Monday 12/1/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Monday 12/1 Analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: FASHION GODDESS (3rd)

Spot Play: WHIPPET GOOD (10th)


Race 1

(5) AISLING has hit the board in four of his last five starts and the veteran trotter hails from the Richard Moreau barn. (8) THE ONLY ONE finds himself in new territory this evening as the five-year-old enters a claiming event this evening for owner/trainer AJ Moore. (1) DEVRIES HANOVER draws the rail and is fresh off a win for trainer Vic Puddy.

Race 2

(8) SHARK LEAP HANOVER can’t get overlooked in this class as the gelding has hit the board in each of his last three starts for trainer Cheryl Bloomfield. (2) NINETYMILE HANOVER finally draws an inside post this week for trainer Carmen Auciello, and driver Anthony MacDonald will certainly make the most of it. (3) CHATTANOOGA JIM shows 1:52 3/5 speed just two starts ago for trainer Mike Bishop and that type of performance makes him a top candidate in this field.

Race 3

(2) FASHION GODDESS was a vet scratch sick on November but still stands out in this spot. (5) CASH FOR GOLD raced very well last week for trainer/driver Michael Vanderkemp as the son of Cash Hall finished second in this class under a hand-drive. (6) PAGE IN TIME has hit the board in each of his last two starts for trainer Bill Budd and the four-year-old has been offering a fair price as of late.

Race 4

(3) ST LADS PENNY LANE generally competes at a higher level, but the daughter of Million Dollar Cam finds herself against a much easier bunch this week. (4) KIKISKISSINKOUSIN overcame post 10 last week to finish third with the track off four seconds. (9) DAPPLE APPLE offers terrific gate speed and raced very well last week in this condition under new trainer Laura Winacott.

Race 5

(2) THE MUSCLER draws inside this week and if he can mind his manners, he’s certainly a top threat in this bottom-end classification. (7) DREAMFAIR BOGART was a winner two starts back in gate-to-wire fashion at this level. (3) SEAWIND PASCALE dropped into this class last week and immediately found the winner’s circle for trainer Ted Macdonnell.

Race 6

(3) ITS A GO will make his debut on this circuit and comes from the Joe Cirasuola barn. (8) VAL AMERICA has over $400K of back class and will make his second start for trainer Tony Montini. (9) THINKBEFOREUSPEAK draws outside this week, but is at a level where he should be very competitive.

Race 7

(5) HIS BOY ELROY finished second in both preliminary legs of the Autumn Series, before suffering a parked-out journey in the rich final from the 10-hole. (1) LITTLEBITASWAGGER remains undefeated in three career starts, draws the rail and has a lot of momentum coming into this contest. (8) BROWN DIRT COWBOY has hit the board in each of his last three starts, including a win last week for trainer/owner James Lamacchia.

Race 8

(1) ESCUELA makes his way into the Tony O’Sullivan barn and gets Jody Jamieson in the bike for his WEG debut. (8) ORDER BY COMMANDER drops in for a claiming tag this week for trainer Vic Puddy. (9) HOLY MOLIE MAGGIE has been shy in the win column this season, but can’t be overlooked for the triactor even with a post nine begin.

Race 9

(8) SI SEMALU was a winner last week in this type of class and has won three of his last four starts. (3) JDS CALEB MAN draws well again this week for trainer Carmen Auciello and has been a main threat in each of his last two starts. (5) BLUE CHIP SUNSHINE draws in the middle of the gate and hasn’t been worse than second in each of his last three.

Race 10

(7) WHIPPET GOOD has been knocking on the door in recent weeks and appears to have the most momentum coming into this dash. (10) ER ZACH ATTACK shows all kinds of speed over the Hoosier Park surface in Indiana and now makes his way onto this circuit for trainer Trent Stohler. (8) CROWN ISLE finished fifth last week, but was too far back to make up any ground.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Monday 12/1 Analysis + Pick Four Ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

7,8 / 3,4 / 1,3,8,9 / 1,2 = $32


Best Bet: ACTION-BROADWAY (6TH)

Spot Play: ARTIST NIGHT (10TH)


Race 1

(7) FORTUNE SAILOR looks to be in good form showing big bursts in his last two. (4) BOOKEM needed his last start and could have more to offer. (6) I’M LOADED also comes into the race on a roll but will need much more; use underneath.

Race 2

(5) SOULFUL DELIGHT is capable of much better and should offer a nice price. (6) VICTORY CANDY MAN was the top driver‘s choice and will be tough with an easy lead. (1) ERICSKARRI gets the rail with a top driver.

Race 3

(5) MR GREEN picks up a significant driver change and could get a good spot off the gate. (6) CHASE THE SUN was the top driver’s choice and needed his last start, however the pacer has been racing evenly as of late. (8) MORELAND FLASH disappointed last out but has shown the ability to bounce back with big efforts from time to time.

