Monday 11/7/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pelicans (0-6) at Warriors (4-2)

Date: November 07, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Two teams off to disappointing starts in their own way look to turn things around Monday night when the New Orleans Pelicans travel west to take on the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors, the two-time defending Western Conference champs, are coming off an alarming 117-97 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.

Already, Golden State (4-2) has two more losses than it had in its first 24 games last season.

Their four wins, however, are four more than the Pelicans have. New Orleans' season-opening losing streak reached six on Friday night with a 112-111 defeat at the hands of the Phoenix Suns.

The loss was New Orleans' fourth in a row at home, so maybe starting a three-game trip Monday isn't such a bad thing. The Pelicans and Warriors already met in New Orleans, with Golden State prevailing 122-114 on Oct. 28.

The Pelicans were short-handed for that one, missing Jrue Holiday (personal reasons) and Tyreke Evans (knee surgery).

They since lost Lance Stephenson to a groin injury that will require surgery.

"We're not getting the breaks," Stephenson said after the Phoenix game, during which he sustained the injury. "We've gotta get the basketball gods on our side."

The deteriorating depth seems to be having a negative impact on Pelicans star Anthony Davis. He poured in 95 points in New Orleans' first two games, then 53 in the middle two and just 32 in the past two.

One of Davis' big games came against the Warriors. He contributed 45 points and 17 rebounds to the opening-week loss.

The Warriors had one of their good 3-point-shooting nights against the Pelicans, going 9 of 28. They outscored New Orleans 27-15 from beyond the arc that night, more than accounting for the margin of victory.

Golden State has hit 41 of its 113 3-point attempts (36.3 percent) in its four wins, and just 12 of 65 (18.5 percent) in its two losses.

The Warriors were a season-worst 5 of 32 (15.6 percent) Friday against the Lakers.

"We're not going to be perfect every night, man," Warriors newcomer Kevin Durant said after the Friday game. "As much as you want us to be, we're not."

Stephen Curry's record 157-game streak of games with at least one 3-pointer ended in Los Angeles. He will seek to start another run against the Pelicans, who have seen Curry bury almost half his 3-point attempts (26 of 53) in their past five meetings.

The Warriors beat the Pelicans in 14 of the past 15 head-to-head meetings, with the wins coming by an average of 12.1 points.

The Pelicans will be playing for the first time since Stephenson's injury. Having joined New Orleans as a free agent in September after playing for the Los Angeles Clippers and the Memphis Grizzlies last season, the veteran was finding his way with his new team in recent games.

He began his Pelicans career with a total of 27 points and 16 assists off the bench in his first four games, then was much more productive -- 31 points and 13 assists -- in the club's two most recent games.

The Pelicans hope improved play from highly touted rookie Buddy Hield, who has shot just 31.7 percent in his first six NBA games, can help offset the loss of Stephenson.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Magic (3-3) at Bulls (3-3)

Date: November 07, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

CHICAGO -- They're each 3-3, but the Orlando Magic and Chicago Bulls have starkly different opinions about being .500 six games into the season.

The Magic are feeling better about themselves after erasing an 0-3 start with three straight wins. The Bulls are trying to figure out what's gone wrong after seeing their 3-0 start dissolve into their current record with three straight defeats.

"We've got to find a way to bounce back and get back to doing the things that made us successful earlier in the season," Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg told the Bull's website Saturday, after a lethargic 111-94 loss at the Indiana Pacers. "Eighteen turnovers led to 24 points, and that was a big reason we dug ourselves that hole out there. Now, it's a matter of getting back to work and finding out what we have to do, and hopefully coming out and playing well on Monday."

It won't be an easy task against the Magic, who just edged the Washington Wizards 88-86 on Saturday night with a strong effort from their bench. Jeff Green had 18 points in his new reserve role, Bismack Biyombo added nine points, 12 rebounds and three blocked shots, and D.J. Augustin chipped in seven points and five assists.

More importantly, the Magic came up with a number of key defensive stops in the fourth quarter, holding Washington to just 16 points on 5-of-22 shooting (22.7 percent).

"That's a sign of a playoff team," Magic coach Frank Vogel told the team's website after the game. "I believe defense and rebounding get you into the playoffs, and that's what wins in the playoffs. We didn't have a good offensive rhythm and we weren't shooting it well, but in the fourth quarter, it's the (third straight game) that we held (the opponent) under 20 points and were able to secure the victory."

Orlando's three losses were against teams that qualified for the playoffs last season, including the NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers. The Magic's three wins were against non-playoff qualifiers, the Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings and Wizards.

"It shows that we have the ability to bounce back from where we started," Green told the Magic's website. "It shows growth and improvement. We have to keep building from this, grow and right the wrongs"

The Bulls need to prove they're more than just Dwyane Wade and everybody else. Thus far, they've followed how Wade has played. Wade went 1-for-9 and finished with just four points against the Pacers, while Jimmy Butler and Bobby Portis led the way with 16 points each.

"I'm just going to have to lead the charge when it comes to coming out with the right energy, making sure we're doing everything we're supposed to on both ends of the floor," Butler told CSNChicago after the game. "I'm definitely capable of doing that, so I can't come out lackadaisical. I've got to make sure everybody is doing what they're supposed to do. I think that's on us. It's not even on the coaches."

