Monday 12/21/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
Most popular picks 2-7 in Week 15 season record: 46-44-2

Jets (-3.5) were most popular pick; they played last night- L.

7) Bengals -4.5 (358)-- Lot of faith in first time starter, QB McCarron- W

6) Bears +5.5 (383)-- Chicago has played lot of close games this year- L

5) Broncos +6.5 (411)-- Will Osweiler lose starting job if Denver loses? - L

4) Cardinals -3.5 (442)-- Lot of trust in dome team; was 37 degrees at kickoff- W.

3) Giants +4.5 (505)-- It is comical how underrated the Panthers are.- L.

2) Packers -3 (551)-- Aaron Rodgers returns to Bay Area; he played at Cal.- W
 
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NCAAB

Notes for Monday's games..........

Akron is 7-3 vs schedule #267; their only top 200 win was at Arkansas. UCSB lost its last four games, getting swept on odd South Dakota State, Vermont road trip; Gauchos are 0-2 at home, losing to Oregon State/USC- they're in bottom 15 in country at getting to foul line. Big West home dogs are 2-5 vs spread; MAC road favorites are 7-3. Zips won last four games, have been off for nine days.

Providence star Dunn is banged up; Friars are useless without him- they beat UMass by 20 LY after losing to Minutemen the two years prior to that. Friars won last five games, are 5-1 vs top 150 teams; they're forcing turnovers 22.5% of time (#27). UMass lost three of its last four games, is 1-2 vs top 100 teams, with best win 82-65 vs Clemson on neutral floor.

10-2 Southern Illinois has jumped 47 spots in rankings since the season started; Salukis are forcing turnovers 23.3% of time (#12), are shooting 55.7% inside arc- they lost last four games with Saint Louis by 3-9-10-19 points. Billikens lost five of last six games, is 1-4 vs top 200 teams, with best win vs over #122 North Florida. Saint Louis dropped 36 points in ratings since season started.

Gonzaga has won at least 25 games in row vs Pepperdine; their wins LY were by 2-8-18 points. Waves lost last 12 visits here, with four of last five by 15+ points. Last four years, Zags are 21-13 vs spread as WCC home faves; over last three years, Pepperdine is 13-9 as road underdog. Gonzaga is just 3-3 vs top 125 teams. Waves lost by 14 to UCLA in its only top 100 game.

Portland is 5-3 in its last eight games with LMU; Lions lost last three in Portland by 9-7-3 points. Pilots are 3-5 in last eight games overall; they are forcing turnovers 21.4% of time. LMU is 6-0 vs teams outside top 200; they won five of last seven games. Last five years, Pilots are 9-12 as WCC home favorites; LMU is 7-11 as WCC road dog under Dunlap.

Santa Clara won three of last four games with Pacific; underdogs won all four games. Pacific coach Verlin is still suspended for off-court reasons; Tigers are 2-6 as home favorites since joining WCC. Broncos won three of last four D-I games, losing by 3 at Nevada last game, after starting the season 0-7- they're 3-3 against teams outside top 200. Santa Clara won two of last three visits to Stockton.

St Mary's won 19 of last 20 games with USF; Dons lost last 12 games in Moraga- seven of last eight were by 13+ points. Over last six years, San Francisco is 26-8 vs spread as WCC road underdog, 8-5 last two years. Gaels were 7-1 as home favorites LY. St Mary's is making 50.8% of its 3-pointers (#1); their only loss was by 4 at Cal. USF is 0-4 vs teams in top 200, with three of four losses by 7 or less points.

Wyoming won five of last seven games, winning last two by total of four points; Cowboys come to Las Vegas twice a year- they should be little less distracted. Marshall lost its in-state Super Bowl with West Virginia by 18 LW- they've won three of last four games after an 0-6 start. Herd is forcing turnovers 20.1% of time. C-USA road underdogs are 19-31 vs the spread. Mountain West home favorites are 11-18 vs spread.

North Dakota State won five of last seven games, winning last two by 2-9 points; Bison are #289 experienced team playing schedule #235. Idaho State is 1-5 vs D-I teams; they've been off for nine days. Bengals have #340 eFG% defense- teams shoot 57.7% inside arc against them. Summit favorites are 18-13 against the spread; Big Sky underdogs are 26-29.

Loyola Chi is #69 experienced team; they've lost four of last six games, and they've played schedule #233. Ramblers are 2-4 vs Top 200 teams; they do force turnovers 23.2% (#14) of time and make 39.2% on arc, but just 43.4% inside arc. Western Illinois is 4-3 vs D-I teams, upsetting the Badgers in Madison, but they lost last game by 7 at #334 Chicago State.

