Karl Garrett
Sunday comp play winner on the NY Giants.
Only game in town on Monday is this Green Bay-Minnesota showdown featuring Brett Favre against his former team.
We all know the back-story, and there is one thing I can tell you about this game, and that is, it is going to go OVER the total.
Let's start with the fact that 8 of the last 9 times these teams have played in the Twin Cities, they have gone OVER the posted price.
Let's continue with the fact that both teams have played HIGH in 2 of their 3 games thus far this season.
The Packers are still figuring out their new 3-4 defensive scheme, and chances the Vikes burn them a few times seem good to me.
Likewise, the Vikings defense has not been as stout as it was last season.
This game has OVER written all over it.
5♦ OVER
Sunday comp play winner on the NY Giants.
Only game in town on Monday is this Green Bay-Minnesota showdown featuring Brett Favre against his former team.
We all know the back-story, and there is one thing I can tell you about this game, and that is, it is going to go OVER the total.
Let's start with the fact that 8 of the last 9 times these teams have played in the Twin Cities, they have gone OVER the posted price.
Let's continue with the fact that both teams have played HIGH in 2 of their 3 games thus far this season.
The Packers are still figuring out their new 3-4 defensive scheme, and chances the Vikes burn them a few times seem good to me.
Likewise, the Vikings defense has not been as stout as it was last season.
This game has OVER written all over it.
5♦ OVER
Dominic Fazzini
My complimentary selection on the Chargers for Sunday night's game turned into a big bust, but picking the total in tonight's game should be an easy winner!
Both the Packers and the Vikings have offenses that can light up the scoreboard. Green Bay does most of its damage through the air, while Minnesota has one of the NFL's most dangerous weapons in running back Adrian Peterson.
That doesn't mean these offenses are one-dimensional, though. Both teams can find numerous ways to move the ball down the field.
The over has been the way to go in 12 of the last 18 times these teams have met, especially when they play in Minnesota, as the number has went over the total in seven of the past nine games. The points are going to pile up again tonight. Take the over.
4♦ GREEN BAY-MINNESOTA OVER
My complimentary selection on the Chargers for Sunday night's game turned into a big bust, but picking the total in tonight's game should be an easy winner!
Both the Packers and the Vikings have offenses that can light up the scoreboard. Green Bay does most of its damage through the air, while Minnesota has one of the NFL's most dangerous weapons in running back Adrian Peterson.
That doesn't mean these offenses are one-dimensional, though. Both teams can find numerous ways to move the ball down the field.
The over has been the way to go in 12 of the last 18 times these teams have met, especially when they play in Minnesota, as the number has went over the total in seven of the past nine games. The points are going to pile up again tonight. Take the over.
4♦ GREEN BAY-MINNESOTA OVER
There seems to be more than a few handicappers lately suggesting that we buy 1/2 points on certain lines - most recently DeMarco adamant that we buy the half point with Minnesota regardless if the line is 3.5, 4 or 4.5.
Unfortunately this is not sound logic - not specific to this game but taken on the whole.
While I do see merit in buying from 3.5 to 3 (usually -135), it's still a very expensive proposition. Paying triple juice, betting that it will be exactly a 3-point game doesn't compensate you from a risk-reward perspective. Yes, you get "saved" occasionally, but 40%-50% of the time (when you lose) you are paying a fortune. When you win, it's irrelevant, but it catches up to you very quickly when you're on the wrong side.
Let's assume that you are extremely lucky and win 60% of the time:
100 games with a line of 3.5
60 wins = +6000
40 losses = -4400
Net = +1600
100 games with a line of 3.5, buying a half point
60 wins = +6000
40 losses = -5400
Net = +600
You need eight games (of 40) to be exactly 3 points to make profit over holding at 3.5 - even with seven pushes, you are still behind the +1600 from earlier.
60 wins = +6000
33 losses = -4455
7 pushes = 0
Net = +1545
It's not nearly that frequent.
Sure as shit, it will be a 3-point game tonight, but the odds are against it. One game yesterday was -3.5, and Tennessee (the favored team) lost by 20 - costing the 1/2 point buyers $135 on their $100 wagers.
Unfortunately this is not sound logic - not specific to this game but taken on the whole.
While I do see merit in buying from 3.5 to 3 (usually -135), it's still a very expensive proposition. Paying triple juice, betting that it will be exactly a 3-point game doesn't compensate you from a risk-reward perspective. Yes, you get "saved" occasionally, but 40%-50% of the time (when you lose) you are paying a fortune. When you win, it's irrelevant, but it catches up to you very quickly when you're on the wrong side.
