Monday 11/21/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Northwestern Wildcats (2-1) at Texas Longhorns (3-0)

Date: November 21, 2016 9:30 PM EDT

It will be a classic confrontation between No. 23 Texas' youthful balance and Northwestern's experience when the two teams square off Monday in the semifinals of the 10th annual Legends Classic at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

The contest follows the first semifinal game between Notre Dame and Colorado. The losers of Monday's games square off at 2:30 p.m. CST Tuesday while the winners meet at 5 p.m.

The Longhorns are off to a 3-0 start, most recently defeating Eastern Washington 89-52 on Thursday. Sophomore swingman Tevin Mack paced five Texas players in double figures with 19 points off the bench.

No Texas player saw more than 28 minutes of action during the contest (28 by freshman center Jarrett Allen and senior guard Kendal Yancy). Eight UT players saw at least 19 minutes of action.

"At this point last season we had played better competition than we've played this year so everything's relative," Texas coach Shaka Smart said after Thursday's win. "Now the question is: Can we go on the road? The competition level will go up in New York. We will see better athletes. We will see more size. We will see better teams. How do we respond to that?"

In his two games, Mack paces Texas with an average of 16.5 points per contest. He leads six different Texas players who are averaging double figures in scoring through their first three games. Five Longhorns are averaging at least 5.0 rebounds per game.

Texas has excellent on the defensive end as well, especially at running shooters off the 3-point line. Opponents are shooting just 33.5 percent from the field against the Longhorns. Texas has limited its first three opponents to 21.8 percent (17-of- 78) shooting from 3-point range and held Eastern Washington to 14.3 percent (3-21) from beyond the arc in Thursday's victory.

Through the Longhorns' first three contests, Yancy ranks second on the squad in scoring (13.7 ppg), leads the team in steals (5) and is tied for the team lead in minutes (29.3 mpg). He has converted 54.2 percent (13-24) from the floor and 84.6 percent (11-13) free throws this season.

"We're pretty confident right now and we are in a good place," Yancy said. "We just have to keep improving. We have a lot of young guys who are willing to give it their all, willing to improve and grow every day. Just the energy they bring is good for the team in general."

Northwestern (2-1) heads to the Big Apple off a buzzer-beating 70-68 loss at Butler on Wednesday.

"We went into that game expecting to win, so it hurt," Northwestern coach Chris Collins said. "In the past, maybe it was okay to go to Butler and play them to the last shot of the game. To us, that's not what we were looking for. I sensed an anger in the team last night, which I liked. They know it was a game we very well could have got. We just didn't close the deal."

Sophomore forward Vic Law led four Wildcats in double figures with 17 points, including hitting 5 of 6 3-point attempts. The contest featured 17 ties and 16 lead changes.

"I'm confident in how our team's going to be," Law said. "But I'm angry that we let it slip away. We have to win games like (the loss to Butler). It's as simple as that."

Law has enjoyed a solid return to the Northwestern attack after missing all of the 2015-16 campaign due to shoulder injury. He's the team's leading scorer at 20.3 points per game, has paced the Wildcats in scoring in all three games and tallied at least 17 points in each contest, including a career-high 26 vs. Eastern Washington on Nov. 14. Through three games he is shooting 64.5 percent from the field (20-of-31).

Northwestern returns 61.4 percent of its scoring and 71.4 percent of its rebounding from a year ago. The Wildcats welcome back three starters and 10 letter winners overall from a team that won 20 regular-season games for the first time in school history.

It's been 42 years since Texas and Northwestern have played on the basketball court, and the teams have split two previous meetings. The Wildcats won 73-71 on Dec. 21, 1965 in Memphis, Tenn., while the Longhorns won 63-59 on Dec. 23, 1974 in Austin.

The Wildcats and Longhorns already have one common opponent this season: Eastern Washington. Northwestern beat the Eagles 86-72 on Nov. 14 in Evanston while Texas rumbled past EWU 85-52 three nights later in Austin.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: UAB Blazers (2-1) at Kansas Jayhawks (2-1)

Date: November 21, 2016 9:30 PM EDT

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Kansas is capable of draining long-range shots.

This much, Bill Self sees every day in practice. Actually, as far back as when the Kansas coach recruited players for a team ranked No. 7.

Through a 2-1 start, however, the Jayhawks are shooting only 23.1 percent from 3-point range and have been outscored from behind the arc, 93-36.

Their top backcourt bombers -- senior Frank Mason and juniors Devonte' Graham and Svi Mykhailiuk -- have combined to go 9 of 37 entering a game Monday against Alabama Birmingham (2-1) as part of the CBE Hall of Fame Classic at Sprint Center.

"I know we're better shooters than what we've shot," Self said. "Devonte', Frank and Svi, none of them have gotten on a roll yet. I know we can become a pretty good shooting team."

Against Siena on Nov. 18, an 86-65 win that counted as the Jayhawks' host game in the CBE tournament, Kansas was outscored 24-3 at one point from 3-point range as the Saints trimmed a second-half deficit to five.

"We've been shooting the ball well in practice, it just hasn't translated into games," said Mason, who led Kansas in scoring in each of its three games and averages 23 points despite making only two 3-pointers this season.

Fatigue remains a factor the Jayhawks must confront.

Another semifinal between Georgia (2-1) and George Washington (3-0) is scheduled Monday before the CBE championship round is played Tuesday.

The Jayhawks opened the season traveling to Honolulu and New York for a split with Indiana and Duke and now face three games in five days.

Throughout the opening stretch, and throughout the season actually, attention will be focused on Josh Jackson, a 6-foot-8 freshman guard who came to Kansas ranked as the nation's top recruit by some services.

Jackson has shown flashes, but also encountered foul problems in each game, averaging only 22 minutes while scoring at an 11.7-point clip.

On occasion, Jackson has been clearly agitated by some calls, drawing a technical foul in the win over Duke.

"He's an emotional youngster, but that's something he's got to do a better job with," Self said. "I do think that he's got to control his emotions a little bit.

"Getting frustrated like that, sometimes it's OK but it's not thinking next play. You've got to put that behind you. He'll get better at that."

UAB is coping with the loss of Nick Norton, a starting junior point guard, who was lost for the season after tearing the ACL in his right knee in the season opener.

In their first game without Norton, the Blazers had a 26-game homecourt winning streak snapped by Furman before rebounding to defeat Troy 74-51 on Nov. 17.