Northern Colorado is 1-7 vs D-I teams with two non-D-I wins; they have #344 eFG% defense- all their defensive numbers are bad. Bears won by 9 at home over Jacksonville State LY, after trailed by 6 with 6:32 left. Big Sky road underdogs are 19-25 vs spread; OVC home favorites are 8-7. Gamecocks are 1-10 vs D-I teams, with only win vs #334 Chicago State.

Oregon State is playing third game in four nights after beating Fullerton, Tulsa in pair of twinbills in Portland over weekend; Beavers won by 13-8 points in its two games vs teams outside top 200- their only losses were to top 30 teams. Quinnipiac has been off for eight days; they lost by 4 to Albany in only top 100 game- Braves are turning ball over 22.2% of time are shooting 39.9% inside the arc

Stanford is 3-4 in last seven games, but is 4-0 vs teams outside top 100, with three wins by 14+ points; all four Cardinal losses are to teams in top 50. Sacramento State is 3-5 in last eight games, taking shine off upset win at Arizona State. Hornets force turnovers 21.1% of time. Pac-12 home favorites are 35-20 vs spread, 6-4 vs Big Sky teams. Big Sky road underdogs are 19-25 vs spread. .
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Monday

745 SAM HOUSTON STATE vs. 746 UC IRVINE 7:00 PM

Take: UC IRVINE -10

If you want to have a very good idea of what betting lines will be for college basketball well in advance of the number actually being posted, there’s a very easy way to get this info. The very popular kenpom.com website offers projections on every D1 game. These numbers are almost invariably very close to where the actual line opens. The website is absolutely the nuts when it comes to the array of statistical data involved and the annual subscription fee is a drop in the bucket that you’ll profit from immediately if you’re researching matchups.

I always get interested when I see the betting line open at a number that isn’t close to where kenpom has it. Today’s game at El Paso between Sam Houston State and UC-Irvine is a classic example. The kenpom projection is Irvine by 5, but the true opener on this game was Anteaters -10.

This looks like a game where the physical advantages are all Irvine and that caused the oddsmakers to inflate the number in order to hopefully generate some play on the underdog Bearkats. Sam Houston won 50 games over the past two seasons. But the Bearkats graduated most of their top talent they’re really struggling to put the ball in the basket so far this season. Sam Houston is 5-5 thus far, but only two of the wins came against D1 opposition and three of the losses were by substantial margins.

Irvine is sitting at 8-4 and while I wouldn’t say they’ve been anything sensational, they’re also not underperforming expectations. All four losses were to better teams, and they’ve taken care of business against the teams they’re supposed to handle.

As for those physical advantages, the Anteaters are much, much bigger than the Bearkats. Sam Houston is going to have to knock down some outside shots here and also work hard to protect the glass. While it’s true that UC Irvine is not really a particular good rebounding team, they’re just so much bigger than this opponent I don’t see how they can miss getting some second chance putbacks.

I suppose there’s a small site advantage for the underdog with the game being played at El Paso, but I don’t see it as particular significant, and the most I’d award the Bearkats is one point. It looks like the oddsmakers didn’t give them even that.

This kind of goes back to an old belief I’ve maintained since I started betting back in the days when we parked our horses outside the sports book. If the guys putting up the numbers post one that is way off where it’s apparently supposed to be, trust the guys putting up the numbers. That’s the way I see this game, and I’ll go that route with a call on UC Irvine minus the points.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Monday, Dec. 21, 2015 10:35 PM ET

(717) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (718) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Take: (717) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, December 21, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and LA Clippers. The Thunder staying put in LA for a few days after playing the Lakers on Friday and blowing them out, 118-78. Now they play the Clipper and then again face the Lakers on Wednesday. The Thunder have won seven of their last eight games, with their only loss at Cleveland a few nights ago, 104-100. Meanwhile, the Clippers are playing their third game in four nights. They have lost two straight, getting swept in Texas by the Spurs (115-107) and the Rockets (107-97). The Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS their last six games. The Clippers haven't done very well at home, going 8-18-1 in their last 27 at the Staples Center. The Thunder have covered the last five meetings with the Clippers in LA and are 6-2 ATS overall the last eight meetings. The Thunder are showing they are one of the best in the West and they prove it again tonight. Take Oklahoma City.
 

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Amidst all the bickering and begging there are a few nuggets to be found in the chatter section. A few nice writeups. An occasional great trend from Vince Akins. And all the NBA previews in one thread. <><>

CPAW you may be able to save yourself a few minutes per day. Have you ever wondered if anyone here reads the horse racing write-ups? I've never heard anyone ask for horses, or any posters in this section even saying they bet racing. It's possible you could bag that daily hassle???
 

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