Monday 3/7/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Bugs Sting TWolves'

Charlotte Hornets improved to 33-28 (32-28-1 ATS) on the campaign with its 108-101 home win over Pacers Friday covering the -3.5 point spot. Hornets playing solid hoops have now won three consecutive SU/ATS and fourteen of nineteen on the hardwood (13-6 ATS). In their last game, Timberwolves upped the mark to 20-43 (28-34-1 ATS) with a 132-118 home victory over road weary Brooklyn Nets.

Expect Bugs to sting Timberwolves as home-court advantage plays a key roll in Charlotte winning this contest. The Hornets thriving on home court (21-9, 16-13-1 ATS) this season have won seven of eight in front of the friendly crowd (6-2 ATS). Meanwhile, life on the road a nightmare for Minnesota (9-22, 17-14 ATS) enter this contest a lowly 2-16 (7-11 ATS) the past eighteen in hostile territory. Additionally, Hornets have enjoyed success vs Timberwolves winning/covering the past four meetings. One final betting nugget pointing towards Charlotte. Timberwolves hitting 68.4% from the field in their victory over Nets are just 2-7-1 ATS after dropping => 55.0% of their shots the previous effort.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's WCC Tip Sheet
By David Schwab

The 2016 West Coast Conference Tournament got underway this past weekend and so far it has gone right according to plan with the top four seeds advancing to Monday night’s semifinals in Las Vegas.

The first matchup pits No. 4 Pepperdine against the top-seeded St. Mary Gaels at 9:00 p.m. ET followed by the No. 3 BYU Cougars squaring-off against the No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs at 11:30 p.m ET.

Pepperdine Waves vs. St Mary’s Gaels (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: St. Mary’s -7 ½

Betting Matchup

Pepperdine closed-out the regular season with a shaky 3-5 straight-up record in its last eight games while going 4-4 against the spread, but one of those victories came against the Gaels in a 69-63 road win on Feb. 11 as a heavy 12 ½-point underdog. The total went OVER 148 in Saturday’s 90-86 quarterfinal’s victory over San Francisco as five-point favorites and it has now gone OVER in the Waves’ last four outings.

Junior guard Jeremy Major came up big in Saturday’s win with 28 points while going 10-for-12 from the field. The Waves scored 90 points for the first time since pinning 98 points on San Francisco in a regular season win on Jan. 16. They shot 52.6 percent from the field this time around including a 9-for-18 performance from three-point range. Junior guard Lamond Murray Jr. has been the team’s leading scorer all season with 16.2 points per game and he added 16 to the winning effort on Saturday night.

The Gaels’ run to a WCC regular season title at 15-3 SU in conference play included a five-game winning streak down the stretch while covering ATS in their final three contests. St. Mary’s opened-up this tournament with a comfortable 60-48 victory against Loyola Marymount, but it could not cover as a 14 ½-point favorite. The total stayed UNDER the closing 133 ½-point line and it has stayed UNDER in eight of its last 10 games.

St. Mary’s is ranked fourth in the nation in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 60 points a game and it has been able work this number down to 58.4 points over its last five games. The Gaels fall to fifth in the WCC in scoring with an average of 74.7 PPG and this number has also fallen slightly to 71 points during this same stretch. Sophomore guard Emmett Naar is averaging a team-high 13.9 points and he met or exceeded that average in three of his last four starts.

Betting Trends

-- The Waves have failed to cover in four of their last five neutral-site games, but they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven Monday games.

-- The Gaels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games played at a neutral site and they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games at a neutral site.

-- Head-to-head in this WCC clash, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games. Pepperdine swept the season series both SU and ATS after closing as an underdog in each game.

BYU Cougars vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs (ESPN2, 11:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Gonzaga -2 ½

Betting Matchup

BYU had little trouble getting past Santa Clara on Saturday in a 72-60 win, but it could not cover the closing 15 ½-point spread. The total in that game stayed UNDER 153 and it has stayed UNDER in four of its last five games. The Cougars closed-out the regular season with a tight 71-68 loss to Gonzaga as three-point home favorites. The loss snapped a SU five-game winning streak and BYU is now just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five contests.

Senior guard Kyle Collinsworth was recently named the WCC Player of the Year and he stayed hot in the postseason with 13 points, nine rebounds and six assists in Saturday’s win. Another senior guard Chase Fischer has been the Cougars’ leading scorer this season with 18 PPG and he added 14 points against Santa Clara as four of five starters ended the night in double figures. BYU is the highest scoring team in the WCC with an average of 83.6 PPG.