The Bulls will play their fourth game without injured reserve point guard Michael Carter-Williams, who's out with a left knee bone bruise and left wrist sprain.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Monday’s games

Charlotte won its last three games with Indiana by 7-1-22 points; Pacers lost three of last four visits here, losing by 22-9-7 points. Hornets are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine series games- over is 3-1 in last four series games played here. Pacers are 0-3 on road this year and were favored in two of three; three of their last four games went over. Charlotte won four of its last five games (over 3-2).

Road team won five of last six Houston-Washington games; Rockets won last three visits here, by 6-8-7 points. Under is 3-1 in last four series games played here. Houston is 2-3 but five of six games were on road- they’re 2-2 as a road underdog- four of their last five games stayed under. Wizards are off to a 1-4 start; their last two games were decided by total of five points- they’re 1-1 at home.

Utah won its last seven games with Philly (4-3 vs spread); last five series games stayed under total. Jazz won last three visits here, by 12-6-28 points (under 3-0). Utah beat the Knicks by 10 yesterday; they’re 2-2 SU on road (over 2-2). 76ers are 0-5 already this season (under 3-2), but they’re 3-1 vs spread as a home underdog, losing by 6-32-2-1 at home.

Oklahoma City won three of last four games with Miami; three of last four series games stayed under the total. Heat lost by 18-25 in last two visits to OKC. Miami lost three of its last four games; over is 3-2 in their games this season. Thunder won four of first five games, with last four games staying under; OKC is 2-1 against the spread as a home favorite.

Orlando won three of last four games with Chicago; Magic covered nine of last ten series tilts. Four of last five series games stayed under. Orlando lost three of last four visits to Windy City, with losses by 8-13-5 points. Magic won last three games by 2-8-2 points; four of their last five games stayed under total- they’re 1-1 as a road dog. Bulls lost last three games by 7-13-17 points; Chicago is 2-1 as a home favorite.

Clippers won their last ten games with Detroit; LA is 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight series games. Pistons are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here, losing all five by 4-32-9-22-5 points. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven series games. Detroit is 0-2 on road (4-0 at home); both their road games went over the total, losing at Toronto/Brooklyn. Clippers won five of first six games (over 3-3); they’re 2-1 as a home favorite.

Golden State won its last eight games with New Orleans, covering four of last five; last three series games went over. Pelicans lost last five visits to Oakland (2-3 vs spread); three of the five losses were by 16+ points. New Orleans are already 0-6 this season, 0-2 as a road dog, losing away games by 9-16 points. Over is 4-2 in their games. Warriors are 4-2 this year, splitting two home games- three of their last four games stayed under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Monday’s games

Canucks are in freefall, outscored 28-10 during 8-game losing streak; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Vancouver won six of last eight games with the Islanders, in series where road team lost seven of last nine series games. Under is 3-0-1 in last four series games. Canucks won their last four visits here, with three of four wins in OT/SO. New York allowed 13 goals in losing last three games, the last two in shootouts.

Bruins won seven of last nine games with Buffalo; under is 2-1-2 in last five series games. Road team won six of last eight series games; Sabres split last four visits here (over 2-2). Buffalo won four of its last five games; their last six games stayed under total. Boston won three of last four games but they’ve lost three in row at home- over is 4-3 in their last seven games.

Florida won four of last six games with Tampa Bay; last three series games went over the total. Lightning lost three of last four visits to eastern part of Florida. Tampa Bay lost four of last six games, losing three of last four on road- over is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Panthers lost five of last seven games; three of their last four went over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Monday’s games

Charlotte won its last three games with Indiana by 7-1-22 points; Pacers lost three of last four visits here, losing by 22-9-7 points. Hornets are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine series games- over is 3-1 in last four series games played here. Pacers are 0-3 on road this year and were favored in two of three; three of their last four games went over. Charlotte won four of its last five games (over 3-2).

Road team won five of last six Houston-Washington games; Rockets won last three visits here, by 6-8-7 points. Under is 3-1 in last four series games played here. Houston is 2-3 but five of six games were on road- they’re 2-2 as a road underdog- four of their last five games stayed under. Wizards are off to a 1-4 start; their last two games were decided by total of five points- they’re 1-1 at home.

Utah won its last seven games with Philly (4-3 vs spread); last five series games stayed under total. Jazz won last three visits here, by 12-6-28 points (under 3-0). Utah beat the Knicks by 10 yesterday; they’re 2-2 SU on road (over 2-2). 76ers are 0-5 already this season (under 3-2), but they’re 3-1 vs spread as a home underdog, losing by 6-32-2-1 at home.

Oklahoma City won three of last four games with Miami; three of last four series games stayed under the total. Heat lost by 18-25 in last two visits to OKC. Miami lost three of its last four games; over is 3-2 in their games this season. Thunder won four of first five games, with last four games staying under; OKC is 2-1 against the spread as a home favorite.

Orlando won three of last four games with Chicago; Magic covered nine of last ten series tilts. Four of last five series games stayed under. Orlando lost three of last four visits to Windy City, with losses by 8-13-5 points. Magic won last three games by 2-8-2 points; four of their last five games stayed under total- they’re 1-1 as a road dog. Bulls lost last three games by 7-13-17 points; Chicago is 2-1 as a home favorite.

Clippers won their last ten games with Detroit; LA is 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight series games. Pistons are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits here, losing all five by 4-32-9-22-5 points. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven series games. Detroit is 0-2 on road (4-0 at home); both their road games went over the total, losing at Toronto/Brooklyn. Clippers won five of first six games (over 3-3); they’re 2-1 as a home favorite.