Race 4

(1) FORTUNES‘ JENNA comes into the race with some question marks but gets the best post and should have a shot late. (4) ASTOUNDING HANOVER is sharp, just getting picked off late last out; threat. (3) QUIK GROOM has been very competitive at this level.

Race 5

(4) NORMA‘S ROSE can beat this field with an early lead and a good effort. (3) ALE ALE JANDRO is a well-bred gelding that looks to be getting better; threat. (6) CONNIE KEEPER has made the most money in the field on the year but could need a start after being off over a month.

Race 6

(2) ACTION-BROADWAY comes into the race off a long layoff but if ready would crush this field. (6) SENOR GLIDE makes his second start off a layoff, should have more to offer, and gets sent out for capable connections. (7) CHANGE THE FUTURE scored a nice victory but will have a much tougher time against this bunch; use underneath.

Race 7

In an inconsistent field, (1) LEAP OF FAITH has two wins in 37-plus starts, but has been close against better. (2) CHARLIE B gets a huge driver change and should be in line for a nice trip. (6) UBETTERUBETTERUBET was overmatched last out, but should be able to compete for a piece at this level.

Race 8

The driver opted elsewhere, but if (8) MYTHICAL HALL gets the top he’s very dangerous. (7) THE NORTHERN DUDE was the driver‘s choice off a nice victory and could have more to offer. (6) ZORGWIJK HEAVENLY will offer a great price, has beaten these before, and picks back up the top driver.

Race 9

(4) TOP OF THE MARK was a game winner last out and will be firing with a purpose early. (3) BETTOR’S CHOICE just missed at this level last out and gets a huge driver change. (1) ONHISHONOR HANOVER is on a nice roll but will need much more to beat this bunch; use underneath.

Race 10

(8) ARTIST NIGHT has been facing much tougher and gets sent out for the top barn in the country. (3) JUST CROWNED has some question marks but a good effort makes him tough to catch; fires early. (1) FANCY CREEK ELUSIV has tons of ability but has had trouble in the past getting around a small track; use caution.

Race 11

(2) BETTOR WIN is super sharp right now in a new barn and faces few threats in the race. (1) BOLERO ANDREW takes a huge jump up in class but did win last out parked the mile. The pacer looks to be in line for an excellent trip and could have a crack at the top choice late. (5) LEGAL BRIEF has shown a good burst of speed at times but will need some racing luck to hit the top spot.

Race 12

(9) HUSTILINHANNAH picks back up the top driver that had really done well with her prior. (5) WIND SURGER owns all the back class but has been disappointing in his last few. (4) IMJISPINETANKU is the sleeper in the race picking up an aggressive driver that will likely try rolling the dice early.

Race 13

(9) JAGGER BLUE CHIP has dominated this level since being acquired by the current connections. (6) HEAD OF THE BARN picks up a huge driver change and is capable of pacing a fast mile. (2) IMA NUISANCE has been very competitive at this level and will offer a big price.

Race 14

(6) TUNEARIFFIC is just now back in racing shape and owns a class edge on most of the field. (1) BEANS AND WEENIES went a very tough trip last out and should benefit from the best post. (3) STORMY WEST is a well-bred stallion that went a nice effort last out from a tough post; threat.

Race 15

In a wide open and evenly matched race, (9) PRO DUECE is a smooth trip away from having a chance at a price. (5) SHARP RETURNS went a really nice effort first start over the track last race. (4) TRUE TO MACH is tough to endorse on the top spot and has tailed off; command a price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 12/1 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS


MEET STATS: 355 - 1344 / $2,360.90 BEST BETS: 30 - 110 / $137.20

Best Bet: BAGS OF MONEY (7th)

Spot Play: GYMOKEE JERRY (12th)


Race 1

(2) FOX VALLEY IBIS is back at Yonkers where he was a game second two starts ago; gets the call. (6) SLAM DUNK HANOVER put in a good qualifier at Monticello last time out. (3) DOCS HOBO got the job done in his most recent outing.

Race 2

(1) WELL CONNECTED KID did not have it at Philly last time out. Should appreciate the return to the Hilltop where he has done his best. (2) IBANEZ just got up last out for win honors in his Pocono finale. (5) IPO BLUE CHIP could land a share of the purse.

Race 3

(1) BIG PAYOUT just missed the victory in his last start. Gelding can put his best foot forward against these. (4) PHOTO RULES has early zip and could contend in here. (5) MACKS GOLD BAND was sent down the road last out for all the glory.

Race 4

Will give (6) WESTERN CREDIT the call to mow these down at his best. (2) GLIDING TO GLORY got the job done last time around at Saratoga. (4) PINE TAB gets some class relief; watch out.

Race 5

(1) GO WEST LUCKY CAM gets the best of the draw and this gelding can boss these with a perfect trip. (3) TALKTOMECOURAGE N was used up in the early stages last time out. (2) TAILLIGHT HANOVER could land a share.

