Dallas -6.5 for 6 units
I think they blow phily out. Cowboys have a lot of pro bowlers that are in their prime.
I also think the crowd plays a factor tonight for phily on 3rd downs.
I am 4-1 this weekend. I should be 5-0 but last night game was fucked up.
YTD 7-2 up 9.6 units
I think they blow phily out. Cowboys have a lot of pro bowlers that are in their prime.
I also think the crowd plays a factor tonight for phily on 3rd downs.
I am 4-1 this weekend. I should be 5-0 but last night game was fucked up.
YTD 7-2 up 9.6 units
powerz - i know your post was well-intentioned. just didnt think mine would be taken literally. didnt mean to offend.
bullets - despite my tongue in cheek post, there is always going to be something said for taking public perception into account when looking at a slate of games. unfortunately, mis-applying it to every game that pops up on the board leaves too many with busted bankrolls and no confidence in what they are betting every night. there are a handful of guys here who have a great 'feel' for avoiding a truly public approach ... yet in an almost paradoxical way, they are anti-public and very sharp without ever mentioning the term 'public' with either a positive or negative connotation. on the flip side, so many go out of their way mindfu.cking themselves 6 ways into next week trying to be sharp ... and they don't have the positive return to show for their hard work. books don't beat players. players too often beat themselves.
steak - good to see you around again ... one of my favorite vets. and i mean that with legit respect.
bullets - despite my tongue in cheek post, there is always going to be something said for taking public perception into account when looking at a slate of games. unfortunately, mis-applying it to every game that pops up on the board leaves too many with busted bankrolls and no confidence in what they are betting every night. there are a handful of guys here who have a great 'feel' for avoiding a truly public approach ... yet in an almost paradoxical way, they are anti-public and very sharp without ever mentioning the term 'public' with either a positive or negative connotation. on the flip side, so many go out of their way mindfu.cking themselves 6 ways into next week trying to be sharp ... and they don't have the positive return to show for their hard work. books don't beat players. players too often beat themselves.
steak - good to see you around again ... one of my favorite vets. and i mean that with legit respect.
billbeater - with quadruple reverse line movement, dallas woulda covered. alas, i gotta take the L for tonight. on to the next game. those on eagles had the right side. cant give up 37 and feel bad about not covering.
bullets - not sure what youre looking to get answered. posted some stuff re: an innate anti-public approach. it has its place. its just egregiously mis-applied seemingly every night. gl.
bullets - not sure what youre looking to get answered. posted some stuff re: an innate anti-public approach. it has its place. its just egregiously mis-applied seemingly every night. gl.
bullets -
not sure what my 'way' is? i guess handicapping the game on the field? i dont know what to say my man. just learned from some savvy vets and longtime winners over the years that truly trusting your own stuff is the key to making confident bets and not getting too high with winning streaks and too low with losing streaks. this shit can eat you alive if you dont look at each game with a clear head or if you worry too much about what other people think. at times, we're all guilty as bettors of trying to get too cute and get involved with games they have no business taking a piece of just because they try to read into something thats not there. its not about a right or wrong way. that silly. but confident, objective bettors tend to have the most success. wishy washy, fickle, easily swayed guys drive themselves nuts trying to go against a grain that exists only in their own head. if guys are able to draw something useful from something i post, thats always a good thing because thats the purpose of the site. if they want to dismiss it because it doesn't have a forum record attached to it, thats not a problem either. in a forum of thousands, its unrealistic to think that everyone is going to read one another's posts and say 'wow, great stuff ... thanks'. life doesnt work that way. everyone has something different theyre trying to get out of the forum, either posting or reading.
not sure what my 'way' is? i guess handicapping the game on the field? i dont know what to say my man. just learned from some savvy vets and longtime winners over the years that truly trusting your own stuff is the key to making confident bets and not getting too high with winning streaks and too low with losing streaks. this shit can eat you alive if you dont look at each game with a clear head or if you worry too much about what other people think. at times, we're all guilty as bettors of trying to get too cute and get involved with games they have no business taking a piece of just because they try to read into something thats not there. its not about a right or wrong way. that silly. but confident, objective bettors tend to have the most success. wishy washy, fickle, easily swayed guys drive themselves nuts trying to go against a grain that exists only in their own head. if guys are able to draw something useful from something i post, thats always a good thing because thats the purpose of the site. if they want to dismiss it because it doesn't have a forum record attached to it, thats not a problem either. in a forum of thousands, its unrealistic to think that everyone is going to read one another's posts and say 'wow, great stuff ... thanks'. life doesnt work that way. everyone has something different theyre trying to get out of the forum, either posting or reading.
Great post. Agree 100% I see so many newbies jumping on a Side based only on "Vegas needs this Side, logic be damned." or "Thats a Public side, I'm betting the Sharp side." With the Public side being considered bets that have more than 60% of the bettors on it. Covers has a consensus of bets, year in and year out public plays go 50% on average, no edge betting against perceived public plays. With Philly covering tonight the so called Public went 4-3 for the week.
... to expand on this, getting caught up in the mindfu.ck of 'the books need this or that' also causes bettors to mis-direct the blame (and credit) for their losses (and wins). youll often see losses rationalized by the 'well the public has to win sometimes' comments. maybe, just maybe the game was handicapped incorrectly. or maybe, just maybe a bad decision was made to get involved in the first place. as for this particular monday nighter, its easy to put my head on the pillow and simply say 'i mis-capped this one'. because thats exactly what happened. i mis-capped it. doesnt matter who the books needed. who this person was on. that person was on. whatever. there was nothing about dallas that would have been the right side in that game. even if dallas woulda front-doored the eagles with a late FG or something, the bet would have been a poor one on my part. why? because philly was equal to dallas on the field tonight. my capping was off. dallas snuck out a win in a game where defense was non-existent.
I was on Dallas last night and it was a bad play.
Had I watched Philly play before last night I might have gone with them.
I watch HBO's Hard Knocks with Dallas and felt that with so many pro bowlers on one team the could really run away with the game last night.
Philly looked very good. Their O line was almost perfect. To give that kind of time to McNab is key to success. I really thought the Cowboys D-line was going to make more plays but they were blocked out.
Oh well on to next week
Had I watched Philly play before last night I might have gone with them.
I watch HBO's Hard Knocks with Dallas and felt that with so many pro bowlers on one team the could really run away with the game last night.
Philly looked very good. Their O line was almost perfect. To give that kind of time to McNab is key to success. I really thought the Cowboys D-line was going to make more plays but they were blocked out.
Oh well on to next week
And whose to say Vegas hung a good number? Early in the year, there are some weak lines and many people spot them and pound them. If that's the public, then so be it. Heck, even Ed Hochuli makes mistakes. People think just because Vegas hung a number, it is the right number.
