SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +138 over CLEVELAND
Carlos Carrasco is the straight goods. He has a BB/K split of 8/46 over 48 innings and he also has a 1.86 ERA. This is now his fourth straight season in which he’s flashed elite skills across the board. Carrasco is as good as advertised. However, when we can get Tampa’s Chris Archer with a takeback like this, we’re not going to hesitate to grab it.
The total in this one is 7½, which is a puny number for an AL game in a hitter’s park. That tells us that one, two or three runs could win this one and it also tells us that it could be decided by the pens after both pitchers are long gone. That adds more appeal to the Rays. Furthermore, Cleveland’s offense has been completely stale for pretty much the entire year and especially over the last two weeks. Over the past 15 games, the Tribe are hitting .223 which is the fourth worst over that span in all of MLB. Cleveland’s 52 runs scored over the past 15 games is only better than San Fran’s 51 and Pittsburgh’s 50 over that same span. That would not be much of a concern if the Indians were playing in Seattle or some other pitcher’s parks but that’s not the case at all. Cleveland is coming off a slew of games against some weak pitching staffs from Kansas City, Minnesota, Seattle and Detroit. The games against the M’s were at Progressive Field. This struggling offense will now face one of the best pitcher’s in the game.
Chris Archer is also the straight goods with 59 K’s in 53 innings and a 3.04 ERA. Archer’s 16% swing and miss rate is three points higher than Carrasco’s and Archer also throws more strikes and has a strong first-pitch strike rate too. Plainly put, Archer is one of the best in the game with the skills to back it up and there is absolutely no justification for a starter of this caliber to be taking back a tag like the one being offered here.
MIAMI +103 over Houston
The Astros own the best record in MLB. They were seen by millions on TV this past weekend, capped off by last night’s featured game on ESPN. For gamblers, the baseball game last night was the only “real action” to bet on (few in the U.S. watch hockey, especially Nashville at Anaheim) so all those good folks saw Houston take a 2-0 lead after the first two batters of the game went yard. The Astronauts would subsequently take a 8-0 lead after three innings and then cruise home for the easy win against the highly regarded Masahiro Tanaka. The Astronauts are the talk of MLB now and after taking three of four from the powerful Yanks, they now take a perceived big step down in class when facing the not-often watched Marlins. Anyone that watched the Astros take apart the Yankees this past weekend will be quick to jump on this short line, citing it as a gift. Beware.
This is a huge letdown spot for Houston after playing a four-game set in New York. Emotions and intensity were high while Yankee Stadium was packed for all four games. Aside from that, the Astros endured a rain-delay on Saturday and played in a double-header yesterday. They’ll arrive at the park today to no fanfare whatsoever and when the first pitch is thrown, three quarters of the stadium will be empty. It’s a stark contrast to what the Astros experienced the past four days and for the most of the year at home too. The point is that Houston’s intensity level for the start of this series figures to be very low.
We often talk about situational plays being a big part of our criterion and that is the case here. The Marlins are one of MLB’s most under-appreciated and underpriced teams that are going to go on several winning streaks this season. Miami is loaded with high caliber talent and if they had the pitching, they would be contenders. The Fish figure to be more focused than the visitor, as there is no question as to which team is in the more favorable spot. We’re playing the situation here and urge you to be cautious if you were thinking of betting the small favorite.
Atlanta +115 over TORONTO
Bartolo Colon has been the brunt of many jokes in this space over the years and it’s because he’s defied logic for years. For years, Colon’s ERA showed continued life but his xERA told a different story. There were small signs of erosion all over the place and it has finally caught up to him this year, as Colon has posted a 7.22 ERA after seven starts. Atlanta struck early in the off-season by taking several aging free agent starters off the market during this rebuilding period and Colon was one of them. He has thrived on impeccable control and command over the past five years, but he turns 44 this month and is riskier than ever but sometimes you just have to plug your nose and hope for the best. This is one of those times.
The Blue Jays have won five in a row and 11 of 15 to turn a disaster start into a respectable 17-21 record to get back into the race. After sweeping the Mariners this past weekend and taking two of three from the Indians prior, the Jays can exhale a bit here with the Braves coming to town. More importantly is that Toronto’s stock is a bit too high right now and Mike Bolsinger shouldn’t be favored over Gwinnett, let alone the undervalued Braves. Bolsinger went 1-4 with a 6.83 ERA in 28 innings last year for the Dodgers. He’s 29 years old and over 195 MLB innings in his career, he has posted a ERA/xERA split of 4.57/5.22. Starters like Bolsinger have razor thin margins of error. When one skill deteriorates (in this case several have) and they get struck with some bad luck (hit%, strand%, hr/f), it all can go bust. This is a starter with a career 7% swing and miss rate and that was whacked at Chavez Ravine more than once. In his only start this year, Bolsinger went six full against the Indians but walked four and struck out four. Luck was on his side and he’ll need lots more of it to succeed here. Bolsinger’s low floor/ceiling combo is confirmed by a horrible dominant start/disaster start split over his career. This is a pitcher not worth backing as the chalk, ever, so by process of elimination, Atlanta must be played.
