Monday 12/28/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Trial - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $8500 Class Rating: 95

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR FOALS OF 2013 REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THAT REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE SHUE FLY. WEIGHT:122LBS. NOMINATIONS CLOSE SEPTEMBER 15, 2015 WITH PAYMENT OF $950.00 AN ADDITIONAL $1000.00 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY INTO THE TRIALS. LATE SUPPLEMENT OF $10000.00 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY INTO THE TRIALS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 CHICKALONI 8/5


# 4 JESS BEER MONEY 5/1


# 8 VMR CHALAN 15/1


CHICKALONI is my choice. Could best this group of animals here, showing very strong figures of late. Has to be considered - I like the numbers from the last race. With a nice class rating average of 94, has one of the strongest class advantages in this group. JESS BEER MONEY - Is a sharp contender based on numbers put up recently under today's conditions. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the top class figs of this group. VMR CHALAN - Formidable venture today with second time Lasix. Profitable jock and trainer team, with a +15 return on investment.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 3:53pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 64

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 LOST KODIAK (ML=3/1)
#3 IM MR RIGHT (ML=4/1)
#9 ROMA'S TIME (ML=10/1)


LOST KODIAK - I'm looking forward to this mount to run a good one today. IM MR RIGHT - This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Radosevich. Look for this one to go all the way at some pretty good odds in this event. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the end. This horse isn't the morning line choice, but finished ahead of today's M/L favorite in his last race (December 12th at Mahoning Valley Race Cour). ROMA'S TIME - Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Cline enters him at a similar class today. I'd expect an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HENNESSY DAVE (ML=5/1), #1 QUEEN'S EXPRESS (ML=6/1), #12 WOLF CREEK (ML=8/1),

HENNESSY DAVE - 5/1 is not worth the risk for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint contest of late. QUEEN'S EXPRESS - This steed didn't go to the lead and didn't make up any ground in the homestretch last time he ran. This gelding probably needs a more hospitable pace situation to make his late rush. WOLF CREEK - This equine hasn't been in the mix in either of his last couple of races.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#8 LOST KODIAK is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,8,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,8,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #3 - Post: 1:36pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,300 Class Rating: 55

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 ODDS ON FAVORITE (ML=5/2)


ODDS ON FAVORITE - A big drop down in class figure points from his Nov 20th race at Golden Gate Fields. Based on that data, I will give this horse the advantage. Looking at the information on all of these horses, this is the only one to stalk. Worth a good look at this animal. I like this gelding. Has the highest earnings per start in this one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SHOT IN THE DARK (ML=3/1), #3 CRUZCAT (ML=9/2), #7 LEMON DROP MOUSSE (ML=6/1),

SHOT IN THE DARK - Oddsmaker's morning line of 3/1 make this animal a pass by my examination. CRUZCAT - I'm foretelling a less than stellar go of it out of him this time out. LEMON DROP MOUSSE - Difficult to bet on any thoroughbred in a sprint clash at 6/1 when he hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last 60 days. This entrant ran a mediocre speed figure last race out. He shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 ODDS ON FAVORITE is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [3,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Fair Grounds (5th) Three Padres, 5-1
(9th) Creator, 7-2



Mahoning Valley (2nd) Solar Maximus, 7-2
(8th) Summers Law, 15-1


Sunland Park (7th) Amber's a Player, 6-1
(9th) Jessica's Miracle, 15-1


Turf Paradise (5th) I'm a Bully Too, 9-2
(6th) Luz Atticus, 8-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
Most popular picks in Week 16 season record: 50-46-2

Redskins (+3) were 4th most popular pick; they played last night- W.

7) Browns +12 (335)-- People showing faith in big underdogs this week- W.

6) Rams +13.5 (353)-- St Louis lost its last ten visits to King County- W.

5) Patriots -3 (411)-- Don't get many chances at New England -3- L.

3) Vikings -4.5 (431)-- Going to be a frigid night in the Twin Cities.- W.

2) Steelers -10 (437)-- Jimmy Clausen is 0-3 against spread this year- L.

1) Broncos -3.5 (446)-- Denver could actually still miss the playoffs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Monday

KINGS @ WARRIORS 10:35 PM

Take: WARRIORS -12.5

It’s not so long ago that I generally wouldn’t even consider laying doubles in the NBA. But flexibility has to reign when it comes to betting on any sport and so it goes in the NBA. It’s no longer the worst gamble in the world to bet on the blowout occurring, and that’s the case tonight as Golden State plays host to Sacramento.

Note that as I’m writing this piece, the game is not on the board everywhere due to the status of Warriors superstar Stephen Curry. He’s nursing a calf injury and while he’s currently listed as probable, some books are exercising caution and have the game off right now. I used the Southpoint line, as that’s playable right now.

The game sets up pretty well for the favorite. The Warriors just don’t seem to suffer letdowns, so in spite of the fact they’re off the big game win against Cleveland, I’m not going to try and look for a flat mindset that might not exist. What does exist is the matchup. The Kings love to play as fast as they can, and so does Sacramento. These are the two quickest-paced teams in the NBA, and I think it’s safe to say the Kings don’t do it nearly as well as the Warriors.

The recent meetings between these teams bears out that opinion as Golden State has owned the Kings. They’ve won the last six by an average of 19 points per game. You can argue that’s small sample, which it is, but it’s also relevant in my opinion as there’s no reason to think the Kings are suddenly going to try to play this game differently than what is their norm. And as for the Warriors, if you can’t slow them down, you’ve basically got no chance unless they have an off night collectively. Golden State has one loss all season, so apparently that just doesn’t happen.

I made this number Warriors -18, and note I upgrade this team when they have two or more days rest coming in, as their numbers in that situation are simply ridiculous.

Assuming Curry is good to go, I expect the usual result tonight. That is, another big win by the NBA’s best team. The Warriors minus the heavy lumber are the choice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Monday, Dec. 28, 2015 2:30 PM ET

(237) PITTSBURGH VS (238) NAVY

Take: UNDER

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, December 28, 2015 is in the College Football Military Bowl between Pittsburgh and Navy. Bowl games always a bit tough on these teams as they usually have long layoffs between their final game and the Bowl game. Pitt played just over a month ago, losing their final game to Miami-Florida, 29-24. Today's game will feature the Pitt rush defense against the Navy triple option attack. Both clubs are rushing attack teams, so I expect a lower scoring contest here on Monday. The Panther's rush defense was ranked 19th in the country with just 126.1 ypg allowed. Navy gets a bit of home field here with this game in Annapolis, MD. Navy is a rush-triple option team, behind their 319 ypg rushing (3rd in the country). Expect a lot of ground and pound in today's game. I like the points here even with the game in Navy's backyard. Take Pittsburgh. Pitt had four of their six road games go UNDER this year, while Navy saw three of five home games go Under. I like this game Under as we see a ball control and field position contest. Take UNDER