Race 6

(2) IM BLUE TOO closed strongly for the show spot in his last try. Gelding seems to be ready to take this group to task for all the marbles. (4) GREYSTONE CASH was second best last time out; threat. (1) WATERSIDE CHAMP should fare much better from the fence.

Race 7

(1) BAGS OF MONEY is clearly knocking at the door; ready to roll. (3) HAWKER showed tactical speed in his last two tries. (6) BOOTS N BOURBON completes the trifecta.

Race 8

Canadian shipper (1) MASSACAIA draws the rail slot. Sophomore trotter can get the job done at his best. (5) EASTER LEGGS has good early zip and should be a factor in here. (6) ROSE RUN NASH has every right to be in the mix.

Race 9

(6) THEREISAPACEFORUS moves back to the Yonkers and this pacing gelding can make tonight a winning one with a fine-timed drive from Dube. (5) CARRACCI HANOVER should do better from the 5-hole. (1) BEACHY DREAM could make some noise in this event.

Race 10

(1) REV IT NOW is ready to roll. Gets class, post relief and Kakaley has the assignment; the pick. (3) SUN OF A VICTORY was caught at the wire last out for the score. (6) GAELIC AND GARLIC moves down in class and that might help his cause.

Race 11

(1) JUSTCALLMERONALD put in a nice effort last time out. Good enough to make tonight a winning one. (3) MASSIVE TALENT returns to Yonkers where he held on for win honors two trips ago. (4) MARKUP HANOVER could have a say with these.

Race 12

(1) GYMOKEE JERRY posted two sharp efforts. Retains the rail slot seeking his four score of the year; threat at his best. (2) MOLIERE HANOVER moves to the two-hole and two starts back was a game second. (5) PANCHESTER UNITED fits well in here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Finger Lakes (3rd) All Class, 9-2
(9th) Trumpet Man, 7-2


Mahoning Valley (4th) Souladar, 5-1
(5th) Deemish, 3-1


Parx Racing (1st) Good Chemistry, 5-1
(7th) A Fleet Attitude, 4-1


Turf Paradise (3rd) Leo's Lookin, 3-1
(4th) Rare Courage, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 13
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 13!

(Rotation #476) New York +6 – The Jets are playing at home on Monday Night Football this week, and they get a Miami team which is coming off of a heartbreaking loss on the road to the Denver Broncos. The question in our mind is whether the Fins are going to get off of the mat and get up for the Jets, who probably have the worst team in the NFL. We know that quarterback play isn't going to help out New York all that much; the team is switching back to QB Geno Smith in favor of QB Michael Vick, and Smith has already proven to us that he isn't a starting quarterback. That said, for the most part, if the Jets don't get their doors blown off in the first half, they tend to stick around in games. This could be another one of those outings against a Miami team which just isn't built to blow people away.

Opening Line: New York +6
Current Line: New York +6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the Stats - Week 13
By Marc Lawrence

TRENDING THIS WEEK

The Miami Dolphins are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five Monday Night games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 13
By Chris David

Under the Lights

Miami at N.Y. Jets: Looking at all of the numbers, it’s hard to argue against the ‘under’ (42) in this matchup. Six of the last seven encounters have gone ‘under’ and the most combined points scored during this span was 43. Defensively, the Dolphins (315 YPG) and Jets (324 YPG) are ranked fifth and seventh in yards allowed. The problem with New York is turnovers and that leads to short tracks for the opposition. Part of that issue for the Jets has been the play of QB Geno Smith, who will be under center again this Monday.

Fearless Predictions

I’m starting to believe that I should stop offering up Team Total and Teaser picks and focus on the Best Bets each week. After dropping 10 cents, the bankroll fell to $50 after 12 ½ weeks but a perfect holiday has us nearing five units ($450) of profit. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 40 Denver-Kansas City
Under 67 New England-Green Bay
Under 51 Miami-N.Y. Jets

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jets look to play spoilers

MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-5) at NEW YORK JETS (2-9)

TV/Time: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Miami -6, Total: 41.5

The Dolphins look to stay alive in the AFC playoff race with a road win over the division rival Jets on Monday night.

Miami was unable to upset the Broncos in Denver last week, losing 39-36 but it did cover the spread for the fifth time in the past six games. New York, meanwhile, will come into this one after unexpectedly playing a Monday night game against the Bills in Detroit. The Jets were blown out 38-3 in that game to drop their ATS record to 2-8-1 this year.

The most recent meeting in this series was a 20-7 victory for the Jets as 7.5-point underdogs in Miami on Dec. 29, 2013, but the Dolphins are 5-1 SU and ATS when visiting the Jets since 2008. New York is 2-10 ATS off a division game over the past three seasons and 2-8 ATS in all games this season. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 39-22 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two out of their previous three contests since 1992.