UAB was picked as the consensus favorite in Conference USA after claiming the title last season and moving on to the NCAA Tournament before settling for a school-record 26 wins.

William Lee, a 6-9 junior forward who is the reigning C-USA defensive player of the year, had seven rebounds and seven blocked shots in the win over Troy.

Junior forward Chris Cokley paces the Blazers, averaging a team-high 14.3 points and 6.0 rebounds.

Sophomore guard Deion Lavender flirted with a triple-double against Troy, posting nine points, nine rebounds and seven assists. With Norton out, Lavender shared duties at the point with senior Denzell Watts.

"We did a better job of balancing the minutes and not relying strictly on Deion," said Robert Ehsan, who was promoted to head coach at UAB this season after Jerod Haase left for Stanford.

"Denzell was fantastic. Deion played off the ball as well, which he is an asset at. This is the kind of expectation that the coaches have for Deion, to be this productive. He had a great game."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: San Diego State Aztecs (2-1) at California Golden Bears (2-0)

Date: November 21, 2016 11:00 PM EDT

The lineups that 25th-ranked California and San Diego State will field when they meet at Sacramento's new Golden 1 Center on Monday (11 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Networks) might bear little resemblance to the players they put on the floor in their last games on Wednesday.

The Bears (2-0) were missing three starters -- preseason All-American forward Ivan Rabb (toe) guards Jabari Bird (back) and Grant Mullins (neck) -- in their 75-65 overtime victory against UC Irvine.

The Aztecs (2-1) faced a worse situation. They started Wednesday's home game against San Diego Christian with only eight players and at one point were down to six, including one walk-on, by the time they finished off an 81-58 victory.

"They are probably looking for the same thing we are -- to get healthy," Cal coach Cuanzo Martin said, "But that's a great program."

There is a pretty good chance that many of the injured players will be available on Monday.

All three injured Cal players may be ready to return Monday, and if Rabb plays, it would represent his season debut after he sustained a sprained toe in a scrimmage against St. Mary's three weeks ago.

For San Diego State, Valentine Izundu (ankle) and Matt Shrigley (ankle) could have played Wednesday if the opponent had not been an overmatched NAIA school.

Montaque Gill-Caesar (nose) and Dakarai Allen (ankle) were injured during Wednesday's game, but might return for Monday's game, too.

The outlook for Malik Pope (knee), Max Hoetzel (knee) and Ben Perez (back) is less certain. All three missed the first three games of the season and remain questionable for the game against Cal.

The 6-foot-10 Pope is the key member of that group after starting 16 games last season.

"Malik's making progress," Aztecs coach Steve Fisher said after Wednesday's game, "but I would term myself 'cautiously optimistic' today that he would have a chance (to play Monday)."

It would have been nice to have those injured players last Monday at Gonzaga, which clobbered San Diego State 69-48 when the Aztecs shot only 28.6 percent from the field.

They were not needed against San Diego Christian, although Fisher nearly ran out of players.

"We had two 13-year-olds as honorary coaches today," Fisher said after the game, "and at halftime I said, 'John, Jake, do you have tennis shoes?' They looked at me. I said, 'Where do you go to school?' La Jolla Country Day. 'What grade are you in?' Seventh grade. I said: 'I'm putting one of you in. I mean that, I'm putting one of you in.'"

After consulting a rule book, Fisher did not put them in. Jeremy Hemsley had a game-high 23 points for the Aztecs in that game and preseason all-conference selection Trey Kell added 19.

The Bears had a much bigger challenge against UC Irvine, which held a 13-point lead early in the second half.

Cal rallied behind freshman Charlie Moore, a 5-foot-11 point guard from Chicago who scored 38 points, a Cal freshman record and the most points by a Bears player since Jerome Randle, another undersized point guard from Chicago, scored 39 in 2010.

"We didn't want to have any excuses after the game," Martin said. "You had key guys out, and this is part of the game. You have 13 scholarship guys. You have to make it work with the guys who've been in practice. Probably one of the better wins in my coaching career, just to see guys compete and battle and not make excuses."

San Diego State, the preseason pick to win the Mountain West Conference title again, won the conference regular-season title by three games last season, but failed to get into the NCAA tournament. A neutral-court win over Cal might help the Aztecs make the Big Dance this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels (4-0) at (2-0) Chaminade Silverswords

Date: November 21, 2016 11:30 PM EDT

After mostly cruising through four games, fifth-ranked North Carolina takes a different kind of challenge this week.

The Maui Invitational should test the Tar Heels' endurance.

North Carolina has won each game by double-digit margins, so the likelihood for heightened competition is appealing at this stage of the season.

"I think that is what the whole team wants," Tar Heels guard Joel Berry said. "We want a good challenge. We still have to go out there and play our hardest, so we can try and get better. I think going out to Maui and playing against some better competition will help us."

The tournament schedule calls for three games in three days at Lahaina Civic Center, with the Tar Heels beginning Monday night against tournament host Chaminade (2-0), a Division II program.

This is North Carolina's seventh appearance in the Maui Invitational, with the Tar Heels reaching the finals five times and winning the 1999, 2004 and 2008 events. The Tar Heels have a 15-3 record in the tournament.

Coach Roy Williams said the competition is important. He's also prone to point out the fringe benefits of the trip because he enjoys tropical weather.

"We go to Maui every four years for a reason -- the head coach likes it," Williams said.

Yet the Tar Heels are aware that the basketball value is of utmost importance.

"We have to go with the right mindset," senior forward Kennedy Meeks said. "I know it's a nice place to go."

North Carolina holds a 4-0 record for the first time since November 2012.

Freshman post player Tony Bradley has scored in double figures in all four North Carolina games. That's the most consecutive games in double figures at the beginning of a college career for a Tar Heel since Brandan Wright's 18-game stretch in 2006-07.

Williams, with a 787-209 coaching record, moved into ninth place in Division I men's coaching victories with Friday night's 83-68 win at Hawaii. He passed Lefty Driesell.

That game also resulted in the lowest point total of the season for the Tar Heels, who rang up more than 90 points in the first three games of the season -- something they hadn't done in 22 years.

This marks the third Maui Invitational appearance in a row in which the Tar Heels will match up with Chaminade, though the last time it came in a consolation round.

Chaminade, which was coming off a 12-15 record in 2015-16, hasn't played since winning Nov. 11 and 12 against Alaska Anchorage and Alaska, respectively, to open the new season.