Golden State won its last eight games with New Orleans, covering four of last five; last three series games went over. Pelicans lost last five visits to Oakland (2-3 vs spread); three of the five losses were by 16+ points. New Orleans are already 0-6 this season, 0-2 as a road dog, losing away games by 9-16 points. Over is 4-2 in their games. Warriors are 4-2 this year, splitting two home games- three of their last four games stayed under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bills (4-4) at Seahawks (4-2)

Date: November 07, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

The Seattle Seahawks are struggling on offense and Pete Carroll has seen enough.

The veteran coach uncharacteristically called out the unit after two consecutive poor showings and is hoping to see a much-improved level of performance when the Seahawks host the Buffalo Bills on Monday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Seattle (4-2-1) ranks 29th in points per game (18.7) and 23rd in total offense (339.9) after the consecutive sub-par efforts. The Seahawks have scored just one offensive touchdown in their last nine quarters and suffered a 25-20 road loss to the New Orleans Saints last Sunday.

"We need to get out of what we've been in the past two weeks," Carroll said during a news conference. "This is not the way we want to play football. We need to fix this."

Part of the offensive issues can be pinpointed to the health of quarterback Russell Wilson, who hasn't accounted for a single touchdown over the past three games.

Wilson has dealt with knee, ankle and pectoral injuries this season and the Seahawks have asked him to curtail his running and scrambling abilities.

But Carroll said Wilson made it through the New Orleans game without an injury setback.

"He's getting better," Carroll said. "I'm really fired up about that and we're going to keep progressing as he is able and do what we can to get back to the kind of mix that we like."

Wilson doesn't feel the Seahawks are far away from getting the offense back on track.

"Just needs to continue being consistent," Wilson said. "Just takes one or two plays and we'll (get going). I believe that and I believe we'll make those plays happen."

The Bills (4-4) made a bold move by luring receiver Percy Harvin out of retirement and the reaction in Seattle could be interesting if Harvin suits up.

He was a ballyhooed acquisition by the Seahawks prior to the 2013 campaign and played in just six regular-season games over two seasons before being dealt to the New York Jets. However, Harvin returned a kickoff 87 yards for a touchdown in Seattle's 43-8 victory over the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.

Harvin played in just five games for Buffalo last season and retired last spring as hip and knee injuries wore him down both physically and mentally.

"Percy is a guy that worked so hard," Bills coach Rex Ryan said. "It's either full speed (or nothing), and sometimes you try to back him down a little bit, but that's why last year he was so frustrated that he wasn't able to contribute more to our team. He just needed some time away from the game to get healed up. So hopefully we catch lightning in a bottle so to speak and Percy is back to himself."

A healthy Harvin would be a big help for a Buffalo passing game that remains without standout receiver Sammy Watkins, who is on injured reserve with a foot injury. And Harvin said he is ready to help after the much-needed period of rest.

"It was time for me to just step back and let my body heal without training it, putting the time on it, and knowing I'm getting rest," the 28-year-old Harvin said. "I just wanted to take time off for myself. I was able to relax with my family. At this time, I'm just kind of getting myself together. I'm refreshed and I'm ready to go."

The Bills won't know until close to game time if standout running back LeSean McCoy (hamstring) can play. McCoy is sixth in the NFL with 598 rushing yards despite missing last Sunday's 41-25 loss to the New England Patriots.

NFL sacks leader Lorenzo Alexander (nine) also could be limited due to a hamstring injury. Alexander plans to play with the Bills having a bye the following Sunday.

Buffalo ranks 16th in total defense (360.3) but is tied for first with 26 sacks. The Bills rank third in turnover margin (plus 8).

Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense is again one of the top units in the league and ranks second in scoring defense (15.4) and third in total defense (319.4).

Veteran defensive end Cliff Avril is tied for third in the NFL with 7 1/2 sacks. Avril has been sensational over the past four games with 6 1/2 sacks and three forced fumbles.

Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner has a team-best 72 tackles while cornerback Richard Sherman and free safety Earl Thomas share the team lead with two interceptions.

The Seahawks trounced the Bills 50-17 in 2012 in Toronto in the most-recent meeting. Wilson rushed for three touchdowns and passed for one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bills travel to Seattle

NFL Week 9 Monday Night Football Betting Preview

Buffalo (4-4 SU; 4-4 ATS) vs. Seattle (4-2-1 SU; 3-4 ATS)

Odds: Seattle (-7); Total set at 43.5

Two slumping teams from different conferences meet on MNF this week and both would love to come away with the victory to revitalize their spirits heading into the second half of the season. Buffalo has lost two in a row after winning four straight and the euphoria from that four-game winning streak got slapped right out of Bills fans last week when Tom Brady and the Patriots dominated them from start to finish.

Seattle is 0-1-1 SU in their last two, but both of those games came on the road and being back at home should sooth some of the pain. The Seahawks still have a major concern with the play of their offensive line, and offense in general, but this Bills team has allowed 28+ during their two-game losing streak and facing this Bills defense might be exactly what the Seahawks need to see right now.

Yet, the biggest issue when breaking down this game is whether or not Bills RB LeSean McCoy will take the field. McCoy is 6th in the NFL in rushing yards with 598, but he's also missed a game plus and has put up those numbers on just 112 carries. Every RB ahead of him in total yardage has at least 153 rush attempts, so it's not hard to see just how important McCoy is to this Bills offense.