Gonzaga followed-up its big upset of BYU in its season finale with a convincing 92-67 romp over Portland in its first tournament game. The Bulldogs covered as 15 ½-point favorites and the total went OVER the 154 ½-point closing line. They have now gone 5-2 (both SU and ATS) in their last seven games with the total going OVER in four of those contests. Gonzaga actually tied St. Mary’s for the best record in the WCC at 15-3 SU, but it lost both meetings against its bitter rival.

The Bulldogs opened-up a 14-point lead at the half in Saturday’s quarterfinal victory and never looked back. The combination of sophomore forward Domantas Sabonis and senior guard Eric McClellan scored 50 of Gonzaga’s 92 points and the team as a whole shot 50.8 percent from the field. The Bulldogs are second in the conference behind BYU in scoring with 79.3 PPG and senior forward Kyle Wiltjer is the second-highest scorer in the WCC this season with 20.5 PPG.

Betting Trends

-- The Cougars have failed to cover in six of their last seven Monday games, but they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. The total has gone OVER in nine of their last 10 neutral-site games.

-- The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on Monday and the total has gone OVER in 12 of their last 17 games at a neutral site. It has also gone OVER in 15 of their last 22 conference games.

-- The favorite in this conference tilt has gone 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 12 games. These two teams split the season series SU with the road team covering in each game. The total stayed UNDER in both meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Monday's games..........

MAC tournament (campus sites)
Ball State lost three of last four games after 9-5 start in MAC; they beat Miami twice this year, 48-46 at home (trailed by 16 in second half), then 73-56 on road. Cardinals are 2-8 in last 10 first round games, 0-4 the last four years. Miami won three of last four games after a 3-11 start; they're 7-5 in first tourney game last 12 years. Teams split last eight series tilts. Ball State lost four of its last seven home games.

Bowling Green lost 10 of last 11 games, losing last six road games, five by 11+ points. Kent State beat Falcons twice this year, 62-59 on road (led 30-19 at half), then 70-54 on Senior Day six nights ago. Flashes are 8-4 in last 12 games with BG, which is on third coach in last three years. Falcons are 3-9 in MAC tourney last nine years, 3-6 in first game. Kent won MAC tourney in '06/'08, is 3-4 in first round games since.

Eastern Michigan won six of its last eight games, beating Toledo twice in last 16 days, 91-85 at home (made 11-16 on arc, was 56-42 at halftime), 79-75 on road three nights ago- EMU trailed by 9 in second half. Toledo made 10-20 on arc Friday, still lost- they beat Eastern in last two MAC tourneys, won last three first round games. Eastern went 2-1 in tourney last three years; their zone is in trouble if team shoots its 3's well.

Northern Illinois is 6-9 in its last 15 games after 14-3 start; they're 8-1 at home in MAC, with only loss to Buffalo. Huskies split with Western Michigan this year, losing by 14 on road Jan 16 (Broncos made 12-26 on arc), winning rematch 76-67 nine days ago (Broncos were 1-13 on arc). NIU is 2-9 in last 11 first round games; both wins were by 3. WMU is 12-1 in its first MAC tourney game the last thirteen years.

CAA tournament (Baltimore)
Hofstra won its last eight games; they split pair with NC-Wilmington, in games where losing sides blew 20/18 point leads. UNCW won 15 of last 17 games- their two wins this weekend were by total of 5 points- their subs play 31.5% of time, Hofstra's subs play least minutes in country. Seahawks beat Hofstra in this game 10 years ago; neither side has been back in finals since. UNCW wants game to go fast; Hofstra has almost no depth, but players who play are very experienced.

Horizon tournament (Joe Louis Arena, Detroit)
Green Bay played last two days. Valpo had a bye to this point; Valpo swept Phoenix this year, shooting 58% inside arc, then 70-68 on road in rematch nine days ago- Crusaders were down 3 with 4:57 left. Phoenix won six of its last seven games; they're 4-8 in this tourney the last eight years. Valpo went 16-2 in Horizon this year; they won this event two of last three years, won 1st round game last five years, three by 9+ points.

Wright State played last two days, won its last five games; they've lost twice to Oakland this season, 89-63 on road, 89-73 at home-- Grizzlies scored 1.31/1.20 ppp in two games. Oakland had by eto here; shooter Max Hooper's dad passed away Sunday- his status here is a ??. Wright State lost in tourney finals in three of last six years. Oakland won 10 of its last 12 games; they're 1-3 in first round games last four tournaments. Wright State only had two guys play more than 27:00 yesterday.

