Woodbine Harness: Monday 10/19 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF HARNESS
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1,3,5/1,3,7/2,6,7/1,4,8/2,5,10 = $48.60
EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,8/2,5,10/2,6,9/1,3 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 2,8/6,9/6,7,8/1,4,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 31 - 98 / 162.70 BEST BETS: 3 - 8 / $11.70
SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 9 / 30.30
Best Bet: BIG BANG BOOM (8th)
Spot Play: RANDOM LIGHTNING (5th)
Race 1
(1) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE has really improved in claimers and shown he can both start and finish quickly; call to repeat. (3) SURF REPORT was narrowly beaten by the choice last time and should be prominent throughout here. (5) PIER HO TEMPTATION is another that was in the photo with the two above. He's another contender in a race with many.
Race 2
(7) MEADOW SEELSTER led until late last week now gets back to a 7-day schedule and should be tighter for this. (1) SHEGUINDAH sat in the choice's pocket and trotted by late. She's the one to beat. (3) LMC MARSHMELLOW faces easier here and is one to use on pick 5 tickets.
Race 3
(2) CHESTNUT SCHOFIELD is the best closer in a race that could set up for one and he never gets bet. He could take this at a big price. (6) NOFEAR BLUE CHIP was racing well up to his last start when he broke early in the OSS Superfinals. He's another to consider that has a good late kick. (7) V FOR VICTORY was forced to trot faster than ever before early last time in an OSS Gold event and that effort took its toll late. He should rebound here with a better effort.
Race 4
(8) UFDRAGONS ROCKET has raced well out of town in the top class in his last two and rates highly here. (1) MACH OF BALLYKEEL left hard then sat in behind some solid splits and came out late for his first win of the season. A repeat is very possible. (4) ALWAYS THERE recorded by far the quickest final 1/4 in his last start which makes him dangerous here.
Race 5
(10) RANDOM LIGHTNING made a menacing move in the stretch last week but was picked off by two others that had her cover. She will be a good price here and can do if placed somewhere in the top six early. (5) BUZZ failed as the chalk last week but could rebound here if driven slightly less aggressively. (2) MY MY HEY HEY is competitive when his gait issues don't take him out of contention; tough call.
Race 6
(2) BIG PETES STYLE is 1 for 1 lifetime facing nine others that are a combined 2 for 101. It wouldn't be a shocker to see him repeat here moving to the big circuit. (9) FULL TIME GIG has been getting closer but his 0-16 record doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. (6) MAJOR DAN got outsprinted late last time but could do some damage on the front end here if left alone winging it.
Race 7
(3) KAMIKAZE LINDY was closing best last time but the winner was long gone already. That race followed a 5-week break and now he comes back much quicker; top call. (1) LMC MASS OAK was live last time both early and late. He's a major player here. (5) GRONK looks good on paper, but is 1 for 16 because he breaks so often. He's useable in the pick 4 but not worth a short price in the win pool.
Race 8
(8) BIG BANG BOOM was a monster debut winner and should be able to double up here but will be odds-on for sure. (2) DAYLIGHT RUSH closed belatedly in a bit of a dull effort but is a good bet to complete this exacta. (4) CARIBOU BEACH took big action at the windows vs. the choice and could go better here.
Race 9
(9) THE MURMURING PAN shoots for four straight here and looks good to do it but will be a very short price. (6) TYMAL FIREITUP raced well last time when moving to the big track and looks like one of few threats to the choice. (1) DEISIS DREAM has a good in-the-money record and closed well from far back for third last time. He should get a share.
Race 10
(6) ROCK ME AMASTREOS may be able to lead this weak conditioned field throughout the mile. (7) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT fits here and figures highly, but, is often too far back to reach up late. (8) WARAWEE PHEONIX can contend if his driver pushes early for position but it's hard to say if that will happen for sure.
Race 11
(7) ARAZI won easily in a new life's mark last time and will be tough here if he gets even a slight breather. (1) THE ROCK has found this conditioned claimer class to his liking and is a top contender here. (4) MYHONEYTELLSALL has some sneaky good form and can be close here at the wire if moved earlier. (8) R U MACHIN ME faced a very tough winner twice in a row that has since won again. He could better this placing. (5) JIMMY BE GOOD looks as good as any for a minor slot.