CBs Cortland Finnegan (ankle) and Jamar Taylor (shoulder), and TE Charles Clay (knee) are questionable for Miami in this contest, while DT Muhammad Wilkerson (toe) and TE Jace Amaro (concussion) are questionable for New York. Jets QB Michael Vick (wrist, ankle) is likely healthy enough to play, but QB Geno Smith was announced as the starter.

The Dolphins were close to pulling off an upset against the Broncos last week and QB Ryan Tannehill (2,582 pass yards, 20 TD, 8 INT) was very impressive in keeping his team toe-to-toe with Peyton Manning’s squad. Tannehill threw for 228 yards with three touchdowns and one interception in the game. He has now had a passer rating of over 100 in three of the past four games, and will be up against potentially the worst secondary in football on Monday.

One player who has really stepped up his game for Miami is rookie WR Jarvis Landry (49 rec, 450 yards, 5 TD). Landry had his best game of the season against Denver, catching seven passes for 50 yards and two touchdowns. He’s now caught at least five passes in each of the past four games and has totaled four touchdowns in those games as well. He’ll have no problem getting open against the New York defense.

Defensively, the Dolphins are a very tough team to play against. They struggled against the Broncos last week, but are still allowing just 211.7 passing yards per game (4th in NFL) and 104.2 rushing yards per game (11th in NFL). The Jets offense is miserable and the Dolphins will look to cause a lot of turnovers in this one.

After last week’s loss to the Bills, there is again a controversy at the quarterback position for the Jets. While veteran Michael Vick (604 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) is likely the better option, New York will start second-year QB Geno Smith (1,459 pass yards, 7 TD, 10 INT) on Sunday, and he could be in for a long day against a very good Dolphins secondary.

The Jets would be wise to pound away with both RBs Chris Ivory (579 rush yards, 5 TD) and Chris Johnson (400 rush yards, 1 TD), because even though the Dolphins are not bad at defending the run, they are far better stopping the pass. The Jets will likely try to wear this defense out with a lot of interior rushes in this game and they’ll do their best to stop the Dolphins’ air attack.

The Jets defense is still allowing just 86.2 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL), but it’s the passing game which has given them problems all season long. This team is thin at the cornerback position and they just lack the talent required to stop some of today’s most potent offenses. The Jets gave up 38 against the Bills last game and will really need to find a way to make Ryan Tannehill uncomfortable in the pocket or he will absolutely pick them apart. The potential loss of DT Muhammad Wilkerson (49 tackles, 4.5 sacks) would be devastating for this defense if he does not play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 13

Dolphins (6-5) @ Jets (2-9)-- Miami won five of last six visits here, winning 30-9/23-3 in last two in series where road team won last four games. Jets covered against Packers-Pats-Steelers, all good teams, are 0-7-1 vs spread in other eight games; five of their last six losses are by 14+ points, evidence of lack of heart once they fall behind- they were outscored 56-9 in second half of last four games. Smith gets nod at QB for Jets, who are 2-4 at home, with losses by 8-7-14-20 points. Since 2006, Jets are 8-16-1 vs spread in divisional home games. Dolphins won four of last six games, losing last two on road, at Lions/Denver. Over is 28-10 in nationally televised primetime games this year. Five of last six Miami games, last three Jet games stayed under total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Recap - Week 13

Overall Notes

NFL Week 12 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-6
Against the Spread 7-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 10-4

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-5


NFL Overall Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 123-64-1
Against the Spread 91-91-4

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 110-75-1
Against the Spread 95-88-3

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 95-90-3


Thanksgiving Day Results

Underdogs went 2-1 both straight up and against the spread last Thursday, as the Eagles and Seahawks captured wins as road 'dogs.

Philadelphia (+3.5) blasted Dallas 33-10 while Seattle (+1.5) humbled San Francisco 19-3.

The 'under' went 2-1

Biggest Favorite to Cash

For the second straight week, Indianapolis (-7.5) helped bettors with another win and cover. The Colts watched Andrew Luck throw five touchdowns as they destroyed Washington 49-27 at home.

Biggest Underdog to Cash

The Chargers (+6.5) trailed the Ravens 30-20 with 6:13 remaining and 33-27 with 2:22 left before QB Philip Rivers rallied the troops on an 80-yard drive. San Diego received a questionable pass interference call in the end zone that set up a one-yard touchdown pass to Eddie Royal. San Diego closed as a plus-220 choice (Bet $100 to win $200) on the money-line.

Home/Away

Home teams went 6-3 in the early games on Sunday. Joining the Chargers were the Bengals and Saints.

Including Thursday’s results, home teams went 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS in the first 12 games.

Early Disasters

Pittsburgh (-3.5) lost to New Orleans 35-32 and the game wasn't as close as the final score. Including this loss, the Steelers are now 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in games played at 1:00 p.m. ET this season. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, its four final games of the season are scheduled at this time.

