well, it's -3 now anyway. that said, it's (IMO) a losing proposition that I outlined a few days ago in one of the threads. paying double or triple juice catches up to you. every time you lose (which is 40%+ of the time) you pay extra juice. every time you win, you make nothing extra. you are betting (a lot) that it's going to hit exactly on one number. the risk/reward is not in balance.
this week, two games that closed at 2.5, 3 or 3.5 in the NFL:
NE -3 (-120) lost outright, costing the people that bought it down to -2.5 40%-45% juice instead of 20%.
IND -3.5 won by a few touchdowns.
look at something greater than a small sample size, and you see the long-term cost associated with this. penny wise and pound foolish.
generally speaking, it's only 10% more to buy from -2.5 to -2 which is cheap by comparison. a fair (but truly small) number of games end with a two-point differential - 3 games this year. 12 games this year were 3-point differentials, but few (if any) were lined +/- 3 points (none of the last six 3-point games landed on the number).
to my point, it's much more expensive to buy away from 3 than from two. today it's -130 to take NYJ down a half from -3 (-105) to -2.5. triple juice.
he alleges that the value of going from -2.5 to -2 is worth 10% (cheap according to him), but i agree with you that it's a losing proposition IN THE LONG TERM.
Calgary down 12 at half ! Glad I don't follow this crap league. Typical Seabass spin advertises he went 5-2 on sunday but forgets to mention he was 1-2 on his top three 100* plays. Whenever he has a bad stretch you can count on alot of 200* or 300* plays, I just expected it to be on MNF, not CFL
early bird catches the worm...dont know what u guys were waiting on?
I got nyj -2 n the morning
some were waiting cuz some got -1 @ 1:15 pm(saw it on 4 different sportsbooks)(pinnacle, beted, jamaica and heritage) of course this line has been fluctuating madly all day. By 2:30 it was back up to 3 or 3.5
But hey nice job and really classy laughing at the fact that some don't have the best line. Since I have a better line than you should I be laughing at you? I won't because you already made a fool of yourself.
Good luck tonight!!
Zags
