Mohawk: Monday 10/24 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,6,8/2,3,4/1,2,7/3,7/3,5,10 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 3,7/3,5,10/5,7,8/2,3,4 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 1,3/5,7/3,6,7/2 = $12
MEET STATS: 439 - 1290 / $2286.90 BEST BETS: 70 - 118 / $218.40
SPOT PLAYS: 29 - 118 / $182.30
Best Bet: SMALLTOWN TERROR (11th)
Spot Play: ST LADS LOTTO (5th)
Race 1
(1) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER has raced well first up the past two starts. Maybe Cullen pulls the trigger earlier here, brushes and crushes. (8) GIVE EM HECK gets Henry here which could mean an all-out speed try is coming. I'll use him in the Pick 5. (6) LIGHT FOOT RD had a long trip last week and still managed to take a share. He isn't out of this. (4) CURATOR can close late for a slice here.
Race 2
(2) PAMPERED IN PINK raced well in her first start over a big track and displayed good late speed. I will give her the call over (4) STORMONT DUNDAS, who frequently looks best on paper but just can't seem to get there and is almost sure to be chalk again. (3) E T PHONE HOME is another to consider for Pick 5 bets off his impressive debut race two back. (9) WEVE HAD ENOUGH has a similar profile to Stormont Dundas and has had 9 more starts. A minor award is likely.
Race 3
(7) FRONTIER SEELSTER was a sharp debut winner last week and he should get a decent pace to chase here. The short field also helps; call to repeat. (1) ALWAYS ROCK N ROLL provided the cover to the choice last time and he was a solid second; using. (2) TUXEDO BAY faces much easier here and he should rebound with a good mile. (6) SOME ATTITUDE exits a World Record mile at the Delaware County Fair but he has overbet chalk written all over him having missed 35 days action; pass.
Race 4
(7) WHO DOESN'T had a race over the track now takes a big class drop. Expect early aggression form owner/trainer/driver Cullen here. (3) TEA WITH MS MCGILL was live at a big price last time but he simply ran out of racetrack in the stretch. That was maybe the soundest he has ever looked; using. (1) CAPITOL TRIP is worth a look for the exotics off his good race on the 11th. (10) TWICE AS BRIGHT could be dangerous if he can clear right away, but that is likely a tough chore from post 10.
Race 5
(5) ST LADS LOTTO moves to the middle of the gate here which should enable a much better start here which makes him dangerous. He could also be a very good price here. (10) BROOKDALE SONNY has a mark of 1:53 3/5 taken here earlier in the meet. He is interesting here coming off a winning tightener in the Maritimes. (3) JENKINS CREEK comes out of a crazy fast Flamboro race where he had no chance but he still passed some horses late. He could trip out here near the front; using. (2) BEAST MODE is clearly not the same horse now that he was at the start of the summer. I'll try to beat him here and hope he gets pounded at the windows again.
Race 6
(5) WARAWEE PROTON got back on track at Flamboro now he goes first off the claim here from a good post; top call. (8) TOGA TOWN raced great last time and that is by far the best line on his card; using. (7) CONWAY ESCAPE is in solid form out of town and he should use his good tactical speed to his advantage here. Toss him on Pick 4 tickets. (3) MOST WANTED LINDY figures to follow along and stay for a small share here.
Race 7
(2) MASERATI SEELSTER moves inside and goes for Weller here. I'll give him the nod over a sharp (3) JIMMY BE GOOD, who is a must-use on Pick 4 tickets for me. (4) PANEDICTINE comes off a lifetime-best score vs. easier. He may find a couple of these too tough, but he too is worth Pick 4 consideration. (5) CHOSEN HOMBRE is in solid form and he should be closing for a piece here.
Race 8
(1) TANGO STAR demolished similar last week despite a 17-day gap between starts. Returning in 7 days should make him even tougher; top call. (4) ARCHANGEL THREE gets Zeron back here and he does best with him; using. (7) AWESOMENESS tripped out perfectly to break his maiden last time. He can close for a smaller share vs. tougher here. (10) SENIOR K raced much better last time. He could hit the ticket at a big price here.
Race 9
(7) MR IRRESISTIBLE put up some big early splits and kept right on going last week. This isn't the toughest conditioned field; call to repeat. (5) SHOCK N ROCK could trip out in the choice's pocket here then pounce late; using. (9) MITT JAGGER showed some kick at the end of his mile last week. He could be a live longshot here and Henry may move him much earlier. (6) ZINGERS LAUGH figures for a smaller piece of this purse.
Race 10
(6) HIGHLAND TARTAN stands a good chance of blasting to the front and controlling things here. (7) NOBETTERPLACETOBE drops to a level where he should be more of a factor; notice his solid record of finishing in the exacta. (3) SKYWAY BOMBER is another with a great record of making the top two and he, too, should be a factor here. (2) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE should be closing for a piece again here.
Race 11
(2) SMALLTOWN TERROR takes a significant class drop here and he should be tough to beat starting from the inside. (4) ER QUINN was a decent second to a blowout winner when re-classified to this conditioned claimer last week. He's in with a shot here. (9) PYLATER was a solid winner last week while looking a little bumpy in spots; small share predicted this time. (6) BAZINGA BRAD is in great form out of town and he can get a decent trip near the front here; consider. (10) THINK AGAIN can sneak onto the Pick 5 ticket here if he can land a spot that isn't too far back early.
