Monday 10/17/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jets, Cards clash on MNF

Week 6 MNF Betting Preview

New York Jets (1-4 SU) vs. Arizona Cardinals (2-3 SU)

Odds: Arizona -7.5, Total set at 46.5

The final game of Week 6 action in the NFL is an AFC/NFC inter-conference game between two slumping teams that really believed their records would be much better than they currently are.

There aren't many bettors that would have expected both of these teams to be below .500 by the time this MNF game arrived, but that's the scenario the Jets and Cardinals find themselves in and it makes it a little tougher to handicap.

Of the two sides involved here, it's not that hard to argue the idea that it's actually been Arizona who's been the more disappointing team this year as they were expected to seriously contend for a title this year. That may still happen, but a 2-3 SU start wasn't clearly not the blueprint for that as Bruce Arians' squad is looking to right the ship soon.

Arizona has plenty of depth and talent on their roster to get back to the NFC Championship or beyond, they've just got to find ways to avoid these “clunker” losses they've been having, especially at home.

The Cardinals are just 1-2 SU in their own building this year and those two losses came as favorites of -9 or higher. Until those issues get sorted out, it makes it tough to consider laying more than a TD with Arizona here.

But grabbing the points with the Jets in this spot isn't all that attractive either as they've lost three in a row to fall to 1-4 SU. A tough early schedule is definitely part of New York's early season struggles as they've already played four playoff teams from a year ago, but nothing is going to get that much easier for the Jets the rest of the way.

If New York doesn't want to end up punting on the 2016 season, they've got to turn this around fast, but are you really ready to trust them to do so? QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a turnover machine so far this season and aside from the 37 points they put up on TNF in Week 2, this Jets offense hasn't really looked great at all.

When you get these matchups between two teams that bettors have no faith in, it's not uncommon to see a lot of people look towards a low-scoring affair. That's precisely the case this week as early betting percentages show that nearly 80% of the bets on this total have been on the low side of things, yet the number hasn't moved at all.

If you've been betting seriously for long enough, you'll understand that's a pretty big warning sign for those looking to come in on the 'under' now. It's understandable why so many have been quick to print an 'under' ticket, but I actually believe we see some points in this one as these two untrustworthy teams get involved in a back-and-forth affair.

For one, it's never bad to be in a distinct minority with your selection like the 20% or so that are currently on the 'over,' but considering all the turnovers we've seen from these two teams in the past, the chances for short fields and points to pile up in a hurry is better than average here.

Arizona did get their offense back on track in the dying minutes of the 2nd quarter last week, and if you are of the mind that the Cardinals can get things rolling this week at home, their best performance of the year came here in a 40-7 win over Tampa when everyone was questioning them after the loss to New England sans Tom Brady.

The Jets have allowed 30+ in two of their three road games this year and with Carson Palmer back under center, Arizona could very well reach that number.

New York's point totals of 13, 17, and 3, don't exude confidence for an 'over' play here, but moving the ball isn't a big concern for the Jets right now. New York has moved the ball rather well the last few weeks, but it's been their inability to protect the ball and finish drives that have killed them.

Turnovers are quite random and do regress back to the norm, so don't expect the Jets propensity to turn it over to last forever. Fitzpatrick has been loose with the ball, but he's a wily veteran that's been down this road before. Facing an Arizona defense isn't the best matchup to get a struggling offense rolling, but if that does happen, the confidence New York will get from a performance like that will be huge. New York is also 7-1 O/U after their last eight defeats.

So while the majority of NFL bettors are looking at the 'under' in the Week 6 finale, I've got no problem going the other way as these AFC/NFC games start to sail over the number at a much better pace as they did back in 2014 when they were one of the better bets on the board.

Best Bet: Take Over 46.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jets, Cards clash on MNF

Week 6 MNF Betting Preview

New York Jets (1-4 SU) vs. Arizona Cardinals (2-3 SU)

Odds: Arizona -7.5, Total set at 46.5

The final game of Week 6 action in the NFL is an AFC/NFC inter-conference game between two slumping teams that really believed their records would be much better than they currently are.

There aren't many bettors that would have expected both of these teams to be below .500 by the time this MNF game arrived, but that's the scenario the Jets and Cardinals find themselves in and it makes it a little tougher to handicap.

Of the two sides involved here, it's not that hard to argue the idea that it's actually been Arizona who's been the more disappointing team this year as they were expected to seriously contend for a title this year. That may still happen, but a 2-3 SU start wasn't clearly not the blueprint for that as Bruce Arians' squad is looking to right the ship soon.

Arizona has plenty of depth and talent on their roster to get back to the NFC Championship or beyond, they've just got to find ways to avoid these “clunker” losses they've been having, especially at home.

The Cardinals are just 1-2 SU in their own building this year and those two losses came as favorites of -9 or higher. Until those issues get sorted out, it makes it tough to consider laying more than a TD with Arizona here.

But grabbing the points with the Jets in this spot isn't all that attractive either as they've lost three in a row to fall to 1-4 SU. A tough early schedule is definitely part of New York's early season struggles as they've already played four playoff teams from a year ago, but nothing is going to get that much easier for the Jets the rest of the way.

If New York doesn't want to end up punting on the 2016 season, they've got to turn this around fast, but are you really ready to trust them to do so? QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a turnover machine so far this season and aside from the 37 points they put up on TNF in Week 2, this Jets offense hasn't really looked great at all.

When you get these matchups between two teams that bettors have no faith in, it's not uncommon to see a lot of people look towards a low-scoring affair. That's precisely the case this week as early betting percentages show that nearly 80% of the bets on this total have been on the low side of things, yet the number hasn't moved at all.

If you've been betting seriously for long enough, you'll understand that's a pretty big warning sign for those looking to come in on the 'under' now. It's understandable why so many have been quick to print an 'under' ticket, but I actually believe we see some points in this one as these two untrustworthy teams get involved in a back-and-forth affair.