Pick the Winner

In the first 13 games of Week 13, the point-spread mattered in one just game. Cincinnati (-6) defeated Tampa Bay 14-13 but failed to cover the number. The win helped the Bengals go 3-0 in their rare three-game road trip.

North Exposed

Last week, the AFC North became the first division in NFL history to have all of its teams at least three games over .500 at the same time. Like clockwork, the division went 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on Sunday. The Bengals were the only team to win and not cover.

Southern Comfort

The Falcons kept their playoff hopes alive as they defeated Arizona 29-18 as one-point home underdogs. Atlanta and New Orleans are tied for first place in the NFC South at 5-7 but the Falcons own the head-to-head tiebreaker and their 4-0 in the division.

Totals

The scoreboard operator was working hard on Sunday as the 'over' went 7-2 in the first nine games. Most of the results were wire-to-wire winners too. The 'over' was 6-3 in the 1st half during the early games.

The Rams (52), Colts (49) and Texans (45) didn't need help from their opponents as they scored more than the closing total in their respective games.

Arizona's late touchdown and two-point conversion helped 'over' bettors. The Falcons won 29-18 and the last eight pushed the game 'over' the closing number (45)

The Patriots-Packers game had the highest total (57.5) on the board and it fell 'under' as Green Bay won 26-21.

Notable streaks that were extended and came to a close are listed below.

The Redskins were on a great 'under' streak (5-0) but that ended is they gave up 49 points to the Colts.

The ‘under’ has now cashed in six straight for Tampa Bay.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dolphins or Jets? NFL bloggers debate who will cover Monday night

A good ol' fashioned AFC East rivalry takes center stage on Monday Night Football as the Miami Dolphins visit the New York Jets. Oddsmakers opened the Dophins as 4.5 or 5-point favorites depending on where you shop, but that has moved up to -7.

In order to get a grasp on this primetime matchup, we’ve enlisted the help of those who know these teams the best. Expert NFL bloggers Kevin Nogle Miami blog The Phinsider and Joe Caporoso of New York blog Turn on the Jets strap on the pads and debate which team will not only win, but cover the spread Monday night.

WHY THE DOLPHINS WILL COVER

Kevin Nogle is the Managing Editor of The Phinsider. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @thephinsider.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Geno Smith

The Dolphins are seeing their young quarterback take a step forward and are starting to get their offense into rhythm. Over the past four weeks, Tannehill has a 127.7 passer rating. He's been playing extremely well, and, most importantly, he is not turning over the ball. Last week's interception was the result of a ball bouncing off a receiver's hands and up in the air where it could be picked. Tannehill really is playing well, while the Jets have struggled no matter who is under center. They return to Geno Smith this week, who is dead last in passer rating entering this week, among qualified quarterbacks, and that's not a good stat on a normal day. This week, it could be even worse because...

Miami's Defense

Even after allowing Peyton Manning to be Peyton Manning last week against the Denver Broncos, the Dolphins are still fourth in the league in pass defense (compared to the Jets who are last in pass offense this season). They have 31 sacks this season, tied for fourth in the league. Brent Grimes is second in the league in interceptions with five. Miami is a little worse on rush defense, especially after being torched for 200 yards last week, but they are still 11th in the league and only allowing 104 yards per game, on average. This is not an ideal matchup for a young quarterback trying to regain confidence after having been benched, especially since this defense is probably coming into this game mad after being embarrassed last week.

Playoff Push

The Dolphins players are sick of hearing about the streak of non-playoff appearances (going back to a one-and-done 2008 campaign, and back to 2000 since their last playoff win). They want to win. Cameron Wake has never made the playoffs, just to put into context how long it has been since Miami has made the postseason tournament. Last year, the team had a chance, needing one win in their last two games, but lost 19-0 to the Buffalo Bills and 20-7 to the Jets. They are hungry, and they realize that, to make the playoffs, they have to take care of business in the division and against bad teams. The Jets fit both of those definitions. I expect Miami to come out hot in this game and look to put behind them last year's failure, and last week's loss to the Broncos (though, they did cover in Denver and are 6-2 the last eight weeks against the spread, missing those two spreads by a combined total of 2.5 points).


WHY THE JETS WILL COVER

Joe Caporoso is the Owner/Editor-In-Chief of Turn On The Jets. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @TurnOnTheJets.

The Random Sign Of Life

The Jets faced a similar match-up a few weeks ago at home versus the Pittsburgh Steelers They were heavy underdogs and coming off an ugly loss but showed up to pull off the upset. Perhaps they catch Miami on cruise control, thinking they will roll to an easy win and are able force themselves into a competitive game.

Geno?

It feels silly to have any faith in Geno Smith but maybe a few weeks on the bench did him well. Smith beat the Dolphins in Miami in Week 17 of last season, actually outplaying Ryan Tannehill...my how times have changed.

