Monday 11/30/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dayton Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 6:35 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$4500 - FILLIES & MARES N/W 1 PM RACE DAYTON RACEWAY J.BREWER LISTED 3-5


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 MIGHTY GOOD FEELIN 6/1


# 6 MIDNIGHT IN AUTUMN 7/2


# 4 BETTY FLYNN 10/1


We've got a vibe MIGHTY GOOD FEELIN is going to get the victory. Has great TrackMaster Speed Ratings and most likely has to be considered for a bet in this contest. Seems to have a really strong class advantage based on the field of horses she has faced. Don't let a fine animal with such a very promising winning pct like this be forgotten. MIDNIGHT IN AUTUMN - Should be in the hunt again in this one, looking to improve that already high lifetime winning figure. Battling competitively, achieved a very strong TrackMaster SR in her last affair (63). BETTY FLYNN - This trainer does formidable with horses coming back after a layoff like she is right here and is capable of winning right away.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 9:50 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 94 - Purse:$34000 - PREFERRED HANDICAP.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 8 FLANAGAN MEMORY 3/1


# 9 IL SOGNO DREAM 2/1


# 7 BURNIN MONEY 6/1


FLANAGAN MEMORY looks to be our best wagering option in this gathering. This horse looks very good. Take a good look at the 96 avg speed rating. Clearly the class of the group with an average rating of 98. A nice choice. That 96 speed rating clocked in the last race puts this contender in the mix in this event. IL SOGNO DREAM - Many bettors know speed is of the utmost importance. This harness racer has credentials with a 96 avg number. Enters this contest with really good TrackMaster class figures as compared to the group of horses - could be worth a shot. BURNIN MONEY - Could surprise us at a fair price. Don't leave out. Could surprise us at a reasonable price. Don't leave out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 66

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 BROADWAYDANNIEROSE 5/2


# 7 HONOUR ZONE 15/1


# 9 BOUNCE BACK 6/1


BROADWAYDANNIEROSE has a strong shot to take this race. Has competitive front-end speed and will probably fare soundly versus this group. Should be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed department alone. Looks strong for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races as of late. BOUNCE BACK - Is a definite contender - given the 56 speed fig from his most recent race. With a nice class figure average of 66, has one of the most respectable class advantages in this group of horses in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 100

FOR CERTIFIED ARIZONA BREDS) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL SINCE AUGUST 30, 2015 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL SINCE JUNE 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 SHREWD MOVE 4/1


# 1 SWISS IDOL 3/1


# 5 HAZARDOUS 9/2


I've got to go with SHREWD MOVE. With Shepherd getting the mount, watch out for this racer. Don't overlook this gelding in your wagers - very dangerous with Shepherd aboard. Looks solid to be up near the front end at the first call. SWISS IDOL - Will most likely go to the front end and might never look back. This gelding has posted some nice finish positions in his last couple of tries. HAZARDOUS - He has been running well as of late while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 1:46pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 MIDNIGHT IN OCALA (ML=5/1)
#7 NO GREAT SHAKES (ML=4/1)
#8 CASH IS PRIME (ML=2/1)


MIDNIGHT IN OCALA - My experienced judgement tells me to be ready for this horse in this event NO GREAT SHAKES - Likes to go to the front end and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be advantageous. Perez and Cannon perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +61 ROI for a jockey and conditioner. I do like the fact this filly is back in a race so quickly. Just look at her most recent speed rating, 53. That one fits in this group. CASH IS PRIME - This front runner should benefit from this race's shorter trip. I really like sprinters that make a fast turnaround. Another way to determine class is EPS (earnings per start). This horse has the highest in the bunch. I think she'll be close at the end.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MIRKAMURKA (ML=3/1),

MIRKAMURKA - Last raced on November 23rd at Parx Racing, finishing fifth. Not likely to move up off of that effort today. All types of crazy speed entered for this race. Slight chance for this front-runner.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 MIDNIGHT IN OCALA to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [6,7,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Zia Park - Race #8 - Post: 3:02pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 49

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 LADY SKY DUBAI (ML=9/2)


LADY SKY DUBAI - I look for this horse to sit chilly off the pace and make a strong move on the turn, cruising straight on to the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TEARS FOR BELLE (ML=7/2), #1 MAMAMA JOY (ML=4/1), #8 PROMISEOFVENGEANCE (ML=5/1),

TEARS FOR BELLE - You believe this equine is going to win just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish first often. MAMAMA JOY - Don't think this less than sharp equine is worth 4/1 in this race. PROMISEOFVENGEANCE - Just don't figure that she is priced right at the likely odds.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #2 LADY SKY DUBAI on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [1,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Monday 11/30 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1/1,5,7/1,3,5,8/2,3,5/1,2,3,5,7,8 = $43.20

EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,5/1,2,3,5,7,8/2/3,4,6 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 3,4,6/6,8,9/5/1,3,4,5,8 = $45

MEET STATS: 105 - 345 / $534.80 BEST BETS: 16 - 31 / $54.10

SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 31 / $99.80

Best Bet: MUSCIAL RHYTHM (9th)

Spot Play: NEW MIRACLE (4th)


Race 1

(1) SPORTS WARNING was only nailed late in a quick mile last week and looks best here. (7) REGAL FAME was a sharp winner in his 2nd start back and can threaten despite the move up to non-winners of two. This isn't the strongest group. (8) DIGGIN IN raced decently after shipping in and now comes back in a week this time. He should share.

Race 2

(7) COUNTRY PROPHET was on the move when he broke last time. He can get back on track here if he behaves. (5) TOWNLINE MOMMA is only a one-time winner in two years but was in good from before shipping in and can get a good piece of this. (1) PISCEAN is fast enough to beat this group but has obvious gait issues and the rail may not be the best post for her; tough call.

Race 3

(3) MACH TWO POINT SIX comes out of a race that was declared a no contest at the half. He was prominent at that point and more of the same is expected here. (8) FOREGO THE CIGAR drops into a claimer for a dangerous outfit and could wake up at a big price here. (1) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT also drops back to the level he was claimed at and merits respect.

Race 4

(5) NEW MIRACLE drops back to non-winners of two and some of the miles he paced in late summer would make him very competitive here if he could recapture that form; price play. (2) SURE FIRED BET motored up late to upset last week and stands a chance here with the improvement he's been showing. (3) IWILLNOTBEMACHED lost all chance at the start last week but looks very competitive here based on the two miles he paced previous to that one.

Race 5

(7) CASH FOR GOLD appeared to be carefully driven last week when coming off a break. He could take this at a price if used harder here. (3) BAGS FOR ALL is the obvious class of the field but has missed a month. She's worth trying to beat in the win pool. (1) MYSTERY BET rolled up very late to win in this class last week and is usually a threat in deep stretch it seems.

Race 6

(2) J CS JAKE drops back to the class he last won after breaking stride vs. better. He should do here if he behaves. (8) LEXUS ROCKY raced okay vs. a dominant winner last week and fits well here. (5) BROADWAY PRINCE steps up off an impressive win but is sure to face quicker splits.

Race 7

(4) REASONABLE FORCE went a long mile last time and wasn't beaten that far. He can take this with a better trip and drive. (3) MR YOKASIPPI ships in off two impressive wins out of town and steps up. He should be in the thick of it late. (6) IDOLE DUHARAS goes for Auciello and Drury off the claim and they always do well at this meet; using.

Race 8

(6) FEARLESS MAN comes off a rest here and is quite capable of taking this group down the road if ready; top call. (8) FLANAGAN MEMORY was third in the TVG Free For All Trot last time which means he will be heavily bet here. He is an obvious contender but his style often compromises his chances on this track. (9) IL SOGNO DREAM has won three of the last four Preferreds and is the one to beat.

Race 9

(5) MUSICAL RHYTHM took a new life's mark last week and should be good for another here facing similar. (1) JUANITAS FURY was third to the choice - yet well-beaten - and should get a good following trip here. (7) LMC MARSHMELLOW is capable of getting closer to the choice if she can start quicker and get better position.

Race 10

(5) CAMS TUX was first-up last week which isn't his trip. He can win the finale if he can latch onto some decent cover. (8) THEPANINSULAHOTEL fits this class well and should be prominent throughout again. (4) INTENDED STYLE hinted at returning to his best form last week and will likely take lots of play here. (3) LIVE AND LEARN has a good shot to share starting from the inside and this trainer is known for clicking with some big bombs; beware. (1) BROADIES SONG earned a lot of money on this circuit in his younger years and isn't without a shot here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 11/30 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

MEET STATS: 235 - 1119 / $1,636.50 BEST BETS: 28 - 94 / $121.70

Best Bet: CARTOON DADDY (6th)

Spot Play: BITTERSWEET CHAMP (8th)


Race 1

(3) AUTOMATIC SLIMS has shown good early pace at Pocono. Hopefully the half-mile oval and Bartlett will get this 9-year-old back into the winner's circle. (4) LETS ROCK TOGETHER comes off a good qualifier here; could contend with these. (2) MISTER ACCUMULATOR should fare well from the 2-hole; maybe.

