Crazy Lou
Bonus Play
Though Rafael Nadal is missing from Wimbledon this year, it doesn't mean that Roger Federer will have an easy time going for his sixth title at the premier tennis event.
Roger Federer has a very realistic chance at regaining the No. 1 ranking in 2009 without having to defeat his arch rival Rafael Nadal. To Fed’s credit, he did best the Spaniard in straight sets at the Madrid masters event leading up to Roland Garros. The significance of that victory was minimized some as Nadal was coming off a marathon 2-hour match against Novak Djokovic in the semis, but the oddsmakers saw fit to lower Federer’s French Open odds from +1150 to +500.
I picked Federer to win his first ever French Open at +1150. The victory does not improve Federer’s chances at securing a sixth Wimbledon crown, but does figure to elevate his already confident mindset headed into Wimbledon.
Nadal pulls out of Wimbledon
As a tennis handicapper my heart sank a little when Rafael Nadal withdrew his name from Wimbledon ’09. You might think that it is counter intuitive for any Federer backer to lament Nadal’s absence, but not I.
Oddsmakers were quick to adjust for Nadal’s absence and re-priced Federer at -115 chalk, and Andy Murray was shifted from a +400 dog to +260. There was incredible value to be had in both of those bets, and it was quickly sucked dry by the absence of the prolific Spaniard. In reality, Nadal even at full strength would have had his hands full in Andy Murray’s side of the draw, but he commands an incredible amount of respect by the betting public and oddsmakers react accordingly.
There will be those that look to chip away at a potential Federer victory here with Rafa’s absence, but part of the game is conditioning, training, and adopting a sustainable style of play that will allow you to stay in the game long-term. Rafael Nadal has not done all three of those things, because even at 22 years of age he plays the most physically taxing style of tennis I have ever witnessed- he’s now starting to feel the effects of just that. Roger Federer, Andy Murray, whoever ultimately wins the 2009 Wimbledon Championship will have earned the title of champion, no asterisk required.
Gentlemen’s singles draw
The 14-time Grand Slam winner Roger Federer has a relatively favorable draw for the second straight Grand Slam. It should be noted that Federer withdrew from the Halle warm-up event due to exhaustion from the rollercoaster at Roland Garros. This is noteworthy because the only time Federer missed the Germany event in his career he went on to win the 2007 Wimbledon championship.
Roger is seeded at #1 with the removal of Nadal; on his half of the draw are names like Fernando Verdasco, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Ivo Karlovic and Robin Soderling (the man responsible for Nadal’s first ever defeat at RG and Federer’s first ever title). The Swiss does not figure to have any troubles reaching his 21st straight Grand Slam semi-final where he would likely square off against Fernando Verdasco. From there, I would expect Federer to win in 4 sets against the talented but wildly inconsistent 25 year old Spaniard.
Federer vs Murray
It would certainly not come close to matching the hype or history from last year’s dream match of Federer vs Nadal in their 5-set finals extravaganza, but Andy Murray is the one guy that has the ability to spoil the party. The 22 year old Scot has defeated Federer 4 of their last 5 meetings and boasts a 6-2 lifetime record against the 14 time Grand Slam champ. However, it should be noted that one of those Federer victories against Murray were at the US Open Finals, undoubtedly the biggest match the two have had. The score-line for that US Open Finals amounted to a straight set victory for Federer.
Since that time, Andy Murray has polished his game and even captured his first title on grass preparing for Wimbledon. One of the biggest improvements to Murray’s game has been his mental poise, his ability to keep cool and calm under pressure, he will need to tap into that reservoir for everything it’s worth if he is to usurp the Wimbledon crown from Federer.
In the end, wise man once said experience trumps all. If a wise man didn’t actually say that, I’m going to coin it right now, speaking of coins I will be investing some myself on Federer to snatch his 15th Grand Slam Title and eclipse Pete Sampras once and for all.
The pick: Federer -115
