Monday 11/28/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #5 - Post: 2:30pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#12 A ROSE FOR LIZZY (ML=4/1)
#2 PERFECT PARTY GIRL (ML=7/2)
#6 TRIBAL TRANSIT (ML=10/1)
#1 DISCREET DECEIT (ML=9/2)


A ROSE FOR LIZZY - Utilizing this jock/conditioner combination is a good move. The recent bullet 49.4 work should put this filly on track for today's effort. First time starter here. An overlooked stat is the breeding, especially the dam. Dam's foals have won 50 percent of the time as first timers. PERFECT PARTY GIRL - I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. Don't often see a beneficial ROI like +34. This jockey/conditioner duo has done well together over the last 12 months. The 80 last race speed rating looks mighty good on paper. Look at this pattern of improvement. 69/76/80 are the last 3 Equibase speed figures. Have to watch for this animal on the turf. Last race at Laurel, scored a big turf figure. Have to think she can do it again in today's race. TRIBAL TRANSIT - This mount should be motoring in the lane. DISCREET DECEIT - You always have to be on the lookout for revenue generating jock/conditioner teams; we have an instance right here. A campaigner coming back this rapidly after a sharp race is a good omen. This horse is in the top spot in earnings per start. She looks solid in today's affair. Adding blinkers often leads to an improved performance on the racetrack.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 STORMIN BABE (ML=5/2), #11 ROCKIN (ML=5/1), #4 CAIRENN (ML=6/1),

STORMIN BABE - Trying to beat this thoroughbred this time around at the reward of 5/2. ROCKIN - Run-of-the-mill speed fig last out at Delaware Park at 6 furlongs. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's event. CAIRENN - Disappointing speed rating last time around the track at Parx Racing at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #12 A ROSE FOR LIZZY on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [6,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

[2,12] with [1,2,6,12] with [1,2,6,12] with [1,2,4,6,9,12] with [1,2,4,6,9,12] Total Cost: $72
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Zia Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:10pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#4 OLD FASHIONED GAL (ML=3/1)
#5 STAR OF THE DAY (ML=2/1)


OLD FASHIONED GAL - Rode this horse on Nov 8th and Tohill is right back in the irons this time around. When this jock and trainer partner up you have to take a look. Tohill and Chavez have been terrific together. I really like that most recent outing on Nov 8th at Zia Park where she finished first. My associates and I have made cash playing horses with this type of pace. Follow my advice and do the same. A repeat of that last race on November 8th where she recorded a speed fig of 73 looks lofty enough to score in this race. (EPS) earnings per start is something that I feel can be a key selection factor. This thoroughbred is ranked number 1 in this field. STAR OF THE DAY - Shipped in on Oct 18th to finish first here. Take right back again.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 HANSENCAT (ML=5/2), #1 PROUD CECILIA (ML=7/2), #3 RITZY WAON (ML=5/1),

HANSENCAT - Don't think that this filly has value at 5/2 in today's event. PROUD CECILIA - Doubtful that the speed figure she earned on November 15th will be enough in this race. RITZY WAON - This pony didn't go to the lead and didn't make up any ground down the lane last time she ran. This mount ran a mediocre speed rating last race out. She shouldn't run better and will likely get beat today running that fig.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - OLD FASHIONED GAL - Trainer puts this filly on Lasix for the second time in succession. A pretty good sign Chavez is putting her in to win in this race.*
*


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #4 OLD FASHIONED GAL on top if we're getting at least 6/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip
 
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Woodbine Harness: Monday 11/28 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

.20 PICK 5: 1,8,9,10 / 2,3 / 1,7,9,10 / 6 / 3,4,6,8 = $25.60

$1 EARLY PICK 4: 6 / 3,4,6,8 / 1,5,7 / 2,4,5 = $36

$1 LATE PICK 4: 2,4,5 / 3,5,9 / 3,7 / 2 = $18

MEET STATS: 19 - 85 / $120.00 BEST BETS: 4 - 8 / $11.90

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 8 / $0.00

Best Bet: AWESOMENESS (10th)

Spot Play: ABSOLUT SEELSTER (8th)


Race 1

(10) TWIN B INSPIRING drops into a claimer again coming off a vet scratch. She will likely get rolled for as far as she goes and she could bottom out this field. (8) LADY JEN couldn’t catch the choice’s stablemate last time, who went on a wild speed mission and lasted. She figures here, but could be involved in a similar pace scenario. (1) SHES A MANIAC should get a decent trip near the front here and isn’t without a shot. (9) MOREMUNKYBUSINESS is worth a look dropping into a claimer.

Race 2

(2) LISVINNE looked sharp in victory last week and he can double up here. The short field helps him. (3) NEVER BEEN TOLD has been on fire since arriving at Woodbine and he is the one to catch here. (7) NEW YORK NOGHTMARE will likely be camped at the back early and close for another slice here. (6) CHOSEN HOMBRE showed last week that he fits better in this class and he can close for another minor share.