Beat Up Secondary

If Smith is competent, the Jets should be able to take advantage of a beat up Dolphins secondary with Eric Decker, Percy Harvin and Jeremy Kerley.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL game roundup: Rodgers wins showdown against Brady
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

GREEN BAY, Wis. -- The Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots 26-21 in a potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday at Lambeau Field, and Aaron Rodgers bested Tom Brady in the first meeting between the star quarterbacks as starters.

In a battle between two of the hottest teams in the NFL, the Packers won for the eighth time in nine games as Rodgers threw for 368 yards and two touchdowns.

Needing a touchdown on a possession that started with 8:35 remaining, Patriots coach Bill Belichick rolled the dice on fourth-and-3 near midfield. The Packers rushed six but Brady hit receiver Julian Edelman for a gain of 5. Then, on third-and-7, Brady connected with tight end Rob Gronkowski for 10. LeGarrette Blount then thundered for 12 to the Packers' 21.

Brady nearly gave the Patriots the lead with a perfectly placed pass but Gronkowski lost control of the ball diving in front of safety HaHa Clinton-Dix, who helped poke the ball loose in the end zone. A sack on third down brought Stephen Gostkowski on, but he missed a 47-yard field goal with 2:40 remaining.

The Packers were able to convert a third-and-5 with just over two minutes remaining when Rodgers found crossing wide receiver Randall Cobb for a gain of 7 against tight coverage from cornerback Kyle Arrington and safety Devin McCourty.

The Packers, Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals are all 9-3 and atop the NFC.

New England (9-3), which had blown out first-place teams the past three weeks, had its seven-game winning streak snapped. Brady threw for 245 yards.


Broncos 29, Chiefs 16

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- A dominating first-quarter performance helped Denver top Kansas City. The victory lifted the Broncos (9-3) into a tie with New England for the best record in the AFC.

In the game's first 15 minutes, the Broncos rode the legs of running back C.J. Anderson and reached the end zone on a pair of touchdown passes from quarterback Peyton Manning. The Denver defense was just as dominating, holding the Chiefs to minus-10 yards in the first quarter. The Broncos' lead became 17-0 in the second quarter before the Kansas City offense picked up its initial first down.

Anderson was the offensive star for the Broncos, running for 168 yards and catching a 15-yard touchdown pass, while Manning threw for 179 yards and two touchdowns. New kicker Connor Barth added five field goals.


Chargers 34, Ravens 33

BALTIMORE -- Philip Rivers threw a go-ahead 1-yard touchdown to Eddie Royal with 38 seconds left in the game and San Diego got a boost to its playoff hopes with a victory over Baltimore.

San Diego and Baltimore entered the game at 7-4, and the Chargers' victory means they own the tiebreaker if the teams finish tied for a wild-card spot. San Diego overcame a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to pull out the win.

Rivers completed 34 of 45 passes for 383 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Keenan Allen had 11 catches for 121 yards with two touchdowns. The Chargers were 9 of 11 on third-down conversions.

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco completed 19 of 31 passes for 225 yards with a pair of touchdowns to Torrey Smith. Justin Forsett had 106 yards on 24 carries, and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time in his seven-year career.


Falcons 29, Cardinals 18

ATLANTA -- Bouncing back from one of its ugliest losses, Atlanta recorded one of the best all-around performances of the season to beat Arizona.

Wide receiver Julio Jones and kicker Matt Bryant enjoyed career days for the Falcons. Jones caught 10 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown, and Bryant made five field goals.

Atlanta coach Mike Smith came under fire last week for mismanaging a late-game situation in a last-second loss to the Cleveland Browns. Smith's team came out inspired against the Cardinals, who dropped their second game in a row since losing starting quarterback Carson Palmer to a knee injury.

The Falcons (5-7) are tied for first place with the New Orleans Saints in the downtrodden NFC South.

The Cardinals (9-3) still hold a one-game lead on the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West.


Saints 35, Steelers 32

PITTSBURGH -- Drew Brees threw five touchdown passes, each to a different receiver, as New Orleans snapped a three-game losing streak with a victory over Pittsburgh.

The 13-year veteran quarterback, who finished one short of his career high for touchdown passes, was 19 of 27 for 257 yards with no interceptions.

Kenny Stills caught one of the touchdown passes and finished with five receptions for a career-high 162 yards. Mark Ingram also ran for 122 yards on 23 carries for the Saints (5-7).

Le'Veon Bell had 254 total yards while becoming the first Steelers running back to surpass 1,000 yards in a season since Rashard Mendenhall in 2010. Bell caught seven passes for 159 yards and rushed for 95 yards and one touchdown on 21 carries.

Ben Roethlisberger was intercepted twice and struggled until the game's latter stages before finishing with 435 passing yards for the Steelers (7-5), who lost for the second time in three games following a three-game winning streak.