For one, it's never bad to be in a distinct minority with your selection like the 20% or so that are currently on the 'over,' but considering all the turnovers we've seen from these two teams in the past, the chances for short fields and points to pile up in a hurry is better than average here.

Arizona did get their offense back on track in the dying minutes of the 2nd quarter last week, and if you are of the mind that the Cardinals can get things rolling this week at home, their best performance of the year came here in a 40-7 win over Tampa when everyone was questioning them after the loss to New England sans Tom Brady.

The Jets have allowed 30+ in two of their three road games this year and with Carson Palmer back under center, Arizona could very well reach that number.

New York's point totals of 13, 17, and 3, don't exude confidence for an 'over' play here, but moving the ball isn't a big concern for the Jets right now. New York has moved the ball rather well the last few weeks, but it's been their inability to protect the ball and finish drives that have killed them.

Turnovers are quite random and do regress back to the norm, so don't expect the Jets propensity to turn it over to last forever. Fitzpatrick has been loose with the ball, but he's a wily veteran that's been down this road before. Facing an Arizona defense isn't the best matchup to get a struggling offense rolling, but if that does happen, the confidence New York will get from a performance like that will be huge. New York is also 7-1 O/U after their last eight defeats.

So while the majority of NFL bettors are looking at the 'under' in the Week 6 finale, I've got no problem going the other way as these AFC/NFC games start to sail over the number at a much better pace as they did back in 2014 when they were one of the better bets on the board.

Best Bet: Take Over 46.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 6 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

Now that most teams are going to be over one-third of the way through their schedules, it’s acceptable to write a few off if they lose this week. San Diego was headed for obscurity, but salvaged its wasteful season with an upset of Denver thanks to its best defensive performance yet. It’s been a fairly strange season thus far, the quality of play has often been grisly and early injuries have definitely played a factor. Don’t expect much to change this weekend. Here’s what you need to know before wagering on Week 6:

Monday, Oct. 17

N.Y. Jets at Arizona: The Cardinals rose from the ashes last Thursday night by winning in San Francisco and can now move back to .500 if they hold serve at home. Of course, the Jets are clinging to their own realistic postseason aspirations here, having started 1-4. It doesn’t help their cause that QB Carson Palmer has made it through concussion protocol and G Mike Iupati looks to be coming around after having his walking boot removed. New York hasn’t been as fortunate this week. Eric Decker (rotator cuff) officially went on IR, center Nick Mangold (knee), LB David Harris and DB Darrelle Revis (hamstrings) haven’t inspired confidence that they’ll be in the mix and the defense appeared rattled by another game where they were dominated. About the only thing that does favor the visitors on Monday night is history, since the Jets haven’t lost to the Cardinals since 1975. They’ve never lost in Arizona, although this will be their first trip into Glendale. New York has won six straight in the series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MNF - Jets at Cardinals
By Kevin Rogers

The Week 6 card closes out in Arizona with an interconference matchup between the Jets and Cardinals. Arizona is looking for a return to the .500 mark following a slow start to the season, while New York has stumbled out of the gate to a disappointing 1-4 start after nearly making the playoffs last season. Can the Cardinals improve on an 0-2 mark against AFC opponents or will the Jets finally get on track?

LAST WEEK

The Cardinals picked up some much needed rest following a 33-21 victory at San Francisco last Thursday night. Arizona cashed as 3 ½-point road favorites in spite of not scoring its first point until the final two minutes of the first half. The Cardinals turned to backup quarterback Drew Stanton to start in place of the injured Carson Palmer, as Stanton hooked up with Larry Fitzgerald for a pair of touchdown connections. Arizona running back David Johnson tore up the San Francisco defense for 157 yards and two scores on the ground, while the Cards took advantage of three 49ers’ turnovers. The Cardinals have scored a combined 73 points in two wins, while putting up 56 points in its three losses.

The Jets turned the ball over 11 times in losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks, but didn’t commit a turnover last week at Pittsburgh. However, New York fell short at Heinz Field in a 31-13 drubbing as 10-point underdogs as the Steelers outscored the Jets, 17-0 in the second half. Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t put up bad numbers following nine interceptions in the previous two games as the Jets’ quarterback threw for 255 yards and a touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall. Since scoring 37 points at Buffalo in Week 2, New York has amassed 33 points in the past three losses.

INTERCONFERENCE STRUGGLES

Last season, the Cardinals won three of four games against AFC foes, but compiled a 1-3 ATS mark. Arizona has already lost two interconference contests in 2016, falling to New England and Buffalo. The Cardinals own a dreadful 1-5 ATS record under Bruce Arians as a home favorite against AFC opponents since 2013. The Jets went 3-1 last season against the NFC, but lost their first interconference affair this season to Seattle, 27-17 in Week 4.

PREVIOUS MEETING

There weren’t many highlights when these teams last hooked up at Met Life Stadium in 2012 as the Jets held off the Cardinals, 7-6. To show you how much has changed since then, the Cardinals started Ryan Lindley at quarterback, while Mark Sanchez started for New York and was intercepted three times. The lone touchdown came on the famous connection of Greg McElroy to Jeff Cumberland in the fourth quarter, but Arizona cashed as six-point road underdogs. The Jets are visiting University of Phoenix Stadium for the first time ever, while New York is heading to the desert for the first time since 2004 when New York topped Arizona, 13-3 at Sun Devil Stadium.

CARSON CITY

After missing the San Francisco victory with a concussion suffered in a Week 4 loss to Los Angeles, Carson Palmer is expected to start on Monday night for Arizona. The Cardinals’ veteran quarterback has nearly matched his yardage output through four games from last season when Palmer threw for 1,155 yards in the first four contests of 2015. Palmer is currently at 1,150 yards through four games this season, but the former top pick tossed 10 touchdowns during Arizona’s 4-0 start last season as opposed to six touchdowns this season.