"Our defense has been really, really good," sixth-year coach Eric Bovaird said on the school's web site. "It's something we've focused on. We're getting better. It's something we're going to focus on."

Guards Rohndell Goodwin and Kiran Shastri averaged 24 and 20.5 points in the opening two games for Chaminade. Sam Daly, who was among the best in the Pacific West Conference last season in assists and steals, is a senior guard in his second year with the Silverswords after transferring from Grand Canyon.

"Starting out 2-0 going into Maui feels really good," Bovaird said.

The North Carolina-Chaminade winner takes on the Connecticut-Oklahoma State winner in Tuesday night's semifinals, while the losers meet in the consolation bracket.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Monday’s games

TCU shot 58% inside arc, beat Illinois State 71-60 on neutral floor LY; they’re 3-0 in Dixon’s first year, but best team they’ve played is #284 Jacksonville State; Horned Frogs scored 88.5 pts/game in their two D-I games- they’ve made 48.8% on arc, forced TO’s on 26.8% of possessions. Illinois State lost by 3 at Murray State, beat Ft Wayne by 18 at home; they’ve turned ball over 22.6% of time- they start 2 juniors, 2 seniors. TCU starts 2 freshmen, 2 juniors.

Houston has experienced team with high expectations, but hard to tell much about them this year- they’ve hammered two stiffs. Cougars went 22-10 LY; they start 2 juniors, 2 seniors. George Mason is 0-2 vs D-I teams, losing two games by total of 8 points, with losses to Mt St Mary’s/Towson; Patriots are shooting 19.4% on arc thru three games. AAC favorites are 6-4 vs spread this season. CAA teams are 12-12 vs spread, 7-4 as an underdog.


Paradise Jam, Virgin Islands

Montana allowed 80 pts/game in its 0-4 start, losing first two games here by 13-24 points; teams are shooting 60% inside arc against the Griz, who start two freshmen and a sophomore. Oral Roberts is 0-3 vs D-I teams, allowing 83 pts/game, losing by 15-7-25 points; they’re turning ball over 22.2% of time. Big Sky teams are 10-14 vs spread this month; Summit teams are 10-11.

Washington State is 2-1 vs D-I teams with both wins vs Big Sky teams; Coogs are shooting 38.6% on arc, but turned ball over 20.8% of time. WSU is starting three seniors and a junior. Loyola is 2-1 vs D-I teams, forcing turnovers on 25.9% of possessions; they lost to St Joe’s by 14, in their only game against a top 200 team. Ramblers are shooting just 54.8% on foul line. Pac-12 teams are 16-12 vs spread. MVC teams are 9-9.

NC State lost 112-94 to Creighton Sunday in 80-possession track meet; Wolfpack played only 8 guys, four of them 30+ minutes. State lost by 16 despite making 14-28 on arc. Best team they beat so far is #144 Ga Southern, 81-79. St Joe’s lost 81-68 to Ole Miss yesterday, playing three guys 33+ minutes. Rebels made 12-28 on arc against them- that was Hawks’ first game against a top 100 team. SEC teams are 15-18 vs spread this month. ACC teams are 20-14.

Creighton is loaded at guard; they scored 103-112 points in first two games of this tourney, also beat Wisconsin by 12 before going here. Bluejays are shooting 48.4% from arc this month; playing tempo #24- they played nine guys 12:00+ last nite, none more than 29. Ole Miss is off to a 4-0 start despite allowing 81.8 pts/game. Rebels beat St Joe’s by 13, their only game against a top 100 team. Big East teams are 15-9 vs spread this month. SEC teams are 15-18.

Tennessee is in bottom 15 in country in experience; they split first two games, losing at home to Chattanooga by 13, beating Appalachian State by 9- this is major step up in competition for them. Wisconsin beat to stiffs, lost by 12 at Creighton; Badgers are starting four seniors- they’re playing 3rd-slowest tempo in country, turning ball over 20.9% of time. Tennessee is playing #29 pace. SEC teams are 15-18 vs spread this month, 1-3 as underdogs. Big 14 favorites are 8-12.

Georgetown lost by point at home to Maryland, then lost at home to Arkansas State, which damn near lost to Army. Hoyas are starting only one senior, had much longer trip west than Oregon did. Ducks have been without best player Brooks; they beat Valpo by 17, lost badly at Baylor last week. Oregon shot just 28.4% on arc in its first three games. Big East underdogs are 5-0 vs spread this month. Pac-12 favorites are 14-9 against the spread.

UConn is struggling at 1-2, losing home games to Wagner/Northeastern, winning by 3 at LMU. Huskies are playing #320 pace; they’re #333 in bench minutes, #259 in experience- they shot 27% on arc in first three games. Oklahoma State scored 107 pts/game in hammering three stiffs to start the season. Cowboys are playing #26 pace, are #5 in bench minutes, are forcing TO’s 24% of time. AAC teams are 13-11 vs spread. Big X teams are 9-5 against the spread.

Colorado is #63 in experience, #34 in bench minutes; Buffs are 3-0, whacking three stiffs by 37-12-19 points- they’re shooting 38.3% on arc. Notre Dame is also 3-0 vs stiffs, with 25 points closest of the three wins; Irish are turning ball over only 9.8% of time (#1 in country), holding foes to 35.4% inside arc. They’re #123 in experience, #59 in bench minutes. Pac-12 teams are 16-12 against spread. ACC teams are 20-14.

Texas is 3-0, winning by 5-21-33 points, but none of those teams are ranked above #225; Longhorns are #336 in experience- they’re holding teams to 37.8% eFG%, #9 in country. Northwestern lost tough game by hoop at Butler last week; they scored 90 pts/game in two wins over stiffs. Wildcats made 42.4% on arc in first three games- they start two sophs, two juniors. Big 14 teams are 14-15 against the spread. Big X teams are 9-5 against the spread.

Belmont lost by 14 at Vanderbilt, going 9-41 on arc, then beat Western Kentucky by 21 at home, going 16-34; teams that shoot 3’s have wild variances in results. Bruins start two juniors, two seniors, are experienced mid-major. Florida is 3-0 with two top 100 wins, beating Fla Gulf Coast by 21, St Bonaventure by 7. Gators are forcing turnovers on 25.7% of possessions. SEC teams are 15-18 vs spread. OVC teams are 18-15 against the spread.