Let's assume that you are extremely lucky and win 60% of the time:
100 games with a line of 3.5
60 wins = +6000
40 losses = -4400
Net = +1600
100 games with a line of 3.5, buying a half point
60 wins = +6000
40 losses = -5400
Net = +600
You need eight games (of 40) to be exactly 3 points to make profit over holding at 3.5 - even with seven pushes, you are still behind the +1600 from earlier.
60 wins = +6000
33 losses = -4455
7 pushes = 0
Net = +1545
It's not nearly that frequent.
Sure as shit, it will be a 3-point game tonight, but the odds are against it. One game yesterday was -3.5, and Tennessee (the favored team) lost by 20 - costing the 1/2 point buyers $135 on their $100 wagers.
For Saturday's and Sunday's: why don't we get people to chip in for this?:
<TABLE class=PackageTable id=HandicapperContent_Repeater1__ctl5__ctl0_PackageRepeater__ctl2_PackageViewer_ShowHide cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR class=PackageParamRow><TD width="60%">1 DAY TOTAL ACCESS </TD><TD vAlign=top align=right width="26%">
</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right width="14%">$55 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=PackageText width="100%" colSpan=3></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=PackageTable id=HandicapperContent_Repeater1__ctl5__ctl0_PackageRepeater__ctl3_PackageViewer_ShowHide cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR class=PackageParamRow><TD width="60%">7 DAYS OF TOTAL ACCESS </TD><TD vAlign=top align=right width="26%">
</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right width="14%">$229 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=PackageText width="100%" colSpan=3></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=PackageTable id=HandicapperContent_Repeater1__ctl5__ctl0_PackageRepeater__ctl4_PackageViewer_ShowHide cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR class=PackageParamRow><TD width="60%">30 DAYS OF TOTAL ACCESS </TD><TD vAlign=top align=right width="26%">
</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right width="14%">$749 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=PackageText width="100%" colSpan=3></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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IMPORTANT NOTE
on saturdays and sundays if we were to get 5 people together to buy the "one day of total access" for $55 we would get EVERY SINGLE capper's plays from atsedgedotcom. Why have we not done this b/4? I am in for throwing $11 towards getting every capper's plays from the site cuz we would get about 14 cappers if I read this package correctly
anyone esle want to do this?
(<)<(<)<:drink::toast:
on saturdays and sundays if we were to get 5 people together to buy the "one day of total access" for $55 we would get EVERY SINGLE capper's plays from atsedgedotcom. Why have we not done this b/4? I am in for throwing $11 towards getting every capper's plays from the site cuz we would get about 14 cappers if I read this package correctly
anyone esle want to do this?
(<)<(<)<:drink::toast:
i'm in for $11 - if whoever agrees to buy is willing to e-mail the picks to me and the other eight guys as soon as they are available. i would be fine with five guys total (to make it easier), but i still would like to get the picks directly to me via e-mail.
NOTE: this DOES NOT include DeMarco or Valentino. I guess Redd and Fazzini makes it worth it for me though.
well that still isn't too bad considering that we would get:
nover
benton
lang (for fading purposes)
garrett
maxwell
jordan
redd
gordon
cannon
weston
fazinni
then hopefully we could get some ppl to pick up the slack and get the syndicated analysts
i would still be in for $11 to see all those guys' picks
sorry for requesting mr cork, but have you seen Bobby Maxwell's 800 unit play on tonight's game?
i would have to think he's on vikes as well.
by the way
thanks for everything you do....i was wondering if you wanted us to assist see the request/comp page about sat's and sun's about what sam and i are thinking...if we do $11 each b/n 5 guys we could get all the guys except the "syndicated analysts" and then maybe we could get some ppl to get the syndicated analysts
sorry for the clutter and thanks mr cork!
i would have to think he's on vikes as well.
by the way
thanks for everything you do....i was wondering if you wanted us to assist see the request/comp page about sat's and sun's about what sam and i are thinking...if we do $11 each b/n 5 guys we could get all the guys except the "syndicated analysts" and then maybe we could get some ppl to get the syndicated analysts
sorry for the clutter and thanks mr cork!
IC's daily comp video
IC's daily comp video: he's on the under in MNF tonight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXP23HuZT0Y
IC's daily comp video: he's on the under in MNF tonight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXP23HuZT0Y