LOW FLYERS

Since starting last season with a 5-1 ATS record, the Jets have sunk to a dreadful 4-9-2 ATS mark in the past 15 contests. New York has been listed as an underdog in all three road games this season, compiling a 1-2 SU/ATS mark, as the Jets are 4-2 ATS under Todd Bowles when receiving points since the start of 2015.

NOT SO HOT

The Cardinals have struggled in the role of a home favorite since 2015, putting together a 4-8 ATS mark in the last 12 games at University of Phoenix Stadium. Arizona has already lost outright to New England and Los Angeles in the favorite role, while blowing out Tampa Bay for its only home cover in Week 2.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Joe Nelson says the Jets have been plagued by a difficult slate through the first five weeks, “There is reason to believe the Jets have a chance to climb back into the AFC picture as they have by most measures played the toughest schedule in the league, facing teams that are a combined 14-9 while taking on four squads that made the playoffs last season. A league worst -9 turnover margin has also been a big factor in the results with three of the five games this season also being on the road.”

On the Cardinals’ side, Nelson breaks down Arizona’s inconsistency on the offensive end, “Palmer is expected to return this week, but the Cardinals haven’t matched last season’s production, currently 22nd in the NFL in yards per play on offense this season, two spots below the Jets. Arizona still owns the fourth best yards per play defense in the NFL at this point in the season, but they have faced a fairly weak schedule at this point in the season with the two wins coming over the Buccaneers and 49ers.”

PROPS -

New York

B. Marshall - Over 100 Receiving Yards 3/2
B. Marshall - Record 7 or More Receptions 6/5
B. Marshall - Score a TD and Jets Win Game 5/1

M. Forte - Over 100 Rushing Yards 4/1
M. Forte - Over 50 Receiving Yards 2/1

R. Fitzpatrick - Attempts 45 or More Passes 5/2
R. Fitzpatrick - Over 2.5 Interceptions Thrown 4/1
R. Fitzpatrick - Over 275 Passing Yards 2/1

Arizona

C. Palmer - Attempts 45 or More Passes 9/4
C. Palmer - Over 1.5 Interceptions Thrown 7/4
C. Palmer - Over 350 Passing Yards 5/2
C. Palmer - Throws 30 or More Pass Completions 4/1

D. Johnson - Over 100 Rushing Yards 9/4
D. Johnson - 20 or More Rushing Attempts 3/2

L. Fitzgerald - Over 100 Receiving Yards 2/1
L. Fitzgerald - Record 8 or More Receptions 3/2

FUTURE ODDS

Looking ahead to Week 7, the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened up the Jets as a pick-em at home against the Ravens, while the Cardinals are listed as a 1 ½-point home favorite in a Sunday night showdown with the Seahawks.

The Jets opened the season at 30/1 to win Super Bowl LI, but that number has dropped to 300/1 following their dreadful start. Arizona hasn’t fallen that far from 10/1 odds at the Westgate before the season to win the franchise’s first Super Bowl, as the Cardinals are currently at 16/1 in spite of sitting below the .500 mark.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Jets (1-4) at Cardinals (2-3)

Date: October 17, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- When Bruce Arians first met Todd Bowles, he immediately knew his young safety with the Temple Owls would make a great coach one day.

"He'd be calling out what play you're getting ready to run," the Cardinals head coach said. "He just had a great feel for the game as a safety. ... Smart, tough. Just like he is as a coach."

Thirty-three years later, Arians and Bowles will square off as NFL head coaches for the first time when Arians' Cardinals (2-3) meet Bowles and the New York Jets (1-4) on Monday night at University of Phoenix Stadium. Neither team is off to a very good start, which will make their friendly rivalry play second fiddle to the game itself.

Not that it won't be on both coaches' mind, of course.

"Personally, with a guy that almost taught me half of my football life, you try not to let him down," Bowles said. "In order to not let him down, you've got to win the game. It's gratifying to see him get his due, and I try to work hard as best I can not to make him out to be a liar for giving me an opportunity and then giving me this opportunity.

"But, he's like my uncle, my big brother. He taught me so much in life and in football. Words can't describe how I feel about him."

Both coaches need a win Monday in the worst of ways.

Arians and the Cardinals can't afford a third loss at home this early into the season, one that most observers pegged Arizona as a legitimate Super Bowl contender following a 13-3 record a year ago. Bowles and the Jets, meanwhile, might not recover if they lose their fourth consecutive game to fall to 1-5.

Things have already gone in the Cardinals' favor as Arizona welcomed the return of quarterback Carson Palmer back to practice this week after he missed last Thursday night's win at the 49ers because of a concussion.

"Exciting. It was a lot of different emotions, but exciting," Palmer said of watching the game from his couch. "Obviously, you're bummed because you're not playing, but to see our defense play that way, to see us run the ball that way, to see Drew (Stanton) come in and have not gotten any reps and play the way he did, Fitz (Larry Fitzgerald) do what he did, and the offensive line. It was just great to see us go on the road in a tough place to play and get a division game and get on a winning track."

The Jets got some bad news this week when it was learned star receiver Eric Decker has been lost for the season. He was placed on injured reserve and was scheduled to undergo shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff. Decker's absence puts that much more pressure on veteran wideout Brandon Marshall and, to a lesser extent, the Jets' collection of young receivers.

"Eric's a great football player," quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick said. "He was very productive for us last year. He was going to be productive again for us this year, so we've got to have other guys step up now. There is nobody that's really going to be able to replace him, because he was and is such a special player, but we've got to supplement and get different guys going and play to their strengths, the other guys that we have stepping up.

"It's a tough blow for us to lose a player like Eric, but it happens to everybody, and again, nobody is going to feel sorry for us that he's not going to be out there. We've just got to push through and have other guys step up."