Rice appears to be much-improved, scoring 97 pts/game in wins at JMU/Omaha; they also lost at home to #203 Texas Southern. Owls are playing #72 pace, but are still inexperienced/thin. Montana State lost by 4 at Washington State, won its other two D-I games by 1-7 points; Bobcats have fouled a lot in their first four games- they’re playing #98 pace. Big Sky underdogs are 9-12 vs spread. Conference USA teams are 17-11 against the spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MNF heads to Mexico

NFL Week 11 Monday Night Football Betting Preview

Houston (6-3 SU; 5-3-1 ATS) vs. Oakland (7-2 SU; 6-3 ATS)

Odds: Oakland (-6); Total set at 46.5

Mexico City takes center stage on MNF as the Texans and Raiders do battle south of the border in a game that could have huge playoff implications in the AFC down the road. Houston and Oakland are currently atop their respective divisions, and should then end up slipping from that perch by season's end, this head-to-head result could determine who's in the playoffs and who's out.

Another important factor to consider about this game is the fact that this stadium in Mexico City is at a stadium that's about 2000 feet higher in altitude than Denver's home stadium and we all know how the thin air in Denver affects strategy in terms of attempting longer field goals and endurance levels of lineman. The fact that this stadium is even further up in the thin air adds another interesting dynamic to a game that means quite a bit for both sides.

Oakland is coming off their bye week after the beat up on the Broncos on SNF and that performance under the national spotlight definitely got the attention of many casual bettors. This line opened up at -5.5 for Oakland and has already been bet up to -6, despite Houston getting their first road win of the season a week ago and looking much better defensively then they have for most of the year.

The fact that the general consensus here is that Oakland is the much better squad and is going to have to win by a touchdown sucks most of the value out of considering laying the points with the Raiders. Playing in Mexico is uncharted territory for both sides so home field advantage is out the window and I wouldn't consider laying the points with an Oakland team that arguably had much of their positive vibes neutralized by taking a week off.

Yet, I'm not ready to take the points with Houston either as QB Brock Osweiler is still atrocious away from home. Houston won in Jacksonville last week in spite of Osweiler throwing for just 99 yards, as they got 181 rushing yards from their backs and a pick-6 from their defense.

Running the ball will be a critical part of the success for whichever team comes out on top in this game – not only to move the ball but wear down the opposing defense in the altitude – but Oakland has been much better against the run lately and has likely gameplanned in a way to force Osweiler to throw the ball to beat them. That's not the script for success from Houston's perspective and even getting six points on the spread doesn't seem all that attractive.

Instead, I'm looking at the total and believe it's a few points too high here. Houston's only had one total higher than 46.5 in any of their games this season and it did go over thanks to their tremendous 4th quarter comeback and win in OT at home vs the Colts a few weeks back. Only one other Texans game finished with 47 or more points and it landed on 47. That was another home contest against a different division rival in Tennessee. Every non-division game that's had a total higher than 40 for Houston this year has stayed 'under' the number and I believe this one does as well.

Now, obviously with the high altitude, more kicking points could be scored here, but that may be the main method of scoring as both defenses have been solid against the pass in recent weeks. Houston ranks 3rd in the NFL with 196.8 passing yards against/game, and while Oakland's overall rating is much lower (31st), going up against Brock Osweiler doesn't exactly hurt them in this spot. The Raiders have also had two weeks to prepare how to stop this Texans defense and that's always a plus when taking 'unders.' In fact, Oakland is on a 4-10 O/U run when coming off a bye and that trend should add another notch to the strong side this week.

Best Bet: Under 46.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MNF - Texans vs. Raiders
By Kevin Rogers

The Week 11 card wraps up south of the border as the NFL heads to Mexico City, Mexico for a key AFC matchup between the Raiders and Texans. Oakland is listed as the home team in this contest although Houston is closer to Mexico City. The Raiders are fresh off the bye week sitting atop the AFC West, while the Texans are leading the AFC South in spite of inconsistent play at the quarterback position.

LAST WEEK

The Texans (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) finally won their first road game following an 0-3 start away from NRG Stadium. Houston held off Jacksonville, 24-21 to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs, even though quarterback Brock Osweiler threw for only 99 yards. Osweiler did connect on a pair of touchdown passes with fringe tight ends Ryan Griffin and Stephen Anderson, while Kareem Jackson returned an interception 47 yards for the opening score of the game. The Texans improved to 3-0 inside the AFC South, while scoring more points at Jacksonville (24) than they did in their previous three road losses combined (22).

Oakland (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) had the week off in Week 10, but the Raiders dominated the Broncos, 30-20 two weeks ago at home. The Raiders picked up their third consecutive victory as running back Latavius Murray scored three touchdowns and racked up 114 yards. Quarterback Derek Carr threw for a career-high 513 yards the game prior in an overtime triumph at Tampa Bay, but Denver held Carr to a season-low 184 yards through the air, his second game this season throwing for 200 yards or less. The Raiders picked up their first home cover of the season in four tries, while improving to 3-9 ATS since the start of 2015 at the Coliseum.

POINTS APLENTY

Whenever the Raiders take the field, expect the scoreboard to light up. For the exception of two games in which Oakland was limited to 17 points or fewer, the Raiders have posted OVERS in seven of nine contests. The Silver and Black has scored at least 28 points seven times, while losing only once when eclipsing this point mark (Week 2 against Atlanta in 35-28 defeat).

Last season, the Raiders cashed the OVER in three of the first four games away from the Black Hole, but finished 3-0-1 to the UNDER in the last four road contests. Even though Oakland is the home team on Monday, we’ll look at their away numbers as Jack Del Rio’s squad is 4-1 to the OVER in five games away from the Coliseum.