MAAC tournament (Albany)
Iona-Monmouth split two games this year; there was almost fracas after Hawks' 110-102 road win (they made 13-22 on arc, scored 66 points in second half). Monmouth is 13-1 in last 14 games, with only loss 83-67 at home to Gaels, who won last seven games, winning on Siena's floor in semis last night-- three starters played 34:00+. Iona is 9-2 in this event last five years, losing in finals in last two. Monmouth last won tourney in 2006, when they were in NEC.

Southern Conference tournament (Asheville, NC)
Chattanooga won 22 of its last 25 games; they beat East Tennessee State twice this year, 94-84 at home Jan 16 (made 11-20 on arc, were +13 on foul line), 76-69 on road (+13 on line again). Only two Mocs were used more than 28:00 last nite- their two wins this weekend were by total of nine points. Buccaneers won last seven games, they're #14 in country in experience; only two of their guys played more than 27:00 yesterday. Chattanooga is 4-0 vs ETSU since teams became SoCon rivals.

Summit tournament (Sioux Falls)
South Dakota State swept Denver this year, 68-59 at home (Pioneers hit 3-9 on arc), 67-56 on road (Denver was 5-21). Jackrabbits are 10-2 last 12 games- they had yesterday off. Denver is 6-8 in conference tourneys last 10 years; they blew 15-point halftime lead last nite, pulled away for win late. Pioneers are 6-8 in conference tourneys last 14 years- last time they won two games in same tourney was 2010. State is 10-2 in tourney last five years, but haven't won it since 2013.

North Dakota State won Summit tourney last two years, but lost four of last seven games overall; they caught a break yesterday when IUPUI sat its best player. Bison lost 79-74 at Fort Wayne Jan 21 (led by five with 9:22 left), won rematch 62-46 Feb 6. IPFW is 6-8 in conference tourneys last nine years; they're 17-4 in last 21 games overall, had yesterday off. Mastodons won five of last six games; they scored 86+ points in their last seven wins.

WCC tournament (Las Vegas)
Since 2004, St Mary's is 2-8 in second WCC tourney game. Pepperdine gets 6.5 points from St Mary's despite beating Gaels twice this season, 67-64 at home (were down 7 at half), 69-63 on road (Gaels hit 5-14 on line). Waves are 4-5 in last nine games; since 07, they're 0-7 in second WCC tourney game. St Mary's won last seven games overall; they win this game, then hope BYU/Gonzaga beat each other up in the nightcap- no one in WCC is off the bubble.

Since 2004, Gonzaga is 24-3 in WCC tourney, with all three losses in its second tourney game. Road team won both Gonzaga-BYU games this year; Cougars won in Spokane 69-68, rallying back from 13 down with 11:57 left, then lost on Senior Night 71-68, shooting 32% from the floor. BYU is 14-9 in conference tourneys last 10 years, but didn't win any of them. Cougars' last four losses were all by 6 or less points- they're 13-4 in their last 17 games overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

Conference Championship Week

Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-7, 13-15-1 ATS) opened the West Coast Conference tournament quarterfinals Saturday night defeating Portland 92-67 cashing as -15.0 point chalk. Eric McClellan's led the way with 26 points with Domantas Sabonis contributing 24 to the winning effort.

BYU Cougars (24-7, 13-15-1 ATS) ousted Santa Clara 72-60 in their WCC Tournament opener but failed at the betting window laying -15.0 points. Cougars spreading the wealth on offense had five players drop double digits with Nick Emery tops at 15 points.

Bulldogs enjoying success vs Cougars winning 9 of the past 13 matchups including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in conference tournament clashes have opened -2.5 point favorites.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Monday 3/7 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 4,5,7/2,3/1,2,6/3,5,8/1,3 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 3,5,8/1,3/4,5,7,8/8,9 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 8,9/2,6,8/3,4,6/2,9 = $36

MEET STATS: 277 - 868 / $1446.10 BEST BETS: 44 - 81 / $156.40

SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 81 / $208.70

Best Bet: UF BETTORS HANOVER (10th)

Spot Play: BAGS FOR ALL (8th)


Race 1

(4) MEGO MOSS, winless for a long time, closed well last time and picks up Jamieson here in a race that could fall apart late; slight nod in the opener. (5) O U SEXY GUY has gone two big uncovered trips in the top class at London and merits a look vs. these. (7) OLE JACK MAGIC fits in this class and may elect to follow a helmet here which could produce a better result.