New York's defense has been giving up big plays at an alarming rate and it could get even worse against the Cardinals, especially if cornerback Darrelle Revis can't play or is limited because of a nagging hamstring injury. Overall, the Jets rank last in average yards per pass (9.2) and are tied for second-to-last in passing yards per game (302).

"I don't know if Revis is going to play or not, but there's some experience," said Palmer, who has thrown six touchdowns against five interceptions. "There are some guys that have played a lot of football back there. It's on Monday night. They're reeling for a win. We know they're coming in here, expecting to win and we're going to get their best shot."

The Jets need a clean game from Fitzpatrick, an Arizona native that played high school football at Gilbert Highlands. He's been intercepted a league-high 10 times, which included six picks during a recent loss to the Chiefs.

"It starts with me. I need to play better," Fitzpatrick said. "You're not going to be a very good offense if your quarterback isn't playing well, so I think that's the easiest solution. ... I've been frustrated with my play. I haven't played up to my abilities and what I expect out of myself, so I think as I play better, the offense is going to become more explosive and more consistent."

The Cardinals have plenty of firepower in second-year running back David Johnson, who was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week after rushing for a single-season NFL-high 157 yards and running for two touchdowns in the win over San Francisco. With veteran Chris Johnson on injured reserve because of a groin injury, David Johnson figures to get more touches than even previously expected.

When Bowles looks at Johnson, who ranks third in the league in rushing with 457 yards and first in scrimmage yards with 695 yards, he sees a younger version of his own star running back, Matt Forte.

"Obviously Matt's older. David's explosive now," Bowles said. "He can do a lot of things that Matt does. He has great feet and good patience in the hole. He can juke you when he has to and he can run you over when he has to. He has outstanding hands, so he has the full trifecta."

The Cardinals will be playing without both of their starting guards because of ankle injuries as right guard Evan Mathis is on IR and Mike Iupati is expected to miss at least one to two more weeks. Both John Wetzel and Earl Watford filled in adequately last week, Arians said, but the competition gets a lot tougher this week against the Jets' ferocious defensive line.

"Yeah, they've got their hands full," Arians said. "They were uncovered for most of the game in San Francisco, blocking linebackers. They're going to have big, strong dudes on top of them this game."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MNF - Jets at Cardinals
By Kevin Rogers

The Week 6 card closes out in Arizona with an interconference matchup between the Jets and Cardinals. Arizona is looking for a return to the .500 mark following a slow start to the season, while New York has stumbled out of the gate to a disappointing 1-4 start after nearly making the playoffs last season. Can the Cardinals improve on an 0-2 mark against AFC opponents or will the Jets finally get on track?

LAST WEEK

The Cardinals picked up some much needed rest following a 33-21 victory at San Francisco last Thursday night. Arizona cashed as 3 ½-point road favorites in spite of not scoring its first point until the final two minutes of the first half. The Cardinals turned to backup quarterback Drew Stanton to start in place of the injured Carson Palmer, as Stanton hooked up with Larry Fitzgerald for a pair of touchdown connections. Arizona running back David Johnson tore up the San Francisco defense for 157 yards and two scores on the ground, while the Cards took advantage of three 49ers’ turnovers. The Cardinals have scored a combined 73 points in two wins, while putting up 56 points in its three losses.

The Jets turned the ball over 11 times in losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks, but didn’t commit a turnover last week at Pittsburgh. However, New York fell short at Heinz Field in a 31-13 drubbing as 10-point underdogs as the Steelers outscored the Jets, 17-0 in the second half. Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t put up bad numbers following nine interceptions in the previous two games as the Jets’ quarterback threw for 255 yards and a touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall. Since scoring 37 points at Buffalo in Week 2, New York has amassed 33 points in the past three losses.

INTERCONFERENCE STRUGGLES

Last season, the Cardinals won three of four games against AFC foes, but compiled a 1-3 ATS mark. Arizona has already lost two interconference contests in 2016, falling to New England and Buffalo. The Cardinals own a dreadful 1-5 ATS record under Bruce Arians as a home favorite against AFC opponents since 2013. The Jets went 3-1 last season against the NFC, but lost their first interconference affair this season to Seattle, 27-17 in Week 4.

PREVIOUS MEETING

There weren’t many highlights when these teams last hooked up at Met Life Stadium in 2012 as the Jets held off the Cardinals, 7-6. To show you how much has changed since then, the Cardinals started Ryan Lindley at quarterback, while Mark Sanchez started for New York and was intercepted three times. The lone touchdown came on the famous connection of Greg McElroy to Jeff Cumberland in the fourth quarter, but Arizona cashed as six-point road underdogs. The Jets are visiting University of Phoenix Stadium for the first time ever, while New York is heading to the desert for the first time since 2004 when New York topped Arizona, 13-3 at Sun Devil Stadium.

CARSON CITY

After missing the San Francisco victory with a concussion suffered in a Week 4 loss to Los Angeles, Carson Palmer is expected to start on Monday night for Arizona. The Cardinals’ veteran quarterback has nearly matched his yardage output through four games from last season when Palmer threw for 1,155 yards in the first four contests of 2015. Palmer is currently at 1,150 yards through four games this season, but the former top pick tossed 10 touchdowns during Arizona’s 4-0 start last season as opposed to six touchdowns this season.

LOW FLYERS

Since starting last season with a 5-1 ATS record, the Jets have sunk to a dreadful 4-9-2 ATS mark in the past 15 contests. New York has been listed as an underdog in all three road games this season, compiling a 1-2 SU/ATS mark, as the Jets are 4-2 ATS under Todd Bowles when receiving points since the start of 2015.

NOT SO HOT

The Cardinals have struggled in the role of a home favorite since 2015, putting together a 4-8 ATS mark in the last 12 games at University of Phoenix Stadium. Arizona has already lost outright to New England and Los Angeles in the favorite role, while blowing out Tampa Bay for its only home cover in Week 2.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Joe Nelson says the Jets have been plagued by a difficult slate through the first five weeks, “There is reason to believe the Jets have a chance to climb back into the AFC picture as they have by most measures played the toughest schedule in the league, facing teams that are a combined 14-9 while taking on four squads that made the playoffs last season. A league worst -9 turnover margin has also been a big factor in the results with three of the five games this season also being on the road.”