NON-DIVISION NONSENSE

The Texans have compiled a terrific 6-1 record against AFC South opponents on the road since Bill O’Brien took over as head coach in 2014. However, Houston has struggled on the highway against non-division foes in this stretch by posting a 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS record, including an 0-3 SU/ATS mark this season. Two of those victories came in the underdog role with one of those wins at Cincinnati last season as a 10-point ‘dog in a 10-6 Monday night triumph. The third victory came against, you guessed it, the Raiders back in 2014.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time these teams faced off was in Week 2 of the 2014 campaign in Oakland as the Texans roughed up the Raiders, 30-14 as three-point road favorites. The Houston defense intercepted Carr twice, while Oakland held the ball for a shade over 21 minutes. Oakland won the previous two meetings in Houston in 2011 and 2013, but the Raiders have lost six of nine lifetime matchups with the Texans since 2004.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Raiders as 5 ½-point favorites, but that number has moved up slightly to 6 heading into Monday. The total opened at 46 as that number has lowered to 45 at the Westgate, but a handful of books have kept the 46 number.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Joe Nelson says the quarterback advantage obviously lies with the Raiders, but he breaks down some stunning numbers on Houston’s signal-caller, “Carr is rated as a top 10 quarterback despite a heavy workload of pass attempts as he has one of the lowest interception rates of all-time going in his young career, including just three in 354 attempts so far this season. Osweiler has nine interceptions this season and his QB rating ranks 31st in the NFL, only ahead of since-benched starters Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Fitzpatrick among qualified players. Osweiler has completed just over 58 percent of his passes and his 5.6 yards per attempt rate is the very worst in the NFL.”

However, the Texans have fattened up against weak competition according to Nelson, “Statistically there is a huge edge for Houston defensively in this matchup with the Texans eighth in the NFL in yards per play allowed, but the schedule rates among the weaker slates in the league and only a Week 2 win over Kansas City at this point rates as a high quality win for the Texans. The Texans have been out-gained in four of the last five contests despite winning three of those games and the lone game in that run where Houston had a yardage edge was the miraculous overtime win over Indianapolis.”

PROPS – According to the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Houston

B. Osweiler - Total Gross Passing Yards
232 ½ - OVER (-110)
232 ½ - UNDER (-110)

B. Osweiler – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+115)
1 ½ - UNDER (-135)

L. Miller – Total Rushing Yards
80 ½ - OVER (-110)
80 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Oakland

D. Carr – Total Completions
24 ½ - OVER (-110)
24 ½ - UNDER (-110)

D. Carr – Total Touchdown Passes
2 – OVER (+120)
2 – UNDER (-140)

Will A. Cooper score a touchdown?
YES (+120)
NO (-140)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday Night Football betting preview: Texans vs Raiders

Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders (-6, 45)

The NFL returns to Mexico City for the first time in 11 years when the Oakland Raiders square off against the Houston Texans on Monday night in a battle of AFC division leaders. While the Raiders are listed as the home team, they may not mind playing across the border since they are 5-0 away from Oakland this season.

“We kind of expect it to be like a road game for the offense and special teams and home game for the defense in that our crowd is going to be really loud,” Raiders coach Jack Del Rio told reporters. Surging Oakland entered its bye with a three-game winning streak punctuated by a 30-20 victory over reigning Super Bowl champion Denver. Houston posted its first road win of the season with a 24-21 triumph at Jacksonville to open a 1 1/2-game lead in the AFC South. The Texans, winners of two straight, had been outscored 85-22 in losing their first three away from home.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened the betting week as 5.5-point neutral site favorites and the public has bet them up slightly to their current number of -6. The total hit the betting board at 46.5 and has dropped down to 45 as of Sunday evening.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper-50's for Monday night's game in Mexico City. Wind should not be a factor and the POP is at 1 percent.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Altitude and air pollution could play a role this game and affect the players. Both teams normally play at sea level, but Azteca Stadium is 7,380 feet above sea level. Denver's Mile High Stadium is only 5,280 feet up. Thin air can often affect quarterbacks early in the game as the ball travels farther than normal. But it will help kickers and make longer field goals possible." - Steve Merril.

INJURY REPORT:

Texans - RB L. Miller (Probable, ankle), NT V. Wilfork (Probable, groin), CB A. Bouye (Probable, ankle), T D. Brown (Questionable, knee), T C. Clark (Questionable, hip), DE J. Clowney (Questionable, wrist), S E. Pleasant (Questionable, neck), LB J. Simon (Questionable, shoulder), LB B. Peters (Questionable, quadricep), WR W. Fuller (Questionable, leg), RB J. Grimes (Questionable, illness), WR J. Strong (Out, ankle), RB A. Blue (Out, calf), DE J. Watt (Out For Season, back).

Raiders - CB S. Smith (Probable, shoulder), WR A. Cooper (Probable, back), RB L. Murray (Probable, ankle), DT S. McGee (Questionable, ankle), G V. Alexander (Questionable, ankle), LB A. Smith (Out Indefinitely, suspension), DE M. Edwards (Questionable, hip).

ABOUT THE TEXANS (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, 4-5 O/U): Brock Osweiler threw for a pair of touchdowns but only 99 yards at Jacksonville and has registered only 416 passing yards over his last three games. With Osweiler continuing to struggle, Houston leaned on its running game to carry the offense as Lamar Miller, the team's other marquee free-agent signing, rushed for 83 yards to spark an attack that produced a season-high 181. DeAndre Hopkins had 111 receptions for 1,521 yards and 11 TDs last season, but he's been limited to 56 yards or fewer in seven of the nine games. The Texans rank fourth in total defense, giving up 317.4 yards per game.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 O/U): Oakland is averaging 31 points during its three-game winning streak and is 6-1 in its last seven, tying it with Kansas City for first place in the AFC West. Derek Carr has been the driving force for the offense with 17 scoring passes and three interceptions, but he played a supporting role against the Broncos. While Carr failed to throw a TD pass for the first time and finished with a season-low 184 yards, running back Latavius Murray rambled for 114 yards and three scores. Defensive end Khalil Mack has recorded two sacks in back-to-back games and a total of six in the last four contests, boosting his season total to seven.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
* Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.
* Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The favorite Raiders are picking 69 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 66 percent of the total action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday Night Football Predictions: Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders Odds & Picks
by Alan Matthews

Let's not get into an election argument here, and it doesn't matter to me whether you voted for Trump or Hillary. But I think even the most ardent Trump backers had to be a bit taken aback by some of the things he has said about Mexicans. Whether he actually deports all those illegal immigrants and builds a wall we will have to see.

I'm quite sure that back when the NFL announced it was playing this Monday night's game at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City that the things Trump said weren't even a second thought. But I do think it will be interesting to see what happens Monday before the Texans-Raiders game regarding the American National Anthem.

Here's hoping that nothing detracts from what could be a very important game and matches division leaders. Why pick these two teams for the league's first game south of the border since Oct. 2, 2005, and first-ever international Monday night game? The Raiders are a popular team in Mexico because of their colors, nickname and outlaw image. I do wonder whether Oakland officials now regret giving up a home game with the team a Super Bowl contender. And the Texans are a natural with the proximity to Mexico.