McCoy averages 5.34 yards per carry which is the best average for any RB that's been the starter the entire year (Jay Ajayi in Miami is at 6.29 but only recently became the starter), and as a team the Bills get 5.5 yards per rush attempt on the year. That's a solid number overall, but the bulk of that is because of McCoy and if he can't go, the Bills could be in trouble.

Seattle has their own injury concern as well that is directly correlated with McCoy and Buffalo's running attack with DE Michael Bennett on the shelf for the next couple of weeks. Bennett is by far the Seahawks best defensive player on that front line and not having him out there does mean that the Bills should be able to find a few more holes at the line of scrimmage, regardless of who's playing RB.

While these two injuries will have an impact on the game, I wouldn't be in a hurry to conclude that those absences equate to very few points scored like nearly 75% of the bettors already have. Yes, that ugly 6-6 tie by Seattle is still somewhat fresh in everyone's minds, but the Seahawks did manage to put up 20 on New Orleans last week in a loss and the Bills defense has been playing just as soft of late.

Buffalo is 4-0 O/U in thier last four games overall, and their lone trip to the West Coast this year already produced an 'over' in a 30-19 win over the Rams. The Bills offense with or without McCoy has to be willing to take some shots against this Seattle defense and the signing of Percy Harvin to help bolster the WR corps should force Seattle to respect the deep ball if nothing else. Furthermore, Buffalo is on a 8-2 O/U when coming off a loss and are 6-2 O/U in their last eight appearances on MNF.

Meanwhile, Seattle is hoping to get their own offense back in gear after some sluggish weeks and the success they saw Tom Brady have last week against this Bills defense has to help. Tight ends have killed the Bills for the most part this year with Gronkowski having a huge day last week and Seattle's got one that's eerily similar in Jimmy Graham.

Graham could be poised for a big night against this defense and that's something to keep in mind. Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that while these teams don't play each other often, the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 in their last eight meetings and that play has become a contrarian play this week.

Best Bet: Over 43.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday Night Football betting preview: Bills at Seahawks

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44)

Following a pair of six-point losses to open the season, Buffalo Bills coach Rex Ryan opined that playing a difficult opponent might be just what his team needs to get back on a winning track. That mindset will be in play Monday night for Buffalo, which pays a visit to perhaps the league's toughest venue when it visits the Seattle Seahawks.

The Bills have dropped two in a row to AFC East rivals Miami and New England, prompting Ryan to basically concede the division, and a third straight defeat could seriously jeopardize their wild-card hopes. "Obviously this is probably another top-five team in the NFL," Buffalo linebacker Lorenzo Alexander said. "You don’t want to look that far ahead but each game is very important and at this point we still control our own destiny, but we’ve got to get back on a winning row here." Seattle also needs to get back in the win column after coming up empty in back-to-back road games, falling at New Orleans last weekend following a tie at Arizona. The Seahawks are a different animal at CenturyLink Field with a 3-0 record this season, although two of the wins have come by two points.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 7-point home favorites and, despite a brief drop to -6.5 on Tuesday, remain at that opening fugure of -7 on Sunday night. The total hit the betting board at 44, dropped briefly to 43.5 and return to the original number of 44 by game day.

WEATHER: The conditions in Seattle are expected to be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 60's and a 15 percent chance of rain showers for Monday Night Football. The humididy level will be high (75 percent) and a slight breeze will not be a factor.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Bills hold the offensive edge in this game, averaging 26.5 points per game and 5.8 yards per play, compared to Seattle's 18.7 ppg and 5.6 yppl. However, the Seahawks hold the defensive edge, allowing just 15.6 points per game and 5.1 yards per play this season, compared to a Buffalo defense that permits 21.5 ppg and 5.9 yppl this season." - Steve Merril.

INJURIES:

Bills - TE C. Clay (probable, knee), RB L. McCoy (probable, hamstring), WR R. Woods (probable, foot), WR M. Goodwin (probable, concussion), T C. Glenn (questionable, ankle), T S. Henderson (questionable, back), WR B. Tate (questionable, concussion), LB L. Alexander (questionable, hamstring), RB R. Bush (questionable, groin), DT M. Dareus (out, leg), C P. Lewis (out, knee), QB C. Jones (out, shoulder), WR M. Easley (questionable, knee), WR K. Listenbee (questionable, hernia), S A. Williams (I-R, neck), S C. Anderson (I-R, hand), WR S. Watkins (elig Week 12, foot), TE B. Annen (I-R, neck), TE C. Gragg (I-R, knee), DB J. Dowling (I-R, knee), LB R. Ragland (I-R, knee), LB I. Enemkpali (I-R, knee).

Seahawks - QB R. Wilson (probable, knee), TE J. Graham (probable, knee), DT T. McDaniel (probable, undisclosed), LB K. Pierre-Louis (questionable, ankle), T B. Sowell (questionable, knee), CB D. Elliott (questionable, hamstring), TE L. Willson (doubtful, knee), S K. Chancellor (out, groin), DE M. Bennett (out, knee), RB R. Rawls (out, shin), DT J. Hill (I-R, hamstring), DT Q. Jefferson (I-R, knee), DT G. Smith (I-R, undisclosed), LB M. Morgan (I-R, hip), TE J. Sommers (I-R, ankle), WR T. Slavin (I-R, undisclosed), DE T. Barnes (I-R, arm), CB S. Jean-Baptiste (I-R, shoulder).

