VEGAS RUNNER
vegas-runner | NFL Side Mon, 12/14/09 - 8:35 PM µŠ
triple-dime bet 134 SFX 4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 133 ARI
Analysis:
*** NFL MNF 3* GAME OF THE WEEK ***
(BODOG is USING 4.5....PLEASE WAIT UNTIL CLOSER to KICK-OFF to GET the BEST NUMBER POSSIBLE...I DON'T CARE WHERE WE GRADE IT...BUT I WANT YOU TO SEE THAT 4.5 is ALREADY OUT THERE...And we've seen just this last week, how important a 1/2 point can be...VR)
2 Weeks ago, we were able to cash with the Fav (Saints)...Then last week, we took the Fav (Packers) again...Because even though there was plenty of "public money" on BOTH...I knew that the "respect" given to the line, was based on Wiseguy Money...And although I like to know what the public is up to, as a way to guage "public perception"...the bottom line is that I'm not going to allow the way they bet a game to decide what I'm going to do with it...But that's not the case with the way that I deal with "Wiseguy Money"...
I bring this up because tonight, we have a "Line-Move" that resembles last week's Packers game...And in that one, we rode with the "public" and I had no problem doing so because I felt the number was short...and the Wiseguys helped "confirm that"...
This week...the "line move" isn't based on "Wiseguy Money"...In fact, the "move" is based on "public money"...and so much "pending" wagers from Sunday, on the Favorite (Arizona)...
Because of this, we have plenty of Value by betting the 49ers...
According to this line...the bookmakers are saying that the Cards are over a TD better than SF on a neutral field...And I just don't believe that to be the case at all...
In fa�ct, we had ARZ last week on SNF...and it was that game, which helps us out tonight as well...Because it was on a national stage, and they beat a MIN team that was bet on heavily that night by the public...This time, they are a week late with Arizona...
In closing, I always say that you can't make a living fading the betting public anymore...But with that said, there are times that going against them...when the Wiseguys aren't involved, offers us excellent value on "Prime-Time" games...And tonight, that's the main reason that we are getting so many with SF...VR
