wunderdog
WUNDERDOG NCAAF PICKS FOR THIS ENTIRE 1st WEEK:
I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play.
Game: North Texas at Ball State (Thursday 9/03 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Ball State -17 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 59.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Ball State Cardinals put themselves on the map last season winning 12 games and a national ranking. The Cards lost a lot on offense and have just four starters returning. But, that includes RB MiQuale Lewis who ran for 1,736 yards last year and 22 TDs, and WR Briggs Orsbon who caught 68 balls a year ago. The Cardinals will be breaking in a new QB, so I'd look for the offense to be dominated by Lewis running a lot here, especially against a poor North Texas defense. The strength of the Cardinals may be on the defensive front line as they have all four starters from a good unit coming back. North Texas has gone just 3-21 over their last three years and went 1-11 a year ago. In the early going last season, they were especially bad, losing each of their first five games by 30 points or more. Even with a lot of returnees, there is just such a mountain to climb here. Despite the losses, Ball State is still light years ahead of this North Texas team and I like them to run away with this one. I also like the UNDER here. The Mean Green will also be breaking in a new QB in this one, so both teams could be pounding the ball and passing short. With two brand new QB's I expect a conservative approach in the opener, and a lot of running. I have a system that features early-season games with inexperienced QBs that has gone UNDER to the tune of 33-16 the past five years. I like this one to come in under 60 points.
Game: Utah State at Utah (Thursday 9/03 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Utah -20.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Utah was a perfect 13-0 a year ago. Despite losing a lot of talent to graduation, this is a team with a lot of depth and excellent recruiting every year. So the drop is not a huge one. They have to replace the best QB in school history but there are three viable candidates, and the offense returns many talented skill players at RB and WR. The defense is good and loaded with talent, especially at linebacker. It will be the defense that carries the team this time around. We go from one of the Mountain West's annual powers, to one of the WAC's annual losers, and the weak sister in the state. The Aggies finished just 3-9 a year ago and have a lot of returning players, but the problem is that the talent level here vs. the Utes is a very wide gap. That disparity is quite big as evidenced by the fact that the last five years these teams have met, the scores add up to 219-41 for Utah, or an average win of 34 points per game. There have been three games decided by 40+ points in the last five years. Utah is the choice in this one.
Game: Tulsa at Tulane (Friday 9/04 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Tulsa -13.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Green Wave have now completed their sixth-consecutive losing season, and last year was perhaps their worst at 2-10. What made it worse was the way that they finished the season with eight straight losses. The offense has some key components back from last year, but how much better is this team going to get? They gained just 221.2 yards a game last year, scoring just 16.7 points per game. In their final two games they were outscored 101-13. The Green Wave defense remains in turmoil after allowing 40+ in six of their last eight games. For the third straight year, this team will have a new defensive coordinator, so anyone that has been around here for three years must be completely confused. Tulane is just 54-78 ATS as an underdog over the past fifteen years. Tulsa has become a constant figure in the Bowls with four straight appearances and 38 wins in the last four years. The Golden Hurricane have led the NCAA in total offense the last two years with their hurry-up tactics and no huddle offense. Despite a different offensive coordinator, I don't expect things to change much. All three of their talented wideouts are back, so expect this team to score again. Tulsa has the potential for a third straight Conference USA Title, and should be the better team by far on both sides of the ball and they'll get it done on the road here.
Game: Baylor at Wake Forest (Saturday 9/05 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Wake Forest -2 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Demon Deacons have certainly been more of a factor in the ACC the past few years than they had been in the past. The good news is that Riley Skinner returns at QB with an offense that has nine starters returning. This has been great news for teams in the past as those returning nine starters have been a perfect 25-0 the past three years playing an out-of-conference game in the first month of the season. They are 55-7 over the past decade. And with the line set low, this provides a very favorable situation for Wake. Jim Grobe has gotten it done here as they have 28 wins in his last three seasons at the helm. Baylor has not been a factor for a longtime in the Big-12 and won't be this season either, despite an exciting QB in Robert Griffin. He can't do it alone and Baylor has had a lot of key departures from a year ago. Griffin could find the going tough, especially early as his offensive line is going to need some time to develop. In week one, that just isn't likely to happen. I'll go with Wake Forest in this one.
Game: Western Michigan at Michigan (Saturday 9/05 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Michigan -11.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The first year for Michigan under Rich Rodriguez was certainly one full of adjustments. They had a horrible season. But his teams are noted for making big strides in year two, and he certainly has the supporting cast in place to do just that in 2009. The offense returns nine starters from last year's team. What does that mean in this game? Home favorites that return 9+ offensive starters that are playing a non-conference opponent during the first month of the season have been premier bets to win the game, having gone 25-0 the past three seasons and 55-7 the past ten seasons. That does not even begin to tell the whole story here. The last five years in this situation the games have been brutally lopsided as the team returning the nine offensive players has won by an average score of 37.5 to 14.8. That is a huge 22.7 points per game. That sets the stage for a Michigan blowout in this one. Michigan is a bit underrated right now, given their disastrous 2008 campaign. We'll take advantage of that and get them here at a line well below what it should be.