ABOUT THE BILLS (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U): The No. 1 topic for Buffalo is the health of star running back LeSean McCoy, who sat out last week's game after being limited to 11 yards against the Dolphins in Week 7. McCoy, who rumbled for 470 yards and five touchdowns in Weeks 3-6, was limited at Thursday's practice but expressed optimism that he would be available Monday night. "I feel good. Mentally, I feel great," McCoy said. "Just getting over that step of, ‘If I make this hard cut, will I feel it?’ I did it today, different runs. So I’m ready to roll." Quarterback Tyrod Taylor would benefit most from the return of McCoy, with the Bills' passing game ranking 31st at 179.4 yards per game.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (4-2-1 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U): Despite guiding Seattle to 10 points in the final five minutes of a come-from-behind win over Atlanta in Week 6, quarterback Russell Wilson has struggled over the past three games. Wilson, who battled knee and ankle injuries, has zero touchdown passes and one interception in the last three and has rushed for only 16 yards in 10 carries in that span. Rookie running back C.J. Prosise appears ready to assume a bigger role in the offense behind Christine Michael after accumulating 103 yards scrimmage last week. Seattle allows 89.7 yards on the ground, but defensive end Michael Bennett is out and safety Kam Chancellor likely is as well.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 6-0 in Bills last 6 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 Monday games.
* Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The bettors are backing the Seahawks with 52 percent of the wagers on the home favorites. As for the total, 59 percent of bettors are taking the Under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

'On the hardwood'

Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets November 7, 7:00 EST

Tough road ahead for Pacers who've lost all three on unfriendly hardwood this season dropping the loot in each contest giving up a whopping 115.3 points/game. Hornets playing tough defense allowing 94.1 points per 100 possesions in its first five contest expect Bugs to sting Pacers in front of the home audience. Consider laying the expected -3.5 points knowing the Hornets are 7-1-1 against the betting line in this series, Pacers are 2-9 ATS on the road netting < 100 points/game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MNF - Bills at Seahawks
By Kevin Rogers

For only the third time this season, an interconference battle will take place on Monday night football as the Bills travel to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seahawks. Buffalo has endured a roller-coaster ride through the first half of the season by starting 0-2, followed by a four-game winning streak, but the Bills are looking to snap a two-game skid. Seattle sits atop the NFC West with a 4-2-1 mark, while continuing to own one of the best home-field advantages in the league.

LAST WEEK

As expected, the Bills were not able to pull off the season sweep of the Patriots. After Buffalo shut out New England without Tom Brady in Week 4 by a 16-0 count, the Patriots ripped the Bills, 41-25 last Sunday at New Era Stadium. Brady torched the Buffalo defense for 315 yards passing and four touchdowns, sending the Bills to their second home loss within the division and third overall setback in the AFC East. LeSean McCoy sat out with a hamstring injury, but Buffalo rushed for 167 yards, led by Mike Gillislee’s 85 yards.

The Seahawks fell to 1-2-1 on the road this season after blowing a 14-3 lead in a 25-20 loss at New Orleans as one-point favorites. Seattle was limited to six second half points, while the offense produced only one touchdown, a two-yard run by Christine Michael in the second quarter. Quarterback Russell Wilson hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in the last three games, while Seattle has scored one offensive touchdown or less in three road contests this season.

SPACING OUT

Seattle lost only two home games from 2012-14, but fell back to 5-3 last season at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks have started this season with a 3-0 home record, but two of those victories have come by two points apiece against the Dolphins and Falcons. Seattle has covered only five times in its last 11 home contests since the start of 2015, which includes a 1-2 ATS record this season. However, the Seahawks have won nine consecutive home games against AFC opponents since 2011, while posting an impressive 7-2 ATS mark.

WELCOME BACK

McCoy is expected back in the lineup after leaving the loss to Miami two weeks ago with a hamstring injury. In three of four wins, McCoy has eclipsed the 110-yard mark, including a season-high 150 yards rushing in a 30-19 triumph at Los Angeles in Week 5. Former Bills and Seahawks’ wide receiver Percy Harvin will return to the field for Buffalo after ending his short retirement last week. Harvin was a member of Seattle’s Super Bowl winning team in 2013 as he returned the second half opening kickoff for a touchdown.

NO REX EFFECT

Bills’ head coach Rex Ryan is known as a defensive guru, but Buffalo has allowed 69 points in the last two losses. Buffalo is riding a four-game OVER streak, including consecutive OVERS in road games at Miami and Los Angeles. Last season, the Bills were listed as an underdog of seven points or more only once as Buffalo pushed as seven-point ‘dogs in a 20-13 defeat New England last November.

PREVIOUS MATCHUP

The Seahawks blasted the Bills in Toronto back in 2012 by a 50-17 count as 4 ½-point favorites. Wilson rushed for three touchdowns and threw for another, while posting 205 yards through the air. Seattle caused three takeaways, including a pair of interceptions of Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills are making their first trip to Seattle since 2004 when Buffalo picked up a 38-9 rout as 4 ½-point underdogs. Willis McGahee shredded the Seahawks’ defense for four rushing touchdowns, while Buffalo held Seattle to 230 yards of offense.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Joe Nelson says the Bills four-game winning streak simply feels like a mirage at this point, “After allowing 41 points at home in the biggest home date of the season last week, it is hard to the take Bills seriously as an AFC threat. The four-game winning streak featured some great fortune and while the Bills are the top yards per rush team in the NFL, Seattle’s defense remains very tough against the run. The Bills are the only team to beat New England but they did so vs. Jacoby Brissett and not Tom Brady. The other three wins came vs. teams that are currently below .500 though until last week’s 16-point loss to New England, all of the losses for the Bills came by six or fewer points.”