Race 2

(2) SHOCK N ROCK closed quickly last week but the ones in front of him weren't slowing down. The drop in class should put him right there tonight. (3) FOREVER JUST was out a long way last week which was his undoing. He looks like one of the best ones of this group. (6) HES A SENSATION drops to a class where he should be very competitive but he does have win-shy tendencies.

Race 3

(6) MUSICAL RHYTHM steps into the deep end here tonight facing Preferred foes but he could be this good. (2) WILD AND CRAZY GUY is one that could take advantage of an early speed battle here. (1) FEARLESS MAN could get into a spirited early tussle with the choice. The question is: will either of them give in?

Race 4

(4) DREAMFAIR MESA tired late on a track rated two seconds slow last week. He can make amends here. (3) GOTTI looks like a player here but notice the 11 slices vs. one win in 22 starts. (Note: Second choice Home James was an early scratch.)

Race 5

(3) OK GLADIATOR got a clean line last week in his 2nd start for the new barn; expecting more here. (1) LOVES A CHALLENGE does well in this class and stays in it off the claim. He's the one to beat. (6) THEY CALL ME GORDIE raced decently last week after shipping in and he could share here.

Race 6

(4) UNE DUHARAS has put together 3 starts in a row where she stayed trotting and showed a bit of life in the 3rd 1/4 last time. Maybe she can move forward now. (8) LEGION OF ANGELS has raced well in two straight but needs to find more late speed to get the job done. (5) ASTERIX showed little in his season debut but could wake up with that start out of the way.

Race 7

(7) EASY LOVER HANOVER shoots for his fourth straight since arriving at Woodbine and has a big shot to do it despite facing slightly better. (8) P H KENNY has been great so far this year and looks like the main danger. (3) SMALLTOWN TERROR was one of few that was closing ground late vs. the choice last week. He could upset with the right trip.

Race 8

(6) BAGS FOR ALL finds a spot where the lead is hers for the taking early. She could wire this group. (2) KINETIC KING used a huge third 1/4 last time to bottom out the field. He is a contender here in his current sharp condition. (8) CHARLIE IS A JOKER takes a big drop but is an infrequent winner that must overcome the outermost post. Beware taking too low a price on this one.

Race 9

(4) IN SECRET failed to deliver as a big favorite last week but could work out a different trip here and make amends. (3) GRANA PADANNO has been racing well for several weeks and looks like the one to beat. (6) SLIP INTO GLIDE drops and will take lots of action. I'll take my chances trying to beat him with hopefully a better-priced option.

Race 10

(2) UF BETTORS HANOVER faces much easier here and should get a more aggressive drive; top call in the finale. (9) PRINCE SHARKA hung in there a bit batter last time and no doubt will be blasting early again. His good early speed makes him a contender. (6) COMEONANDGETSOME went two long, tough trips in a row and held well racing out of town. He can threaten these. (3) LIVE AND LEARN continues to chip away taking small shares and that should continue here. (5) CHEYENNE FORD took crazy action last week and showed little. He can do better here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 3/7 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 56 - 189 / $330.30

BEST BETS: 7 - 16 / $23.40

Best Bet: KRYPTOS (4th)

Spot Play: KINGS BARNS (9th)


Race 1

(6) TOUCH THE ROCK has been sharp as a tack in all recent and despite being outside his main competition he remains the one to beat. (1) ROETHBLISSBERGER was totally empty last out but he plunges to the basement and is clearly capable of awakening. (2) JC KINGDOM will never be far away from this spot.

Race 2

(6) CAPELA needs to overcome an outside post draw but I think she may just be faster than these. (5) BROWN BRINNY is a neck shy of a three-race winning streak and she certainly is logical. (2) IM IN LUV ships from Woodbine in good form and she's one to look at in a clear three-horse affair.

Race 3

(4) JOLT OF WHISKEY is up in class off a win and looks sharpest of the contenders. (5) BIG BAD BOSSMAN woke up in a huge way last week en route to an upset win. (1) JACK ATTACK and (6) SMOKING JOEY both debut for new connections and either seems capable here.

Race 4

(3) KRYPTOS looked super last week coasting to a dominating win and the well-bred mare can have her way with these. (2) BIN N HEAVEN will be forwardly placed and can chase the top one second best. (6) SKEEBALL raced well last week off the long layoff but she's likely at a tactical disadvantage from this outside spot.