Texans at Raiders Betting Story Lines

Houston (6-3) entered Week 11 up two games in the loss column on Tennessee and Indianapolis in the AFC South, and those two teams play each other on Sunday. The Texans already own one win over both but still have to visit Indy and Nashville.

This past Sunday, the Texans got their first road win of the year, but barely: 24-21 at Jacksonville. Brock Osweiler has been largely a $72 million bust and has been the NFL's worst road quarterback. He wasn't much better in that game in throwing for just 99 yards on 27 attempts. How is that even possible? On the bright side, he did have two TD throws and didn't turn it over. But this team is going nowhere if Osweiler doesn't improve his NFL-worst 5.61 yards per attempt. The Texans have play-making weapons in running back Lamar Miller and receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, although Fuller has really tailed off after a quick start and missed the Jacksonville game injured. The rookie should play this week as should nose tackle Vince Wilfork and cornerback A.J. Bouye, who both missed the Jags game.

The Raiders (7-2) come off their bye on a three-game winning streak and are tied for the AFC's best record -- yet if the postseason started right now would be a wild-card team. That's because Kansas City is also 7-2 and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. Those two play again Week 14 on a Thursday in K.C. The Broncos are just a half-game back of the Chiefs and Raiders but have played one more game. Frankly, both the Chiefs and Broncos were incredibly lucky to win Week 10. The AFC West has three seven-win teams through Week 10. That hasn't happened in any division since 1999. (AFC East and the Patriots weren't one of them!)

With the first pick of the 2014 draft, the Texans took South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. At the time, that was fine because he was the No. 1 overall prospect and dominant in college. What I have an issue with was Houston taking UCLA guard Xavier Su'a-Filo with the first pick of the second round when that franchise badly needed a quarterback. Just three picks later, the Raiders took Derek Carr out of Fresno State, and he's a rising superstar and MVP candidate. Carr has 17 touchdowns and three interceptions this season and his 5.67 TD/INT ratio is the best mark in the league among players with at least 15 touchdown passes. Houston ranks No. 3 in the NFL against the pass.

The Raiders have a Super Bowl-caliber offense, although I'm not totally sold on running back Latavius Murray. There are two good rookies to complement him in Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. The defense started terribly but has been better of late, particularly Khalil Mack. In the four games before the bye, Mack ranked third in the NFL with six sacks, including two multi-sack performances. Stopping him will be job No. 1 for that so-so Houston offensive line. Osweiler has been sacked 17 times.

Texans at Raiders Betting Odds and Trends

Oakland is a 6-point favorite (-110) with a total of 46. On the moneyline, the Raiders are -245 and Texans +205. On the alternate lines, the Raiders are -6.5 (-103) and -5.5 (-117). Houston is 5-3-1 against the spread (1-3 on road) and 4-5 "over/under" (2-2 on road). I'm going to give Oakland's road numbers too: the Raiders are 6-3 ATS (5-0 on road) and 7-2 O/U (4-1 on road).

Houston is 2-5 ATS in its past seven vs. teams with a winning record. It is 1-8 ATS in its past nine on Monday. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their past four after a bye. They are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 vs. the AFC. The under is 6-2 in Houston's past eight after a win. The over is 5-1 in Oakland's past six.

Texans at Raiders Betting Prediction

Houston is 6-3 all-time in this series and won the most recent matchup, 30-14 in Week 2 of the 2014 season in Oakland. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the Texans' starting QB that day. J.J. Watt caught a TD pass and Arian Foster ran for 138 yards and a score. Fitzpatrick is now with the Jets, Watt is out for the season and Foster has retired. Carr threw for 263 yards, a TD and two picks. Oakland turned it over four times.

Maybe Osweiler just stinks in the United States and will find his game out of it. Yeah, probably not. Raiders are healthier and well-rested and have played better away from home. Give the six and go under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Monday Night Football'

This Monday Night'r comes to us from Mexico City where the Oakland Raiders square off against the Houston Texans. Oakland has opened -6.0 point favorites for good reason. The Raiders off a bye are averaging 27.2 points/game behind QB Derek Carr's 17 TD's vs 3 Int and come in ridding a three game win streak including a 30-20 victory over reigning Super Bowl champion Denver in its last effort. Although, Raiders are listed as the home team in this clash playing away from Oakland Coliseum suits them just fine. In their five games this season away from the frienzied home crowd they're 5-0 SU/ATS. Dating back to last year the squad has a 7-1 SU record with a sparkling 8-0 mark against the betting line away from the Coliseum. One final betting nugget, Raiders have thrived against the betting line last four after a bye going 4-0 ATS.

The Texans notching just 17.9 per/contest behind QB Brock Osweiler tossing 11 TD's vs 9 Int have won two straight after picking up their first road win last week defeating Jacksonville 24-21 cashing as 3-point road underdogs. Well to note the offensively challenged Houston squad are in a tough betting spot. The Texans are a vig losing 4-4-1 ATS in the second of back-2-back road games, 0-3-1 after beating Jaguars, 1-7-1 ATS away vs a team with winning percentage of .666% or greater.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Post: 8:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$9000 - NON WINNERS $6500 IN LAST 5 STARTS. NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD TRAINER CHANGE HN 9 V.COPELAND TO D.SANTANTONIO
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 NEELY'S MESSENGER 8/5
# 9 CASH ON DELIVERY 3/1
# 3 NORTHERN SPARK 7/2

NEELY'S MESSENGER most definitely looks the interesting entrant to beat in this one. The panel of smart guys gives this entrant a respectable chance to come home a winner, class ratings are tops in the grouping. Should be considered for this race if only for the good TrackMaster Speed Rating recorded in the most recent race. This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win statistic. CASH ON DELIVERY - Has really strong speed ratings and quite possibly has to be considered for a play in this event. This gelding has been performing against some of the most competitive horses in this field of horses lately. NORTHERN SPARK - Earned a 80 speed fig in last race. A duplicate effort here should get the top prize in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Post: 8:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$20000 - NON-WINNERS OF 4 P-M RACES OR $40,000 LIFETIME. 2,3& 4 YEAR OLD COLTS, HORSES & GELDINGS
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 CONCUR 9/5
# 7 NOX VEGAS BLUECHIP 5/2
# 3 HAPPY ANDYVERSARY 7/1