Race 2

(3) COOL LIKE THAT raced evenly in his latest at Pocono. He makes his return to the Hilltop and good to see Sears with the call; can take this with a favorable trip. (5) RED ROCK was nailed for win honors at Freehold last time out; quite dangerous. (6) MYBROTHERGEORGE might find this group to his liking; we shall see.

Race 3

(5) INTHEPERFECTSTORM closed strongly for the third spot two trips ago at Pocono. Gelding has good tactical speed and could top these with a fine-timed drive from Sears. (1) ROETHBLISSBERGER retains the rail slot and has raced quite well of late; threat. (4) THEREISPACEFORUS made a nice move at the 3/4 pole but tired in the final stretch drive recently; not out of this.

Race 4

(3) FAN MAIL is back at Yonkers where she was a game third three starts back. With a ground saving trip, this gal could take these to task for all the cash. (1) SHES A PANSATION was sent down the road last time out for all the glory; moves to the rail and appears to be the one to beat. (2) RAVENNA STAR could make some noise in deep stretch.

Race 5

(3) BABES I SCOOT was sharp in victory last out. It's nice to see Kakaley with the return call and he should be poised to make it two straight. (1) REPORT FOR DUTY N has put in three sharp efforts and the rail slot makes him a major player in here. (4) BIG BAMBU fits well in this event and has every right to atone off his latest.

Race 6

(3) CARTOON DADDY took them every step of the way, but was caught in deep stretch last out. Three-year-old colt appears to be better than the rest of these; the pick. (1) HOT RODDY was quite dull in his last two tries, so the rail slot might help his cause; maybe. (5) BEST DEAL YET N faced better last out and just missed the victory; post hurts but worth watching.

Race 7

(5) AMERITIME might have been used up in the early stages last time around; did show good pace two starts ago. With a favorable trip, she will boss these. (2) SHES A HOT MESS is a very consistent filly that could move forward based on her solid form. (7) VICTORIAS MUNKY put in a good late run to nail down the victory last out; beware again.

Race 8

(1) BITTERSWEET CHAMP had a mild rally for third money at Saratoga last time around; was late on the scene to grab the victory two starts back. He could take this despite the rise in class. (2) RANGERS SURESHOT has good speed and was in the money 12 of 19 trips this year; big threat. (4) WESTERN BAYAMA is knocking at the door based on her last two tries; must be considered.

Race 9

(6) R CAAN has put in three sharp performances in a row, and that's an indication he will move forward. He is primed to boss these at his best. (3) STOMPIN TOM CREEK closed late for the fourth spot from the 7-hole last out; now could make some serious noise from the three slot. (5) CHANTEPLEURE led every step of the way for all the glory recently; exotics factor.

Race 10

(2) MAH SISH N rallied strongly to just miss the victory by only 3/4's of a length. He makes his return to Yonkers and this looks like a perfect spot to get back into the winner's circle. (5) KINGS BARNS gets serious post relief in here; showed speed three starts ago and seems to be a major player in here. (1) OHOKA TEXAS N did not fire in his latest but should fare well from the fence; watch out.

Race 11

(2) SPORTSMUFFLER was used up early last time around, but this pacing filly is good enough to make some serious noise against this group. At her best, she can get the job done with a favorable trip. (5) ICAPELLA HANOVER was empty in her latest but was a fast closing second two starts ago; fits in here. (7) ART I SWEET has fine speed and most likely be on the engine; not out of this by far.

Race 12

Will take a shot with (7) GINGER TREE ALEXIS to put it all together after rallying for the show spot at Saratoga last time out. Can score with a fine-tmed drive from Bartlett. (2) MAYA SCAPE charged down the lane to miss the victory by only 1/2 of a length; big threat. (1) HEAVENLY BRIDE was sitting a three-hole trip to grab the score in her most recent outing; must be considered in all the exotics.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Fair Grounds (9th) Proust, 5-1
(10th) Tenstrikesinarow, 7-2

Finger Lakes (6th) Archer Hill, 4-1
(9th) Comity, 3-1


Mahoning Valley (1st) True Test, 3-1
(6th) Valorem, 8-1


Parx Racing (1st) Spirit of the Nite, 4-1
(2nd) Haunted Vision, 3-1


Turf Paradise (5th) Swiss Idol, 3-1
(7th) Borealis Breeze, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
six most popular picks in Week 12 season record: 35-35-2

6) Giants -3 (385)-- Washington won its last four home games- L.

5) Patriots -3 (407)-- Lot of opinions on this game, both ways.

4) Browns -2.5 (409)-- Not a lot of faith in Matt Schaub as Ravens' QB.