Race 5

(5) FEISTYS LEGACY ships from Canada for O'Sullivan and finds a very weak NW2 race; the way this barn has been going recently makes this mare logical selecting. (3) AMAZON looked good in her first two starts of the year; don't know whats been going on recently, however. (2) OH SUGAR has raced pretty well recently and draws best of the contenders.

Race 6

(5) LITTLE MISS SPORTY was a very game winner in her local debut after being stung early on in the mile and she may be up to this task. (3) NORTHERN BEAUTY has shown solid gate speed in her three local starts for Jody Riedel. (6) RAVENNA STAR has been solid recently up at Monticello for the Stalbaum barn.

Race 7

(7) VICTORIA'S MUNKY lands the worst post in this division of the Petticoat but she has a pretty good history here and I would expect Dube to be trying to move early. (3) SASSAFRAS GIRL ships up from Dover off a good effort in a quick time. (4) SPECIAL PACKAGE qualified effectively and is certainly in with a chance, but it's hard to justify that 4/5 morning line.

Race 8

(4) GRAND MASTER showed nice improvement last out with Bartlett driving and the veteran is clearly trending in the right direction. (3) DIAL OR NO DIAL is back down a notch in class off a failed uncovered try and he's got $1.7 million worth of back class to call upon. (2) MAJOR BUBBLES N broke his U.S. maiden last out and may have more to offer.

Race 9

(6) KINGS BARNS moves into the Allard barn and gets some class relief; I expect a more aggressive effort tonight. (5) CHRISTIAN SLOY A was well-backed in his U.S. debut and raced decently; Down-Under import may only get better. (2) BACKUP A gets both needed class and post relief tonight.

Race 10

(4) CHANTEPLEURE has been a solid fixture at this level and always gives 100%; expect him to be on or near the lead again. (2) MASTERSON finally put it together last week but he arguably faces tougher tonight despite the lower purse. (3) ELECTROFIRE is a steady commodity from the Kokinos barn, which has been performing well recently.

Race 11

(7) GINGER TREE ALEXIS ships in from The Meadows and joins the golden Milici barn, who seems to turn everything around instantly; leading driver Bartlett gets the call. (5) MAYA SCAPE was better in her second start for Laterza. (1) QUEEN OF DENIAL isn't the winning type, but she can hang around for a share from the rail.

Race 12

(4) CLASS SIX was gunned down last week by a tough rival; he should fire to the front again and can start a new streak. (1) SIMPLY BUSINESS shook free too late and finished with pace last out; big threat from this spot. (7) ROCKSTAR STRIDE fizzled out badly in his last two after showing big speed; perhaps a change of tactics are in order; threat underneath at a price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Mahoning Valley (1st) Paige Got Even, 3-1
(8th) D'ario, 6-1


Parx Racing (4th) Saints Be Praised, 9-2
(7th) Regal Soldier, 3-1


Sam Houston (7th) Wild Though, 6-1
(8th) Flying Frenchman, 4-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Maggie's Guy, 8-1
(5th) Classical Hy, 8-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's six-pack

Six of the better minor league prospects for the San Diego Padres.......

1) Javier Guerra, SS-- Acquired from Boston in Craig Kimbrel trade.

2) Manuel Margot, OF-- Better defensively than with the bat.

3) Hunter Renfroe, OF-- Led Texas League in outfield assists LY.

6) Travis Jankowski, OF-- Hit .211 in 90 major league ABs last season.

7) Colin Rea, P-- Allowed 29 hits in 32 big league IP last year.

23) Rymer Liriano, OF-- Had .383 OB% in full year at AAA El Paso LY.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Monday, March 7, 2016, NBA.

LA Clippers vs Dallas OVER the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Roz Wins

Roz's Monday, March 7, 2016, Free NBA Pick:

Kings at Pelicans: The Over is 36-17 in the Pelicans last 53 home games.

Play the Kings/Pelicans Over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Monday

523 TOLEDO at 524 EASTERN MICHIGAN 7:30 PM

Take: 523 TOLEDO pk

Back in the old days when I had a full head of hair…okay, maybe more like half full…I was part of a Saturday morning show called “Proline” that ran on USA Network. One of the guys on the panel liked to talk about “don’t make sense” plays. To be honest, I’ve never truly subscribed to that theory. I guess it kind of goes against my grain, because I’m a very logical person, sometimes to a fault. Son of a scientist syndrome, maybe?

But sometimes “don’t make sense” just jumps right out at me, and tonight’s Toledo/Eastern Michigan opening round MAC Tournament clash fits that category.