On the Cardinals’ side, Nelson breaks down Arizona’s inconsistency on the offensive end, “Palmer is expected to return this week, but the Cardinals haven’t matched last season’s production, currently 22nd in the NFL in yards per play on offense this season, two spots below the Jets. Arizona still owns the fourth best yards per play defense in the NFL at this point in the season, but they have faced a fairly weak schedule at this point in the season with the two wins coming over the Buccaneers and 49ers.”

PROPS -

New York

B. Marshall - Over 100 Receiving Yards 3/2
B. Marshall - Record 7 or More Receptions 6/5
B. Marshall - Score a TD and Jets Win Game 5/1

M. Forte - Over 100 Rushing Yards 4/1
M. Forte - Over 50 Receiving Yards 2/1

R. Fitzpatrick - Attempts 45 or More Passes 5/2
R. Fitzpatrick - Over 2.5 Interceptions Thrown 4/1
R. Fitzpatrick - Over 275 Passing Yards 2/1

Arizona

C. Palmer - Attempts 45 or More Passes 9/4
C. Palmer - Over 1.5 Interceptions Thrown 7/4
C. Palmer - Over 350 Passing Yards 5/2
C. Palmer - Throws 30 or More Pass Completions 4/1

D. Johnson - Over 100 Rushing Yards 9/4
D. Johnson - 20 or More Rushing Attempts 3/2

L. Fitzgerald - Over 100 Receiving Yards 2/1
L. Fitzgerald - Record 8 or More Receptions 3/2

FUTURE ODDS

Looking ahead to Week 7, the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened up the Jets as a pick-em at home against the Ravens, while the Cardinals are listed as a 1 ½-point home favorite in a Sunday night showdown with the Seahawks.

The Jets opened the season at 30/1 to win Super Bowl LI, but that number has dropped to 300/1 following their dreadful start. Arizona hasn’t fallen that far from 10/1 odds at the Westgate before the season to win the franchise’s first Super Bowl, as the Cardinals are currently at 16/1 in spite of sitting below the .500 mark.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Monday 10/17 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 2,4,6/5,6/2,5,6/4,5,8,10/5 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 4,5,8,10/5/1,7,9/2,5 = $24

LATE PICK 4: 2,5/3,5,8/4,5/3,4,6 = $36

MEET STATS: 423 - 1248 / $2198.60 BEST BETS: 69 - 114 / $215.70

SPOT PLAYS: 26 - 114 / $171.60

Best Bet: JIMMY BE GOOD (5th)

Spot Play: VICTORIA SEMALU (9th)


Race 1

(6) DAENERYS HANOVER was out a long way first-up last week and still almost survived the trip. She can get a better journey here leaving with her nose on the gate. (4) SHEER TALENT chased the choice down despite going wider than she needed to turning for home using. (2) OUT OF SIGHT faces easier here, but she may be over bet relative to her chances of winning. (1) OK JEWEL scratched Thursday to go in this spot. She can grab a smaller share.

Race 2

(6) SPORTY GUSSIE had some late pace after getting shuffled last week. That was her best race to date. I expect Henry to roll her early here. (5) SOUTHWIND JINGA is another that was shuffled out of contention that should be live here. (2) MANHATTAN PLAY should be a pace factor at a minimum here. (1) TODAYS SPORTS should get a good trip near the front here and stick around for a piece.

Race 3

In a race where the entrants are a combined 0-137, (2) GRACE DUHARAS looks best, but would you take a short price in anything in here? (6) HILARIOUS HERO looks next best with his good tactical speed, but he's already had plenty of chances. (5) VASCO BI re-qualified okay and he's worth a look for the exotics here having failed the least number of times. (3) IM WANTED could share if he can repeat his qualifier.

Race 4

(5) ALWAYS ROCK N ROLL drops back to face his own age group here after testing much more experienced foes last time. He should be right there vs. these. (8) LYONS WILLIAM had a decent debut in a quick mile. He can go forward here off that effort. (4) DEEPFAVE HANOVER is worth a look shipping west and going for Hall of Fame trainer McIntosh in his Mohawk debut. (10) DREAM OF LUCK likely has more to offer than what was shown in his debut but the 10-hole here will be tough to overcome.

Race 5

(5) JIMMY BE GOOD has reeled off two straight powerful first-over wins and he'll be hard to hold off here, too. (7) WALTZKING HANOVER got an easy trip up front and converted in his first start off the claim. This will likely be a tougher assignment, but he's a contender. (9) LISVINNIE started up too late last time, but he kept coming. He can take a slice here. (6) YORK SEELSTER will likely pepper the pace early, but he needs to be able to rate if he is going to last.

Race 6

(1) DANCER HALL looked like a good one last time, rolling by his foes as he pleased. He faces older this time, but it may not matter. (9) REAL LUCKY DAY takes a big class drop here, but he has also missed a month, and he too faces elders. He will likely be an underlay on the board. (7) WINDSONGMUSCLELADY raced well last time, picking up positions while the late pace accelerated; consider. (3) MISSEDYADAY could sneak into the exotics at a big price leaving from a better post.

Race 7

(5) RAYLAN GIVENS has raced better out of Menary's barn, now he comes up tagged here. A win-and-get-claimed scenario seems likely. (2) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE races tougher leaving from inner posts. He looks like a Pick 4 must-use here. (9) HIGHLAND TARTAN should be a pace threat, but notice he finishes third about 1/3 of the time. (7) DIGGIN IN raced a bit better last time now he drops again. He is another to consider and he should offer a square price.