3) Broncos +3 (415)-- I'm guessing this game will get huge TV ratings.

2) Steelers +3.5 (531)-- Roethlisberger's first-ever game in Seattle- L.

1) Buccaneers +3.5 (567)-- Not lot of faith in 40-year Colt QB Hasselbeck- L.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Monday

OILERS at MAPLE LEAFS 7:35 PM

Take: MAPLE LEAFS

It’s debut time tonight in Toronto, as Garret Sparks will make his first NHL start in goal for the Maple Leafs as they host Edmonton.

Sparks has been sizzling on the farm in the AHL. With James Reimer injured and Jonathan Bernier struggling mightily, head coach Mike Babcock doesn’t have much choice but to start the kid. But I see this as blessing in disguise. Toronto had been playing its best hockey in ages till losing their last three, and with Reimer sidelined, they simply can’t afford to rely on the currently hapless Bernier. Better to call the hot minor leaguer up and give him his chance.

Edmonton arrives off a nice upset win at Pittsburgh on Saturday, and that was on the heels of a tough OT loss at Detroit where the Oilers had fought back impressively after falling behind. But this is still a team that’s somewhat shorthanded right now thanks to key injuries, and playing a third road game in four nights looks like a difficult task.

I have always liked the idea of rolling with first time starters. I do it on a regular basis in baseball, and the thought process is similar on the ice. Nerves can always be a concern, but at the same time I feel the pitcher has an advantage going against players who’ve never seem him and might not know how to attack whatever weaknesses exist. Same deal with goalies with the unfamiliarity on the opposition being an asset at the outset. It helps that in this case, I’m banking on a goalie who has been stopping almost everything fired his way wth the Marlies, and I like Sparks to be tough on the Oilers tonight.

The Edmonton goalie is unknown presently. My guess is Anders Nilsson, as he’s simply been more reliable than Cam Talbot. So I’m obviously hoping it’s Talbot. But either way, I want to cast my lot with the Leafs first-timer. Assuming I don’t get priced off the game, I’ll be on Toronto tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Monday, Nov 30, 2015 10:35 PM ET

(515) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS VS (516) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Take: (515) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, November 30, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled game between the Portland Trailblazers and LA Clippers. Both these clubs off to a somewhat slow start in a very competitive Western Conference. Portland is 7-10 S/U and 9-8 ATS, while the Clippers are 9-8 S/U and 6-11 ATS. Clippers are in a bit of a tough schedule spot, playing the second of a back to back situation and their third game in four nights. The Clippers beat Minnesota on Sunday, 107-99, but failed to cover the 10 point spread. The Clippers haven't covered two games in a row since they opened the season 2-0 ATS. LA has now covered just eight of their last 29 games at home and three of their last 12 overall. Portland has already beaten LA once this season and looks for two in a row tonight. The Blazers might not be winning a lot straight up, but they have been a decent cover club, especially against their Pacific division rivals where they are 11-5 their last 16. Portland has covered five of the last seven in this series and I look for them to cover again tonight as the Clippers should be pretty tired for this contest. Take the Blazers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

Spurs vs Bulls

8* NBA Free Pick San Antonio Spurs -3.5

The San Antonio Spurs are off five consecutive wins and have covered the spread in four of those games. They're 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. Eastern Conference and I like their chances of picking up a big win when visiting the Chicago Bulls Monday night. The Bulls are back home after a three-game road-trip which included stops at Golden State (L), Portland (W) and Indiana (L). They're 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games following a road trip of seven or more days and 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Spurs have allowed an average of just 83.4 points over their current winning streak and did not allow any Atlanta starter to score more than 10 points in Saturday’s 108-88 win as the Hawks were held to 6-of-26 shooting from 3-point range. I think they'll stay focused on defense tonight and then I don't see the Bulls match them right now.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Warriors vs Jazz

Bonus Play Golden State Warriors

I'm recommending a play on the Warriors on Monday night. 18-0 SU & 13-5 ATS and we see no reason to stay away tonight. Golden State continues to take it to teams, whether they're up big or small going into the later stages of games. This team is looking to make statements almost every night of the week. The Warriors suffered a little spread hiccup in mid-November, but they have since covered six straight games. Golden State's last five wins have come by margins of 12, 13, 34, 19, and 19 points. No Harrison Barnes for a while, he's out with an ankle injury, but Utah may not have second leading scorer Derrick Favors, who's also the team's second leading rebounder. Whether he plays or not, we simply expect GST to continue to attack throughout the course of the game. The Warriors have covered four of the last five meetings and we're recommending a play on Golden State on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.