Toledo comes into this game playing some pretty lousy basketball. The Rockets have lost five of their last six, with two of those losses at the hands of tonight’s opponent. Eastern Michigan was horrendous in January, but the Eagles have figured things out down the stretch, and I think it’s fair to suggest they’re playing their best ball of the season right now.

The Eagles figure to have confidence against a team they beat twice this year, and I’m sure they’d also like to knock out a Rockets entry that has sent them home early each of the last two seasons in this event. Rob Murphy has been a tough out in this tournament, racking up seven wins in the last three seasons before getting kayoed by Ted Kowalczyk.

In viewing the kenpom projections for this game, it’s Eastern Michigan by 3. Not that these numbers are the gospel in terms of accuracy, but they’re absolutely part of the oddsmaking formula. That’t not just a throwaway opinion, by the way. Of all the games on the Monday slate, the one with the biggest differential between kenpom and the actual betting line is this one.

So Team A is struggling, Team B is pretty warm, Team B already defeated Team A twice, Team B has revenge from each of the last two MAC tourneys, Team B ought to be the chalk on the projections…and the guys who set the number saw fit to make this game pick ’em. That is kind of the essence of “don’t make sense” in my estimation. I’ll buy the fact that the in-season double revenge on the Toledo side has some impact on the number, but not this much.

Now I’ll throw in something of my own. I do things a little differently in arriving at my own projections for each game. One can argue that this hasn’t worked out especially well this season, and unfortunately for me, that assessment is not incorrect. Be that as it may, my process ends up with Toledo as a three-point favorite. So between my data plus what I perceive as an indicator based on where this line was set, I’m compelled to back Toledo tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp NBA Pick, Monday, March 7, 2016 10:35 PM ET

(513) ORLANDO MAGIC VS (514) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

ORLANDO MAGIC

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, March 7, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Orlando Magic and Golden State Warriors. The Golden State Warriors look to be in pursue of the all-time NBA win record. However, at what cost? That became apparent on Sunday as the Warriors had a rare blowout loss at the Lakers, 112-95. Last season, the Warriors chose to rest players heading down the stretch, a plan that resulted in a NBA Championship. Maybe Sunday's loss will change the strategy for this season. Tonight, the Warriors play a second of a back-to-back spot at home against the Magic. Will Stephen Curry see some rest time after his 34 minutes played? The Magic are also in a bit of a cover slump, posting just a 3-7-1 ATS mark their last 11 games. The Warriors could blow this team out, but I believe we'll see them resting a bit more in this spot. I'll take the double digit points with the Magic.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

DINAMO MOSCOW vs FC Ural

Bonus Play Draw +210

I think we see a 0-0 or 1-1 score.

FC Ural 1

Dinamo 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Heath Mac

Miami (OH) vs Ball State

Free Pick OVER 125

This game may be a little closer than the spread looks here. Ball State are the better team, but the Redhawks have been playing well recently, covering in their last 4 straight games, including winning 3 of those 4 games outright – all as dogs. We’re steering clear of the spread and looking at the total instead.

Although these sides are both solid defensively, the Cardinals can put up some points too, scoring 115 points a couple of games back. The Redhawks are not going to win many shoot outs, but are solid enough on offense, scoring at least 65+ points in their last 4 straight games. With us expecting this game to be a little closer than the spread suggests, we should see some free throws at the end of the game which always helps when backing the OVER.

Over is 6-1 in Red Hawks last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Over is 4-1 in Red Hawks last 5 games following a straight up loss. Over is 5-2 in Red Hawks last 7 overall and Over is 5-2 in Red Hawks last 7 vs. Mid-American. Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 neutral site games. Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 Monday games. Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals last 6 games following a straight up loss. Over is 5-2-1 in Cardinals last 8 games following a ATS loss. Over is 9-4-1 in Cardinals last 14 overall and Over is 9-4-1 in Cardinals last 14 vs. Mid-American.

Lots of trends in this one pointing towards the OVER. A low total gives us even greater confidence here.

For our Free Pick, take the OVER 125 points here and enjoy the collect.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Spurs vs Pacers

Play - Indiana Pacers

Edges - Pacers: 15-4 ATS versus .570 or greater opponents this season; and 19-7 SU in games after facing Washington. Spurs: 13-17 SUATS away versus winning opponents last two years, including 5-10 ATS off BB wins. With the Spurs in a one-game non-conference road trip, we recommend a 1* play on Indiana. Thank you and good luck as always.