We've got an instinct CONCUR is going to get the top prize. Been competing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 85). With a competitive 84 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. Driver-trainer are no strangers to the winners circle and should have this gelding breaking away from the field of starters. NOX VEGAS BLUECHIP - May provide us a trip to the winner's circle based on really strong recent TrackMaster Speed Ratings - earning an avg of 86. He has nice class figures, averaging 86. Could be considered for a bet in this race. HAPPY ANDYVERSARY - Many horse players will recognize the great TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last outing. Stacks up against any horse in this bunch. With better than average win stats, Dube should have this gelding in excellent position to win the competition.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 77

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2015-2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 21 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 2 KING DIX C 3/2

# 1 DIAMOND SHOWCASE 7/2

# 5 BOB E 5/2

KING DIX C has a respectable shot to take this race. Should best this group here, showing decent figures of late. Could beat this group of animals given the 78 speed rating recorded in his last outing. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run recently. DIAMOND SHOWCASE - Must be carefully examined based on the competitive Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last contest. Is a very strong contender based on figures garnered lately under today's conditions. BOB E - Could provide positive gains based on respectable recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 64. With Cruz on top him, this gelding should be able to break out quickly in this competition.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16200 Class Rating: 96

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 21 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 W V A BRED RACES


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 4 REMEMBERTOBREATHE 7/2

# 6 PALTARREVENGE 6/1

# 7 EXPLORE 2/1

REMEMBERTOBREATHE is the top bet in this race. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Lyster running at this distance are the strongest in this field. Ought to compete admirably in the early pace contest which bodes well with this field. Garnered a solid speed rating in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. PALTARREVENGE - The speed figure of 88 from his latest contest looks decent in here. Must be given a chance given the class of races run lately. EXPLORE - Win percentage one of the best in this group of horses in this race. This gelding has posted some nice finishing positions in his last couple of efforts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #8 - Post: 3:34pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $44,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#2 AIKEN PREP (ML=8/1)
#4 SNOW TROUBLE (ML=3/1)
#3 FREELANDER (ML=5/1)


AIKEN PREP - Gelding's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. This jock and conditioner's animals have been producing a profitable ROI. As long as Gonzalez keeps this horse off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a winner. PP lines show this horse with three improving speed ratings. Gonzalez should be on a horse ready to go right here in this race. SNOW TROUBLE - Don't throw out based on last race finish. He didn't hit the board, but made a nice move in the lane making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price. FREELANDER - This gelding is in top form right now. Ended up second last out and comes back quickly. This gelding's last speed fig registered on Oct 25th is tops in last race speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 GRAVES ISLAND (ML=4/1), #5 YA (ML=9/2), #7 GRIT'N'GRIND (ML=6/1),

GRAVES ISLAND - Finished third in his most recent race with a run-of-the-mill fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this field. YA - If he goes off close to the M/L odds of 9/2, I'll have to pass. GRIT'N'GRIND - The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced equine.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #2 AIKEN PREP to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

2 with [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Zia Park - Race #10 - Post: 4:12pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#7 DODSON (ML=3/1)
#9 THECRYPTARRIVES (ML=4/1)


DODSON - I took a look at this gelding's finishes. He's almost always in-the-money. Just look at his most recent speed fig, 75. That one looks good in this bunch. Ran last out against tougher competition at Ruidoso Downs. The move to a lower level should suit him well. THECRYPTARRIVES - Atop this horse on November 8th and Chavez is back again in the irons in this race. Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a strong race on November 8th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 RISK IT ALL (ML=5/1), #6 D E SLOT MAN (ML=6/1), #11 MR MOO (ML=8/1),

RISK IT ALL - This gelding hasn't had any on the board results in sprint affairs in the last couple months. D E SLOT MAN - Couldn't make up ground at all on Oct 31st. Hard to play this time at the expected odds. Will be tough for this mount to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underlays list. MR MOO - Hard to bet on any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the shot.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 DODSON to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [7,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Monday 11/21 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 5,7,8/9,10/2/1,3,5/4,5,7 = $7.20

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,5/4,5,7/3,6/3,4,7 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 3,4,7/4,6,8/5,6/6,7 = $36

MEET STATS: 13 - 52 / $78.90 BEST BETS: 3 - 5 / $9.30

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 5 / $0.00

Best Bet: WINDSUN REVENGE (3rd)

Spot Play: PAR INTENDED (5th)


Race 1

(8) GIVE EM HECK raced decently from the 10-hole last week and he has a much better chance of clearing to the front early here, which is where he wants to be; slight nod. (7) LISVINNIE went a very long trip last week and he is another that could get position early which would improve his chances here. (5) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE was out the route last week which dulled his late closing bid. He too should improve here with a better trip. (3) DRAKE should hit the ticket off an inside following trip.

Race 2

(10) SHOOT THE THRILL drops back down to the level at which he was claimed and notice he jogged that night; top call. (9) TOGA TOWN raced tough last time on the rim and he is likely getting closer to his first win in a long time; using. (6) ALACRITY could wake up here at a price dropping into a claimer for his second start back off a break. (2) LISEBERG can take a smaller share racing from close range here.

Race 3

(2) WINDSUN REVENGE should be able to handle this group coming off a solid Breeders Crown effort. (8) IL SOGNO DREAM also faces his easiest field in some time and he should be a factor here. (6) FEARLESS MAN looks sharp returning from a break and he loves Woodbine. The longer he gets left alone on the lead, the tougher he will be. (3) YOURE MAJESTIC steps up noticeably, but she is razor-sharp and is worthy of exotics consideration here.

Race 4

(1) SHES A MANIAC made two moves in a winning effort last week and the step up in class here isn't dramatic; slight nod. (5) LADY JEN drops and moves to the middle of the gate; expect improvement. (3) ALEXAS HOPE was closing sharply at the end of her mile last week and she gets Waples here; using. (10) DONNA PARTY rates highly on form, but the 10-hole could be her undoing here.

Race 5

(5) PAR INTENDED goes right back into the same class off a sharp win and he could easily attract another claim here; top call. (4) HIGHLAND TARTAN also goes for a new barn here off a super effort where he showed some grit. Toss him on your multi-race tickets. (7) LONEWOLF CURRIER had a good trip on the choice's cover but he couldn't reach him late. He isn't out of this, but he will likely find the top two troublesome. (2) JENKINS CREEEK was a sharp winner off the claim last time and he should factor here racing on or near the front.