Race 8

(3) TAURUS DU PARC set a quick 1/2 last week then held his foes at bay late. These don't appear to be any tougher; call to repeat. (5) MOONBEAM HALL was a strong winner the last time he raced in this class four starts back; using. (8) INCREADABLE FRANK - second to the choice last week - figures to make the ticket again here. (4) GIRL DRAMA is a good one to use in Tri and Super bets, but she rarely wins.

Race 9

(5) VICTORIA SEMALU and (4) KISS ME OR NOT stand a very good chance of racing 1-2 most of the way here with their good gate speed and leaving from beneficial posts. I'll give the former the nod based on recency. (2) EVAS GIRL could sit a good following trip herself and pounce late; using. (7) DOCS DIVA can rally late for a slice here.

Race 10

(6) WINDSONG LEO was a very good local three-year-old last year who looks like he is coming back around now. I'll give him top call here in a spot that he should like. (4) DALTON DID IT was out too long last week but still almost survived it. A better trip puts him right there vs. these. (3) SPINFINITI had a good race over this track; using. (2) UF BETTORS HANOVER is better racing as a closer which is likely here. (7) COLORADO BUCK has a good record. He can share here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Monday Night Football betting preview: Jets at Cardinals

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 46)

Carson Palmer is poised to return to the lineup when the Arizona Cardinals host the skidding New York Jets on Monday Night Football. After sitting out last week, Palmer has been cleared from the league's concussion protocol in time to face the Jets, who are mired in a three-game skid in which all the losses have come by double digits.

Drew Stanton stepped in for Palmer at San Francisco on Oct. 6 and guided Arizona to a 33-21 victory that halted a two-game losing streak. The Cardinals (2-3) have already lost as many games as last season, when they won posted 13 victories and won the NFC West title before losing to Carolina in the conference title game. Jets coach Todd Bowles, who went 10-6 in his first campaign with New York, knows what he's up against in Arizona, serving under Bruce Arians as the team's defensive coordinator in 2013-14. “With a guy who taught me almost half my football life, you try not to let him down, and in order not to let him down, I have to win the game,” Bowles said jokingly of facing Arians.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened as 7.5-point home favorites and the line hasn't moved all week. The total hit the betting board at 46, was bumped up slightly to 46.5, and returned to the opening number on Saturday afternoon.

INJURIES:

Jets - WR J. Marshall (Prob Mon, shoulder), RB M. Forte (Prob Mon, knee), WR B. Marshall (Prob Mon, knee), G B. Winters (Prob Mon, concussion), TE A. Seferian-Jenkins (Ques Mon, ankle), CB D. Roberts (Ques Mon, shoulder), CB D. Revis (Ques Mon, hamstring), TE B. Bowman (Ques Mon, knee), C N. Mangold (Ques Mon, knee), DE S. Richardson (Ques Mon, knee), LB D. Harris (Doub Mon, hamstring), QB B. Petty (Out Indefinitely, shoulder), WR E. Decker (I-R, shoulder), DE L. Thomas (I-R, shoulder), T B. Giacomini (Elig Week 7, back), RB R. Morris (I-R, shoulder), WR D. Smith (Elig Week 7, knee), DE J. Obioha (I-R, undisclosed).

Cardinals - LB K. Minter (Pron Mon, concussion), QB C. Palmer (Prob Mon, concussion), DT R. Nkemdiche (Ques Mon, ankle), TE D. Fells (Ques Mon, shoulder), DT E. Stinson (Ques Mon, toe), DT J. Mauro (Ques Mon, chest), G M. Iupati (Early Nov, ankle), G E. Mathis (I-R, ankle), S T. Branch (Elig Week 12, groin), RB C. Johnson (Elig Week 12, hernia), LB A. Fua (I-R, knee), TE T. Niklas (I-R, wrist), S D. Eskridge (I-R, arm), CB M. Jenkins (I-R, knee), CB E. Bouka).

ABOUT THE JETS (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U): New York has scored 33 points during the three-game losing streak and was blanked in the second half of last week's 31-13 loss at Pittsburgh, although quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick did not throw an interception after he was picked off nine times in the previous two games. Losing wide receiver Eric Decker, who had 12 touchdown receptions in 2015, to season-ending shoulder surgery is another blow to the passing attack. The Jets have not been helped by a suspect running game as Matt Forte rushed for 100 yards and three touchdowns in their lone win at Buffalo in Week 2, but has been held to 80 yards in the past two weeks. New York ranks No. 2 against the run (68.4 yards per game) but is getting gouged through the air (303.0 yards).

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Arians wants to see improvement from Palmer, who set career highs in all major categories and was in the conversation for league MVP for much of last season but is off to a slow start with six touchdowns and five interceptions through his four starts. “Just keep throwing it,” Arians said. “See if they can keep catching it and throw it a little farther on the deep balls.” The Cardinals do have the luxury of a standout running back in David Johnson, who rumbled for 157 yards and two touchdowns at San Francisco and set a franchise record by going over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the first five games. Arizona managed only 36 sacks last season, but is already halfway to that mark, led by linebacker Markus Golden with six.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Over is 7-1 in Jets last 8 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 home games.

CONSENESUS: 52 percent of picks are on the Jets to cover on the road while 53 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Monday 10/17 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 352 - 1039 / $1,906.60

BEST BETS: 46 - 86 / $152.80

Best Bet: IDEAL PRINCESS (1st)

Spot Play: ROLAND N ROCK (12th)


Race 1

(4) IDEAL PRINCESS ships in off a blowout score and lands in a very soft spot; clearly the one to beat in the opener. (5) RD BILLIE showed some speed in her local debut and she could show more tonight. (6) GALYNS GIFT hails from Burke, which merits a mention in this weak field.

Race 2

(1) BARBIE HANOVER is 2 for 2 in her young career and the well-bred 2-year-old can easily take another. (3) IDEAL PLAN had it all her own way and prevailed at odds-on last week upon arrival. (4) WITHOUT A DAUT gets Zeron and appears to be a logical contender.