Bengals 14, Buccaneers 13

TAMPA, Fla. -- Cincinnati maintained its standing atop the AFC North by holding off Tampa Bay.

The Bengals (8-3-1) got off to a sluggish start and fell behind 10-0, but their defense kept the Bucs in check the rest of the way.

The Bengals needed every stop they could get as they didn't muster much offense. Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton completed 19 of 27 passes for 176 yards and a touchdown, and the Bucs only managed 263 total yards.

Tampa Bay (2-10) let another lead slip away and maintained the NFC's worst record.


Bills 26, Browns 10

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Buffalo scored two touchdowns in a span of 10 seconds and forced the Cleveland offense to go backward for much of the second half.

The Bills have won two straight to improve to 7-5 for the first time since the 2000 season when they finished 8-8 and began a 14-year playoff drought, currently the longest in the NFL.

The Browns (7-5) failed in their attempt to win eight of their first 12 games for the first time since 1994 and turned the offense over to rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel with 12 minutes remaining in the game.

Manziel completed 3 of 4 passes for 54 yards and scored on a 10-yard touchdown run on his first drive. Brian Hoyer was 18 of 30 passing for 192 yards and two interceptions before being replaced by Manziel, who finished 5-of-8 passing for 63 yards. Manziel scored Cleveland's only touchdown on a 10-yard scamper in the fourth quarter.


Colts 49, Redskins 27

INDIANAPOLIS -- Indianapolis turned the ball over on its first two possessions and three times during the first two quarters but had more than enough to defeat Washington.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck threw first-half touchdown passes of 30 yards to Colby Fleener and 3 yards to T.Y. Hilton, and Daniel Herron ran 49 yards for a second-quarter TD as Indianapolis grabbed a 21-10 halftime lead. Luck finished 19 of 27 for 370 yards and a career-best five touchdowns.

Redskins quarterback Colt McCoy, who replaced Robert Griffin III as the team's starter this week, was 31 for 47 for 392 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Colts (8-4) drove 83, 80 and 68 yards for first-half touchdowns, seizing a 21-3 lead with 6:53 remaining in the second quarter.

Washington (3-9) has lost four in a row.


Rams 52, Raiders 0

ST. LOUIS -- Burying hapless Oakland with touchdowns on its first five possessions, St. Louis tied the second highest-scoring first half in franchise history with 38 points and cruised to a rout.

Quarterback Shaun Hill completed 13 of 22 passes for 183 yards and two scores for the Rams (5-7) while rushing for a third. His passer rating in the first half was 155.7, just shy of a perfect score.

Rookie Tre Mason picked up 117 yards on 14 carries, most of it coming on an electrifying 89-yard touchdown run with 11:14 left in the first half.

Wide receiver Stedman Bailey added 100 yards on five receptions, all in the game's first 12 minutes. Ripping through the porous secondary, Bailey notched receptions of 16, 34, 26 and 16 yards.

The Raiders (1-11) committed five turnovers.


Jaguars 25, Giants 24

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Josh Scobee nailed a 43-yard field goal with 28 seconds left to lift Jacksonville to an improbable win over the New York Giants.

The Jaguars trailed 21-0 in the middle of the second quarter but came to life with two defensive touchdowns and completed the rally with an 11-play drive. Scobee's second field goal of the game spoiled a return to Jacksonville for Giants head coach Tom Coughlin, who coached the Jaguars for eight seasons before he was fired following the 2002 season.

With public debate raging about Coughlin's future, the Giants (3-9) allowed 22 unanswered points before kicker Josh Brown made a 33-yard field goal to put New York on top 24-22 with 3:26 left in the game.

The Jaguars (2-10) then put together an 11-play, 55-yard march down to the Giants 25-yard line.


Vikings 31, Panthers 13

MINNEAPOLIS -- Minnesota returned two blocked punts for touchdowns, keying a win against Carolina.

Vikings reciever Adam Thielen blocked the first one, scooped up the ball and ran it in from 30 yards out to give Minnesota a 14-0 lead. It was the first time Minnesota had returned a blocked punt for a score since Oct. 12, 1986. At 453 games, it was the longest streak in the NFL.

Two series later, linebacker Jasper Brinkley broke through the center of the Panthers' punt team and got a hand on punter Brad Nortman's kick. Defensive end Everson Griffen picked it up and rumbled 43 yards to make it 21-3.

Teddy Bridgewater threw for two scores without a turnover for the Vikings (5-7). The Panthers dropped to 3-8-1.


Texans 45, Titans 21

HOUSTON -- Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 358 yards and a career-best six touchdowns in his return to the starting lineup to lead Houston over Tennessee.

Fitzpatrick, benched following a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles earlier this month, completed 24 of 33 attempts and posted a 147.5 passer rating substituting for Ryan Mallett, who was lost to a season-ending pectoral injury. Fitzpatrick tossed a pair of scoring passes to DeAndre Hopkins, whose 238 receiving yards represented a career best.