When comparing the quarterbacks in this matchup, Nelson notes the numbers don’t indicate much edge either way this season, “Wilson ranks 26th in the league in Total QBR below far less heralded players like Trevor Siemian and Cody Kessler with the struggles of the Seattle offensive line certainly a big factor in his marginal start to the season. Taylor is actually 8th in the Total QBR rankings after finishing 7th in the NFL last season, but his completion rate is down five percent at this point in the season and his passes are going for a yard and a half less per attempt compared with the 2015 numbers.”

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Buffalo

T. Taylor – Total Completions
17 ½ - OVER (-110)
17 ½ - UNDER (-110)

T. Taylor – Total Touchdown Passes + Interceptions
1 ½ - OVER (-140)
1 ½ - UNDER (+120)

T. Taylor – Total Rushing Yards
32 ½ - OVER (-110)
32 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Seattle

R. Wilson – Total Gross Passing Yards
259 ½ - OVER (-110)
259 ½ - UNDER (-110)

R. Wilson Total Touchdown Passes + Interceptions
2 – OVER (-150)
2 – UNDER (+130)

Will C. Michael score a touchdown?
YES +105
NO -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Post: 5:42 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$13000 - 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER COLTS, STALLIONS & GELDINGS NW 2 EXT. PM RACES LIFETIME PA PREFERRED MOHEGAN SUN POCONO DRIVER`S CHOICES: GEORGE NAPOLITANO #6 OVER #3 ANTHONY NAPOLITANO #7 OVER #1 & #8
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 7 FRANKY'S BEACH BOY 9/2
# 6 LOUIE'S SO BOSSY 4/1
# 1 CAPITAL BUILDER 3/1

FRANKY'S BEACH BOY has a really good shot to take this contest. He has been doing work very well and the speed figs are among the top in the group of animals. Could most definitely handle this field given the 85 TrackMaster SR achieved in his most recent outing. Really good driver/trainer, winning 32 percent of the time. Looks to be a magnificent wager. LOUIE'S SO BOSSY - Many harness players lean toward this gelding on the driver/conditioner figures alone. This nice horse will be greatly helped with Napolitano guiding. 22 percent winners the past month. CAPITAL BUILDER - Had one of the most favorable TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the field of horses in his last race. Must use in your bets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 7 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 GLASGOW KISS 2/1

# 7 ALL D' NIGHT 4/1

# 3 HAIL TO ROCKNROLL 12/1

My choice in this event is GLASGOW KISS. Last time out, this filly ran against a stronger bunch. In this field, this one is prominent in earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. She has very good class ratings, averaging 80, and has to be carefully examined in here. ALL D' NIGHT - Sanchez has recent return on investment figs which make this one a very good wager. HAIL TO ROCKNROLL - Has respectable Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet for this event. Bettors using horses with this jock and handler combo have done soundly lately.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Portland Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7300 Class Rating: 84

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $6,250, ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 3 IWANNABEADIVATOO 2/1

# 2 NIGHTWALKER 3/1

# 6 MISS NIKKI J 6/1

I've got to go with IWANNABEADIVATOO. She has been racing strongly recently while recording strong speed figures. With a very good 74 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this race. Must be given consideration given the class of races run lately. NIGHTWALKER - Handler has very solid win rate (20 percent) at this distance and surface. Could beat this field given the 69 speed fig posted in her last outing. MISS NIKKI J - She should be considered given the respectable speed figures. With a +1 ROI, this jockey and trainer duo has produced solid returns as of late for players.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Post: 9:44 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 68 - Purse:$5400 - 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UNDER - NON-WINNERS 3 RACES LIFETIME. NON-WINNERS 2 RACES LIFETIME DRAW INSIDE. FAIR RACES NOT CONSIDERED. HENNESSEY PICKED 8 OVER 6
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 OVERNIGHT SHIPPER 9/1
# 8 PC'S ALLEYWAY 5/2
# 6 SAKIMA 12/1

Look no further than OVERNIGHT SHIPPER as the bet today and could score at a price in here. The brain trust will always throw in a horse from the 5 hole here at Pompano Park, definite exotic possibilities. PC'S ALLEYWAY - A respectable play in here as he has one of the highest winning percents in the pack as well as excellent credentials all around. Surely think these two have a special working relationship. Sweeney sending the horse out means a really good chance to get the triumph. SAKIMA - Recent numbers for the driver - 25 percent win - make this gelding a top pick in the group of horses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Zia Park - Race #4 - Post: 1:32pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,500 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#7 GO FOR A STROLL (ML=9/2)
#5 DANCE IN THE RAIN (ML=6/1)


GO FOR A STROLL - A first timer with this trainer. Fincher wins a 33 percent of the time in these here situations. Don't often see a profitable ROI like +60. This jockey/handler tandem has done well together over the last 12 months. Gelding had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. A great handicapping angle is 1st time Lasix. Fincher gives it to this one for this race. I like that this first-timer has been working over the Zia Park oval and makes his debut here today. DANCE IN THE RAIN - Rodriguez and Buechler getting together are a handicapper's friend. Colt is a 1st timer whose last three workouts were on this track. The addition of Lasix might make this equine wake up and smell the coffee today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TIZ VALIANT (ML=3/1), #6 UNIQUE STORM (ML=4/1), #3 DIABOLICAL MILE (ML=5/1),