Race 3

(2) STIRLING ESCORT failed to fire gapping cover off an accellerated pace last week; he can save ground from this spot and shake free with pace. (4) SANTIAGO STYLE ships from The Maritimes with some good-looking form but he's missed a month. (3) FAST N VICTORIOUS never wins but he raced better last out with Lasix added.

Race 4

(1) LIVE ODDS put in a pretty good effort from the eight hole last week in her local return and now she draws best. (5) SKINNY DIPPER has stakes experience and should go well with these. (4) ART ANGEL BABY arrives from Saratoga looking for four straight.

Race 5

(4) THE ROCK returns locally and the effort from two back at Pocono would be good enough to win this. (1) HICKORY ICON was overmatched last week; this is a better spot. (2) CHEYENNE JEFFREY is certainly good enough to be competitive from this inside post.

Race 6

(8) UPSIDE SURPRISE lands another poor post but she's flashed speed off the gate in the past and should be a good price in this suspect field. (7) SOUTHWIND TANGO arrives from the WEG circuit where she's sprinkled in a few good efforts; she may have been the one to beat with a better post. (1) TRACEY'S DESIRE rode live cover to victory last week and could repeat but won't offer much value.

Race 7

(3) CENOVIS brushed and crushed last out and faces nothing special here; only worry here is the missed time. (4) ALL DOWN THE LINE returns locally with some post relief. (1) STELLA'S PHELLA is 0 for 63 and counting but will probably pick up his usual share from this spot.

Race 8

(3) WINNING LINC was a solid multiple-move winner last week and can certainly repeat. (1) BOTTOM DEALS was outfinished by the top one and looms the main threat from the best post. (2) SOMELUCKSOMEROCK got all gummed up at the half last week and did have some finishing pace; he should save ground for a share here.

Race 9

(6) SOMEWHERE FANCY was a victim of the pace last out but still finished with plenty; worth another chance. (3) MACHTU N was jammed on the rail and finished mildly inside last week; he's proven at this level. (5) SECOND WIND N is another who fits with these and is overdue.

Race 10

(1) SHEZAREALDEAL is another Ross Croghan-trainee who's been a fringe stakes player but should find these to her liking. (2) FREEZE OUT has raced well in her last two from bad posts; big threat from this spot. (6) AMERICAN IVY hit the board in the NYSS Final for Team Miller.

Race 11

(4) WINNA WINNA was uninvolved upon arrival, which was his debut for the Burke barn; expecting more tonight. (1) BEACHES DE VIE draws well again and is in line for a live trip. (6) BLAISE MM is an interesting Canadian shipper for Casie Coleman; consider.

Race 12

(4) ROLAND N ROCK never really got involved last week in his local return but from this spot he can fire to the front. (6) STARSKY'S DREAM N looked like he had more to offer in his winning debut for the Milici barn. (1) HEEZ ORL BLACK N isn't what he used to be but he should race well from this spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Monday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Finger Lakes (5th) Mom's Chance, 4-1
(7th) Beautiful Success, 5-1


Meadowlands (2nd) Moonlit Friday, 6-1
(3rd) Supersecret, 4-1


Mountaineer (1st) Saffiano, 9-2
(8th) Shadow Tracer, 4-1


Parx Racing (2nd) Saint Finian, 6-1
(7th) Blake's Magic, 3-1


Thistledown (5th) Regal Ghost, 4-1
(7th) Will of the King, 10-1


Turf Paradise (2nd) Lockheart, 4-1
(3rd) Tom Kha, 9-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Indians (94-67) at Blue Jays (89-73)
By Larry Millson, The Sports Xchange

Bauer's healing finger will allow him to start Game 3 of ALCS

Game: 3
Venue: Rogers Centre
Date: October 17, 2016 8:08 PM EDT

TORONTO -- Pitching has dominated the first two games of the American League Championship Series.

The Cleveland Indians have pitched just a little better to lead the series 2-0 over Toronto and have outscored the Blue Jays 4-1.

"It's been the same story, good pitching on both sides," Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said on Sunday before his team worked out. "A little offense on both sides. They just got the two home runs, really. And then (Francisco) Lindor has had two big hits in both games. A lot of similarities, but they've been able to plate the runs. Not many of them, but more than we have."

There has been some mystery surrounding Cleveland's starter for Game 3 at Rogers Centre on Monday night.

Right-hander Trevor Bauer was scheduled to start Game 2 before he suffered a 10-stitch cut on the little finger of his right hand while working on his drone.

Josh Tomlin took his place and picked up the win Saturday when Cleveland took the game 2-1 and Bauer will now start Game 3.

"He's been getting treatment the whole time, almost like a pitcher with a blister," Cleveland manager Terry Francona said. "I really don't think it's going to affect his start one way or the other, whether he gets them out or he doesn't. I don't think this is going to be a big deal."

Bauer (0-0, 5.79 earned-run average in the postseason) will be opposing Toronto starter Marcus Stroman (0-0, 3.00 ERA).

"It's really a non-issue," Bauer said Sunday before Cleveland had its workout. "I've been able to throw normally and stuff."

Bauer will be making his second career postseason start. He allowed five hits, including two home runs, and three runs in 4 2/3 innings and did not factor in the decision of Game 1 in the American League Division Series, a three-game Cleveland sweep of the Boston Red Sox.

Bauer faced Toronto twice this season, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA. His win came when he pitched five innings in relief July 1 in the 19-inning, 2-1 victory at Rogers Centre that extended Cleveland's winning streak to a club-record 14 games.

He is 1-1 with a 6.27 ERA in four career games (three starts) against Toronto and is 1-1 with a 7.11 ERA in two career games at Rogers Centre.

Stroman will be making his second postseason start this year and the fifth of his career. He is 1-0 with a 3.91 in his first four career postseason starts.

He allowed four hits and two runs over six innings in a no-decision against the Baltimore Orioles in the wild-card game.