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,6,8/2,3,4/1,2,7/3,7/3,5,10 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 3,7/3,5,10/5,7,8/2,3,4 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 1,3/5,7/3,6,7/2 = $12
MEET STATS: 439 - 1290 / $2286.90 BEST BETS: 70 - 118 / $218.40
SPOT PLAYS: 29 - 118 / $182.30
Best Bet: SMALLTOWN TERROR (11th)
Spot Play: ST LADS LOTTO (5th)
Race 1
(1) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER has raced well first up the past two starts. Maybe Cullen pulls the trigger earlier here, brushes and crushes. (8) GIVE EM HECK gets Henry here which could mean an all-out speed try is coming. I'll use him in the Pick 5. (6) LIGHT FOOT RD had a long trip last week and still managed to take a share. He isn't out of this. (4) CURATOR can close late for a slice here.
Race 2
(2) PAMPERED IN PINK raced well in her first start over a big track and displayed good late speed. I will give her the call over (4) STORMONT DUNDAS, who frequently looks best on paper but just can't seem to get there and is almost sure to be chalk again. (3) E T PHONE HOME is another to consider for Pick 5 bets off his impressive debut race two back. (9) WEVE HAD ENOUGH has a similar profile to Stormont Dundas and has had 9 more starts. A minor award is likely.
Race 3
(7) FRONTIER SEELSTER was a sharp debut winner last week and he should get a decent pace to chase here. The short field also helps; call to repeat. (1) ALWAYS ROCK N ROLL provided the cover to the choice last time and he was a solid second; using. (2) TUXEDO BAY faces much easier here and he should rebound with a good mile. (6) SOME ATTITUDE exits a World Record mile at the Delaware County Fair but he has overbet chalk written all over him having missed 35 days action; pass.
Race 4
(7) WHO DOESN'T had a race over the track now takes a big class drop. Expect early aggression form owner/trainer/driver Cullen here. (3) TEA WITH MS MCGILL was live at a big price last time but he simply ran out of racetrack in the stretch. That was maybe the soundest he has ever looked; using. (1) CAPITOL TRIP is worth a look for the exotics off his good race on the 11th. (10) TWICE AS BRIGHT could be dangerous if he can clear right away, but that is likely a tough chore from post 10.
Race 5
(5) ST LADS LOTTO moves to the middle of the gate here which should enable a much better start here which makes him dangerous. He could also be a very good price here. (10) BROOKDALE SONNY has a mark of 1:53 3/5 taken here earlier in the meet. He is interesting here coming off a winning tightener in the Maritimes. (3) JENKINS CREEK comes out of a crazy fast Flamboro race where he had no chance but he still passed some horses late. He could trip out here near the front; using. (2) BEAST MODE is clearly not the same horse now that he was at the start of the summer. I'll try to beat him here and hope he gets pounded at the windows again.
Race 6
(5) WARAWEE PROTON got back on track at Flamboro now he goes first off the claim here from a good post; top call. (8) TOGA TOWN raced great last time and that is by far the best line on his card; using. (7) CONWAY ESCAPE is in solid form out of town and he should use his good tactical speed to his advantage here. Toss him on Pick 4 tickets. (3) MOST WANTED LINDY figures to follow along and stay for a small share here.
Race 7
(2) MASERATI SEELSTER moves inside and goes for Weller here. I'll give him the nod over a sharp (3) JIMMY BE GOOD, who is a must-use on Pick 4 tickets for me. (4) PANEDICTINE comes off a lifetime-best score vs. easier. He may find a couple of these too tough, but he too is worth Pick 4 consideration. (5) CHOSEN HOMBRE is in solid form and he should be closing for a piece here.
Race 8
(1) TANGO STAR demolished similar last week despite a 17-day gap between starts. Returning in 7 days should make him even tougher; top call. (4) ARCHANGEL THREE gets Zeron back here and he does best with him; using. (7) AWESOMENESS tripped out perfectly to break his maiden last time. He can close for a smaller share vs. tougher here. (10) SENIOR K raced much better last time. He could hit the ticket at a big price here.
Race 9
(7) MR IRRESISTIBLE put up some big early splits and kept right on going last week. This isn't the toughest conditioned field; call to repeat. (5) SHOCK N ROCK could trip out in the choice's pocket here then pounce late; using. (9) MITT JAGGER showed some kick at the end of his mile last week. He could be a live longshot here and Henry may move him much earlier. (6) ZINGERS LAUGH figures for a smaller piece of this purse.
Race 10
(6) HIGHLAND TARTAN stands a good chance of blasting to the front and controlling things here. (7) NOBETTERPLACETOBE drops to a level where he should be more of a factor; notice his solid record of finishing in the exacta. (3) SKYWAY BOMBER is another with a great record of making the top two and he, too, should be a factor here. (2) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE should be closing for a piece again here.
Race 11
(2) SMALLTOWN TERROR takes a significant class drop here and he should be tough to beat starting from the inside. (4) ER QUINN was a decent second to a blowout winner when re-classified to this conditioned claimer last week. He's in with a shot here. (9) PYLATER was a solid winner last week while looking a little bumpy in spots; small share predicted this time. (6) BAZINGA BRAD is in great form out of town and he can get a decent trip near the front here; consider. (10) THINK AGAIN can sneak onto the Pick 5 ticket here if he can land a spot that isn't too far back early.