Race 3

(9) DEMAND AN ANSWER woke up last time with McNair in the bike and perhaps can keep it going for MacDonald. (1) WARAWEE PROTON goes from the top trainer to one that has one win in the past three years. I will play to beat him off that angle. (10) ALACRITY woke up when dropped into a claimer last week and he looked good doing it; using. (7) CRACKER ZACK can be a pace threat here if he stays flat.

Race 4

(6) PRINCE CLYDE takes the plunge to the lowest condition level and he should get an aggressive steer vs. much easier. (1) CS EYE raced Thursday night and he got stuck behind a stopping leader. He has a shot here at a price if he goes. (8) EVERY DAY wasn’t disgraced in a quick mile last time and he shows a nice final 1/4. He could sneak onto the ticket here. (5) NEEDLECREST is another that can pass horses late and make the ticket at a price.

Race 5

(8) CASH FOR GOLD got mired on cover that was too slow to develop last time and the winner got away from him in the stretch. There is so much early speed in here that this race could fall into his lap in deep stretch. (3) MYSTERY BET showed a new dimension last time when using a take-no-prisoners approach. He is sharp and will likely revert to a preferred closing style in this field. (4) OLYMPIC SON is on a roll and he is another that will be passing horses in the back 1/2. (6) WILD AND CRAZY GUY takes a substantial class drop and he is worth including on that factor alone.

Race 6

(7) PAR INTENDED continues to stay sharp and race well every week. The outer post should allow him to grab some cover here, which could be the deciding factor. (1) YORK SEELSTER should benefit from the post position change and get involved in the race earlier. (5) PANEDICTINE was the beneficiary of a slowing late pace last week. He isn’t out of this, but he is more likely to take a smaller share this time. (6) LONEWOLF CURRIER can be a bad actor and he must be seen on the track before being played. If he is acting up before the race, he is probably a solid bet against at any price.

Race 7

(5) RAGING FINGERS was raced aggressively in this class two back and was only beaten by the pocket-sitter. Toss the Flamboro race from the 8-hole and he looks solid here. (4) LIGHT FOOT RD should improve by default getting away from the 9-hole to start the race; using. (2) INTENDED STYLE is another that almost surely will improve from a better post. Toss him on Pick 4 tickets. (7) STIMULUS SPENDING will be passing horses late, most likely for a smaller share.

Race 8

(5) ABSOLUT SEELSTER was a strong winner from the 10-hole last time and she is a good bet to repeat here leaving from a better post. (9) PREMIER GLITTER was flying late last time in a much-improved performance. She is worth inclusion here. (3) GREGO could threaten if he can get away better from this improved post. (8) PAMPERED IN PINK should be a speed threat if she stays flat this time, but that’s hard to predict.

Race 9

(3) WINDSUN REVENGE couldn’t survive the big first 1/2 that he laid down last week. If he gets a breather here, he should be tough to beat. (7) IL SOGNO DREAM powered up impressively last week despite having missed more than three weeks of action. He is the obvious danger. (2) FEARLESS MAN could be closer early this time, which would make him a threat. (5) ABC MUSCLES BOY is an interesting shipper that should have a say in the outcome here.

Race 10

(2) AWESOMENESS was sold on November 17th and he gets a positive driver change here. Expect him to be rolled early and sent on a speed mission here. (4) DEADLY ACTION is worth a look coming off the shelf here with a nice qualifier in tow. (8) SENIOR K should be on or near the lead early, but may find the choice too tough. (9) ROCKIN RONNIE is in great form and he can share here despite facing tougher. (1) SHOOTER INTHECREEK goes for Moreau off a sharp mile vs. claimers at Hoosier. He could better this placing, but a win is unlikely here.
 
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Yonkers: Monday 11/28 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF

MEET STATS: 289 - 1210 / $1,854.80

BEST BETS: 32 - 113 / $151.10

Best Bet: IDEAL JIMMY (10th)

Spot Play: BLAISE MM HANOVER (8th)


Race 1

(2) PHYLLIS JEAN comes by way of Indiana and does have 4 wins to her credit; can top these at her best. (6) SOUTHWIND ION put in a good qualifier at Pocono last out. (4) LEGIO EQUESTRIS could make some noise with a better trip; maybe.

Race 2

(4) ROCKIN INDY has scored in his last three starts and has every right to keep on his winning ways. (5) FAST N VICTORIOUS is knocking at the door based on his last two tries; threat. (2) BUGGER JERRY gets post relief and that should help his cause.

Race 3

(3) PREJUDICE has good early speed and could take these all the way to glory. (4) NOX VEGAS BLUECHIP should fare better from the 4-hole. (2) AZUL POOL fits well in here and clearly is not out of this.

Race 4

(5) ALLIES CRUISER is 0 for 22 this year, but this looks to be a better spot for this gelding to greet the cameraman for pictures. (8) CONCUR was sent down the road, but was nailed for win honors last out; dangerous. (2) SHIFT RIGHT could have a say in the outcome.

Race 5

(4) IDEAL PRINCESS has been very sharp since the move to Yonkers and should boss these at her best. (2) SHORTSTORY HANOVER can be right in the mix with a favorable trip. (6) THAT GIRL OF MINE got the job done via the pocket route at Freehold last time around.