Stroman said he is not concerned about the struggles of the Blue Jays' hitters. "I think that's baseball, sometimes you go in spurts," he said. "Our offense is amazing, it's been amazing all year. I count on every single one of those guys to pick me up."

Stroman is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two starts against Cleveland this season with 15 strikeouts in 14 innings. He is 0-0 with a 3.52 ERA in three career games against Cleveland, including two starts.

The game will be at night with roof likely closed at Rogers Centre and that might help the hitting. The game Saturday was a 4 p.m. start outdoors at Progressive Field.

In discussing how teams have more time to prepare for each postseason series than in the regular season, Francona said, "But, I also think there's other things, too, like when you start at 4:10, you're giving the pitchers a huge advantage. And I understand it. I'm not complaining about it, just the way it is. But if the sun is shining it's difficult. I mean, really tough. So you're going five or six innings where, it doesn't mean you're not going to score, but you're at a disadvantage on offense."

Cleveland left-hander Andrew Miller needs no such advantage. He has been the pitching star of the first two games, striking out five in each of his first two appearances -- working 1 2-3 innings in Game 1 and two innings in Game 2.

"To be honest with you, if he's on there's not a lot you can do with him," Gibbons said. "He's proved that over the last few years. We saw him a little bit with the Yankees. He's got an overpowering fastball and he's got that incredible slider. If he's throwing strikes, there's a lot of swing and misses (on the), disappearing slider."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'ALCS'

Blue Jays getting close to being on the endangered spicies list after dropping the first two of this best-of-seven series look to storm back when the series shifts to Rogers Centre north of the border. Marcus Stroman toes the rubber for Gibbons' crew Monday evening carrying a 9-10 record to the hill with Toronto 15-18 over his 33 assignments. Stroman trades pitches with Trevor Bauer who is 12-8 on the year over 29 starts, 7 relief appearances.

A few telling baseball betting stats leap out in this one. The Jays' right-hander is saddled with a nine game winless streak, 3-6 team start record since August 21st. Also, Jays have not been a peg to hang your hat on handing the ball to Stroman after a team loss the previous effort. In the last seven such situations the Jays are 0-7. In contrast, as a team, Cleveland feeds off success handing the ball to their right-hander. Indians are an eye-opening 8-0 record with Bauer after a team win the previous game including 2-0 in an opposing park.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Indians (99-67) at Blue Jays (93-75)
By Kyle Compeau
Monday, October 17, 2016 at 8:08 pm (Rogers Centre)
T Bauer (12-8) (4.30) vs. M Stroman (9-10) (4.33)
The Line: Toronto Blue Jays -195 / Cleveland Indians +183 --- Over/Under: 9
TV: TBS

The Toronto Blue Jays return home to the Rogers Centre looking for a pivotal game three victory as they host the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS.

The Cleveland Indians have raced out to a commanding 2-0 series lead in the ALCS against the Toronto Blue Jays on the strength of their bullpen as they have kept the Blue Jays offense in check and if they can get at least one victory across the next three games in Toronto they can set up a potential series winner back at home. The Indians haven’t been hitting the cover off the ball either but they have gotten some big time clutch hits from Francisco Lindor and that has been the difference as Cleveland’s starting pitchers have stepped up, and of course Andrew Miller and Cody Allen have been phenomenal. However, with Trevor Bauer on the hill here nursing an injury and facing off against young flame thrower Marcus Stroman this looks like a tough spot for them as the Rogers Centre will be rocking.

The Blue Jays have looked like a completely different team from the ALDS to now as they haven’t been able to get the long ball going and that is such a huge part of their success and if they can’t find ways to generate runs and get guys on base in a hurry they are going to be sent packing in their own stadium. Toronto has gotten two very good starts from Marco Estrada and JA Happ but they each took a loss as a result of Toronto’s inability to score and with Stroman going the Jays know he is susceptible to giving up runs and that they will need to support him as often and as early as possible.

The Indians are 6-0 in their last six against the AL East, 4-0 in their last four road games, and 5-0 in their last five playoff games, while the Jays are 5-1 in their last six playoff home games, 5-1 in Stroman’s last six starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous outing, and 4-1 in his last five starts against a team with a winning record. The line here id chalk as the Jays have to win and while the value lies with Cleveland I am on the home side here who should feel more comfortable playing at home.

KYLE'S PICK
Toronto Blue Jays -195

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

ALCS

Monday’s game

Indians @ Blue Jays

Bauer hurt a finger on his pitching hand fixing a drone (???), was pushed back to here; he is 1-2, 6.75 in his last five starts— he allowed three runs in 4.2 IP in his first postseason start. Bauer is 1-0, 1.38 in two starts vs Toronto this year; he struck out 13 Jays in 8 IP In his last start against them. Indians lost four of his last six road starts.
Stroman is 0-2, 2.77 in his last four starts, 0-0, 1.29 in two starts (14 IP) vs Cleveland this year. Blue Jays won six of his last eight home starts. He is 1-0, 3.91 in four postseason starts.
Toronto had won six in row before losing Games 1-2 in Cleveland; they’re 3-5 against the Indians this year. Gibbons is 9-8 as a postseason manager, making it this year and last, his 8th/9th years as a manager. Jays lost in this round LY, their first playoff spot since their last world title, in 1993.
Cleveland won its last eight games; they’re in playoffs for 3rd time in last 15 years. Tribe was last in World Series in ’97; their last world title was in 1948. Francona won couple of World Series in Boston; he is 32-18 as a postseason manager.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks in this week’s Westgate Super Contest:

1) Chiefs (even) 704- W

2) Seahawks (-6.5) 450- L

3) Packers (-4.5) *448- L

4) Texans (-3) 424- T

5) Eagles (-2.5) 410- L

6) Falcons +6.5 (404)–*W

Season record: 11-24-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play: MON Pittsburg NHL -165