TIZ VALIANT - This racer hasn't been near the victor at the finish recently. UNIQUE STORM - Ran well to finish third on October 17th, but hasn't had even one blow out since then. DIABOLICAL MILE - This mount didn't go to the lead and didn't close in the lane last time he ran.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #7 GO FOR A STROLL on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:23pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#5 LOOKING FOR INFO (ML=7/2)
#6 JOVIAL JEWEL (ML=15/1)


LOOKING FOR INFO - Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a nice effort last time around the track within the last month. This filly is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. JOVIAL JEWEL - Getting a weight break of 6 pounds from last race at Canterbury Park on Aug 18th. This should help in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 DANZIG FLARE (ML=8/5), #7 HULA GIRL (ML=5/2), #4 GAMER BABE (ML=4/1),

DANZIG FLARE - Last raced on October 24th at Turf Paradise, finishing third. Not likely to advance off of that try in today's event. I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the task fulfilled from time to time. HULA GIRL - Hard to put your cash on the win end of any racer that finishes second and third as regularly as this horse does. Don't think this horse will make an impact today. That last speed figure was mediocre when compared with today's class figure. GAMER BABE - A pattern of dropping Equibase speed figures 71/64/44 for this questionable contender.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - LOOKING FOR INFO - After a 'vacation', has had a few races and today she enters a sprint race. Should be back in form, so I expect this animal to perform well in this race.
*


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #5 LOOKING FOR INFO on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 11/7 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 391 - 1122 / $2,133.90

BEST BETS: 51 - 91 / $169.10

Best Bet: SKINNY DIPPER (4th)

Spot Play: HURRIKANE ALI (8th)


Race 1

(1) GRAND MASTER steps up in class off an easy wire-to-wire win and when he gets live he strings multiple good efforts together; Bartlett drives again. (2) PASS THEM BYE N gets needed post relief and may be the main threat. (3) MAXI BON has disappointed of late but he's capable with a well-timed move.

Race 2

(8) GALLANT SEELSTER is stuck outside but with an alert getaway he's more than capable. (1) UPFRONT COUNTRYBOY draws well for the first time in a few starts and he's got the back class to threaten. (3) A PLUS HANOVER has Sears driving for Banca and he was a pocket-sitting winner two back.

Race 3

(5) VIVA LA VORACIOUS gets a nice driver change to Zeron upon arrival from Saratoga and faces a suspect group. (2) FRISKIE ZENA was much-improved last out. (6) MI VIDA returns to Yonkers off a big upset score at The Meadows and she debuts for Milici with leading driver Bartlett; big threat.

Race 4

(5) SKINNY DIPPER destroyed these three back and was respectable in the Breeders Crown; extremely short price looming here. (1) PHOOS GIRL has raced well since arriving here from Canada for the Robertson barn. (7) ART CRITIC has Brennan driving for Burke; tough to toss out.

Race 5

(4) FROG POND PRINCESS hasn't put in a bad effort in quite some time and the filly should be live enough to gun these down. (3) HOT LEMONADE will be gunning to the front but she hasn't proven she can last the duration. (8) HUG A DRAGONESS exits stakes events for Burke but is stuck outside; Brennan should be looking to improve position early.

Race 6

(1) BALLERAT BOOMERANG has been very sharp since arriving from the Iowa fair circuit and he goes second-time Lasix from the best post; one to beat. (4) ROCKET J is a big threat if he minds his manners. (5) DUKE OF DELRAY ships in with just moderate success out of town; maybe the change in venue wakes him up.

Race 7

(3) ALL DOWN THE LINE was a sharp second two back versus similar; 3-year-old could get the best of these in a field with no standouts. (5) MAURICE has a live move in him; watch the board for early Lachance money. (7) ROLL WITH FRED was much better last out but I don't have much confidence in him; use underneath.

Race 8

(2) HURRIKANE ALI is an erratic type, much like many of these McDermott 'Hurrikane' trainees, but he's very fast when right. (1) BRED TO RACE gets much-needed post relief and will be much more involved from this spot. (4) REGAL SIGHT goes second-time Lasix and I think there's more here than meets the eye; use underneath at a price.

Race 9

(2) PRETTY BOY HILL lands inside again after having his race cancelled last week; Alagna trainee should be ready to roll. (8) DERICHO has been sharp and fits with these; I can't imagine Dube getting away last with him. (3) MIDNIGHT PASS gets an improved post and Bartlett drives again; he can be close up and land a board spot.

Race 10

(2) IN THE HUDDLE drew away easily last out and is sharp enough to repeat. (4) ACE OF CLUBS was a strong winner in his debut for Allard taking his third straight but he has little early speed and needs a pace up front. (5) THE ROCK has held his own recently versus better, more seasoned foes; include.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 11/7 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


Pick 5: 2,3,6/1,2,3/2,4,8/4,7,9/1,2 = $43.20

Early Pick 4: 4,7,9/1,2/4,8,9,10/1 = $24

Late Pick 4: 3,7/3,4,8,9/3,5/3,8 = $32

MEET STATS: 462-1377 / $2415.90 BEST BETS: 73 – 126 / $228.20

SPOT PLAYS: 31 – 126 / $203.20

Best Bet: NEVER ANY DOUBT (7th)

Spot Play: PAR INTENDED (9th)


Race 1

(2) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER went another long uncovered trip last week yet stayed game and fell inches short. A slightly easier trip should be coming from the inside here; top call. (6) LIFEIMITTATESART was flying late last time and he should be closer early here; using. (3) GIVE EM HECK is a front-end threat again off the claim after holding on to beat the choice. (8) JENKINS CREEK came with a bold rush late circling dead cover to win last week and he's another in with a shot in a contentious opener.