Race 6

(5) RACE WITH GRACE came late on the scene to grab the score in her most recent outing and two straight is not out of the question. (6) NORTHERN SOIREE has two sharp seconds at Pocono and should be right there against these. (2) POKERFACE was very sharp last out and will most likely be on the engine; watch out.

Race 7

(5) PHOOS GIRL moves up the ladder off her third straight score. Filly is fit and ready for the four-peat. (3) FRANNEY LOVE DAT was very game in the pocket but could not get to the winner last out; big threat. (6) AMERICAN IVY could land a share of the purse.

Race 8

(1) BLAISE MM HANOVER is clearly knocking at the door and now she moves to the fence; ready for action. (2) FINE DIAMOND was sent down the road in her last try for all the glory; player again. (7) BIG TOP HANOVER moves down the ladder but will have to get the job done from door number seven; possible.

Race 9

(1) WINNA WINNA moves to the rail for team Brennan/Burke; all systems go. (3) BRUNELLO N leaves the 8-hole for a cozy slot; main danger. (8) HUSTLING CHARLEY is an Ohio invader that should fit well in here; he must be considered.

Race 10

(1) IDEAL JIMMY moves to the fence and that could get this pacing gelding back to the winner's circle. (2) HEAVEN ROCKS was second best in his last trip to the post; contender. (5) ANGS DELIGHT could have a say with a perfect trip.

Race 11

(6) THATLL BE THE REI was very sharp for win honors last out at Pocono and this 7-year-old is very capable of getting the job done once again. (8) SONOFA SIZZLE was on the engine most of the way but did not have enough gas in the tank; exotics factor. (1) STEVENSVILLE moves to the rail and fits with these; watch out.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Monday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Finger Lakes (1st) Saint Joseph, 7-2
(5th) Don's Legend, 4-1


Laurel Park (3rd) Vizi Girl, 7-2
(6th) Soup d'Coupe, 5-1


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Alone Again, 10-1
(8th) Forester's Diva, 3-1


Parx Racing (4th) White Bluff, 9-2
(7th) Modern Harmony, 7-2


Turf Paradise (3rd) Mak'n a Kowboy, 7-2
(6th) Whoa Boy, 3-1
 
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Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 12 of the Westgate Super Contest

— Tennessee Titans, -4.5 (514)- W

— Atlanta Falcons, -4 (480)- W

— Washington Redskins +7 (405)- W

— Baltimore Ravens -4 (387)- W

— Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (380)- W

— Oakland Raiders -3 (379)- W

Season record: 28-43-2
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Monday

The Bonus Play on Valparaiso looked to be in good shape with about one minute to play as the Crusaders had passed the number and they’re a good team at the foul line. But Ball State got hot from long distance in those final sixty seconds and ended up getting inside the spread in the process. Here’s Monday’s comp.

529 TULSA at 530 ORAL ROBERTS 8:00 PM

Take: TULSA -1

Pride on the line tonight as neighboring schools Tulsa and Oral Roberts have their annual showdown. It’s a game that has seemingly meant a bit more to the Golden Eagles, and they’ve won three straight in the series. I’m thinking this one might go in favor the Golden Hurricane.

First off, while a good number of the current Tulsa players weren’t around for last year’s 70-68 ORU win, I imagine they all know how it ended. The Eagles got a corner three from Albert Owens that was probably the biggest basket of the game. That’s remarkably notable, because Owens only attempted seven treys over the course of the entire season. He made just one of those seven, and this happened to be that one. Oral Roberts then won the game at the horn and to say they celebrated would be a bit of an understatement.

The revenge motive should be big for Tulsa here, but it’s not like Oral Roberts is going to just surrender as they always want this game. But some personnel issues are factored into my opinion on this game.

Tulsa has improved since junior college transfer Jaleel Wheeler swung into action after missing the team’s first two games. Wheeler has been a definite plus factor and was the best player on the floor in Tulsa’s win over Oregon State.

On the flip side, it appears as though swingman Aaron Anderson might be out for Oral Roberts again. He’s missed the last two games, and while I don’t see Anderson as a vital component, his absence would certainly impact the rotation for the Eagles. Anderson is not listed in the Tulsa World projected starting lineups for this game, so that could indicate he’s out again.

Tulsa is on the uptick following two rough games to start the season. Oral Roberts is struggling, losing all four games to D-1 opposition and getting blown out in three of those outings. I make Tulsa the better team at this point and I have to think they really want to end the streak of futility against the Eagles. I’ll side with Tulsa to win this one.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Monday, November 28, 2016 8:05 PM ET

NBA (509) UTAH JAZZ VS (510) MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Take: UNDER

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Monday, Nov 28, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Utah Jazz and the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Minnesota T'Wolves are looking to improve defensively on their 103.5 ppg averaged allowed points (15th). Maybe the Wolves will learn something tonight from the league's best defensive team in Utah. Utah is holding opponents to a league-low 42.3% shooting and 92.8 ppg. Last game, the Jazz held Atlanta to just 31.3% shooting, blocked nine shots and forced 14 turnovers. This game won't have many highlight reel moments, but it will be a low scoring, defensive battle. Play UNDER.
 

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