Texans defensive end J.J. Watt also got in on the act, catching a 1-yard touchdown pass from Fitzpatrick after his sack of Jake Locker resulted in a fumble. Watt recovered the fumble and his short return delivered Houston (6-6) possession at the Titans 24-yard line.

Titans starting quarterback Zach Mettenberger injured his right shoulder after Watt levied the blow that knocked him from the game midway through the third quarter. The Titans (2-10) have lost six straight.

 

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Monday Night Football betting preview: Dolphins at Jets

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+7, 42)

Geno Smith will step out of the revolving door to start at quarterback as the New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East matchup on Monday night. Smith, who has just one win in seven starts on the season, got the call from an apparent lame-duck coach Rex Ryan after Michael Vick struggled in another ugly performance for the Jets last week. Neither quarterback has made much of a difference for the Jets, who are ranked last in the league in passing.

Miami is trying to bounce back from a painful loss at Denver a week ago when it blew an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins have little wiggle room in their playoff hunt that has basically come down to a quest for a wild card berth after losing touch in the division race to New England. The visiting team has won the past four games in the series.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Dolphins opened anywhere from -4.5 to -6 and are currently -7. The total opened 41.5 and is up a half-point.

INJURY REPORT: Dolphins - WR Mike Wallace (Probable, leg), CB Cortland Finnegan (Questionable, neck), TE Charles Clay (Questionable, leg), CB Jamar Taylor (Out, shoulder). Jets - TE Jace Amaro (Doubtful, concussion), DL Muhammad Wilkerson (Doubtful, toe).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s and wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 6 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (-5.25) - Jets (+6.25) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -8.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Three of Miami's last five games are against losing teams including the Jets twice. The Jets couldn't take advantage of the Buffalo situation and were blown out in Detroit. They host Miami Monday night and are 1-5 ATS last six home games." Matt Fargo.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Although Miami is actually in 10th place in the AFC standings, it is just one game behind five teams battling for one of two wild card spots. Ryan Tannehill is having a fine sophomore season with 20 touchdown passes and he's second on the team with 276 yards rushing. Mike Wallace has caught a touchdown pass in his last three games against the Jets but he is dealing with a calf injury and has been outplayed lately by rookie Jarvis Landry, who leads the team with 49 receptions.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Ryan has been scratching his head trying to figure out who should start at quarterback and he's back to Smith, who went 10-for-12 in relief of Vick last week in a 38-3 loss against Buffalo. Smith lost his spot as starter a few weeks ago after throwing three interceptions on three straight possessions in a 43-23 loss to the Bills. New York will most likely be without rookie tight end Jace Amaro who is going through the NFL's concussion protocol, and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson with a toe injury.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 7-1 in Dolphins last eight games in December.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

CONSENSUS: 72 percent of bettors are backing the Dolphins.

 

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NFL

MIAMI (6 - 5) at NY JETS (2 - 8) - 12/1/2014, 8:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

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NFL

Trends

MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 7-13-1 ATS in their last 21 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games at home

 

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NFL Tech Trends - Week 13
By Bruce Marshall

Monday, Dec. 1

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MIAMI at NY JETS...Road team has covered five straight in this series. Jets 1-5 vs. line as host this season. Dolphins 6-1-1vs. points last eight in 2014. Dolphins, based on team trends.

 

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NFL Football Trends

NFL Football Betting Trends for Monday, Dec. 1

Miami at New York Jets, 8:30 ET
Miami: 11-2 UNDER versus division opponents
New York: 2-10 ATS off a division game

 

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'Monday Night Football'

The Monday night'r features AFC East rivals Miami Dolphins and New York Jets squaring off at MetLife Stadium. In their last game, Miami squandered a 28-17 third quarter lead losing 39-36 to the Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High but did cash as 6.5 point road underdogs. Dolphins with slim playoff hopes still alive hit the field 6-5 on the year with a 7-4 mark against the spread. Meanwhile, Jets off another horrible performance shellacked 38-3 by the Bills now stand at 2-9 with a 2-8-1 record against the betting line. The game matches up Dolphins' 9th ranked offense (25.9) against Jets' 30th ranked defense (27.5) and Dolphins' 8th ranked defense (19.9) vs Jets 30th ranked offense (16.1). The disparity in talent, Dolphins are handing Jets 6.5 to 7.0 points of offense. Jets with Gino Smith taking snaps the slump deepens. Lay the points, Dolphins have thrived in Jets back yard posting a 5-1-1 ATS record, have cashed 4 of it's last 5 on the road and 6 of it's last 8 as chalk.

 

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#1 Sports

Monday's free selection: Weber State Wildcats - 6 1/2

 

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Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR MONDAY: Take FORDHAM +5½ over Siena