Game: San Jose State at U S C (Saturday 9/05 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on U S C -34 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The departure of one of the top QBs in the nation (Mark Sanchez) would leave most teams scrambling to find success the following year. But that simply has not been the case at USC. It's more like a yearly occurrence. The offense is loaded with playmakers, and the defense should be one of the top units in the country, if not the top. The Trojans have a veteran line to ease the transition. San Jose State has made strides, but the talent they face week-in and week-out pales in comparison to what they will see here in this one. Last year, they had one of the top defenses in the country, but against a lackluster schedule. The problem was that the three competent offenses they saw in Boise State, Nevada and Nebraska all burned them for an average of 36.3 ppg and this year's version isn't as talented. Offensively, they were held to 17 points or less in seven games, and that came against defenses that aren't even close to what they will face here. I would not be surprised to see the USC defense outscore the Spartan’s offense in this one. The Trojans are 29-17 ATS as a home favorite and 24-12 ATS in non-conference games under Pete Carroll. I like USC in a blowout.
Game: Nevada at Notre Dame (Saturday 9/05 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Notre Dame -14 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
It has been a long time since Notre Dame has been a player on the National scene. Could this be the year the Irish rise and become a player once again? It could be a special year for two reasons. The first is that the talent level and experience is the most promising in years. And the second is that the schedule is pretty easy. Outside of USC midway through the season, the Irish have a full slate of winnable games on the schedule and it starts with the Wolfpack from Nevada. This will be the first trip ever for a Wolfpack team into South Bend, and it could just add to the normal game one jitters. The Wolfpack can score with the best of them, but the problem is that they can't stop a competent offense. In their four biggest games last year, the defense surrendered 69 points to Missouri, 35 to Texas Tech, 42 to Maryland and 41 points to Boise State. That is an average of 47 ppg. Not only did they all result in losses, but they went 0-4 ATS as well. In the past 15 seasons, the Wolfpack have gone 27-48 ATS when allowing 28+ points and Notre Dame is sure to reach that threshold here. The Irish have a good enough defense to hold them down, but the Wolfpack just doesn't have any answers on defense. In the end, it will cost them. Irish get the win and cover here.
Game: Missouri vs. Illinois (Saturday 9/05 3:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Missouri +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Tigers lost a lot of talent, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a lot of talent left. They will certainly miss Chase Daniels at QB, but what they do have is an above-average running game that will assist the development of new QB Blaine Gabbert. The defense has certainly seen some potent offenses, so nothing they see from Illinois will shake them. New DC Dave Steckel has already made the necessary changes in discipline and schemes. Juice Williams will lead a dynamic attack for the Illini, but again, Missouri has seen the best QBs in the country, so this isn't going to be anything but business as usual. While everyone expects the Tigers' offense to take a giant step back, I think it will still be great, especially against the back seven of this Illini defense, which is not very good. Missou has won six of the last seven games between these two clubs and Illinois was 1-5 on the road last season. I'll take the points here and go with Missouri.
Game: U L Monroe at Texas (Saturday 9/05 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Texas -40.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Laying 40 points? Yeah - in this one, no problem. All you have to do is look at UL Monroe last season playing Mississippi and Auburn. Despite an offense that averaged nearly 30 ppg otherwise, they didn't net a single point in either of those games, while the defense surrendered 93 points! Now they have no QB and have to replace nearly their entire defensive line. It doesn’t help that they facing one of the top defenses, and one of the most explosive offenses in college football. Looking back at some games the Longhorns have played at home against Sun Belt teams provides further evidence that they can cover this big line. Here are four openers against Sun Belt teams: Texas won 52-10, 56-7, 60-3 and 65-0. This line is extremely high, but this Texas team has proven that it can deliver and cover against this type of opponent, and this may be the best Texas team of them all. Think the Longhorns will outgain the Warhawks by 200+ yards in this game? I think it's very, very likely to happen. If it does, it's a good sign as Texas is 44-11 ATS the past fifteen seasons when they accomplish that feat. I'd be surprised if UL Monroe can muster 14 points while Texas should score 60 or more. The Longhorns get the call here.
Game: San Diego State at U C L A (Saturday 9/05 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on U C L A -20 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Aztec's head coach Brady Hoke inherits a team that won just two games a year ago and suffered seven losses by 25 points or more. Outside of QB Brian Lindley, the talent level here is going to take the former Ball State coach time to develop and upgrade. This is a lacking team that has gotten blown-out on a weekly basis. The Mountain West has some good teams, but losing seven games by 25+ shows just how far they have to go. San Diego State had no preseason 1st team conference selections (in a lesser conference). They had just one that was chosen for the second team. Meanwhile the Bruins have 16 starters returning so the talent difference in this game is huge. UCLA will field one of the top defenses in the Pac-10, and that will be the deciding factor in this one. San Diego State scored 14 points or less in eight games a year ago. They averaged 9.8 points per game on the road where they went 2-4 ATS. When facing the top four teams in the conference, they lost by an average margin of 34.3 points per game. I don't see anything here that will change that. UCLA has gone 21-9 ATS in their last 30 non-conference home games. UCLA gets the call here
