SPORTS WAGERS
CALGARY -102 over Pittsburgh
OT included. If the Penguins return to health for the playoffs, the rest of the league better pray that some other team knocks them out before they have to face them because that’s how difficult the champs will be to dispose of. When healthy, Pittsburgh is the NHL’s best team and it might not be close. That said, the Penguins are the walking wounded with at least a half dozen key regulars out and this game is just another one among dozen’s others for the Penguins. For the Flames, it is anything but just another game.
The Flames have not been relevant for well over a decade. They had some decent teams’ in the early part of the century and even made it to the Cup Finals in 2004 but it’s been a long dry spell since. This year, the Flames are creating a buzz and it’s legit. Calgary is loaded with everything a team needs to make a deep run in the playoffs. They have stable goaltending with Brian Elliott, who has found that next level again. They have role players, balanced scoring and the best puck-moving defensemen in the league. The Flames went Butch Goring hunting at the deadline and may have come up with the missing piece when they picked up Michael Stone from Arizona. Even Curtis Lazar, a former first round pick and high point producer in the minors could come alive if he’s given an opportunity, which he inevitably will. Anyway, back to this game. This is the hottest ticket in Calgary in a very long time. The Flames are playing better than any team in the NHL right now and the building will be as electric as it’s ever been. The Flames will bring it here while the Penguins, at half mass, are not in a position to play their best game. That Pittsburgh is favored here is bordering on lunacy.
Carolina +119 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. There’s just three weeks left in the regular season so there is no point discussing who the Hurricanes are. We all know they are going to miss the playoffs again because just like last year, weak goaltending will keep them out of it. We all know this is a talented team that is difficult to play against and that can defeat anyone when the goaltending is adequate. The Hurricanes have played the third toughest schedule in the league and their 16 wins against top 16 teams is the 11th best mark in the NHL. Only teams ahead of them in the standings have more and many teams below them in the standings have less. The ‘Canes now get to play the spoiler role again so motivation figures to be high against a rival team like the Islanders that are fighting for their playoff lives.
Situational betting is a big part of our criteria and therefore we must fade the Islanders today because of it. The Islanders are back home after their nine-game excursion throughout North America, playing their first home game since February 19 against the Devils. That’s a month on the road covering four different time zones and it’s not going to be easy to get right back at it here. The Islanders’ 5-4 road trip was a tremendous accomplishment that keeps them in the running for the playoffs but there is an inevitable energy loss that is likely to take place here. To beat the ‘Canes, a team needs that high energy because Carolina is a top possession team that does not give up the puck very easily. The bet here is based on the Islanders returning home from an unusually long trip.
St. Louis +150 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. This one is as big as it gets for both clubs. The once dominate Kings are currently sitting outside the playoff picture and trail the Blues, who occupy the final Wildcard spot, by three points. A win here for L.A. pulls it within one point of the Blues while a loss crushes its quest to make the playoffs. It’s that simple. Historically, the west coast swing has been a difficult one for the Blues but L.A., San Jose and Anaheim have been strong for years. However, this trip probably comes at one of the best times in the Blues season. They are in the middle of a four-game win streak despite facing teams like the Wild, Ducks and those pesky Islanders. Outscoring their opponents by a count of 13-7 over that span, all of their wins came in regulation. Lastly, with Ken Hitchcock as coach, the Blues had the worst team save percentage in the NHL. Since Mike Yao took over coaching duties and brought along Martin Brodeur as goalie coach, the Blues have the best save percentage in the league. Coincidence? We think not.
The Kings defeated the Caps on Saturday night, 4-2 but Washington can’t win a game since they picked up Kevin Shattenkirk. Aside from that, four of L.A.’s last six games have gone into OT. Over their last 10 games, the Kings are 5-5. Over their last 20 games, the Kings are 10-10. They win a bunch of 2-1 and 3-2 games and lose a bunch of 2-1 and 3-2 games. The Kings are a grind it out team that attempts to wear their opponents down but that’s not what matters here. If we look at the entire season for the Kings and consider current form of both clubs, this game is a complete 50/50 proposition. Now take out a coin, flip it and offer up “tails” at +150 and those betting “heads” will get buried over time. The same theory applies here. This is a serious overlay on a team that wins 50% of its games,
Winnipeg +141 over NASHVILLE
OT included. First off, Pekka Rinne must be in goal for this bet to stand. We are going to wait for confirmation first but since Juuse Saros started last game, we suspect Rinne will start this one. We’re not going to go into a lot of detail here other than stating that the Jets are a dangerous team that have a ton of appeal at this price against weak goaltending. Should Rinne get the call, they’ll be facing weak goaltending.
So, let’s go over this one more time. Saros started Nashville’s last game in San Jose and the Preds won 3-1. Rinne started three of the prior four and the Preds lost all three. In Saros’ last five starts, the Preds picked up seven of 10 points. The Predators continue to play Rinne over Saros in four out of every five games and if they do that again in the playoffs, they are going to be another first-round goner. If they play Saros, they are a Cup contender and it really is that simple. Rinne gives up soft goals almost every game. Loyalty is nice but it doesn’t win playoff series and until the Preds management give their collective heads a shake, we are going to fade the Preds often when they are favored because this is the time of year that every team takes on a playoff mentality. Aside from that, the Predators return home from an emotional four-game trip that ended with two games on the West Coast and began with two games on the East Coast including that highly anticipated and intense game in Montreal. Again, Rinne must be confirmed for this fade to stand.