Race 6

(3) TRUE MUSCLE should improve sharply vs. easier here and she should get put into the race earlier than she has been; slight nod. (6) MOSTINTERESTINGMAN is only a one-time winner, but he too should enjoy the easier company this time. (5) DEUCE DEUCE DEUCE has missed six weeks of action but he does add Lasix here and he figures on form; your call. (8) SECRETCODE HANOVER set strong splits last time then tired late. He can take a smaller share here if he doesn't get hung out early.

Race 7

(4) MACH MESSIER moves up off a strong effort in defeat to an up-and-coming colt. He could take these gate-to-wire. (3) LATE NIGHT goes for three straight and he is hard to ignore in his current sharp state. (7) DREAMY FELLA drops from non-winners of five and he should be heard from down the lane here using his potent closing kick. (8) JACK RACKHAM should be a threat here exiting the Autumn series, but he must overcome the outer post position.

Race 8

(6) CASH FOR GOLD drops slightly and he should be right there vs. these if he starts his move early enough. (8) CATCH THE DREAM also rates highly in this class if he can stay on stride this time. (4) ITS HUW YOU KNOW should be a pace factor if he can overcome his recent gait issues here. (1) OLYMPIC SON steps up off a win, but he can be a factor here off a similar following trip.

Race 9

(5) ER QUINN could easily get the same winning pocket trip here as he did last week; top call. (6) NEVER BEEN TOLD moves up off a strong win and he will have to be caught, but, if the choice sits in his pocket, he could get picked off late in the mile. (3) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER can improve if he gets put into the race at some point this time. (4) CUNDALINI figures to sit an inside following trip and re-emerge for a smaller share here.

Race 10

(6) EAST END gets off the rail here which should enable a better start. He should be prominent throughout. (7) PUTNAMS LEGACY also moves to a post that is better for leaving hard, which is likely with him here; using. (4) SHADOWFALL is one of the better closers in the field. Look for him late if there is a lot of action early in the mile. (1) CENTURY CHURCHILL should share off an inside following trip. (8) SHARKY SHARK still has some upside making only his third start here. He can pass many of these late.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 11/21 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF

MEET STATS: 284 - 1189 / $1,832.70

BEST BETS: 32 - 111 / $151.10

Best Bet: I SAID PLEASE (7th)

Spot Play: PT B QUICK (2nd)


Race 1

(5) ANOTHER LOOK took charge at the 3/4 pole but was nailed for win honors last out by (6) RD BILLIE. Very possible she might turn the tables on that rival. (6) RD BILLIE was very game in the pocket to get the job done recently; threat again. (8) MI VIDA came late on the scene to mow them down last out; beware despite the move to the 8-hole.

Race 2

(2) PT B QUICK makes his first try at the Hilltop and gets a cozy post to work with; could take this at his best. (5) VINOVIO took the pocket route last time around for all the glory; player again. (4) ROCK POWER Gelding is knocking at the door based on his last two tries so watch out.

Race 3

(4) GIVEMEYOURHEART Filly is on a roll scoring her last two starts. Form is sharp, so with that said, the hat trick is clearly not out of the question. (7) ROSY OUTLOOK put in a mild rally and lost glory by only a neck; big threat. (2) SOUTHWIND TANGO is better than her last try and door number two can help her cause; maybe.

Race 4

(4) RACE WITH GRACE gets post relief tonight off her closing third-place finish last time out. Filly seems to be heading in the right direction and she has every right to get the job done. (8) WINNERS OVER is another that is knocking at the door, but will have to take this from post eight; possible. (2) HEARTS WILD is back inside where she was a fast closing winner two trips ago.

Race 5

(7) FASHION DRAGON did not have the best of trips as the chalk last time out, but this gelding is much better that effort; ready to fire his best if given a perfect trip. (1) BALLERAT BOOMERANG took down the hat trick from the fence last time out and the gelding retains the rail; dangerous again. (6) BREAKTIME HANOVER was sitting in the pocket most of the way but could not get to the winner in his most recent outing; not out of this.

Race 6

(5) CONCUR was very game for third money at the Meadowlands last time out and now the gelding moves to the half-mile oval and gets the services of Bartlett; candidate. (2) SPINSTIGATOR raced evenly and held the show spot last week; could make some noise against these. (7) NOX VEGAS BLUECHIP fits well in here and he could be right in the mix with a favorable trip.

Race 7

(8) I SAID PLEASE Pacing filly has good tactical speed and she will need it with the move to the 8-hole. Good to see Bartlett with the drive and there's a possibility he can get the sophomore to greet the cameraman for pictures. (4) CHEYENNE TRIENGEL came close to glory last time out losing by 1/2 length; big threat. (1) HUG A PRINCESS gets post relief and that should help her cause; watch out.

Race 8

(4) PRETTY BOY HILL came first up and held on for the victory last out. Sophomore colt seems to be in winning form so two straight is not out of the question. (3) DERECHO was sent down the road in his last trip for all the glory; main danger. (2) MAURICE has hit the board in his last three tries so he clearly is not out of this by far.

Race 9

(7) FINE DIAMOND moves down in class for team Brennan/Burke so post 7 should not be a problem for this 3-year-old pacer; gets the call. (4) SETTLEMOIR flashed some speed in his latest at Pocono and could have a say against this group. (1) GOLDEN GESTURE went evenly in his last start and could land a share from the fence.

Race 10

(1) IN THE HUDDLE was caught for the score last out, but this gelding is coming off a sharp performance two trips ago and now he lands the rail; the pick. (4) CAVIART SKYLER showed speed but came up empty in the stretch drive at Philly recently; player. (8) IDEAL JIMMY moves down the ladder but will have to get the job done from door number eight; capable.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Finger Lakes (6th) My Favorite Two, 3-1
(8th) Keepin It Zeal, 9-2


Mountaineer (1st) Save My Soul, 7-2
(5th) Don't Defy Me, 3-1


Parx (2nd) Rienzi, 3-1
(4th) Wyandot, 7-2


Thistledown (5th) Bucket Beat, 5-1
(6th) Summer Shoe, 4-1


Turf Paradise (5th) Allen's Crown, 3-1
(7th) Migiwewin, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks this week in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Raiders -5.5 (430)

5) Buccaneers +7.5 (434)- W

4) Vikings even (400)- W

3) Titans +3 (509)- L

2) Dolphins -2.5 (516)- W

1) Ravens +7 (596)- L

season record: 20-44-2