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF HARNESS
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
20-CENT PICK 5: 1,3,5/1,3,7/2,6,7/1,4,8/2,5,10 = $48.60
EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,8/2,5,10/2,6,9/1,3 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 2,8/6,9/6,7,8/1,4,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 31 - 98 / 162.70 BEST BETS: 3 - 8 / $11.70
SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 9 / 30.30
Best Bet: BIG BANG BOOM (8th)
Spot Play: RANDOM LIGHTNING (5th)
Race 1
(1) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE has really improved in claimers and shown he can both start and finish quickly; call to repeat. (3) SURF REPORT was narrowly beaten by the choice last time and should be prominent throughout here. (5) PIER HO TEMPTATION is another that was in the photo with the two above. He's another contender in a race with many.
Race 2
(7) MEADOW SEELSTER led until late last week now gets back to a 7-day schedule and should be tighter for this. (1) SHEGUINDAH sat in the choice's pocket and trotted by late. She's the one to beat. (3) LMC MARSHMELLOW faces easier here and is one to use on pick 5 tickets.
Race 3
(2) CHESTNUT SCHOFIELD is the best closer in a race that could set up for one and he never gets bet. He could take this at a big price. (6) NOFEAR BLUE CHIP was racing well up to his last start when he broke early in the OSS Superfinals. He's another to consider that has a good late kick. (7) V FOR VICTORY was forced to trot faster than ever before early last time in an OSS Gold event and that effort took its toll late. He should rebound here with a better effort.
Race 4
(8) UFDRAGONS ROCKET has raced well out of town in the top class in his last two and rates highly here. (1) MACH OF BALLYKEEL left hard then sat in behind some solid splits and came out late for his first win of the season. A repeat is very possible. (4) ALWAYS THERE recorded by far the quickest final 1/4 in his last start which makes him dangerous here.
Race 5
(10) RANDOM LIGHTNING made a menacing move in the stretch last week but was picked off by two others that had her cover. She will be a good price here and can do if placed somewhere in the top six early. (5) BUZZ failed as the chalk last week but could rebound here if driven slightly less aggressively. (2) MY MY HEY HEY is competitive when his gait issues don't take him out of contention; tough call.
Race 6
(2) BIG PETES STYLE is 1 for 1 lifetime facing nine others that are a combined 2 for 101. It wouldn't be a shocker to see him repeat here moving to the big circuit. (9) FULL TIME GIG has been getting closer but his 0-16 record doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. (6) MAJOR DAN got outsprinted late last time but could do some damage on the front end here if left alone winging it.
Race 7
(3) KAMIKAZE LINDY was closing best last time but the winner was long gone already. That race followed a 5-week break and now he comes back much quicker; top call. (1) LMC MASS OAK was live last time both early and late. He's a major player here. (5) GRONK looks good on paper, but is 1 for 16 because he breaks so often. He's useable in the pick 4 but not worth a short price in the win pool.
Race 8
(8) BIG BANG BOOM was a monster debut winner and should be able to double up here but will be odds-on for sure. (2) DAYLIGHT RUSH closed belatedly in a bit of a dull effort but is a good bet to complete this exacta. (4) CARIBOU BEACH took big action at the windows vs. the choice and could go better here.
Race 9
(9) THE MURMURING PAN shoots for four straight here and looks good to do it but will be a very short price. (6) TYMAL FIREITUP raced well last time when moving to the big track and looks like one of few threats to the choice. (1) DEISIS DREAM has a good in-the-money record and closed well from far back for third last time. He should get a share.
Race 10
(6) ROCK ME AMASTREOS may be able to lead this weak conditioned field throughout the mile. (7) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT fits here and figures highly, but, is often too far back to reach up late. (8) WARAWEE PHEONIX can contend if his driver pushes early for position but it's hard to say if that will happen for sure.
Race 11
(7) ARAZI won easily in a new life's mark last time and will be tough here if he gets even a slight breather. (1) THE ROCK has found this conditioned claimer class to his liking and is a top contender here. (4) MYHONEYTELLSALL has some sneaky good form and can be close here at the wire if moved earlier. (8) R U MACHIN ME faced a very tough winner twice in a row that has since won again. He could better this placing. (5) JIMMY BE GOOD looks as good as any for a minor slot.