Race 2

(3) MAJESTIC PRESENCE improved sharply to win for Henriksen last week, circling up off excess cover in an impressive performance; call to repeat. (2) I WANT KANDY made a remarkable recovery after breaking to win the other division of this series last week; using. (1) ONE TOO MANY was out the route last week which was a hopeless trip. The inside post gives her a better chance here. (8) WHAMBAMTHANKYOUMAM lost a deep stretch lead to the choice and now she moves outside; smaller share predicted.

Race 3

(8) MAGICAL VALENTINE wasn't far back from the 10-hole last time. The smaller field helps here and she may leave a bit harder this time; slight nod. (4) SUNRISE AVENUE should get a much better trip moving to the middle of the gate here. She should be a top threat. (2) DEVILS ADVOCATE has been coming around for Vanderkemp. A win here would be no surprise. (6) WORK THAT MAGIC will likely revert to a stalking style, which should bring a better result.

Race 4

(4) LADY JEN almost won when leaving from the middle of the gate on October 7th. Expect a similarly aggressive drive here. (7) TARAHUMARA raced much better last time at Flamboro in the slop and she raced well here earlier in the meet; consider at a price. (9) REGAL ROXY has been solid since being claimed two back; using. (5) GROUND SHAKER has a great record this year and she should be a speed threat, at a minimum.

Race 5

(2) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE made two moves last week and was only passed late for the win. I'll give her the nod here leaving from a good post. (1) TRILIFE had good speed early and late to win last week. You have to toss her on Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. (7) DRIFT PANIC may show more early foot this time in her 2nd start over the track; using. (9) TOP ROYAL is as game as they come, but post 9 could prove troublesome for her here.

Race 6

(4) ESCUELA was closing well late last week. She looks better than most in this wide-open head scratcher. (9) MJUSICAL SPELL was game despite being hung out last time. If he can clear quickly here, he may go all the way on the front. (8) P L HERCULES should improve with the class drop. (10) HUBBY NUMBER ONE fits this class well and he can share if he stays flat.

Race 7

(1) NEVER ANY DOUBT was just short in a game effort last week. She should be tough here leaving from the rail. (4) LADY MARINA can improve off last week's even comeback effort. (8) DOCS SAUSALITO is one of the better fillies in this series and she may bring another good price here because of the outer post. (10) LUCKY PLAYER may improve with Lasix added and crash the exotics here.

Race 8

(3) TYMAL WIZARD improved sharply last time when losing to a foe who was taking his fourth straight win; top call here. (7) GIRL DRAMA is in top form, but, notice that she is more likely to take a slice than a win most nights. (1) INCREADABLE FRANK can leave better here and stick around for a share. (4) MOST WANTED LINDY looks logical to hit the ticket as he has been doing most weeks.

Race 9

(8) PAR INTENDED responded well to McNair in the final 1/4 last week and produced an impressive late rush. That driver sticks here; call to repeat. (8) SPORTSMANSHIP went way too fast early last time and stopped badly. Back in with claimers, he should be able to get a breather at some point here. (4) LONEWOLF CURRIER stayed in last week in his first start over the track and got third. He could improve and get a more aggressive steer. (3) COBALT MAN brings good form with him from Flamboro. He is worth a long look here.

Race 10

(3) CATCH THE DREAM made a bold move to the front last time but he fell prey to a speed-killing surface. He can make amends here. (5) ETRUSCAN HANOVER roared up from well back to beat the choice then raced well in the Preferred. He is the main danger. (4) CASH FOR GOLD may find the two above too tough here; minor share predicted. (7) WILD AND CRAZY GUY can be a threat from on or near the pace, but he too is more likely to take a smaller share.

Race 11

(8) AWESOMENESS is on a roll and gets a positive driver change here. Expect aggression and another win. (3) CENTURY CHURCHILL took forever to break his maiden, but he is in good form and can take a big share here. (1) EAST END should race better here from the inside. Toss on vertical bets. (4) GATEWOOD should improve off his recent even effort. (6) ROCK POWER is a good one to use in the 3-4-5 slots here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Finger Lakes (1st) Straight Thunder, 3-1
(6th) Goodbyeguinnessbok, 6-1


Mahoning Valley (5th) Lena Love, 6-1
(8th) Crown Polis, 7-2


Mountaineer (6th) Famous Fighter, 8-1
(7th) Old Mountain Lane, 4-1


Parx Racing (5th) Arturito, 7-2
(6th) Miss Emiliy's Smile, 3-1


Turf Paradise (2nd) Summer Harbor, 10-1
(4th) Ruling Heart, 10-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 9 of the Westgate Super Contest in Las Vegas:

1) Denver Broncos, even (695)- L

2) Pittsburgh Steelers, even (605)- L

3) New Orleans Saints, -3.5 (575)- W

4) Carolina Panthers, -3 (525)- T

5) Philadelphia Eagles, +2.5 (474)- L

6) Chiefs -7- L/Titans +5 (472)- L

Season record: 18-35-2- rough year for popular opinions