Tampa Bay +138 over CLEVELAND
Carlos Carrasco is the straight goods. He has a BB/K split of 8/46 over 48 innings and he also has a 1.86 ERA. This is now his fourth straight season in which he’s flashed elite skills across the board. Carrasco is as good as advertised. However, when we can get Tampa’s Chris Archer with a takeback like this, we’re not going to hesitate to grab it.
The total in this one is 7½, which is a puny number for an AL game in a hitter’s park. That tells us that one, two or three runs could win this one and it also tells us that it could be decided by the pens after both pitchers are long gone. That adds more appeal to the Rays. Furthermore, Cleveland’s offense has been completely stale for pretty much the entire year and especially over the last two weeks. Over the past 15 games, the Tribe are hitting .223 which is the fourth worst over that span in all of MLB. Cleveland’s 52 runs scored over the past 15 games is only better than San Fran’s 51 and Pittsburgh’s 50 over that same span. That would not be much of a concern if the Indians were playing in Seattle or some other pitcher’s parks but that’s not the case at all. Cleveland is coming off a slew of games against some weak pitching staffs from Kansas City, Minnesota, Seattle and Detroit. The games against the M’s were at Progressive Field. This struggling offense will now face one of the best pitcher’s in the game.
Chris Archer is also the straight goods with 59 K’s in 53 innings and a 3.04 ERA. Archer’s 16% swing and miss rate is three points higher than Carrasco’s and Archer also throws more strikes and has a strong first-pitch strike rate too. Plainly put, Archer is one of the best in the game with the skills to back it up and there is absolutely no justification for a starter of this caliber to be taking back a tag like the one being offered here.
MIAMI +103 over Houston
The Astros own the best record in MLB. They were seen by millions on TV this past weekend, capped off by last night’s featured game on ESPN. For gamblers, the baseball game last night was the only “real action” to bet on (few in the U.S. watch hockey, especially Nashville at Anaheim) so all those good folks saw Houston take a 2-0 lead after the first two batters of the game went yard. The Astronauts would subsequently take a 8-0 lead after three innings and then cruise home for the easy win against the highly regarded Masahiro Tanaka. The Astronauts are the talk of MLB now and after taking three of four from the powerful Yanks, they now take a perceived big step down in class when facing the not-often watched Marlins. Anyone that watched the Astros take apart the Yankees this past weekend will be quick to jump on this short line, citing it as a gift. Beware.
This is a huge letdown spot for Houston after playing a four-game set in New York. Emotions and intensity were high while Yankee Stadium was packed for all four games. Aside from that, the Astros endured a rain-delay on Saturday and played in a double-header yesterday. They’ll arrive at the park today to no fanfare whatsoever and when the first pitch is thrown, three quarters of the stadium will be empty. It’s a stark contrast to what the Astros experienced the past four days and for the most of the year at home too. The point is that Houston’s intensity level for the start of this series figures to be very low.
We often talk about situational plays being a big part of our criterion and that is the case here. The Marlins are one of MLB’s most under-appreciated and underpriced teams that are going to go on several winning streaks this season. Miami is loaded with high caliber talent and if they had the pitching, they would be contenders. The Fish figure to be more focused than the visitor, as there is no question as to which team is in the more favorable spot. We’re playing the situation here and urge you to be cautious if you were thinking of betting the small favorite.
Atlanta +115 over TORONTO
Bartolo Colon has been the brunt of many jokes in this space over the years and it’s because he’s defied logic for years. For years, Colon’s ERA showed continued life but his xERA told a different story. There were small signs of erosion all over the place and it has finally caught up to him this year, as Colon has posted a 7.22 ERA after seven starts. Atlanta struck early in the off-season by taking several aging free agent starters off the market during this rebuilding period and Colon was one of them. He has thrived on impeccable control and command over the past five years, but he turns 44 this month and is riskier than ever but sometimes you just have to plug your nose and hope for the best. This is one of those times.
The Blue Jays have won five in a row and 11 of 15 to turn a disaster start into a respectable 17-21 record to get back into the race. After sweeping the Mariners this past weekend and taking two of three from the Indians prior, the Jays can exhale a bit here with the Braves coming to town. More importantly is that Toronto’s stock is a bit too high right now and Mike Bolsinger shouldn’t be favored over Gwinnett, let alone the undervalued Braves. Bolsinger went 1-4 with a 6.83 ERA in 28 innings last year for the Dodgers. He’s 29 years old and over 195 MLB innings in his career, he has posted a ERA/xERA split of 4.57/5.22. Starters like Bolsinger have razor thin margins of error. When one skill deteriorates (in this case several have) and they get struck with some bad luck (hit%, strand%, hr/f), it all can go bust. This is a starter with a career 7% swing and miss rate and that was whacked at Chavez Ravine more than once. In his only start this year, Bolsinger went six full against the Indians but walked four and struck out four. Luck was on his side and he’ll need lots more of it to succeed here. Bolsinger’s low floor/ceiling combo is confirmed by a horrible dominant start/disaster start split over his career. This is a pitcher not worth backing as the chalk, ever, so by process of elimination, Atlanta must be played.
