threw 12 pitches in the 15th frame of Sunday's win, a chance to be a strike thrower tonight and complete 100 pitches.
Over the last two seasons Ramirez has found success by pitching to contact without the staunch overemphasis of strike outs, avoiding stress pitches per se, while inducing soft contact. The Rays right hander has increased his swing and miss percentage by changing arm angles and in the process has increased his ground ball ratio to 50 percent.
The Rangers send the scuffling Perez and his 2-5 record to the mound tonight against a Rays lineup that sits in the Top-5 of baseball in the category of hard contact versus left-handed pitching. The surface numbers for the Rays versus southpaws don't speak to their hard contact rate but does to their success in the win column. The Rays are uber aggressive in the early innings, and against lefties with a WHIP of 1.30 or larger, have found the win column in the standings 6 times more than registering a loss. The Rays have a batting average against -- in the aforementioned statistic, of .300 and have scored more first and second innings runs vs. southpaws than any team in the bigs.
Ramirez has survived by keeping the ball in the park. The Texas lefty has allowed only four homers in his 57 innings of work this season. His numbers are a bit deceiving when one examines his underlying peripherals and historically he has had little to no success against the Rays. Middle of the lineup Evan Longoria is hitting .500 lifetime against southpaw Perez who is a porous 0-2 in his career against Tampa Bay with a 5.33 ERA.
Perez is coming off a the highest pitch count in his new post-TJS career (2014), a 113-throw-and-catch affair at Fenway Park, this past Wednesday. The Texas rotation and bullpen have been stressed recently, primarily due to a poor road trip, and the injury to starter A.J. Griffin. Perez was pushed into an extra side session just in case he was a necessary arm due to the injury to Griffin (ribs) this past week.
The Rays struggles this season, at the plate, have come against power pitchers. The Tampa lineup is on a record-setting strikeout pace in 2017. The Rays have recorded an MLB-leading 538 team strikeouts as of Sunday's extra innings victory at Target Field. When facing pitchers that throw to contact (K:9 ratio of 6.00 or less) they have been a .600 club.
Memorial Day MLB Free Pick is a play on the underdog Tampa Bay Rays in Arlington tonight.
(969) Tampa Bay Rays at (970) Texas Rangers
MLB
Date/Time: May 29, 2017 8PM EDT
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +135
The Tampa Bay Rays continue to grind out wins that seemingly come with early runs, playing and pitching with leads and in simple terms... finding ways to take advantage of their opponents liabilities.
The Rays visit the Rangers with first pitch scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET on Memorial Day Monday at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas. The Rays send Erasmo Ramirez (3-0, 2.92 ERA) to the hill to oppose the Rangers Martin Perez (2-5, 3.77).
Courtesy of The Prez
Ramirez has settled into his starting gig with relative ease and most importantly, success. The Rays right-hander has allowed a mere two runs in each of his two starts since rejoining the rotation. Ramirez isn't going to overpower opposing lineups. He has walked just six hitters and struck out 27 in 37 innings registering a solid 0.86 WHIP. Ramirez was on the mound to finish Sunday's 15-inning marathon win over the Twins but he and his rubber arm will take the Globe Life mound for tonight's tilt against the home team Rangers.
Though the Rays used six of their seven relievers in yesterday's 15 inning win over Minnesota the club didn't make a roster move to add fresh arms from the farm. The plan is to give Ramirez, who threw 12 pitches in the 15th frame of Sunday's win, a chance to be a strike thrower tonight and complete 100 pitches.
Over the last two seasons Ramirez has found success by pitching to contact without the staunch overemphasis of strike outs, avoiding stress pitches per se, while inducing soft contact. The Rays right hander has increased his swing and miss percentage by changing arm angles and in the process has increased his ground ball ratio to 50 percent.
The Rangers send the scuffling Perez and his 2-5 record to the mound tonight against a Rays lineup that sits in the Top-5 of baseball in the category of hard contact versus left-handed pitching. The surface numbers for the Rays versus southpaws don't speak to their hard contact rate but does to their success in the win column. The Rays are uber aggressive in the early innings, and against lefties with a WHIP of 1.30 or larger, have found the win column in the standings 6 times more than registering a loss. The Rays have a batting average against -- in the aforementioned statistic, of .300 and have scored more first and second innings runs vs. southpaws than any team in the bigs.
Ramirez has survived by keeping the ball in the park. The Texas lefty has allowed only four homers in his 57 innings of work this season. His numbers are a bit deceiving when one examines his underlying peripherals and historically he has had little to no success against the Rays. Middle of the lineup Evan Longoria is hitting .500 lifetime against southpaw Perez who is a porous 0-2 in his career against Tampa Bay with a 5.33 ERA.
Perez is coming off a the highest pitch count in his new post-TJS career (2014), a 113-throw-and-catch affair at Fenway Park, this past Wednesday. The Texas rotation and bullpen have been stressed recently, primarily due to a poor road trip, and the injury to starter A.J. Griffin. Perez was pushed into an extra side session just in case he was a necessary arm due to the injury to Griffin (ribs) this past week.
The Rays struggles this season, at the plate, have come against power pitchers. The Tampa lineup is on a record-setting strikeout pace in 2017. The Rays have recorded an MLB-leading 538 team strikeouts as of Sunday's extra innings victory at Target Field. When facing pitchers that throw to contact (K:9 ratio of 6.00 or less) they have been a .600 club.
Memorial Day MLB Free Pick is a play on the underdog Tampa Bay Rays in Arlington tonight.
