MLB Playoffs - why is CLE favored over NYY for series?

[JavyBaez9]

Cleveland not even favored in game 1.
so they are essentially favored in games 2/3
They are favored, albeit slightly, in the series with Bieber/Cole advantage and game 1 at home notwithstanding

Who will start game 3 for the Yankees? I don't follow them closely enough to know. Happ for like 3 innings and then bullpen game?

 

[CHOPTALK]

Yeah it’s weird .

Good catch .

 

[CHOPTALK]

Unless my Judge/Stanton theory not being good till round 2 thing is legit

 

[HarryCaray]

Who will start game 3 for the Yankees? I don't follow them closely enough to know. Happ for like 3 innings and then bullpen game?

I guess. Their bullpen is legit though.

 

[HarryCaray]

Unless my Judge/Stanton theory not being good till round 2 thing is legit

They’ve both been back over a week

 

[CHOPTALK]

They’ve both been back over a week

yea but far from 100%
im grasping for straws
I can’t give you a good answer to your question.

I don’t believe the short series thing is enough reason to have that much of a discrepancy in the World Series odds

 

[HarryCaray]

It’s telling me one (or more) of four things is true.

1. Cleveland game 1 has value
2. Yankees for series has value
3. Yankees to win pennant is a shit line
4. Cleveland to win pennant has value

Probably a lot of #3 going on. They have to win this coin flip series, them presumably a series against the rays in which they’d be slight dogs probably...just to get to the alcs

 

[CHOPTALK]

A lot of #2
and a lot of #3

I think the line for the series is about right but to win the World Series that’s a terrible line .

 

[HarryCaray]

Maybe the way to play it is take Cleveland for game 1, then if it wins bet Yankees on the adjusted series line
idk

 

[HarryCaray]

A lot of #2
and a lot of #3

I think the line for the series is about right but to win the World Series that’s a terrible line .

that’s to win the al penant
not the ws

still a shitty line, it’ll be like 3 coin flips.

 

[Louie12]

the more i think about this the weirder it is. cant think of any other reasons

honestly the better question is why is new york favored over cleveland to win it all? cleveland is the better ball club

 

[JavyBaez9]

the more i think about this the weirder it is. cant think of any other reasons

honestly the better question is why is new york favored over cleveland to win it all? cleveland is the better ball club

I've always thought futures were based on what people were betting, not true odds...

When the Cubs were terrible, there odds to win were still pretty low because every idiot out there in Vegas put $20 or $100 on it just for shits and giggles.

Lots of people think the Yankees are always good.

 

[FairWarning]

Bieber 1.23 ERA at home. I don't trust Cole. If Yankees win game 1, Cleveland is done though.

Pretty much. Ramirez may be the hottest hitter in baseball. The white Sox were lucky to get the 7 seed vs Oakland instead of either of these two.

 

[HarryCaray]

Yankees are now as high as -125 tonight against Bieber and are still only -110 for the series...

 

[exploited17]

It is honestly not that difficult to understand.
Any team especially with close or better pitching can win an individual series(especially three games)
Consistantly winning series after series which are longer requires a better more talented proven team
The disparity is a bit bigger than you might expect but is probably because the Yankees are heavily bet to advance further

 

[theMadMan]

NYY basically co-favorites to win the AL penant (around +275) and Cleveland is around +600.
But Yankees are dogs on the series line? I'm seeing -103

What gives? :think2:

Yankees are -116 and The Current FAVORITE to win the series


and the game is is basically even tonight -110 // -108

S0 it all makes sense to me

 

[CHOPTALK]

The play tonight is under 6.5

 

[HarryCaray]

Yankees are -116 and The Current FAVORITE to win the series


and the game is is basically even tonight -110 // -108

S0 it all makes sense to me

You’re missing the point. The pennant lines indicate a big discrepancy in overall talent. So why is the series even?
If you say it is due to a 3 game series and Cleveland advantage in top of rotation pitching, then why isn’t Cleveland favored at home with their #1 pitcher?

If you say it’s cause NYy 2/3 pitchers are weak...again why are they cofavorites to win the pennant?

 

[HarryCaray]

It is honestly not that difficult to understand.
Any team especially with close or better pitching can win an individual series(especially three games)
Consistantly winning series after series which are longer requires a better more talented proven team
The disparity is a bit bigger than you might expect but is probably because the Yankees are heavily bet to advance further

I understand it. Essentially it means one line is wrong (game, series, or one of their futures). Just trying to start a conversation about which one is wrong and how to take advantage of it. Forgive me. I will start 2 debate threads and a covid thread as penance.

 

[PoundFoolish]

The play tonight is under 6.5

better luck today